Last Season: 5-11, 3rd in AFC South

Key Figures

Scoring offense: 23.5 ppg, 14th in NFL

Scoring defense: 28 ppg, 31st in NFL

Turnover margin: -10

There is a lot of buzz around Jacksonville, as major investments on defense the past couple of offseasons meets with one of the brightest young offenses in the league. Gus Bradley gets another chance to help develop a winner around the core of QB Blake Bortles, WR Allen Robinson, LB Telvin Smith and a host of improving young talent. Adding DT Malik Jackson, CB Jalen Ramsey and several useful depth players this offseason give Jacksonville a much better chance to win.

Years of disappointment are tough to ignore for a franchise that has not had a winning record since 2007 and has five straight years of double-digit losses. Even so, optimism is quite high in a winnable AFC South.

Five Questions

1. What do the defensive newcomers bring?

Dave Caldwell spent significant resources on upgrading the defense. With owner Shahid Khan’s blessing, the Jaguars signed defensive tackle Malik Jackson from Denver (6 yr/$90M) and safety Tashaun Gipson from Cleveland (5 yr/$35.5M). Veteran corner Prince Amukamara also signed and figures to be no worse than the third corner.

Jackson earned his mega deal by being a relentless force against both the run and pass. The ex-Bronco is a perfect fit in the aggressive 4-3 scheme as an interior rusher, though it’s worth noting he is making the transition from a 3-4. Expect to see Jackson lining up all over between a 3 and 6 technique and spearheading the upgraded pass rush.

Gipson is a playmaker at safety. He picked off 13 passes over the last three seasons, taking two to the house. Gipson also broke up 20 other passes as a coverage specialist on a team with an anemic pass rush in Cleveland. He’s subpar as both a tackler and run defender, but the Jaguars desperately need his cover skills and nose for the ball in the air.

Then there are the rookies, a list which includes last year’s first-rounder Dante Fowler after he missed the year with a torn ACL. Fowler will start at pass rushing end and is expected to provide double-digit sack impact. That might be optimistic, but there is no question the former Florida Gator brings a lot more sizzle than Dan Skuta or Andre Branch as rushers. Fowler, the No. 3 overall pick in 2015, proved he could rush inside or outside effectively in college while also setting a heavy edge. Third-round pick Yannick Ngakoue brings pure speed to the table as a reserve rusher, and he’s impressed in camp. Working outside a dynamic interior player like Jackson could free them for a lot of isolations against slower tackles.

Jalen Ramsey will take over a starting CB role after being the No. 5 overall pick out of Florida State. I liked him better at safety but he fits nicely as the sticky cover corner opposite Davon House, who is more of a playmaker but inconsistent in actually covering receivers. Ramsey has the size, speed and mentality to take over as the top corner right away, and he’s also good in run support. Pushing House to the No. 2 role and adding Amukamara as the third CB brings a massive upgrade in depth to the corner position. I love the concept of matching up Ramsey as a slot corner against flexed tight ends or bigger inside receivers, something both Indy and Houston do a lot of within the AFC South. This is the top trio in the division even if Ramsey goes through the expected rookie growing pains. Aaron Colvin is a solid, physical No. 4 once he returns from a 4-game suspension.

Hopes are very high for second-round linebacker Myles Jack. The athletic freak from UCLA was a likely top 10 overall pick--and could very well have gone to JAX at No. 4 overall--if not for a troublesome knee issue. I’m not nearly as high on Jack as most; he’s much more of an athlete playing football at this point, with extremely limited production. Yet he’s got the potential to be a great coverage backer with the ability to blitz the A-gaps and make an impact outside the tackles in run defense. If he comes close to that potential, Jack is a major upgrade over solid-but-unspectacular vet Paul Posluszny in the middle, though he’ll primarily play outside. Jack and Telvin Smith make the swiftest LB duo in the league and figure to be the primary nickel package set. With Posluszny still reliable between the tackles against the run, this unit should be a lot better if Jack can stay on the field.

Todd Walsh is a rookie coordinator, though he came with Bradley from Seattle and has served as the DL coach. He knows the holdovers and won’t rock the boat schematically. Given the improved depth, expect more mixing and matching with the offensive personnel. That can only help the 31st-ranked third down defense.

2. Just how good is the offensive skill position talent?

As Tony the Tiger would say, they’re grrrrreat! Led by Allen Robinson, Jacksonville has one of the best, deepest packages of receivers and runners in the league.

Robinson is the key, a legit All-Pro at wide receiver. Last season’s 80 catches for 1,400 yards and 14 TDs were no fluke. His size, speed, body control and strength with the ball in air make him lethal all over the field. The 2014 second-rounder from Penn State led the league in receptions of at least 20 yards. He’s also a good perimeter blocker, notably when his quarterback tucks and runs.

Allen Hurns has proven to be a worthy No. 2 opposite Robinson, catching 10 TDs of his own last year. He’s 6’3” and physical on the outside, but he often does his best work from the slot. Expect to see more of Hurns lined up inside Robinson. The third-year pro from Miami runs great routes and finishes well as a runner after the catch. With Julius Thomas an above-average receiving tight end flexed out on the other side, the Jaguars present a huge (figuratively and literally) trio of targets effective in both the short range and deeper down the field.

Thomas was last offseason’s primary offensive addition. After missing time early with a broken hand, Thomas finally looked like the prized free agent late in the year. He can stretch the seam with his speed but also does a great job of framing himself on comeback routes.

This year’s primary offensive addition is running back Chris Ivory. All he did was lead the AFC in rushing last year in New York, though his 1,070 yards is an admittedly meager total for such an honor. He won’t top the league again, but that’s primarily because he will share carries with young T.J. Yeldon. The rookie averaged over four yards per carry last year and showed some burst. Between Ivory’s power and Yeldon’s more finesse style (despite being the same size at 225 pounds) the Jaguars have a strong 1-2 punch. Yeldon proved himself a solid receiving option with 36 catches and decent pass protection, too. Denard Robinson remains a potential dynamo as the No. 3 RB and gadget play maestro, though he’ll need to play better than he did last year when he went down on first contact too often.

The Jaguars even have promising depth at receiver beyond the Allens. Rashad Greene showed promise as a fifth-round rookie and also serves as a solid return specialist. He’s at his best working underneath on clearout routes. Bryan Walters is a sure-handed slot guy, a possession-type who gets open quickly. Marqise Lee was a second-round pick just two short years ago and still has solid potential if he can get healthy (stop snickering, Jags fans). He might not catch a pass but third TE Nic Jacobs is a solid blocking option.

3. Which role players step up?

Between the likes of Robinson, Ivory, Ramsey, Thomas and Jackson, this team finally has some legit upper-tier talent. Having difference makers on both sides of the ball is critically important, but the Jaguars also need some lesser players to step up and have strong campaigns. Successful teams always get role players who rise up.

Some of the best candidates:

- Ryan Davis, the backup Otto backer after moving from DE. He’s got a higher ceiling than Dan Skuta and could thrive in a part-time role off the ball.

- Marqise Lee, if the slot wideout can ever get healthy. The concept of the speedy Lee working inside Robinson is very appealing. This is probably his last chance to salvage a Jaguars career.

- Jason Myers, the kicker. He was inconsistent as a rookie but did make 3 of 4 FGs from beyond 50 yards. Even with all the weapons the Jaguars were only average in the red zone and often sputtered between the 40 and 25. A strong, confident kicker could make a lot of hay here. It would be nice if he didn’t miss so many extra points…

- Johnathan Cyprien, the starting strong safety. He’s never become the playmaker the team hoped when taking him in the early second round back in 2013, but he’s still got the potential for a career year as he chases a new contract. If he can’t, James Sample and Josh Evans are both capable of doing the same.

- Marcedes Lewis, the long-tenured tight end. With so much focus on Robinson, Thomas and Hurns the smart veteran could see a lot of red zone looks. His role has steadily declined but he’s still capable at 31 years old of an unexpected production burst of 30 catches and 5 TDs.

- Mackenzy Bernadeau, the No. 6 offensive lineman. He’s the only quality depth up front and can play every spot but center in a pinch, though he’s a natural left guard. Injuries happen, and the Jaguars can ill afford to have their OL depth beyond him tested. 

4. Can Blake Bortles take the next step?

Blake Bortles enters his third year on a positive upswing. While maintaining his completion percentage at just under 59%, the 2014 No. 3 overall pick raised his yards per attempt by over a full yard (6.1 to 7.3) and surged his TD/INT ratio from a putrid 11/17 to a solid 35/18.

The aforementioned strong receiving corps gets a lot of the credit from the national media, but that ignores real progress in Bortles. His footwork got better, notably when having to move off his initial spot and reset. He looked more comfortable on timing routes and hit guys at the right place at the exact right time more frequently.

There is still a lot of room for improvement. Foremost is protecting the football. Those 18 INTs are still far too many. Bortles also put the ball on the turf a league-high 14 times, luckily losing just 5 of those fumbles.

Third downs is another realm for improvement. Bortles completed just 50% of his third down passes and looked more skittish in the pocket in those situations. The third down conversion rate overall did improve from 31% to 35% but that’s still in the bottom quarter of the league.

Then there are the sacks. In just two seasons Bortles has been sacked an outrageous 106 times. He’s led the league in times sacked in both his NFL years. While the offensive line bears its fair share of the blame, Bortles runs into too many sacks and holds the ball too long. He doesn’t help himself behind the line nearly as well as he needs to.

Hopefully the line will perform better in 2016. As long as free agent left tackle Kelvin Beachum is fully recovered from ACL surgery, it’s hard to imagine the pass protection not improving. Beachum proved a solid blindside blocker in Pittsburgh while playing in front of Ben Roethlisberger, whom Bortles resembles in both size and style.

If Beachum is good to go, Luke Joeckel slides to left guard. That’s an upgrade over Zane Beadles at that spot and also a real chance for redemption for Joeckel. The No. 2 overall pick in 2013 out of Texas A&M, Joeckel was overmatched by any rusher with more than one dimension outside. He’ll be more protected inside, but it also plays to his strong run blocking.

Brandon Linder will take over from free agent bust Stefen Wisniewski at center. He’s also coming off injury (torn labrum in shoulder) but Linder was strong at right guard as a rookie in 2014 and cannot be any less effective than Wisniewski in the pivot. Jeremy Parnell at right tackle remains a serious liability in pass protection, though A.J. Cann was decent as a rookie. He’s inconsistent but Cann showed some ability as a recovery blocker, an underrated attribute.

With all those weapons and a line that should be somewhat improved, it’s time for Bortles to assert himself as a top 10 overall quarterback. The tools are all there. If he can’t thrive in these conditions, he likely never will in Jacksonville.   

5. Does the paper talent translate to the field?

This is almost unquestionably the most improved team in the AFC... on paper. Even if Bortles is the same middle-tier QB of a year ago, if this team approaches the full potential of what this roster holds these Jaguars are a playoff team.

That’s where Gus Bradley and the coaching staff come in. Now in his fourth season at the helm, Bradley’s teams have produced 4, 3 and 5 victories despite higher expectations, especially in the last two campaigns. The fact Bradley’s a defensive-minded coach and the defenses have been largely abysmal--Jacksonville hasn’t finished above 24^th in scoring, run or pass defense in Bradley’s tenure--doesn’t help his cause.

The head coach is widely respected and well-liked by his peers and by the media. Some of that is a function of Bradley running very scouting-conducive Senior Bowl practices. Yet if the Jaguars are poor enough to earn the Senior Bowl coaching honor again, it won’t be Bradley at the helm.

Player development is something he and his staff must master. There is a whole cadre of young talent here, some of it very high-end potential. This is also the deepest team Bradley has had by a wide margin. I suspect the Madden crowd will like playing as the Jaguars, too.

All that creates very real pressure. The players won’t acknowledge it but they know it’s there. The coaches do too. Coaxing the best, or at least something close to it, out of this talented but not flawless roster is an imperative. Thus far we’ve never seen the ability to do that by Bradley or his lieutenants.

Forecast

It’s easy to get excited about these Jaguars. The offense looks explosive and diverse, while lots of resources were smartly devoted to upgrading the defense. The young core, including the coaching staff, has grown together and is just hitting peak athletic primes. Moreover, the AFC South remains full of opponents with very real flaws.

The schedule is manageable, with three of the first four at home (including IND in London Week 4). They also finish with a very favorable run of games that includes winnable road games in Detroit and Buffalo, followed by home dates with Denver and Minnesota before facing all three AFC South rivals to close the season.

If Bortles can protect the ball and all those impressive weapons stay healthy, the offense here is good enough to outscore most opponents. I love the new additions on defense, particularly Ramsey and Jackson. This is the deepest team in Jacksonville in years. They’re also playing with a sense of urgency under Gus Bradley, who sorely needs a winning season to save his job. I believe Mr. Khan’s patience and open wallet will be rewarded. Jacksonville breaks the 9-year playoff drought and sneaks into the AFC postseason at 10-6 courtesy a 5-1 record within the AFC South.

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