Key Figures

Scoring offense: 22.2 ppg, 19th in NFL

Scoring defense: 18.5 ppg, 4th in NFL

Turnover margin: -4

The Denver Broncos are the defending Super Bowl champs, capping off an epic season with an impressive win over the Carolina Panthers to capture the franchise’s third title. They accomplished this with a suffocating, balanced defense that ranked at or near the top at just about everything. All-planet pass rusher Von Miller set the tone for a defense loaded with top-level talents at all three levels.

Good special teams, notably kicker Brandon McManus and clutch punter Britton Colquitt, helped Denver consistently win the field position battles. That was important because the offense sputtered more often than expected. Peyton Manning wisely went out on top, as he finally started to show his age and diminished skills. Offensive line shuffling and a wildly uneven run game didn’t help as much as Gary Kubiak would have liked.

While Manning and a few other key players departed, Denver was able to hold onto nearly the entire coaching staff. That’s a rare feat for a Super Bowl champ and helps carry a sense of continuity into the challenging new season. Can they repeat?

Five questions

1. Who fills the holes on defense?

Denver’s defense carried them to the Super Bowl victory. The Broncos' D led the league in yards per game, yards per play, sacks, yards per carry and yards per pass attempt while finishing fourth in scoring defense and third in third-down conversion percentage.

One of the unfortunate side effects of a triumphant season is losing key players to big contracts elsewhere. Denver is no exception, as they lost two very good starters in end Malik Jackson and inside linebacker Danny Trevathan. They also lost key reserves Antonio Smith, David Bruton and Josh Bush.

Jackson was the primary pass rusher up front from the DE spot in the 3-4. His 5.5 sacks don’t tell the full story; Jackson consistently collapsed the pocket and cleared blocking attention away from the outside linebackers to help finish, and he was above-average in run defense.

Denver will replace him with Jared Crick, who comes from Houston. Crick is a solid talent who played well opposite J.J. Watt, but Denver doesn’t have Watt. Derek Wolfe is underrated by the football masses, but he’s not the dynamic force Crick is used to operating with. They’re a very good tandem for this version of the 3-4, a familiar scheme for Crick coming from Wade Philips’ D with the Texans. Vance Walker, a solid and versatile third end, unfortunately tore his ACL and is lost for the season. Rookie Adam Gotsis is probably a year away from being asked to contribute much but the Aussie has a lot of potential. Kenny Anunike gets a ton of love from practice reports but saw just 5 snaps last season.

This is the advantage of having Von Miller as the preeminent pass rushing OLB. Miller doesn’t necessarily need the ends to create sack opportunities for him. Wolfe can push the pocket and gets off blocks to make plays well, and that’s enough for Miller. I do worry about Demarcus Ware as the other rush OLB, as he really started to look his age. The 33-year-old still managed 7.5 sacks but didn’t create much pressure on his own. Shaq Barrett is a fine energy rusher off the bench, and he can pick up the slack. His four forced fumbles (say that fast!) and 5.5 sacks were no fluke.

Trevathan will be tougher to replace. Brandon Marshall is very good at the returning spot next door, and he can do many of the same things. Marshall can pick up the coverage responsibilities just fine, and he’s a better attack dog against the run. The problem will be if Corey Nelson or Todd Davis or Zaire Anderson, the trio of camp combatants fighting to replace Trevathan, aren’t up to the task. Nelson and Davis are core special teamers but haven’t ever shown anything beyond that. Anderson was on the practice squad all of his rookie year.

Bruton and Bush were the third and fourth safeties last year, and both played a lot in combining for over 800 snaps. Bruton was important as he played safety when starting strong safety T.J. Ward clicked up to de facto linebacker in sub packages. The best bet to step up as the third safety behind Ward and the criminally underappreciated Darian Stewart is Shiloh Keo. He’s valuable on special teams but has poor range and poorer eyes to see the play. Third-round pick Justin Simmons is more coverage-oriented. That can work, and he’s played well during the summer, but he doesn’t offer the aggressive presence against the run. Sixth-rounder Will Parks is more in that vein stylistically, essentially a 195-pound outside linebacker. I’m bullish on Simmons but he’s an unproven rookie.

2. What happens at quarterback?

Peyton Manning went out on top, retiring after winning his second Super Bowl just like Broncos GM John Elway did two decades ago. This was not at all unexpected as Manning’s sharp decline nearly derailed the Super Bowl champs last year.

What was more unexpected was replacement starter Brock Osweiler also leaving Denver. He took the money and ran to Houston, ironically where Gary Kubiak once struggled with a QB carousel.

As of press time (8/23), the three-man competition is still wide open. Mark Sanchez is the veteran, Trevor Siemian the young upstart and Paxton Lynch the first-round project.

Sanchez is best known for being Mr. Butt Fumble in his Jets days. A career 56% passer with nearly as many interceptions (84) as touchdowns (86), the 2009 first-round pick by the Jets redeemed himself a bit with decent play as a backup in Philadelphia two years ago. Still, he’s too sack-prone, erratic and unreliable to be more than a spot starter.

Siemian has a bigger arm and better downfield touch. The Northwestern product has impressed all summer with his decisive, strong throws and knowledge of the offense. He’s struggled with consistent accuracy in the past, including a deserved benching his senior year in the midst of misfiring on 23 out of 35 throws over two games. Bad INTs have also pockmarked Siemian, including one in Denver’s second preseason game.

Lynch has the most natural talent of the trio but sorely needs seasoning. The tall, athletic righty from Memphis can throw on the run and has a deft touch outside the numbers. However, he’s coming from a simplistic college offense based on quick reads and has earned a reputation as a reactionary (not anticipatory) thrower. In short, he’s the anti-Peyton. That doesn’t mean Lynch will fail; far from it, as he was my top QB with a bullet in this draft class. It does mean he’s not ready to take over Manning’s role in Kubiak’s offense, at least not right away. The Broncos drafted him with such knowledge.

They won last year with Manning struggling and Osweiler getting his first real taste of important game action. In theory they can do it again with Sanchez or Siemian at their respective bests, but they’ll need a lot of help and some luck. If it’s the Sanchez from his later New York time and Lynch proves unready all year, this is the worst QB situation in the league and they make the “winning in spite of” the diminished Manning seem like a pipe dream.

Having playmaking wideouts like Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas can help any QB look pretty good. Sanders has the speed, quickness and nifty feet to get open anywhere on the field. Thomas is a bull at 6’3” and close to 230 pounds, and he could top 100 catches once again. They complement one another expertly and might be the AFC’s most dynamic pass catching duo. As long as they’re both healthy, whomever winds up playing quarterback has a major advantage with them as the targets.

3. Can the run game come together?

Denver was only sporadically effective on the ground last year. Now they have to lean more on the ground game with the given issues at quarterback. The potential is here, but the overhauled offensive line will need to congeal quickly.

The Broncos will feature different starters at every spot except center, where Matt Paradis returns. He’s a great fit in Offensive Coordinator Rick Dennison’s version of Kubiak’s familiar offense. Paradis moves well and can stay engaged even when he loses the leverage advantage. He lacks power but the movement in the run game mitigates that, and he quickly identifies the proper calls. The 2014 sixth-rounder is an ascending talent who will be called upon to be an anchor of stability in turbulent seas.

At tackle, Russell Okung and Donald Stephenson take over for Ryan Harris and Michael Schofield. Harris was a replacement himself for Ryan Clady, and the ripple effect wasn’t pretty by thrusting the overmatched Schofield into action.

On paper, the Broncos upgraded at tackle. Okung is a former top ten overall pick in Seattle (2010) with great feet and impressive power. He’s had issues with nagging injuries, including 3 missed games last year. As long as he’s 100%, Okung should be a great fit in the run game and decent in pass protection. It will be an adjustment blocking for a more static target after protecting Russell Wilson, but Okung has the talent to pull it off.

Stephenson defected from Kansas City where he wasn’t very effective last year in bouncing from the left to the right side. When he’s good, Stephenson is a nice combination of athleticism and surliness. His biggest issue is consistency and it was bad enough the Chiefs threw in the towel. The zone scheme in Denver plays to his strengths, and as the general Denver sentiment was at his signing, “He cannot be any worse than Schofield”. Indeed.

Guard is trickier. Ty Sambrailo kicks inside to right guard after starting as a rookie at left tackle and looking adequate. He tore his rotator cuff early on and that stymied his progress. The Colorado State grad should transition just fine, though he’s out for at least the first week with an elbow injury. Durability has not been one of his abilities, unfortunately. Max Garcia showed promise in his rookie year while playing on both sides. Settling in at left guard and a year of experience in the scheme will only help Garcia, who is a better run blocker than pass protector. He fits the scheme better than either Evan Mathis or Louis Vasquez, the veteran starters from last year who are now ex-Broncos, even if his name recognition isn’t there yet.

Getting a better schematic fit along the line will help the inconsistent running backs. C.J. Anderson has big-play potential but also loses sight of the hole far too frequently. Defenses with good linebacking corps shut him down handily last year, but some of that was because the line couldn’t get out to engage them in time. Anderson looked better late in the year and his consistent ability to pick up 4-5 yards on first downs really helped in the playoffs. But he struggled mightily with that very task most of the season.

That’s why Devontae Booker has a chance to make a big name for himself as a rookie. The fourth-round pick from Utah is straight out of central casting for a Kubiak offense, with a cut-and-go style similar to Arian Foster. Booker is one of the best passing game RBs I’ve ever scouted, a fantastic receiver out of the backfield who can also stonewall rushers in pass protection. If Anderson struggles once again, Booker is a better option than Ronnie Hillman, who somehow led the team in rushing last year despite not being particularly good at any one thing. Consider 10% of his 2015 output came on one run and he didn’t average even 4.5 yards per reception.

4. What role players step up?

Last year, as is the case with every successful team, Denver got nice contributions from lesser players or unexpected sources. From Max Garcia plugging in admirably at guard to Omar Bolden’s impressive spot duty as a return man to Shaq Barrett proving a worthy pass rusher, Denver found real production from role players.

They will need this once again, and they have a few candidates.

  • Devontae Booker. I brought him up earlier but it bears repeating here. His skills in the passing game bring a new dimension to the Broncos offense, at least potentially. He should be a viable foil for C.J. Anderson at running back, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Booker winds up with a better yards per carry and twice as many receptions.
  • Jeff Heuerman. Even Broncos fans have to think a second or two before realizing Heuerman is a second-year tight end. He missed his rookie campaign with injury, but the 2015 third-round pick from Ohio State is a huge, soft-handed target in the intermediate range. With both Vernon Davis and Kubiak’s personal security blanket Owen Daniels gone, Heuerman needs to prove he is healthy and worthy of the draft status. Virgil Green can block but is not more than a No. 3 TE as a receiver.
  • Brandon McManus. Yeah, the kicker. He was money last year when the drives stalled just outside the red zone. Having a kicker with reliable range to the middle 50s is a nice insurance policy for a potential issue at quarterback. McManus has the ability to win close games with his great accuracy on mid-range field goals.
  • Bradley Roby. He’s the third corner behind Chris Harris and Aqib Talib, who are arguably the best starting duo in the AFC even if Talib can be flighty at times. Roby brings blazing chase speed and good tackling, so much that he will play some safety this year. He’s the antidote for the offensive chess pieces like the flexed tight end or a screen-happy passing attack. Now in his third season, Roby is ready for a bigger role.
  • Connor McGovern. The fifth-round pick from Missouri should be the top interior offensive line reserve as a rookie. He’s got the physical strength for the job, and his initial technique is solid. If either of the new guards falters, it’s not a stretch to envision McGovern stepping in and saving the day.
  • Cody Latimer. Sanders and Thomas are a great starting duo at wideout, but the depth chart falls off precipitously after them. Latimer has a golden opportunity to step up as the third wideout. While Jordan Norwood is more experienced and reliable, Latimer brings size and swagger. Like Roby as a first-rounder in 2014, Latimer needs to prove his second-round status was merited in his third season. The potential is there, but it’s hanging by a thread. That’s what makes him a perfect candidate for unexpected contributor.

5. How do they handle being hunted?

Winning the Super Bowl places the target squarely on Denver back. Insert whatever cliché you like, but it’s proven teams go after the defending champs with increased focus and importance every week. Some teams have handled this pretty well, but others have struggled with the burden of defending a title.

For Denver, this is really an unknown. Most Super Bowl teams don’t lose their starting quarterback and veteran leader right away. The leadership vacuum is exacerbated by the milquetoast coaching style of Kubiak, who definitely has the players’ ears and respect but isn’t the fieriest persona. The defense still has strong leadership, but the offense is more variable. With as many as six new starters on offense, this worry cannot be discounted.

Will a sense of accomplishment settle in? Entitlement? Can the team elevate the intensity to match the geared-up opponents gunning for a chance to say they knocked off the defending champs? I suspect the organizational strength, from well-liked owner Pat Bowlen to iconic personnel architect John Elway, plays a big factor in preventing any complacency or entitlement. Still, it’s hard to know how a team reacts until you see them come out the other side.

Forecast

The recipe for success in Denver is clear: the offense only has to be competent enough to not lose games for what appear to be a top-5 defense once again. I do think the media at large underestimates the losses of guys like Malik Jackson, Danny Trevathan and David Bruton, but Denver is still loaded on defense.

I’d love this team to at least make it back to the AFC Championship game if you could assure me their QB play is even average. But with Mark Sanchez and Trevor Siemian the primary options, that may not happen. The shuffled offensive line might take some time to come together as well, and much of the depth all over the offense is unproven. Make no mistake, even with a great defense this is a vulnerable champion.

The early schedule does Denver no favors. A rematch with Carolina kicks off the season, followed by a visit from Indy and then trips to AFC contender Cincinnati and a Tampa Bay team many expect to be much improved.

I went through the schedule three times, playing out different scenarios in my head to count wins and losses. I never got less than 8 wins, and that’s with the run game sputtering behind three different starting QBs. The peak was 13, and that’s with either a career renaissance from Sanchez or Lynch proving to be Offensive Rookie of the Year and Booker challenging him for that honor. The middle road saw a 10-6 finish, and that’s the path most traveled. Ten wins gets Denver back in the playoffs, and their dynamic defense and wide receiver tandem gives them a chance to beat anyone, anywhere in January. I don’t think they can repeat, but only a fool would write them off. 

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