Last season: 10-6, 2nd in NFC North, lost in Divisional Round

Key Figures

Scoring offense: 23.0 ppg, 15th in NFL

Scoring defense: 20.2 ppg, 12th in NFL

Turnover margin: +5

Green Bay is coming off what has to be considered a down year in Titletown. Although they made the playoffs for the seventh year in a row, the offense failed to rank in the top 10 in scoring for the first time in a decade and finished in the bottom third in yards for the first time since 1991.

The core of the team returns intact, as does the coaching staff led b Mike McCarthy. The front office also stayed mostly the same, featuring venerable Ted Thompson and a staff which always has several staffers who get interviewed for bigger and better jobs elsewhere. This organization thrives on continuity, and the hope is largely standing pat helps them recover more than making radical but perhaps unnecessary changes. Will it work?

Five Questions

1. Did Aaron Rodgers get more help?

Last season was perennial All Pro quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ worst. He recorded his lowest QB Rating since taking over as the starter in 2008 and set personal worsts in a number of other statistical metrics:

• Completion percentage of 60.7, career average is 65.1 and had never been below 63.6
• Yards per attempt of 6.7, career average is 8.0
• Yards per completion of 11.0, career average is 12.3
• TD percentage of 5.4, career average is 6.4

Losing top wideout Jordy Nelson to a knee injury in preseason really hurt. Randall Cobb thrust into Nelson’s No. 1 receiver role and couldn’t handle it. Without Nelson to draw coverage attention, Cobb struggled to get open or make big plays. He still caught 79 passes but netted just 829 yards and six TDs, all down considerably from 2014. He’s dynamic in space but couldn’t often get that space because the Packers didn’t have anyone else for defenses to worry about.

Now Nelson is back and should be ready for the start of the season. Rodgers and the Packers desperately need him to be his old reliable self. In the two years prior as a full-time starter, Nelson hauled in 183 receptions for almost 2900 yards and 21 touchdowns. He’s great at working the deeper middle and making mind-meld moves with Rodgers outside the numbers. Nelson has been remarkably consistent as a playmaker and chain-mover. The Packers sorely need him.

Finding a third wideout has been a struggle. Davante Adams flopped when asked to do more. He just doesn’t get open and doesn’t do much after the catch either. James Jones nearly doubled Adams’ yards per catch and found the end zone 8 times to his 1, but the veteran Packer is now in San Diego.

Jeff Janis continues to parlay impressive athletic testing into fan favorite status even though he’s been a bitter disappointment…other than his breakout playoff game. There’s a chance he steps up in his third season, but a broken hand sidelining him for the preseason and perhaps into the season won’t help. He’s caught 4 passes (on 16 targets) for 95 yards in two seasons out of Saginaw Valley State. Optimally he’s a No. 5 receiver and can focus on special teams, where he’s been fantastic. He and Wisconsin product Jared Abbrederis garner an inordinate amount of fan love, but the plain fact is neither is a gameday active on most rosters. If speedy Ty Montgomery is healthy, the third-round pick from 2015 could quickly make fans forget them. Montgomery impressed in his rookie year before a terrible ankle injury, one which required microfracture surgery. His recovery is no given, but if you’re looking for a darkhorse standout contributor here Montgomery is the best bet.

Signing tight end Jared Cook was a smart move. He’s been up-and-down in his Rams' career, but he never had a QB anywhere close to Rodgers. He’s got speed to stretch the seam and the physicality to overmatch safeties. He doesn’t block well, but Cook is a major upgrade in the receiving department from plodding Richard Rodgers.

James Starks is a strong receiving threat out of the backfield. Eddie Lacy’s backup at running back has some fumble issues (5 last year) but surprisingly strong hands catching the ball. He’s one the league’s better No. 2 backs.

Lacy has his annual body shaming episodes, but the 2013 2nd rounder and Offensive Rookie of the Year is a workhorse with great feet and powerful forward lean. He struggled to break off big runs last year; his number of 10+ yard scampers halved from 38 in 2014 to just 19 in ’15. Lacy looked hefty in preseason but also in pretty fine form. As long as he can reliably churn out 4 to 5 yards every first down and finish off red zone possessions in the end zone, Green Bay will live with him weighing north of most tight ends.

Still, much relies on Aaron Rodgers himself. There were plenty of legit excuses and reasons for his decline, but he must own some of it too. There were far too many mechanical breakdowns and poor decisions on his part, both highly uncharacteristic for the perennial MVP candidate. As long as he bounces back the Packers offense will be fine. But if 2015 was the start of a decline, Green Bay is in a lot of trouble.

2. What to expect from the rookies?

A year after scoring in the secondary with Quinten Rollins and Damarious Randall, Ted Thompson once again went defense-heavy in the 2016 NFL Draft.

Randall and Rollins stepped in right away as quality No. 2 and No. 3 corners, even though Randall was a safety by trade. Green Bay probably won’t get anywhere near that level of contribution from this year’s class.

Kenny Clark will see a lot of action along the defensive line. He has the potential to play anywhere from the nose to the 5T in Dom Capers’ 3-4 front, but his best fit is in the Mike Daniels role of rush end. Clark is a high-effort, high football IQ kind of player who can step right into a rotational role. He’s unlikely to show up much on the stat sheet, however.

Kyler Fackrell and Dean Lowry, the third- and fourth-round picks, will also step right into rotational roles on the defense. Fackrell will be groomed as a pass rushing OLB with his fluid movement skills and great closing burst. He wasn’t a dynamic rusher at Utah State, however; the 25-year-old Fackrell had just 5 sacks in his final 25 college games. He can cover well, which could get him on the field sooner.

Lowry is an intriguing fit as a base end. He’s physical, smart and brings good length even with his oddly short arms. Most evaluators, myself included, pictured him as a LDE in a 4-3, not as a 4 or 5T in this kind of defense. When Capers goes to the 4-man front or an overload line, Lowry should be a natural fit.

It’s interesting that Lowry thrust himself into higher prominence by abusing Stanford in Northwestern’s season opener last year. The man he continually whipped happens to be Green Bay’s sixth-round pick, offensive tackle Kyle Murphy. Thankfully Thompson had addressed the backup OT position in the second round with Jason Spriggs.

A very impressive athlete with a lot of long-term potential, Spriggs will serve as the swing tackle as a rookie. That’s good, because his technique needs a lot of work. He will be OL Coach James Campen’s pet project in 2016. Expect to see him start in 2017. Murphy will have to kick inside to guard if he ever wants to see the field. Both Murphy and fifth-rounder Trevor Davis, a wideout from Cal, look bound for the practice squad.

3. Who steps up in the middle of the defense?

Green Bay has filled the hole at inside linebacker by moving Clay Matthews from his optimal outside rushing backer spot. That experiment ends in 2016 even though the hirsute veteran was the best ILB by a wide margin.

Jake Ryan returns at one of the ILB spots, and the 2015 third-rounder was solid in run defense as a rookie. Ryan has limited range and was quickly proven a liability in coverage, but he’s the most instinctive and tenacious run and screen defender the Packers have had inside since Desmond Bishop’s one good year.

Sam Barrington will man the other ILB spot as long as he’s back from a nasty foot injury that wiped out most of his 2015. He’s well-liked and intelligent but cannot afford any lingering loss of explosiveness or range from the foot injury. There is hope fourth-round rookie Blake Martinez steps up as the third ILB or even pushes one of the starters. He’s a stiff, limited athlete but goes 100% on every snap and doesn’t stay blocked.

Losing B.J. Raji up front won’t help the tandem behind him. Even though he’s been overrated for some time, Raji was still a quality immovable object and line anchor. Veteran Letroy Guion is more of an end, though he did fairly capably play nose in place of Raji back in 2014. Mike Pennel is the better run defender but the beefy No. 64 is suspended for the first four weeks.

Rookie Kenny Clark offers potential on the nose but fits better behind Mike Daniels as the primary rush end. Daniels earned a rich new contract by being consistently disruptive in the passing game, but he’s not a good run defender. Clark doesn’t have his upfield dynamism but might anchor better.

The safety spots look solid with Ha Ha Clinton Dix proving to be a tackling machine and Morgan Burnett an underrated all-around safety. Neither makes big plays but they also do a fine job in not allowing many. They’ve got good chemistry and Clinton-Dix is a definite ascending talent.

Green Bay’s defense has to stiffen. They allowed 4.4 yards per carry, tied for 26th in the league. Teams with decent receiving tight ends but especially running backs who factor strongly in the passing game (Arizona, Detroit, Denver, Carolina) found a lot of success attacking the middle of the field.

4. Can special teams improve?

Green Bay has struggled to ever get good punting and placekicking in the same season. Mason Crosby had one of his best years at kicker, making all of his extra points and 4-of-5 field goals beyond 50 yards after making less than half over the previous three seasons.

As Crosby rose, punter Tim Mashtay sunk. The veteran finished 25^th in gross punting and had the worst touchback/downed-inside-20 ratio in the league. He has a legit camp challenger in undrafted rookie Peter Mortell.

The coverage units are solid, but the return game could stand a shot in the arm. A healthy Ty Montgomery would solve a lot, though Janis filled in capably as a kick returner. Punt returns should be open for competition after Micah Hyde finished next to last amongst qualifiers at a paltry 5.8 yards per return. Janis, Montgomery or even fifth-round pick Davis could take over.

There is even some question at long snapper, where Rick Lovato takes over full-time from injured Brent Goode. Thankfully Lovato was fine in his playoff audition.

5. Where did they improve?

It’s an interesting dilemma to be in if you’re Green Bay. They’ve been serious contenders for seemingly the entire 21st century, yet it does seem as if they’re behind Seattle, Carolina and Arizona in the NFC pecking order. Last year they had to rely on a major coaching blunder by Detroit not defending a Hail Mary to even qualify for a Wild Card berth.

They didn’t add much in free agency, as is their custom under Thompson. Jared Cook certainly helps, but the only other NFL vet to join the mix is backup LB Lerentee McCray. He might not even be on the team by the time you read this.

They’re also not apt to get much out of the draft, at least initially. As noted above, Kenny Clark and perhaps Kyler Fackrell are the only rookies likely to see the field a lot in 2016.

Even so, Green Bay did get better in a couple of areas.

Foremost is the pass rush. Moving Clay Matthews back to outside backer instantly raises the bar. He’s one of the most prolific sack artists. Playing him inside put him in more situations where he wasn’t rushing. Every pay he spent in coverage or playing read/react with the running back was wasting his ability to disrupt the opposing offense.

Julius Peppers still has some juice at age 36, leading the Packers with 10.5 sacks last year even though he doesn’t blaze around the corner anymore. Bringing back third OLB Nick Perry will help keep him fresh, and I still hold out hope for Jayrone Elliott to finally contribute more. Fackrell figures in the mix too.

I also think the continuity will help make the offensive line and the secondary even better. All five starters return on the O-line, and the top six in the secondary also come back intact. This is the best offensive line Rodgers has ever had, the bump up from 5.8% to 7% sack rate be damned.

David Bakhtiari should be fine at left tackle, recovered from the ankle injury at the end of last year. Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang have been the starting guard combo since 2011 and blend their divergent talents nicely. Corey Linsley is great in the run game and decent against bull rushers at center, though he could do a better job picking up blitzes. Bryan Bulaga remains a serviceable right tackle and has mastered the art of getting away with holding. Sixth lineman J.C. Tretter could start on a lot of teams, including all three NFC North rivals.

As noted above, Randall and Rollins nicely complete the secondary as the corners behind savvy, speedy veteran Sam Shields. Even better, they all have fairly interchangeable skills. That allows them to mix and match without tipping their hand or giving the offense an obvious advantage. The starting safety tandem is above-average and in their primes, as is Shields. Third safety Micah Hyde is also versatile and won’t hurt the team if he’s forced to play a lot. Another year of these guys all playing together should further tighten an already strong unit.

Forecast

Green Bay remains a popular playoff pick, and for good reason. Getting Jordy Nelson back and adding Jared Cook helps address the deficient passing attack of 2015. The defense should be better, provided the key figures stay healthy.

The Packers have an interesting schedule. The first two games are tough, on the road at upstart Jacksonville and rival Minnesota. A home date with Detroit, who has matched up with them well even when the Lions were worse than now, follows. Then comes a bye before three straight home games. They’re the only team to get four straight games at home. Green Bay then gets 3 of the final 5 at home, though all are returning playoff teams in Houston, Seattle and Minnesota.

Their fate will be decided by the four road games in five weeks in between. Only Washington is a 2015 playoff team and the Packers might even be favored in that one.

In short, the schedule makers all but ensured Green Bay makes another trip to the playoffs. If they fail, it’s either because of injury or because Mike McCarthy didn’t coach well. Then again, they’ve overcome both in the past. Green Bay finished 12-4 and regains their NFC North title belt. They can beat any other team in the playoffs, too.

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