Last year: 7-9, 3rd in NFC South

Key numbers

Scoring offense: 25.5 ppg, 8th in NFL

Scoring defense: 29.8 ppg, 32nd in NFL

Point differential: -68

Turnover margin: +2

The Saints have continued to be a tale of two units. The offense, Sean Payton’s bread and butter, remains one of the most potent in the league. Drew Brees continues to plot his course for Canton, Terron Armstead and Brandin Cooks are emerging young stars, and the backfield by committee continues to pay dividends. This offense has finished in the top 5 in yards in nine of the last 10 seasons while also finishing in the top 10 in scoring every year but one.

Then there’s the defense. Other than an unexpected hiccup of legit greatness in 2013, New Orleans has been absolutely dreadful at stopping the opponent. No team has ever allowed more yards or points in a two- or five-year period than these Saints. Much of the blame gets thrown at deposed coordinator Rob Ryan, but the talent level and durability have both been real issues as well.

New Orleans has finished 7-9 in three of the last four seasons. With Brees nearing the end of his illustrious career, the time is now for the Saints to rise up as they did in 2011 and ’13 and hit double-digits in wins while posing a real threat in the playoffs. For that to happen, a lot of things will need to break right.

Five Questions

1. Can the kicking carousel finally stop?

It doesn’t get much attention outside New Orleans, and even in the local area it probably deserves more scrutiny, but the Saints' misadventures in kicking has been a major problem for years now.

Form John Carney through Kai Forbath, the Saints have employed 7 kickers in as many seasons. Forbath finished last year going 9-for-13 after being signed as a midseason replacement for Zach Hocker, who missed four field goals in six weeks.

A 9-for-13 mark doesn’t exactly inspire confidence, so Forbath will face a camp battle with 34-year-old retread Josh Scobee. The vet had a decent run in Jacksonville but has struggled in recent years. Last year the Steelers pulled the plug when he was just 6-for-10 and missed every kick he tried longer than 45 yards. Placekicking can be notoriously hard to predict, but this competition isn’t likely to produce the long-term answer that has eluded the Saints for years.

It’s odd, as punter Thomas Morstead is consistently one of the league’s better punters. Morstead had a down 2015 but also played through a quad injury and that certainly played a part in his diminished pinpoint control. Long snapper Justin Drescher is also one of the NFL’s best at his craft. Unfortunately their strong play has seldom fed off onto their placekicking counterparts.

2. How much do the defensive newcomers contribute?

Any time a defense performs so poorly, so often, personnel changes are bound to happen. GM Mickey Loomis washed out a lot of ballast, but the new veteran additions all carry some degree of wariness.

The two most important additions both came from the Rams. Middle linebacker James Laurinaitis and defensive tackle Nick Fairley were part of a very strong front seven in St. Louis. The thing is, most Rams observers will tell you they were the two weaker links in that deep front.

Laurinaitis is a solid starter in the middle, better against the run than the pass and not quite as rangy as most teams like in their Mike backer. He might carry bigger value for his leadership and durability. Laurinaitis should also help the league-worst 4.9 yards per carry allowed last year. Stopping the run has been an endemic issue for New Orleans; they have not finished out of the bottom five in yards per carry allowed since 2010. When teams can reliably run to set up 2nd & 5 or 3rd & 1 the scales tip dramatically to the offense, and that’s happened for far too long to the Saints.

Fairley will help with the pass rush, at least ostensibly. That is his forte, creating pressure up the gut with his quick penetration and bullish frame as either a 1 or 3 technique tackle. The rub here is Fairley has two sacks in his last 25 games and remains a detriment in run defense, save the occasional flash play where the runner finds him and not vice versa. Fairley grew up a Saints fan and took less money to play for them, so perhaps he’s finally going to stay motivated longer than a week here or there. I watched every snap Fairley played in his first four years in Detroit and he was so wildly hit-and-miss; he’s a big play waiting to happen for one side or the other. I liked what I saw from him in St. Louis in terms of better positional discipline and sublimating his ego to fit into a strong larger cast. However, if he’s still svelte and under 290 pounds, he’s only a 3-technique pass rusher and that makes him entirely redundant with first-round pick Sheldon Rankins.

Rankins could be the key to a defensive turnaround. An attack dog on the interior, the Louisville product has a great first step. What gives him the chance to be special is what he does in the steps after it. Rankins has a variety of moves and a natural nose for the ball. He was a proven finisher at the college level, and a guy adept finishing pressures--even those created by teammates like Cam Jordan and Fairley--is something New Orleans can definitely use. Jordan netted 10 sacks and remains a fixture at end. The hope is Rankins and Fairley upgrade the interior rush spot enough to free up Jordan to threaten 15 sacks. The Pro Bowler has that kind of ability.

A pair of later draft picks also hold real potential. Safety Vonn Bell probably should start Week 1 even though he’s a third-round rookie who doesn’t have optimal size at 5’11” and 205. At Ohio State, Bell was a playmaker with the cover skills of a corner and the deep range of a free safety. In theory he is insurance in case Byrd doesn’t fully recover or Kenny Vaccaro regresses from his surprisingly competent 2015 to the guy who ran past far too many tackles and couldn’t cover anyone a year earlier. If all three safeties are healthy and playing to potential, I love the concept of playing Byrd, Vaccaro and Bell all together. Both Bell and Vaccaro can line up over the slot or turn and run with any tight end. Bell is handily the biggest hitter of the group. For a team with major questions at corner, playing three safeties might be the best base defense.

I’m a big fan of fourth-round tackle David Onyemata. The Canadian product is largely unknown, but those of us who attended Shrine Game practices in January got an eyeful of a player built like a brick house and with some real football skills. His technique is raw and he must learn countermeasures and coordinated moves, but the potential is there for the Regina grad to start down the road. He has the natural anchor strength to play the nose behind John Jenkins. The investment here isn’t likely to pay dividends early, so temper expectations for a year or two.

New linebackers Nate Stupar and Craig Robertson figure to have more impact on special teams, though Stupar didn’t look in over his head when playing a larger role in Atlanta last year. Neither will replace last year’s rookie pass rusher Hau’oli Kikaha, who added pass rush sizzle but is already out for the season, and possibly longer, with yet another major injury. Losing Kikaha robs the team of any linebacker who is a natural pass rusher. 2015 fifth-round pick Davis Tull, who missed his rookie campaign with injury, will get a chance to make his mark. 

3. How quickly will the stain of Rob Ryan get washed away?

The most important defensive newcomer is Dennis Allen as defensive coordinator. Though technically not a newcomer per se, the former head coach of the Raiders is tasked with cleaning up the dysfunctional, uncoordinated mess left behind by overrated blowhard Rob Ryan.

The last two seasons featured the worst defense in NFL history. No other team has ever given up as many points, yards, first downs or a higher QB rating than Ryan’s Saints.

Allen has only run an NFL defense for one other season, the 2010 Broncos. However, Allen’s background is all defense and actually includes an earlier stint with New Orleans at the dawn of the Sean Payton era. He’s still pretty young at 43 (note, same age as the author), young enough to relate to the players but not seem pandering or awkward. Being with the team last year in an odd advisory role gives Allen familiarity with the talent at hand. And despite the abysmal results, there is some talent for Allen to work with.

Last year’s rookie class featured ILB Stephone Anthony. All he did was set the NFL record for tackles by a rookie. He didn’t produce a lot of impact plays--two forced fumbles and an INT--and was more of a clean-up tackler than instigator at the line of scrimmage, but No. 50 from Clemson was handily the most consistently reliable player on the front seven. Anthony is expected to kick to the Sam role this year with Laurinaitis now manning the middle, and that should help him get his nose onto more plays closer to the line.

Free agent find Delvin Breaux was a godsend at cornerback. The former CFLer showed instincts and aggressiveness in coverage and a natural smoothness that translated well to the NFL. He did his part while high-priced penalty machine Brandon Browner floundered on the other side. At worst, Breaux proved he’ll be a competent No. 2 corner in the coming years.

Bobby Richardson was another score. The undrafted free agent from Indiana was a rolling sack of hammers at defensive end. He was perhaps the only player Ryan’s scheme truly benefitted. His energy and power on the closed end should continue to be an asset even if he fails to match his six sack total. 2015 fifth-rounder Tyeler Davidson showed some disruptive potential, too.

Getting CB Keenan Lewis and safety Jairus Byrd back and healthy can only help Allen. Each is the best on the roster at their respective positions, on paper at least. Lewis had both a hernia and bad knee, which makes his return prognosis a little cloudy. The Saints also get P.J. Williams into the mix at corner after not having the 2015 third-rounder as a rookie due to injury. If Ryan has any excuses, the injury card is the most valid.  

Between the (hopefully) healthy returns from the likes of Byrd, the influx of new talent and addition by subtraction with guys like Browner, Allen has the tools at hand to elevate this defense to the middle tier. Ranking merely 20^th in yards allowed and 22nd in scoring defense would put New Orleans firmly in the playoff mix.

4. Will the passing offense keep rolling?

As terrible as the defense has been lately, Drew Brees and the high-powered passing offense have consistently remained one of the most prolific in league history. Brees would have topped 5000 yards once again if he didn’t miss one game last year.

Brees owns five of the top 10 individual passing yardage seasons in NFL history. He will pass Dan Marino for third on the all-time yardage list by the end of Week 2. He rocketed past Marino last year in career TD passes and remains the all-time leader in completion percentage. His career average of 280 passing yards per game is the best in history. Brees also still has his patented elusiveness; 2015 marked the tenth season in a row where he finished in the top 10 in sack percentage.

He’s 37 now, and the cast around him has changed quite a bit in the last couple of seasons. Robert Meacham, Jimmy Graham and now Marques Colston have all moved on. The new receiving corps appears poised to keep Brees among the league leaders in yards and TDs.

Brandin Cooks enters his third season in New Orleans, and he’s proven worthy of the first-round pick in 2014. With a career catch rate at 65% and the ability to quickly get open on any route on the tree, Cooks is a great fit with Brees. He did more down the field in his second season, and it paid off with 9 TDs and a 13.1 yards per catch average. The Oregon State dynamo is a rising star who should finish as a top ten fantasy wideout as long as he and Brees both stay healthy.

The task of filling Colston’s role as the long widebody falls to second-round pick Michael Thomas. Bell’s teammate at Ohio State has the build (6’3”, 220) and mentality for the job. Keyshawn Johnson’s nephew has a lot better long speed than Colston, too. What he doesn’t have, not yet anyway, is a mastery of releasing out of cuts and locking the ball away as soon as it hits his hands. At minimum Thomas will present a serious weapon in the red zone and on short-yardage situations with his ability to post up and go get the ball.

Willie Snead nearly nailed 1000 yards receiving last year as the deep threat from seemingly out of nowhere. After bouncing around practice squads, Snead blew up when given a chance to work with Brees. He’s got the wheels and the concentration with the ball in the air to do it again. Snead has come a long way from being Kirk Cousins’ favorite target at Holland Christian High School here in West Michigan.

The depth after those three falls off considerably. Brandon Coleman oozes intrigue at 6’6”, but just doesn’t put it all together often enough to be relied upon. He should replicate his 30 catches from last year just out of sheer opportunity. Of the rest of the roster, undrafted rookie--and Snead’s successor at Ball State--Jordan Williams offers the most potential to catch more than five passes.

Losing tight end Ben Watson could be a real issue. His 74 receptions and 6 TDs will not be easy to replace. Loomis signed Coby Fleener to try and fill the hole, but the ex-Colt has a lot more name recognition than actual game. If the ’14 edition, the one in synchronous mind-meld with Andrew Luck after playing together for seven years who averaged over 15 yards per catch, of Fleener shows up, the offense will be even more lethal. The rest of his career has underwhelmed, however, and few fans in Indy were sad to see him depart. Josh Hill and Michael Hoomanawanui (I typed it right without looking!) are both blockers who might not combine to catch 25 passes, as last year they combined for 27 receptions and 196 measly yards.  

One area where Brees and friends could see improvement is in getting more shots in the deep intermediate range routes. Despite finishing fifth in yards per attempt (7.5), the team finished just 13th in yards per completion. Volume and a high completion percentage got Brees a copious amount of yards, but the passing offense needs more explosive plays against more defenses. 

5. How does the rest of the offense shake out?

A healthy Mark Ingram finally lived up to the billing last year of his first-round draft status and Heisman Trophy back in 2011. He earned the bigger workload by averaging 4.6 yards per carry while also catching 50 passes on 60 targets. A shoulder injury ended his season early, just as he finally starting to exhibit consistency and a groove as a runner. Consistency has always been an issue for the Alabama product, and getting a rudder on his uneven production would only help Brees and the passing offense with some balance.

While the Saints are one of the progenitors of the “running back by committee” movement, having a reliable No. 1 makes them more dangerous. Ingram’s versatility and strong work in the passing game should allow him to regain that mantle, but it’s a fragile perch given his injury issues and propensity for just missing on so many runs. Tim Hightower is a good receiver as well and showed renewed vigor as Ingram’s replacement late in the year.

Fleet rookie Daniel Lasco has strong potential as a speed back working outside the tackles if he can stay healthy, which was a chronic issue at Cal. C.J. Spiller will have to impress if he wants to keep his job. With Travaris Cadet also in the mix, will there be a competition or does Ingram solidify himself as a worthy feature back? The answer here is the difference between needing Brees to win games and simply having his potential to win games if needed.

The line continues to shuffle with longtime stalwart right guard Jahri Evans now out of the mix. Fortunately the foundation of the line is in strong shape. Left tackle Terron Armstead continues to emerge as one of the top young talents at his position. It’s hard to believe this will be his fourth season. He is fantastic on screens and getting to the second level on runs, but also gives Brees a lot of time to survey the field without worrying about his blindside.

Right tackle Zach Streif needs a bounceback season after a down 2015. The veteran turns 33 in September, so the rebound might not happen. Even so, he’s a durable presence who knows the offense inside out and can still get out into space well. Sustaining blocks and fanning his feet to the outside were real problems last year. Center Max Unger was strong, allowing just one sack in his first season in New Orleans. As was the case in Seattle, his inability to create movement in the run game is readily evident. Unger is here to keep Brees secure in the pocket and the veteran does a great job at that.

That leaves the guards. Two of Tim Lelito, Senio Kelemente and Andrus Peat will start, but none are natural guards. Lelito fared pretty well at left guard last year but optimally the Grand Valley State alum is a center or the top interior reserve. Kelemente is a right tackle who can maul in the run game but struggles protecting the passer and picking up second-level rushers. He’s ideally a third tackle. So is Andrus Peat, last year’s first-round pick who will also get a shot at starting inside. Peat’s feet often appear cast in concrete but he can really drive defenders once he latches on. The camp battle will resolve the gigs, and the odd man out makes a solid reserve with at least some experience. Keep an eye on rookie Jack Allen, who is a better center than guard but is a master technician along the interior. If he can bulk up just a little, he’s the best guard on the roster in a year.

It will be interesting to see what happens at backup QB. Granted the Saints are essentially sunk if Brees goes down for more than a week, but 2015 third-rounder Garrett Grayson needs to step up and definitively beat out journeyman Luke McCown for the backup job in the preseason. He figures to get the first crack to replace Brees when the future Hall of Famer hangs ‘em up, and it would be nice for the team to know they can trust him.

Forecast

Look at the last five years: 13, 7, 11, 7 and 7 wins. These Saints have been consistently solid, too talented and potent on offense to fall into the lower realms. A little defensive improvement keeps that win floor at 7 as long as Brees continues to work his magic.

There’s a real chance for New Orleans to hit the Week 5 bye at 3-1 or even 4-0. They’ll need to, because they figure to be underdogs in five of the next six games, five of which are against 2015 playoff teams including three against the Super Bowl combatants. They get a surprisingly difficult run of potentially strong defenses late in the year, so the offensive line and young receivers must stay healthy and potent.

I expect a modicum of improvement on defense. Then again, they literally cannot get any worse than the mess Rob Ryan presided over the last two years. If the offense remains top 10 in scoring, and I see little reason to think that doesn’t happen as long as Brees is in control, a realistic rise up to 25th in overall defense makes this a playoff team. The lack of proven pass rush beyond Cam Jordan and the iffy kicking game still concern me, however. So does the improved division around them. Pencil in New Orleans for a middling 8-8 season where they balance some impressive wins with some ugly losses. 

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