Last year: 5-11, last in NFC West

Key Figures

Scoring offense: 14.9 ppg, last in NFL

Scoring defense: 24.2 ppg, 18th in NFL

Turnover margin: -5

It wasn’t long ago the San Francisco 49ers were in the NFC Championship Game in three straight seasons, featuring a stifling defense and an exciting offensive attack led by Colin Kaepernick and Jim Harbaugh. Three years later, almost everything from those strong, balanced teams is gone. Kaepernick and a handful of aging veterans remain, but the bulk of the talent either retired, moved on or got hurt.

The Jim Tomsula era is thankfully over, giving way to controversial new head master Chip Kelly. Controversial GM Trent Baalke remains, and that’s an interesting dynamic in and of itself. This team faces many tough questions as they try to claw back to respectability in a division featuring three enemies with stellar defenses.

Five questions

1. Blaine Gabbert or Colin Kaepernick at QB?

The immediate answer is Gabbert, as he will be the starter entering the season. His play last season was quietly better than expected, showing a newfound confidence and poise he sorely lacked as a 2011 draft flop in Jacksonville. He throws a nice, catchable intermediate ball and can make some anticipatory passes on crosses and slants. His ability to make better, quicker decisions with the ball stood out in relation to his prior career. Gabbert is also a good athlete, netting nearly 200 yards on the ground and running out of imminent peril better than most.

It was the confidence he infused into the players around him that won Gabbert fans in the locker room and front office. His willingness to try to keep the offense on schedule and make plays within the structured design made him a much safer option than Kaepernick.

Few players have fallen so far, so fast as Kaepernick. This is a guy who won 17 of his first 23 starts and drove the 49ers deep into the playoffs both seasons. Kaepernick was a dynamic dual-threat QB with a cannon of a right arm and a thoroughbred build as a runner. He was kinetic, he was exciting, he made foie gras out of roadkill with then-head coach Jim Harbaugh as his master chef.

Since the start of the 2014 season, the 2011 second-round pick is just 10-14, including 2-6 last year. His completion percentage dropped a bit, but what make that so much worse is his average yards per attempt fell off by almost two full yards. Most QBs get more accurate when they throw shorter passes, but Kaepernick’s erraticism and lack of touch on short throws has been a consistent issue. For a guy who moves like a gazelle in space, he also took too many sacks and ran into trouble with a lack of field vision when pressured.

The Niners tried to trade him in the offseason to no avail. Theoretically he’s an optimal fit for Chip Kelly’s offense with his running ability and quick release, but he would have to be more accurate and decisive. Gabbert is better at both right now. The fact Kaepernick has missed all of the summer activities with a “dead arm” makes it academic.

I like the Gabbert redemption angle, and the guy we saw at the end of last season can fare quite well in Kelly’s fast-paced attack. Rookie sixth-round pick Jeff Driskel already has his own redemption story, flopping as Tim Tebow’s successor at Florida before a rebirth at Louisiana Tech. Driskel is also an impressive athlete with decent touch and showed a lot of legit NFL skills last fall. He could be the long-term solution. Then again, when journeyman camp arm Thad Lewis got hurt the Niners brought in yet another QB from the insanely unsuccessful Class of 2011 in Christian Ponder, who was worse in Minnesota than Gabbert was in Jacksonville or Kaepernick has ever been in San Francisco.

2. Who scores touchdowns?

The quarterback will need some help, but this roster is painfully thin at the offensive skill positions.

Carlos Hyde is a worthy starter at running back, but the third-year pro from Ohio State has got to stay on the field to prove it. He’s managed under 200 carries in his two seasons while missing 11 games. Hyde’s 2015 ended on IR with surgery for a broken left foot, which is not a good injury for a runner. Hyde has power, vision and balance both inside and outside and good enough speed to be a playmaking threat. Aside from health, his biggest issue is avoiding the first tackler when the blocking breaks down.

Shaun Draughn is the backup RB. He’s got niftier feet and great hands out of the backfield, but he’s a bottom-of-the-roster journeyman on 30 other teams. I suspect he’ll play better than that in this system, but he’s just not a dynamic talent. Behind him are Packers castoff DuJuan Harris and unimpressive Mike Davis, who showed zero vision or patience in averaging less than two yards per carry as a fourth-round rookie. Neither Davis nor Harris are gameday actives on any other roster.

Top receiver Anquan Boldin took his venerable veteran talents to Detroit, which leaves Torrey Smith as the leader of the pack. Smith still brings the long speed and notched an impressive 20.1 yards per catch last year, his first in San Francisco. Alas, he caught just 33 passes and scored only four times. Smith also played a lot better with Kaepernick taking the snaps than Gabbert, so that bears watching.

Fantasy football folks seem bullish on Bruce Ellington but he’s done little to merit the hype. The shifty, speedy slot receiver has 19 catches in two injury-plagued years. I won’t deny his potential to be a big part of this offense, but like the running back depth, he’s at least one spot too high on the depth chart. That’s in part because Quinton Patton just hasn’t developed as the sure-handed widebody many (myself emphatically included) expected him to be coming out of Louisiana Tech. His routes lack any urgency and precision, often just sort of floating into the general direction he belongs. Suspect hands and an alarming propensity for personal foul penalties have not helped. Again, this is another player who wouldn’t sniff being a gameday active on just about any other roster, but here he’s no worse than the No. 3 outside receiver.

DeAndre Smelter cannot stay healthy, period. Sixth-round pick Aaron Burbridge was a gamer at Michigan State and can make tough catches down the field, but he’s a very limited athlete, the kind of player Kelly typically eschews. Perhaps Stanford product Devon Cajuste will make the most of his opportunity as a super-sized wideout, but he struggled with contested throws in college despite often having 50+ pounds and half a foot on the guy he was fighting with.

The tight ends offer some hope. Vance McDonald is a great fit as a flexed out option who can push the seam and work the middle of the field. His game perked up when Gabbert took over last year, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he winds up leading the 49ers in TD receptions and perhaps even total targets. Then again, most indications are the Rice product won’t start over Garrett Celek. He’s more of a chip-and-release inline presence who can reliably catch hooks, outs and comebacks but doesn’t come close to McDonald’s playmaking ability.

Bruce Miller has been a fullback, H-Back and tight end and brings energy and max effort on every snap. He’s even getting some camp work at wideout. His versatility is fantastic, but he has just 28 catches for 324 yards the last two years. Intriguing Blake Bell, once a short-yardage quarterback at Oklahoma, could find a red zone role. It’s fascinating that a head coach who has rarely played multiple tight end sets other than in specific situations has an abundance of talented TEs but will struggle to field three NFL-caliber wideouts.

The 49ers were dead last in scoring last year, as well as ranking 31st in yards per game and third down conversions. It’s very difficult to see them improving more than a spot or two on any of those rankings in 2016 even at Kelly’s hellbent pace.

3. Who makes plays on the defensive front?

The 49ers are sorely lacking playmakers on offense. Unfortunately the situation isn’t much better on defense.

Ahmad Brooks led with 6.5 sacks, tied with fellow outside backer Aaron Lynch. That’s the lowest total for any team leader. Brooks is an overpriced veteran with some disciplinary issues in the past and declining production, so Kelly might not even want him around. That leaves Lynch, who is emerging as a strong all-around presence, as the top rusher. He’s capable, as the very physical 270-pounder had more pressures than the rest of the linebackers combined (thanks Pro Football Focus!). Alas, Lynch is suspended for the first four games for violating the substance abuse rules. That will probably keep Brooks around just out of necessity.

Second-year Eli Harold needed to get bigger and he has, which portends well for an increased role. Harold brings length and a great closing stride, though he didn’t get a sack as a second-round rookie from Virginia. Keep an eye on the aptly named Marcus Rush, an undrafted free agent a year ago who has impressed in camp and has intriguing athletic potential.

NaVorro Bowman remains one of the best inside backers in the game, leading the NFL in tackles and staying in the thick of just about every run play. The range isn’t back to pre-injury but it’s good enough except against the swiftest tight ends and runners in coverage. It would be nice if he created more than the one takeaway he registered last season. Nondescript Michael Wilhoite fills the other inside spot as a reliable tackler but he’s not a playmaker at all; Wilhoite has 3 INTs, one forced fumble, no sacks and just four tackles for loss in four seasons. Gerald Hodges could supplant him in the starting lineup with his more aggressive run defense, but he’s also not a playmaker with just 1 INT (albeit a pick-six) and half a sack in 39 career games over four years.

A strong front line should help. The Niners have spent their last two first-round picks on behemoth defensive ends from Oregon in Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner. Both are 6’7” and very impressive physical specimens. Armstead started his career slowly but has the potential to pick it up in his second year. He’s not twitchy but has a great deal of power in his shoulders and core and figures to be a more effective base end in year two. Buckner is an upfield agitator, a guy who can collapse the pocket from the 5-technique but also quickly shed blocks and get to the point of attack against the run.

Losing solid nose tackle Ian Williams to injury really hurts. Glenn Dorsey is okay as his replacement but he’s best used in small doses and carries durability concerns of his own. If Buckner and Armstead can combine for double-digit sacks and use their length to disrupt short passing games, it can help the defense get a lot better. Quinton Dial, Tony Jerod-Eddie and fifth-round pick Ronald Blair should be quality depth up front, especially if Blair proves he can stand up on the edge. Then again, everyone in the last two paragraphs have combined for a grand total of 8.5 NFL sacks in the last five years.

4. Where did this team get better?

It’s a painful observation but a necessary one when evaluating the 49ers. They did shore up a couple of areas, however.

The secondary looks pretty good, notably at safety. Veteran Antoine Bethea should be fully recovered from the shoulder injury that wiped out half his 2015 season. He’s smart, hard-hitting and an adept blitzer. Eric Reid is solid in coverage, though he hasn’t ever built upon his outstanding rookie campaign in 2013. It would be nice if he created some takeaways, and the 25-year-old has proven in the past he can with seven INTs his first two years. They’re a pretty good starting combo, and one of the pleasant surprises of 2015 was Jaquiski Tartt as the third safety. He looked capable of starting while filling in for Bethea and could see the field as a hybrid safety/LB role more in his second season.

I’m not as down on the corners here as most appear to be. Dontae Johnson, Jimmie Ward and Tramaine Brock are a solid combination with Ward excelling as the nickel. He’s nicely transitioned from safety and played great down the stretch in his second season. Brock plays the ball in the air well and has an excellent fight/size of dog ratio, while Johnson brings length and improving confidence at the other outside spot. They don’t have any depth behind the primary threesome, but few teams do. Rookie Rashard Robinson offers high-ceiling potential but serious character flags.

The offensive line might not be better, not after losing standout guard Alex Boone. But in drafting powerhouse Stanford product Joshua Garnett as his replacement, the Niners are at least treading water. I disagree strongly with the decision to trade up into the bottom of the first round to take a guard who got absolutely eviscerated by the guy the team drafted earlier in the first (Buckner), but there is no question San Francisco needed Garnett. He’ll help the run game and can hold his own in pass protection.

Getting Anthony Davis back after an odd one-year retirement helps too. He’s playing right guard, not his old position of right tackle. Davis should be a stabilizing force on that side, helping behemoth Trenton Brown continue to emerge at his old spot. Brown came on nicely in his rookie season and team observers have raved about him all summer. Veteran Joe Staley remains an upper-echelon left tackle and a bastion of stability on a team that has turned over every other offensive starting spot at least twice in the last three years.

Committing to Gabbert at quarterback probably helps the entire offense. The linemen used to get visibly perturbed when Kaepernick would bail on the designed play and make them look bad by running himself into trouble. A more unified approach should pay dividends.

As long as the Oregon ends Armstead and Buckner come close to their first-round billings, the defensive line will be better too.

5. Will Chip Kelly work out as coach?

It’s somewhat remarkable Kelly gets a second chance so quickly after his utter devastation of the Eagles. Kelly is a headstrong, cocky control aficionado who exiled pretty much every veteran worth keeping in Philly. He’s a firm believer that his system, both offensively and behind the scenes, is a foolproof way to take the NFL by storm.

Except it flopped, getting progressively worse over the course of his three seasons before he was dumped with one game left in 2015 when his players had clearly given up on him.

Let’s go back to that first season, where he inherited a tired 4-12 team that had become way too complacent under a decade of Andy Reid. The fresh energy and change Kelly brought with him from Oregon lit a fire and got Philly back to the playoffs. He rode the hot hands of Nick Foles, Lesean McCoy and DeSean Jackson smartly.

This Niners team has that kind of potential on offense. Gabbert is better than Foles. A healthy Hyde could do similar things to Shady McCoy behind what looks like a pretty good run-blocking line. Torrey Smith can do many of the things Jackson can down the field. This defense already has decent speed in the back, another Kelly trademark.

The stakes are different this time, however. Few coaches have ever drawn the open enmity of players like Kelly did. The optimism and innovation factors he brought with him to the Eagles are phantasmal relics of a shattered past. Kelly has to reinvent himself with San Francisco and prove he learned from his numerous missteps.

I would love it if he brought in experienced coordinators to help hold his hand a bit. Instead, Kelly hired Curtis Modkins on offense and Jim O’Neil on defense. Modkins comes from Detroit, where he was the running back coach for arguably the worst rushing attack over the last three years. He’s had one season as an Offensive Coordinator, serving next to Chan Gailey in Buffalo. O’Neil spent two years as Cleveland’s Defensive Coordinator. Those years are notable for a decided lack of player development and declining results. His QB Coach is Ryan Day, a greenhorn.

The most notable on-field difference will be the offensive pace, and this is a most welcome change. The 49ers slogged to the line and have ranked at or near the bottom of plays per game for years, even in Harbaugh’s halcyon days. The pacing does stress defenses. Of course the flip side is far too many 4-play, 12-yard drives that take about two minutes off the clock and leave his own defense absolutely gassed, but it’s a tradeoff the 49ers need to risk.

San Francisco is hoping that initial Kelly invigoration carries the team as it continues the massive rebuild. Kelly’s attention to detail off the field should go over well. Also, the older veterans left on the roster from the Harbaugh era understand how to operate under a lightning rod coaching persona. These Niners will at least be more prepared and more difficult to line up against. It’s up to Kelly and his staff to make sure they keep building. That 100 percent did not happen in Philadelphia.

Forecast

The 49ers are in the second year of a massive overhaul of a team that rose to be consistent NFC contenders just three short years ago. There are pieces here and there, enough to keep them competitive most weeks. If they can get solid play from Blaine Gabbert and win the turnover battle, San Francisco is good enough to pull a few surprises.

Alas, they would indeed be surprises. No team has lesser skill position talent, and it’s not really close. With inexperienced coordinators operating under an infamously defrocked head coach in Chip Kelly, it’s hard to see them taking many steps forward from last year’s collapse to 5-11.

The 49ers have the lowest win over/under in the NFC at 5.5 wins. In looking at the schedule, it’s hard to find more than two wins before the Week 8 bye, and that includes a stretch where they face Carolina, Seattle and Arizona in a month. Weeks 6 through 14 present the most winnable opportunities, though New England and Arizona also lurk in that chunk. If they’re healthy and the defensive youngsters prove worthy, they can maybe squeak out six wins. Fans will need patience, and hopefully it gets rewarded here and there with an upset or two. San Francisco finishes 4-12 in the first year of the Trent Baalke/Chip Kelly arranged marriage.

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