Last season: 6-10, 3rd in NFC East

Key figures

Scoring offense: 26.3 ppg, 6th in NFL

Scoring defense: 27.6 ppg, 30th in NFL

Turnover margin: +7

The Tom Coughlin-era ended with a whimper, as the venerable coach suffered his third straight losing campaign. Too many close losses plagued the ’15 Giants, who had the best turnover margin for any non-winning team.

Offensively, the Giants are productive but heavily reliant upon the Eli Manning/Odell Beckham combination. Defensively, misfit pieces plagued with injuries and a lack of impact talent have caused ongoing struggles. GM Jerry Reese devoted a lot of resources towards the latter, while promoting Ben McAdoo from offensive coordinator to head coach.

Five questions

1. Can anyone other than Odell Beckham score?

The Giants have one of the league’s preeminent offensive weapons in dynamic wideout Odell Beckham Jr. OBJ is a fantastic wideout, equally capable of making the exceptional catch look routine and making things happen once he gets the ball in his sticky hands. His 96 catches for 1450 yards and 13 TDs topped his 2014 Rookie of the Year numbers. This year he could feasibly get 100+ catches, 1500+ yards and 15 TDs.

The problem for the Giants is, nobody else can score. Rueben Randle finished second last year with 8 TDs, but he’s now with the Eagles. Shane Vereen topped all RBs with 4 TDs, all via the air. Nobody else found the end zone more than three times. That is going to have to change if the Giants hope to stay in the top 10 in scoring and not be so heavily reliant on Beckham.

There is real potential to ease Beckham’s burden with a pair of rookie receivers. Second-round pick Sterling Shepard is absolutely filthy out of the slot, with sharp, quick feet and exceptional body control. He’s not going to run past many, but he can scoot around them. Working Shepard inside of Beckham will be a major challenge for opposing safeties.

I’m a big supporter of undrafted rookie Roger Lewis, and he has already rocketed up the depth chart to getting training camp reps with the starters. He’s got some off-field baggage and must get stronger, but Lewis has game-breaking deep speed. The Bowling Green product might only catch 30 passes, but could get 600 yards and 6 TDs just from that. Without his (rather disturbing but seemingly resolved) personal issues, Lewis would have been no worse than a third-round pick. He’s the vertical threat to exploit the coverage when the defense rolls too hard to Beckham on the other side. Be prepared for a few ugly drops, though.

Victor Cruz should not be counted upon, not after missing almost the entire last two seasons. If Cruz, a former sensation, can get back--and stay--on the field, consider it gravy.

Early indications are Vereen will get more looks out of the backfield, and that’s a positive. He’s an excellent receiver and very good at transitioning from catcher to runner. The veteran isn’t much of a threat on handoffs, however. Will Tye is emerging as a quality receiving option at tight end, catching 42 passes and having little trouble getting open in the seams. His speed offers the potential for more. He’s the best bet to threaten double-digit touchdowns because of his size in the red zone, but that would represent a major step up for the second-year Stony Brook alum. Sixth-round pick Jerell Adams is one to watch, a good blocker who can chip and release well.

New York sorely needs more production from the ground game. While they finished middle of the pack at 4.2 yards per carry (18th), they struggled badly in short yardage situations and failed to produce big plays on the ground. Rashad Jennings scored three of the Giants’ paltry five rushing TDs and netted just six runs of 20+ yards, tied for the fewest of any team leader. Jennings is a solid back but not a special talent. Last year the Giants tried to augment him with a sprinkling of Vereen, Orleans Darkwa but primarily Andre Williams. Expect that to change.

Williams was nothing short of awful, consistently failing to make the first tackler miss and lacking vision and burst thru the hole. If he struggles in the preseason he might not even make the team. Vereen has as much/more value as a receiver, while Darkwa is eminently replaceable as a depth back. That means rookie Paul Perkins will get a chance to prove himself. The fifth-rounder from UCLA is nifty and can bounce cut nicely, but he’s got to show he too can make someone miss in tight quarters and power through a tackle. I expect him to be better than Williams, but the latter is coming off one of the worst RB seasons in recent NFL times. There is still no home run threat out of the backfield. 

2. How much do the newcomers on defense bring?

The defense fell apart last season pretty much across the board.

• 26th in yards per rush
• 27th in completion percentage
• 30th in sack percentage
• 30th in scoring defense
• 31st in yards per play
• 32nd in third down conversions

In short, the Giants couldn’t stop the run, couldn’t cover anyone, couldn’t rush the passer and couldn’t get off the field. To that end, a major influx of reinforcements joins the fold and they will be heavily relied upon to improve all those figures out of the bottom quarter of the league.

Jerry Reese signed three significant free agents, all of whom are astronomical upgrades over their 2015 predecessors. The marquee name is pass rusher Olivier Vernon, who comes from Miami with just 14 sacks over the last two seasons but ranked near the top in QB pressures generated. His speed and active presence off the edge will challenge blockers, and that can only help a healthier Jason Pierre-Paul on the other side. His paycheck indicates the Giants believe he should get double-digit sacks, and that’s certainly possible. They need him to at least match Robert Ayers’ 9 from last year, and it’s worth noting the departed Ayers was a much better run defender than Vernon has ever been. One of the ripple effects here is that Vernon pushes try-hard Kerry Wynn back to the energy reserve role he’s better-suited to manage than a guy seeing 75%+ snap counts.

The big man in the middle is arguably even more important. Damon Harrison defected from the Jets to man the nose, taking over for the aged Cullen Jenkins. “Big Snacks” is a great success story, a small-college talent who overcame bad knees to become one of the best immovable objects in the NFL. You won’t see his name in the stat sheet a lot, but Harrison makes everyone around him better. His ability to intentionally steer the pile to one side to free up the blitzing linebacker, or create more space for an end stunt is exactly the kind of play the Giants haven’t been able to pull off. He will be your high school football coach’s favorite Giant.

The third free agent is the most variable. New York overpaid to lure sporadically great but volatile corner Janoris Jenkins from the Rams. Jenkins is the type of corner who believes he needs to try to pick off every throw his way, even if it means sacrificing a sure quick tackle or trying to bait the quarterback into a risky throw and getting torched with a double move or a pump fake. To his credit, he does make a lot of plays on the ball, but he also has given up more long TDs for more yards than any other player in the league the last three years. It’s worth noting fellow starter Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is also in the top 10 in TD passes allowed, though he’s a more consistent cover man.

3. How about those rookies?

Some rookies will also play major roles, notably safety Darian Thompson and cornerback Eli Apple. Thompson will start right away, while Apple will get plenty of action as the third corner. Thompson will pair with last year’s second-round pick Landon Collins to hopefully square away the longtime issues at safety. The third-round rookie from Boise State is a ballhawk with great coverage instincts and a fine 1-2 step closing burst. At worst, he helps clean up Jenkins’ messes over the top with his range and acumen. The young safety duo has a chance to be very good, very soon, though I do expect some growing pains here and there. Collins impressed as a rookie in run defense, and there was even some talk of moving him into a hybrid LB/S role. Adding a cover specialist in Thompson will help balance the load, as Collins did not look comfortable having to turn and run or choosing angles in coverage situations.

The Giants took Apple from Ohio State with the first-round pick. He’s at his best in trail man coverage outside, using his speed and length to deny throwing angles. Apple is also stylistically diametric to Jenkins; he plays the receiver to the bitter end, not the ball. It will be interesting to see who plays outside and who kicks into the slot when both are on the field. The rookie is a better run defender, though not necessarily a better tackler. Apple’s length and more blanket approach to coverage should keep him outside, but I cringe at the thought of Jenkins gambling and missing inside with Collins as his help. The secondary will be better, but Rome wasn’t built in a day. Getting last year’s impressive (before he got hurt) rookie Mykelle Thompson back as the third safety adds real depth against the run and another strong blitzing option.

A couple of other rookies merit mention. Defensive tackle Greg Milhouse has starred early in camp and that’s no surprise to anyone who watched him dominate the FCS level at Campbell. He could earn Jay Bromley’s role as the interior pass rushing specialist, a role Bromley has not excelled in. If Jonathan Hankins doesn’t play more consistently next to Big Snacks, that role is open for the taking too. Hankins has been okay, but he’s coming off a torn pec.

Fourth-round pick B.J. Goodson will be in the mix at the incredibly unsettled linebacker positions. Washington castoff Keenan Robinson is also in that mix, along with Mark Herzlich and Jasper Brinkley. Perennially injured Devon Kennard, practice squad refugee JT Thomas and oft-discarded Kelvin Sheppard are also competing. Not one of those guys should ever start an NFL game at linebacker, but three of them will indeed start here. It’s easy to see why the Giants are tempted to play Collins at LB and go with a three-safety look, as this is hands down the worst LB corps in the NFL. 

4. Has the injury bug run its course?

No team has lost more expected starter games to injuries over the last three years (h/t Athlon for that tidbit). That is an unfortunate run of rotten luck, though it is compounded by a reliance on several players who have lengthy injury histories.

Obviously it’s impossible to forecast Jason Pierre-Paul blowing part of his hand off in a fireworks accident or Larry Donnell nearly getting paralyzed from a hit, but being so reliant on Victor Cruz, Jon Beason and Trumaine McBride, guys with lengthy injury histories, was playing with fire. Drafting players with preexisting injury issues, guys like Cooper Taylor and Bennett Jackson, was akin to squirting lighter fluid on the tinder. Jerry Reese & Co. got burned.

This misfortune is bound to self-correct over time. Injuries impact the entire league fairly evenly over the course of a few seasons. If the pendulum swings back the other way, New York could benefit from an unusually healthy campaign…for once. The overall depth has improved quite a bit in the last 18 months, which can only help.

5. What changes with Ben McAdoo now head coach?

Tom Coughlin belongs in the Hall of Fame someday for his coaching body of work, but his tenure in New York did not end as well as hoped. Even though Coughlin modified his gruff approach, he just couldn’t push the right buttons often enough in the last couple of years. Some of that is definitely related to not having much in those buttons, but it was time for a change.

Now former Offensive Coordinator Ben McAdoo takes over. His calling card is attention to detail. The man responsible for making Eli Manning the best Eli he can be now has control over the entire team. If his transformative work on the offense carries over, McAdoo is going to be just fine.

Manning has had two of his three best seasons running McAdoo’s offense. From getting the ball out quicker to making it easier for Manning to identify the best target, the tweaks have resulted in big upticks in completion percentage and touchdowns while dramatically lowering his INT percentage.

It’s worth noting the Giants threw the ball about 75 times per season more, or adding about 5 more passes per game. It sparked the offense. Now that McAdoo has responsibility over the defense and special teams as well, it’s right to question if Manning and the offense can continue to excel at such a high level. Eli is 35 and the line in front of him, other than rock-solid C Weston Richburg (headed for All Pro status) and decent LG Justin Pugh, is a problem area. The right side of the line, where Bobby Hart and Marshall Newhouse are battling for tackle and John Jerry underwhelms at guard, threatens Manning’s truly incredible run of not having missed a game in over a decade.

Steve Spagnuolo has not impressed as a Defensive Coordinator. While he’s been hamstrung with injury issues, there are too many instances where he’s just not seeing what the opposing offense is in his defense. Player development is below average. Most of the positional coaches under Spagnuolo are new, an indication that he’s an easy “fall guy” if the struggles continue. That’s not something a rookie head coach needs, certainly not in such a critical media environment as New York.

New offensive coordinator Mike Sullivan is also a rookie, though he’s been the QB Coach and doesn’t figure to change much. The familiarity and relative continuity with the offensive staff should help McAdoo. So will keeping strong Special Teams Coordinator Tom Quinn, who coaxed great seasons out of inconsistent and peculiar punter Brad Wing and veteran kicker Josh Brown, who led the league with his 30-for-32 FG performance and earned his first Pro Bowl berth while finishing fifth in the league in scoring.

Coughlin’s personality and culture is impossible to duplicate. Some players will thrive under McAdoo, while some will struggle with the transition. That’s par for the course. I do think ownership hired the right guy, but it’s important to remember there is a rookie learning curve for coaches, too.

Forecast

I see this Giants team as one about finding balance. While the Manning/Beckham pairing has been fantastic, it hasn’t led to wins. The running game must improve, and someone else must step up to balance the reliance on Beckham in the passing game. Both might be difficult as the shaky (other than C/LG) line returns intact. Defensively, as many as seven new starters can only help even if they struggle to come together quickly. There are still issues, but evening out the wide gap between the offensive production and defensive liability can help mask those holes.

We will learn a lot about this team in the first five weeks. Opening at Dallas, then home for New Orleans and Washington, followed by trips to Minnesota (on Monday night) and Green Bay, is not an easy way for a rookie head coach to start. Those are four of the best passing attacks in the league, with the best rushing attack mixed in for good measure.

If McAdoo’s Giants can come out of that early gauntlet with 3 or more wins, this is almost certainly a playoff team. They get a subsequent sequence of games where they can reel off several victories before the critical two-game NFC East challenge to finish the year, at Philadelphia and then at Washington. I see them in a win-and-get-in scenario there, provided they don’t continue to suffer such a rash of injuries and don’t get buried by the tough early schedule. This is a dangerous team, but not quite sturdy enough overall to win a wide-open NFC East. New York finishes 9-7 but loses out on tiebreakers in the battle for a Wild Card in a middle-heavy NFC.

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