2009 record: 14-2, Lost in Super Bowl Key Stats: Turnover Ratio: +2 Sack Differential: +24 Point Differential: +109 Coming In: T Adam Terry, G Andy Alleman Going Out: DB Marlin Jackson, DE Raheem Brock, G Ryan Lilja, CB Tim Jennings, LB Tyjuan Hagler, LB Freddy Keiaho, QB Jim Sorgi, K Matt Stover Key Rookies: DE Jerry Hughes, CB/RS Ray Fisher, LB Pat Angerer Offense QB: Peyton Manning remains the most valuable player to his team in the league, a status he?s capably and comfortably held for most of this century. It?s really quite simple--Manning is in charge of the offense, moreso than any QB in the modern era. Manning calls the plays and freely (and annoyingly) makes histrionic gestures to modify plays and make sure everyone is on the same page. He rarely errs, and he?s smart enough to throw it away or quickly check to another option when he does. One of the most accurate passers in NFL history, Manning can consistently put the ball precisely where the receiver needs it and the defender can?t get it, and he can do that with excellent range. Manning?s highest completion percentage yet at 68.8% came in 2009, and his leadership is exceptional. That?s not to say he?s infallible. We all saw chinks in the armor a little last season, with the biggest coming in the Super Bowl. Teams have caught on to the pre-snap antics and have countered with tactics of their own, showing several looks to try to keep him guessing. Despite being pressured less than any other QB, his 16 INTs in 2009 were the highest in 8 years. Some of that stems from his increasing late-game reliance on Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne, but he missed a few more reads than in the past. At 34 and looking increasingly un-athletic as he ages, Peyton just might be getting to the point where he starts to decline ever so slightly. His legendary durability can?t last forever either, though because he has such a quick release and exceptional pocket awareness it?s more likely he gets hurt in some minor fluke injury. The Colts are praying that he makes every start for the 13th consecutive year, because they?re in deep trouble without Manning. Curtis Painter looked very much like a greenhorn 6th round rookie in limited duty, and his inability to handle pressure appears chronic. The Colts have only carried two QBs for years now, but a birdie tells me they like Drew Willy just enough that he?ll stick on the practice squad as the #3. RB: There is a wide gulf between potential talent and actual results here. Joseph Addai is a versatile, shifty back that can make the first man miss and has good wiggle in the open field. Or at least he flashes those skills, because too often he seems indecisive and unable to break the big runs. His longest effort last year went just 21 yards, and his 3.8 yards per carry is not good enough. Some of that goes on the line in front of him and the pathetic blocking effort of the tight ends and wide receivers (more on those later), but the former 1st rounder just has not been the dynamic rusher they expected or need. He gains some of that back by being an exceptional receiver, and the Colts love using him on swing passes. Addai also thrives on draw plays, in part because of his great patience but also how well Peyton Manning sells it. Donald Brown, their first round pick in 2009, struggled in his rookie season. He often looked unsure of where to take the run and a little too intimidated by what might be waiting for him, or as one opposing LB told me late last year, ?That boy don?t want no piece of gettin? smacked?. To be fair to Brown, he was suffering from a chest injury, but tentative running tends to be a problem that doesn?t get healed. Brown also had issues in pass protection and seemed uncomfortable with the precise timing of the pass offense, which struck me as bizarre considering I know Brown to be one of the most intelligent hombres in the league. I suspect he?ll be better in his second season, but it?s hard to imagine him proving worthy of the 1st round pick. Mike Hart is the #3 and is far and away the toughest back on the team despite being the smallest player on the roster. Blessed with huge thighs and relentless drive forward, he is the best short-yardage (intentional short yardage, that is) back and is also the best pass blocker of the group. Hart could see more opportunities this year if Brown continues to struggle. There are always the caveats that Hart is reliably injury-prone and one of the slowest backs in the league. Speedy Devin Moore should stick as the 4th back, which the Colts seldom put on the active roster. That?s still a meatier role than fullback, which the Colts have basically eradicated from Lucas Oil Field. WR/TE: The Colts have talent in spades here. Reggie Wayne has stepped from Marvin Harrison?s shadow and become a legit star in his own right. Long, lithe, and blessed with some of the best body control you?ll ever see, Wayne can run all the routes and make all the catches. Bagging 100 receptions last season for 1300 yards and 10 TDs, Wayne clearly established himself as an elite weapon. He should post similar yardage and TD totals this year, but a return to the 100-catch plateau seems unlikely. That?s because of the development of the young talent around him. Pierre Garcon stepped up as the field-stretching threat, formerly Wayne?s domain. His deceptive acceleration and ability to change gears on the fly make him a dangerous downfield threat that can get open against a variety of coverages. The more the season progressed, the more the Colts used him almost exclusively in that capacity, as Garcon?s effectiveness greatly diminishes the closer he is to the line of scrimmage. Big and tough, he is the best run blocker of anyone outside the interior OL, though he can be a tad overaggressive and take dumb penalties. Austin Collie tied for the lead amongst rookies with 60 catches, many of them on intermediate routes as the tertiary read. That?s a valuable role in this offense, and it fits Collie like a glove. He?s blessed with reliable hands and good feet, though quickness is not his calling card. Anthony Gonzalez is the wild card of the group. The 2007 1st round pick blew out his knee in the opener last year and saw Garcon and Collie step up capably. Gonzalez has more talent than either guy, but he must be fully recovered and re-establish his place in the offense. Two years ago he was one of the best third bananas in the league and an excellent 3rd down target with enough speed and elusiveness to shed the label ?possession? receiver. Now he presents an interesting case of depth; he?ll have to earn his old role back, but if he?s healthy that shouldn?t be a problem. Whomever winds up 4th on the depth chart (best bet: Collie) will represent the top fourth receiver in the NFL and could conceivably pull down 40 catches. Dallas Clark is in the midst of a highly productive mind meld with Peyton Manning. One of the top receiving tight ends in the league, last season Clark picked up the slack of the on-the-job-training of the young wideouts, pulling down 100 catches--a staggering number for a tight end. Insanely effective split out in the slot, Clark runs exceptional routes and always makes the right coverage adjustment. He is the motion man that typically tips off the coverage to Manning, and his precision in that capacity is invaluable to the offense. That?s good, because as an in-line tight end and run blocker he?s almost completely worthless. Clark is the only real option at tight end; the Colts have drafted a surprising number of tight ends that are barely passable as #3 guys. Tom Santi and Jacob Tamme shared the #2 role last year with almost dead even ineffectiveness. They?ll fight with Gijon Robinson, who the team uses as an H-back and even wide receiver in certain sets, and rookie 5th rounder Brody Eldridge, for the right to catch 10 or so passes and maybe make one effective run block per game. I can?t overstate how pathetic the run blocking from the Colts tight ends has become, but as of yet it hasn?t been enough of a burden to address. OL: GM Bill Polian pinned the Super Bowl loss squarely on this unit, and there is no question the OL is the weakest part of the offense. Changes have been made, but this is still a legit concern. Left to right, the likely starters are Charlie Johnson, Mike Pollak, Jeff Saturday, Kyle DeVan, and Ryan Diem. Only Saturday would rate as an above-average talent, and he?s beyond his prime. Diem is a capable starter that doesn?t get beat inside, but his run blocking regressed in 2009. Johnson was an improvement over Tony Ugoh at left tackle, but that is more an indictment of how lousy Ugoh played than anything Johnson has done. Newcomer Adam Terry could steal a starting spot, but he is best served as a swing backup. Terry offers more snarl and solid experience. Ugoh will likely remain as a backup and will get a shot at moving inside, but his lack of lower body strength and poor knee bend don?t portend well at guard. Pollak is a converted center, and close observation reveals a guy clearly playing out of position. He and DeVan are the lightest guard duo in the league, barely 600 pounds combined, and they play that way too. Both are better in pass protection, and they work well with Saturday to pick up interior blitzes and stunts. But they struggled in the Super Bowl and have not fared so well against 3-4 fronts, and the lack of run blocking surge is a real problem. To that end, the Colts imported Andy Alleman, a bulldog that can play guard or center and is a run blocking specialist. He could edge out one of the starters if he proves capable in keeping Manning upright and comfortable. Young Jaimie Thomas provides beefy depth, though he remains a project in training. Saturday very nearly left before last year, and at 35 he is nearing the end of a strong career. One of the most intelligent players in the NFL, he and Manning work in concert as well as any C/QB duo since Bradshaw and Webster. Undersized but feisty, Saturday consistently wins the leverage battles and demonstrates great technique. He rarely misses a line call and commands respect from both his peers and the guys he competes against. The Colts are praying he can squeeze one more solid year out of his aging body. Given the scheme and how he takes care of himself, he should be the least of worries up front. Defense DL: The starting ends are perhaps the best 1-2 punch in the league. Dwight Freeney is an elite talent still playing at the top of his game. His super-human quickness and incredible first step make him a terror rushing the passer off the edge. Freeney has mastered using his lack of size as an asset, staying lower than the tall tackles can effectively reach down and getting into their pads before they can extend their arms. His spin move is lethal and he sets up his moves like a chess master. Freeney is also remarkably consistent, rarely getting blanked in the sack department and never taking a play off. His counterpart is Robert Mathis, who isn?t quite as dynamic but is still eminently effective. Despite being about 30 pounds lighter than most ends at just 240 pounds, Mathis is surprisingly effective against the run. But his calling card is rushing the passer and forcing turnovers, and he does that as well as any DE in the league. Because Freeney commands so much attention on the other side, Mathis often gets one-on-one matchups and he?s simply too quick for most right tackles. The Colts let Raheem Brock go, and hope to replace him with first round pick Jerry Hughes. Brock played a lot as an integral part of the rotation, keeping the starting ends fresh. They should consider themselves lucky if Hughes can put up the same 3.5 sacks and 25 tackles, though I am admittedly more pessimistic than most on the speedy TCU product. Brock had the versatility to play either side but also inside, something Hughes has yet to prove and a tool which the Colts are now sorely lacking. Behind Hughes, Keyunta Dawson represents the depth. Coach Jim Caldwell is very hopeful that the existing group of interior linemen can raise their level of play. They need to, because they are a bad combination of undersized and not very quick. Daniel Muir looks a lot beefier than he plays, though he does a nice job of slipping blocks and chasing down the ball...from behind. He and fellow returning starter Antonio Johnson went 11 consecutive games without recording a tackle for loss, an inconceivable drought. Johnson is too passive and seldom does more than just occupy a blocker. There was no interior pass rush to speak of other than reserve Eric Foster, who showed a little acumen at twisting with Mathis. Foster was the most active of the DTs, but the coaches never seemed comfortable using him as more than a secondary rotation player. Second-year player Fili Moala will be given every chance to win a starting job, and if he demonstrates the physicality and aggressiveness he showed at USC, he?ll earn it. He struggled with the gap scheme as a rookie, but early OTA reports say he?s vastly improved. How well that translates to the field could be the difference between this line being passable against the run instead of terrible once again. Rookie Ricardo Matthews has the physical trappings of a good 3-technique Cover-2 DT, with quick feet and hands and a proclivity for beating the blockers to the spot. He could get some run in nickel packages. LB: Schematic fit is the key here. Gary Brackett starts in the middle, flanked by Philip Wheeler and Clint Session. They are easily the lightest starting trio in the league; Wheeler is the biggest of the group, and he?s 6?2? and plays at about 240, at least 5 pounds of which is hair. In the Cover-2 base defense the premium is on speed and agility, and this trio provides that. Brackett is the leader and the best of the troika, which led the Colts to overpay to keep him as a free agent. He is a very sound tackler and is seldom out of position in the zone coverage. Flowing from hash to hash, Brackett does a fine job of reading QB eyes and receiver routes, making him one of the best LBs in the league in pass defense. If the pass gets completed in his stead, he quickly terminates the play. But he almost never makes plays moving forward, and that?s a problem that exacerbates the issues against the run with the D-line. Brackett makes most of his tackles in run defense at least 5 yards from the line, rendering him more of a garbage man than a clock cleaner. There is real value in that he almost never misses a tackle and almost never gets caught in traffic, but teams ran up the gut at will in part because Brackett is a read-and-react guy in a read-and-react scheme. Wheeler came from Georgia Tech with the rep for being a thumper, and he is the biggest hitter of the group. He is the best run stuffer of the LBs and does a nice job of slipping inside the tight end to help crash the off-tackle runs or string the play further outside. Wheeler isn?t as quick as the typical Colts LB, but what really limits him is his inability to get off blocks. Pass defense isn?t his specialty either; Wheeler has just one pass deflection in two full seasons and doesn?t drop very well for a guy his size. Session is better in coverage, though some of that is a function of where he lines up--he starts plays deeper than any Cover-2 LB I?ve seen. That inhibits his attacking the run (notice a theme?), though like Brackett he seldom misses a tackle or overruns the play. The depth took a hit with the departure of Freddy Keaiho. Tyjuan Hagler remains but was already being usurped by Wheeler, plus he?s coming off a nasty torn biceps injury that might not be fully healed. Ramon Humber started a couple of games and showed a missile-like ability to close on the ball, but he is undersized even for this undersized defense. Rookie Pat Angerer is Brackett?s eventual successor and will see reps based on how quickly he can adjust from Iowa to Indianapolis. DB: The safeties are the strength of the back four. Antoine Bethea and Melvin Bullitt work very well together and have the versatility to handle most situations. Both play closer to the line than is typical of Cover-2 safeties, but they have the range and quick enough reactions that they seldom get toasted over the top. Bethea has made the last two Pro Bowls largely because of his ability in between the hash marks, both in coverage and as a run stuffer. He?s quite good at properly shading the tight end and closing on the ball in what the QB and receiver perceive to be an open flat spot in the zone between the inside of the corner and the dropping LB. Bullitt seldom leaves the box and almost functions as a 4th LB in the base defense. Stopping outside runs and blowing up screens and draws are his fortes. He is lacking in ball skills, however--he?s the only safety in the last 10 years (it could actually be a lot longer, that?s how far back the data goes) to start 16 games and not register even one pass defended or INT. Still, he?s done quite well on a defense in an emergency relief capacity in place of Bob Sanders, the 2007 NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Sanders is still hoping for a comeback, but after missing all but 9 quarters in the last two seasons, any contribution should be considered a surprise. One caution here is that both Bethea and especially Bullitt will miss their share of tackles; the Colts led the league in missed tackles last year, and as this Lions fan can assure you, that?s quite an improbable feat. Corner is a potential downfall. Last season the Colts hit the jackpot with a pair of rookie CBs, Jerraud Powers and Jacob Lacey, both of whom played significantly better, not to mention a whole lot more, than expected. They join injury-plagued holdover Kelvin Hayden as the only corners on the team with any meaningful experience. If Hayden returns to full health after a down 2009, the Colts should have enough to handle playing nickel. He?s the best natural cover man on the team and understands his role in the zone expertly. Hayden is also a bulldog against the run, crashing hard inside and eschewing blockers easily for a DB. Powers is also good in run support, and he handles his business in the short-area zone coverage nicely. The team gave him a lot of help by shading the LB coverage his way and keeping the safety a little deeper on his side, because he did show vulnerability down the field. Jacob Lacey was a stunning undrafted find, meriting all-rookie status and yet probably still woefully underappreciated by most fans. Breaking up 15 passes and showing a more physical nature than any 175 pounder ever witnessed, Lacey is ideally suited for playing the inside nickel role. Assuming Hayden returns, that?s where Lacey will play. The Colts desperately need him to produce an encore performance and avoid a sophomore slump, because behind the top 3 the cupboard is beyond bare. Tim Jennings and Marlin Jackson left as free agents, and 3rd rounder Kevin Thomas tore up his knee on the first day of rookie camp. 7th rounder Ray Fisher was drafted for his return prowess, but he could conceivably be the 4th CB for Indianapolis a year after being the #2 CB at football doormat Indiana University. Agents have directed all sorts of undrafted free agent corners to Bill Polian?s office, with a battle royal for the last 2 or 3 secondary roster spots almost certain to be made up of the winners. If the starting safeties and top 3 CBs all stay healthy, they?ll be fine, but if the likes of former Ohio Bobcat Thad Turner are playing extensively, this defense is in trouble. Special Teams This has been an area of concern for several years now. Pat McAfee was the rare punter that proved worth being drafted, dramatically upgrading both the punting average and kickoff distance. It?s too bad he can?t also kick field goals, because Adam Vinatieri was missed in that regard. Matt Stover was a gamer, but his range has shortened over the years and the confidence just wasn?t there from his teammates. Adam Vinatieri returns after a season on IR, but that was for hip surgery--never a sure recovery, especially for a guy in his mid-30s. To that end the Colts have rookie Brett Swenson in camp and ready to go, though during his time at Michigan State he never screamed ?NFL Kicker? to me. The Colts are a strange anomaly amongst Cover-2 defensive teams in that their coverage units have been consistently dreadful throughout the years. Normally those types of teams are chock full of speedy, hard-hitting LBs and safeties that thrive in cover duty, but that has never been the case in Indy. They have also lacked a dynamic return man for pretty much the entire Manning era. They drafted Ray Fisher to help, but he might be pressed into corner duty. Don?t expect a great deal of improvement from the special teams other than perhaps punt coverage, a testament to the talented young punter. 3 Keys to the season 1. The Super Bowl hangover effect. It?s rare that Peyton Manning costs his team a game like he did against the Saints, but it does call to mind echoes of early in his career. The rap on Manning coming out of Tennessee and even well into the 00?s was that he didn?t have what it takes to win the big games. Any loss of confidence on his part, either in his own mind or from teammates, is a death knell for this team. I don?t expect it to show during the regular season, but come playoff time it bears watching. Of course, if Manning gets hurt the playoffs are a pipe dream. 2. Running. Both offensively and defensively, the Colts ranked at or near the bottom in almost every rushing statistical metric. The lines must play better, as must the pair of first-round RBs. 3. Staying hungry. The core of this team has been together a long time and has to avoid a ?been there, done that? mentality during the regular season. Forecast The Colts have put together an amazing run of regular season success, bagging at least 12 wins seven years in a row. And counting. Don?t expect any less than 12 wins once again this regular season, not with the AFC South weaker than ever and with Peyton Manning still manning the controls. Indianapolis should run away with the AFC South title by Thanksgiving, then go into their usual ?rest and lose? mode--even though it has burned them a whole lot more than it has helped them. This is probably the thinnest team the Colts have had since the impressive run began, so any key injuries (Manning, Wayne, Freeney, Saturday, Brackett, Bethea) could cause major problems. Chalk up another 12-4 regular season, but unfortunately I also forecast another disappointing playoff run. Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com

Free-agent guard Chester Pitts worked out for the Steelers and Colts on Tuesday in Arizona, according to his agent. Agent Andrew Kessler added that his client has visits scheduled with two other clubs next week.

Colts wide receiver Reggie Wayne hasn't been able to avoid questions about a holdout possibly extending into training camp, which begins Aug. 1. Indianapolis has a first priority of signing Peyton Manning to a contract extension, then they'll focus on Wayne. "We're just gonna take it day by day," Wayne said. "I would love to see Anderson (the new site of camp). I've never been there. And when that day comes, we'll see what's up. "We've been talking," he added. "I guess you can say that. ... We're just gonna let them do their thing. I'm just gonna come and play football, that's all I can do. And whenever that phone rings with the good news, I'll be excited."

Agent Tom Condon and the Indianapolis Colts denied an NFL.com/NFL Network report that there's some concern that safety Bob Sanders might not play again because of injuries and he had renegotiated his contract. Condon, who represents Sanders, told The Indianapolis Star on Monday that the two-time Pro Bowl safety, who has struggled with shoulder and bicep injuries in the previous two seasons, doesn't have any new problems. Condon also said Sanders' contract situation hasn't changed. A team spokesman agreed, saying, "Nothing has changed since June."

Bob Sanders may never play football again due to his lingering shoulder issues. He reduced his contract, but his rehab has been slow.

It appears as though the Colts might not give quarterback Peyton Manning a new contract until the NFL and the NFLPA reach terms on a new Collective Bargaining Agreement. "It's bound to have some effect," Colts president Bill Polian told WEEI.com when asked whether the contract would have an effect on the rest of the NFL. "What we don't know is what the system is going forward. It makes it really difficult working out a deal that makes sense for everybody because you don't know what the [salary] cap will be, what the ramifications are, how things count. All of that makes it a little difficult. We've been going slowly along with [Manning's agent] Tom Condon because we're trying to formulate some things that will fit no matter what the system is."

Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney is excited about matching up against the NFL's new crop of rookies this season. "I'm licking my chops," he said. "When you have a rookie offensive tackle, I can't wait," he said. "Because for an offensive tackle, you're not good until you're in like your eighth year. You've got to get beat up for a while to learn what to do and what not to. It's when you're about in your fifth through 10th years as an offensive tackle that you're in your prime. "All these rookies coming out? They don't know anything. I can't wait." Freeney is also hoping he'll get a chance to sack a certain rookie quarterback. "I couldn't wait to hit Mark Sanchez," he said. "And I can't wait to hit Tim Tebow even more."