Last year: 7-9, 2nd in NFC East

Key Numbers

Scoring offense: 23.6 ppg, 13^th in NFL

Scoring defense: 26.9 ppg, 28^th in NFL

Turnover margin: -5

Point differential: -53

Changes abound for the Philadelphia Eagles as the Chip Kelly experiment ingloriously ended with a disappointing 7-9 campaign. Enter Doug Pederson as the new head coach. A former backup QB for the Eagles, Pederson is a familiar face and a progeny of the Andy Reid coaching tree. The offense is definitely going to change under Pederson. So too will the defense, as former Lions head coach Jim Schwartz takes over. Schwartz brings snarl and a chip on his shoulder to a team that needs both defensively.

The coaching turnover also means a lot of uncertainty for the players. The Eagles have some pretty strong talent in some key spots, but there are a lot of questions at several others. In a division where all opponents look better now than 12 months ago, have the Eagles done enough to get back into NFC East contention in Pederson’s rookie season?

Five Questions

1. How does the secondary come together?

The secondary was a major liability last season. Byron Maxwell proved a free agency bust, while fellow starting corner Nolan Carroll struggled to cover and tackle before breaking his ankle. While safety Malcolm Jenkins tried his best, his cohort Walter Thurmond was only adequate. Thurmond surprisingly retired. Rookie Eric Rowe was in over his head early. Too many blown coverages and miscommunications led to too many points. Yet there is reason for hope.

Jenkins is the lynch pin. A converted cornerback, he’s great in coverage and understands what the offense is trying to accomplish. The range, the closing speed, the football IQ are all top notch. His ability to play the entire field will suit him well in the new defense, where Jim Schwartz typically eschews “strong” and “free” safety designations.

Rodney McLeod should help shore up that other safety spot. He was overlooked with the Rams but is a solid all-around safety. McLeod is smallish (5’10”, 195) but has been a consistent force on some defenses with cornerback issues and nobody even close to Jenkins’ level next to him. As long as the safeties don’t have to keep bailing out the linebackers in coverage, which happened a lot last year, they’re the strength of the back end.

Carroll desperately needs to come back healthy and close to the player he was in his breakout 2013 campaign in Miami. The Eagles invested in that guy but have largely gotten the player who was primarily the third outside corner for the bulk of his time to that point. If he’s not better than an average corner, something he’s shown to be for the vast majority of his career, the pass defense is going to struggle once again.

Seventh round pick Jalen Mills just might wind up being the only draftee who actually plays without needing someone in front of him to either really suck or get hurt. Mills appears to have the inside track on the third CB spot, even though many teams and draft analysts envisioned him more as a safety.

If that sounds eerily similar to 2015 second-rounder Rowe, you heard right. Many Eagles' insiders are already floating the concept that Mills has surpassed Rowe on the pecking order. Rowe had his struggles locating the ball as a rookie but played better down the stretch. Remember, Jim Schwartz had a hand in drafting Mills and has no ties to Rowe. The odds on Rowe being traded before the season starts are pretty high. Mills has the ballhawking skills Schwartz favors.

The depth at corner features a pair of former Bills in Leodis McKelvin and Ron Brooks. McKelvin has been far more valuable as a return man than a cover corner despite once being a first-round pick. He just doesn’t have any anticipation and gets fooled too frequently. Brooks projects as the slot corner, a position which sees extensive action under Schwartz. He’s typically been very good in the first 5 yards and a train wreck beyond that limited range. At least he’s a solid tackler.

Perhaps one of the youngsters like Jaylen Watkins or oft-injured Jacorey Shepherd will step up. Optimally, McKelvin shouldn’t see the field on defense and having one of those seize a valuable reserve role would make for a nice bonus. I liked Watkins coming out of Florida but he has shown little in his two seasons. 

2. What happens at quarterback?

A three-headed monster of Sam Bradford, Chase Daniel and Carson Wentz doesn’t scare any opponent, but that’s what the Eagles bring into the 2016 season. Bradford is the incumbent starter, but how long he keeps that status is up for debate.

On his best days, and we see it about 10 quarters per season, Bradford is a fringe top 12 NFL quarterback. He upped his completion percentage in Kelly’s quick-hit offense to a career-high 65%, but with the offense changing (more on that below) expect a regression to his normal 60%. Bradford remains a reactive passer, lacking anticipation beyond his initial read. He has never handled pressure well, and given the state of flux of the offensive line here, that’s not a good quality. It would help Bradford immensely if Jason Peterson rebounds to his old self at left tackle, but at his age and recent injury history that is no given. New guard Brandon Brooks is a run blocking specialist, albeit an exceptional one at that task. Then again, he fell off considerably in his final year with the Texans as a run blocker but ticked up in pass protection. He and Lane Johnson together on the right side should be a very effective duo.

Pederson brought his backup from Kansas City, Chase Daniel, along for the ride. That’s not unusual. What stands out is how much the Eagles paid Daniel. $21M over three years with $12M guaranteed is incredibly rich for a backup, particularly when the team mortgages all sorts of draft assets to move up and get the No. 2 overall pick and use that on a quarterback. They’re still paying Bradford $35M over two years so he’s not going anywhere. Daniel is undersized and doesn’t have Bradford’s arm but is a much more polished touch passer and anticipatory thrower. He’s also fairly mobile out of the shotgun. Daniel has thrown just 77 passes in six seasons.

Then there is the prized rookie in Carson Wentz. GM Howie Roseman gave up a ransom to move up and select the North Dakota State star, but don’t expect to see him in 2016. THe jump from the FCS to the NFL is daunting, and Wentz’s lack of experience (22 starts) at that lower level is a legit concern. He’s got the arm strength and athleticism to eventually be a lot better than Bradford ever could be, but he has some of the same issues. He’s not been an anticipatory passer and makes poor decisions under pressure. The accuracy isn’t exactly pinpoint, either, though he hasn’t worked with NFL caliber receivers to help him either.

The best guess as to how this shakes out:

Bradford starts the season but his inconsistency and propensity to leave too many plays on the field leads Pederson to switch to Daniel following a Week 6 loss at Washington. Daniel completes more passes and runs a more efficient ship but also generates fewer big plays. Wentz never suits up for game day.

Protecting the ball should be a focus for whomever winds up playing under center. Only Dallas committed more giveaways last year than the Eagles’ 31.

3. Just how dramatically will the offensive scheme change?

Eagles' fans are used to the Chip Kelly hare in terms of pace of play. His Eagles led the league in quickest time to snap the ball and finished in the top 2 in plays per game in each of the last two years. The theory was, don’t give the defense time to get set up or make situational substitutions.

Enter Doug Pederson from the Chiefs, who ranked 29th and 26th in plays per game the last two years. Kansas City finished in the bottom-5 in time to snap both years, too (thanks NFL Network for the info). Granted the structure of the personnel is different, but expect a more pensive approach. Kelly’s theory failed in part because the breakneck pace took away the quarterback’s ability to divine pre-snap reads. Switching out of a play because the defense was aligned to snuff it? Please. Kelly couldn’t be troubled with this trivialities.

The Eagles' offense is going to sacrifice explosiveness and the blitzkrieg tactics for more tactical strategizing and sustained drives. In theory, I love the change. But given the skill position talent on offense, the adjustment might be more of a struggle than anticipated. Aside from Bradford or whomever winds up playing quarterback, there are huge questions about the running backs and the receiving corps.

At running back, the Eagles have a lot better name value than actual football value. Most casual NFL fans know Darren Sproles and Ryan Mathews, and in theory it’s a solid duo whose skills complement one another nicely. The reality is, Sproles is now 33 and didn’t do much with the ball in his hands last year. The veteran scatback averaged just 3.8 yards per carry and 7.1 yards per reception. For a back whose calling card is elusiveness, Sproles simply wasn’t very elusive last year. Some of that was definitely scheme related, as he still showed the magic as a Pro Bowl punt returner with two returns to the house. The offense was predictable when he was in the game, and I’m not sure how much that will change even in a new scheme.

Mathews was pretty effective, as he typically has been his entire 6-year career. He’s a talented, inside-out runner. The problem is keeping the former first-rounder on the field. He has played 16 games just once thanks to a wide variety of injuries. Worse, he’s starting training camp on the non-football injury list with a bum ankle. If Pederson tries to deploy him the way Jamaal Charles was used in Kansas City’s offense, Mathews will not last half the season. He’s just not built to grind, or to catch a bunch of swing passes and screens.

The depth behind them consists of Kenjon Barner and Wendell Smallwood. Barner was a Kelly guy from Oregon who quickly washed out of Carolina and might not be long for Philadelphia if he doesn’t show more gumption and toughness with the ball in his hands. Smallwood is a rookie from West Virginia who impressed everyone in OTAs. In college, he wasn’t an explosive runner but more of a guy who reliably maxed out what he could. He could be effective at setting up 2nd and 4 and picking up short yardage conversions, which is a key to what Pederson’s offense was with the Chiefs. It wouldn’t surprise me if Smallwood winds up with the most touches in his rookie year.

At wideout, the No. 1 is Jordan Matthews and he’s emerging as worthy of that role. The 6’3” Matthews has racked up 152 catches and 16 TDs in his first two years, though his yards per reception is lower than you’d like form a lead receiver. He finished tied for 15th in reception with 85 but 72nd in yards per catch. Again, some of this is clearly attributable to Kelly’s scheme. If he’s going to take the proverbial next step, Matthews will need to be more reliable at catching the ball cleanly down the field and at breaking the first tackle after the catch. He isn’t a blazer or an agility master, so it’s tough to see him being much more than he already is, but expect Matthews to catch close to 100 passes and finally cross the 1000 yard threshold.

After Mathews, well…Nelson Agholor is the safest bet to emerge as the No. 2. As a second-round rookie last year, Agholor struggled to stay open off his initial move and seldom made himself a bigger target. He’s 6’0” but plays like he’s Sproles sized. He was seemingly a much better fit for Kelly’s offense than Pederson’s too; the Chiefs threw the fewest passes to slot receivers in each of the last three years and Agholor just doesn’t have the strength or mindset to play outside.

Josh Huff is another Kelly player from Oregon, a receiver whose game is almost entirely based on quickness and taking advantage of pacing. Huff is tough and can accelerate well out of breaks, but in a good offense he’s a No. 4 or No. 5 receiver, a situational player. Unless Giants castoff Rueben Randle steps up, something he infrequently did in New York despite better quarterback play and supporting cast to help him, here Huff is no worse than No. 3. Randle figures to be the best red zone threat, and that will help Philadelphia improve from last year’s middle-of-the-pack 55% TD conversion red zone rate. All the other wideouts are disappointing castoffs (Chris Givens, T.J. Graham) or undrafted rookies with finite ceilings (Hunter Sharp, Cayleb Jones).

Fortunately the outlook is a lot better at tight end. Zach Ertz is a quality receiving option whose arrow is pointing up after catching 75 passes last season. He’s one of the better young players at his position. He pairs with Brent Celek, a strong all-around talent who can reliably get penciled in for 30-35 catches on a 70% catch rate and 400-500 yards. Given Bradford’s skittishness or the tendency for younger QBs to lean on reliable targets, Celek could be in line for more than that in 2016. Versatile Trey Burton provides another receiving option. 

4. Does the defense become more than the sum of its parts?

Make no mistake, there is decent talent on the Eagles defense. It starts up front, and that’s exactly how Jim Schwartz likes it. In his 4-3 scheme, the front four is almost exclusively responsible for all of the pass rush and neutralizing the five (or six) initial blockers against the run.

In Fletcher Cox, Schwartz has the alpha male presence he needs on the interior. The Eagles raised some eyebrows in making Cox one of the few $100M defenders, but he’s a perfect fit for the 3T role previously manned by stars Ndamukong Suh and Albert Haynesworth (the Titans version) under Schwartz. Cox should challenge for the league lead in sacks and pressures amongst defensive tackles, and he’s capable against the run and the quick passing game, too. Guys his size aren’t supposed to be so quick and powerful.

I like Connor Barwin moving back from rush OLB to DE. He’s been relatively successful at both, but he played the run better at end and won’t have as many superfluous responsibilities in Schwartz’s defense other than lining up wide and going full bore at the opposing QB.

Moving to Schwartz’s scheme should benefit the other two primary starters, DT Bennie Logan and DE Vinny Curry. Logan was miscast as a nose. He’ll be shaded and allowed to attack more often, asked to anchor less. Logan has been at his best when he can engage but then peel and get to the ball. That’s exactly what Schwartz wants from his 1-tech. Curry gets to play the 7-tech to 9-tech. I like his game the closer he is to the tackle, where his quick hands and rip move work better than coming at the blocker from further away. He should play more than Brandon Graham, who is a better all-around defender but doesn’t have Curry’s sizzle factor off the edge. At worst, the Eagles have actual depth at defensive end. If 2014 first-rounder Marcus Smith can prove to be more than the colossal bust he’s been thus far, Philly might actually have four quality ends.

Beau Allen should fit nicely as the third tackle, a role Schwartz deploys quite a bit. He’s the best lineman at soaking up blockers, which helps the linebackers behind him. Allen and feisty veteran Mike Martin should see the field a lot together, and the run defense will look stout with that duo in the middle.

The linebackers are fine as long as Mychal Kendricks and Jordan Hicks stay healthy. Kendricks was lousy last year but has the range and closing speed to make a lot of plays. There is little excuse for his coverage woes, however. Hicks really impressed as a third-round rookie, showing instincts and savvy in getting to the point of attack under control. The Texas product proved an impact player against both the run and pass. Staying healthy is the challenge for the new Mike backer, as he has a lengthy injury history that includes a torn Achilles and a torn pectoral, the latter of which ended his rookie campaign prematurely.

Nigel Bradham figures to be the other outside backer, though he probably will be on the field a lot less than the nickel CB. That’s how Schwartz rolls defensively. Bradham played under him in Buffalo and is a competent coverage backer. Unlike Hicks, he runs by too many plays. A recent arrest clouds his future.

Combine that group of starters with the secondary and this defense should be better than 29th in scoring, 27th in third down percentage and 23rd in yards per play allowed. One factor that can only help: it’s almost a given the defense won’t be on the field so frequently with Kelly not running the offense, too. That matters; no team has faced more plays or had a worse time of possession differential over the last two years than the Eagles.

Still, the starters need to perform as a cohesive unit. That’s not always easy to orchestrate with a scheme change and a new coordinator not noted for being player-friendly or patient. And if any of the linebackers or corners get hurt, look out below. The depth outside of the front four is dramatically inferior to what most NFL teams feature. This is where having some of those picks traded away for a player who isn’t going to play as a rookie would have helped in the short term.

5. How quickly can Chip Kelly be forgotten?

One of the issues with having a team built almost entirely in the eye of a unique head coach is when that coach departs, most of what’s left behind is specially tailored for his specific taste. With Chip Kelly leaving Philadelphia, it’s a peculiar taste that isn’t going to be for everyone or wash away quickly. He was a tall shot of Ouzo in a league where everything is geared for light beer or perhaps a vodka martini.

Kelly gutted the veteran core of the team because players like LeSean McCoy, Desean Jackson, Trent Cole, Nate Allen and even Nick Foles didn’t fit in Chip’s vision. Not all of his decisions were necessarily wrong from a football standpoint, but their ripple effects are a lack of depth and a disjointed core where most of the key cogs haven’t grown together as players all that much.

Other than the defensive line and the (rather underwhelming) receiving corps, most of these Eagles haven’t been here very long. They’re either generally unproven youngsters trying to make a name or mercenaries with more loyalty to their paycheck than the team logo on it. If you doubt the latter point there, how did Vince Young’s “Dream Team” work out for Philly? I’m not saying, I’m just sayin’…

The task of filling Chip’s shoes falls on a rookie head coach with a vastly divergent background. Doug Pederson is a former NFL quarterback who has suckled at the coaching teat of Andy Reid both in Philadelphia and Kansas City. He’s never coached at the college level and was only an NFL Offensive Coordinator for three years.

He’s also never handled a guy like Schwartz, who has not hidden his ambitions to land another head coaching gig. Several of the offensive positional coaches carried over, and how they meld with Pederson and Frank Reich remains to be seen.

Still, I’m generally bullish on Pederson. He played in Philly and knows the unique fan base and culture. At 48, he’s still young enough to relate to players. Some might even remember his playing career, and that does command respect. My concern is with the cultural transition from such an omnipresent majordomo like Kelly to a naïf with no track record of building anything or running a show on his own. It might take longer than the local fans would like to believe.

Forecast

If you read through the above, you’ll note a lot of “should be” or “could be” qualifiers. Given all the changes to the coaching staff and overall team culture, the frank truth is it’s hard to ascertain just how well these Eagles are going to play.

The best-case, where the defense stays healthy and pass rush perks up, the turnover margin swings to +5 or better, and Bradford (or Daniel) strings together a career year with Ryan Mathews also playing 16 games, that Eagles team wins the NFC East. They might even win a playoff game or two.

The worst case is instability at QB with erratic production from the running game and receivers, an injury or two on the offensive line, more transition issues on defense and poor CB and LB play with some injury woes mixed in. That Eagles team is no better than 5-11 against a schedule which features an early bye followed by four road games in five weeks.

What will actually transpire is almost certainly somewhere in between. And it’s that in between part of the season where everything will be decided, too. I like the Eagles to be no worse than 4-2 in their first three and last three games, definitely the easiest parts of the schedule. I just don’t see more than 3 other wins unless everything goes down optimally. They might not win a game from Weeks 8 to 14.

In short, I don’t trust a rookie head coach with an average-at-best QB, few playmakers, inadequate depth across most of the roster and a difficult schedule to fare well in 2016. Spending so much to get Carson Wentz is a sign, intentional or not, that the Eagles brass is playing the long game here. There is enough talent in the starting 22 to pull it all off, but I’ll go with 6-10 in Doug Pederson’s first season.

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