Last season: 12-4, won AFC North, lost in Wild Card round

Key Figures

Scoring offense: 26.2 ppg, 7th in NFL

Scoring defense: 17.4 ppg, 2nd in NFL

Turnover margin: +11

Marvin Lewis and his Bengals have roared to five straight postseason berths thanks to one of the deepest, most balanced rosters in the league. Last season saw a breakthrough to 12 wins and near-MVP caliber play from Andy Dalton. The defense consistently made plays when called upon, notably in the red zone.

Alas, most folks will only recall the playoff immolation against the Steelers, one of the biggest mental breakdowns in NFL history. Dalton’s injury was a downer but the overall strength of the roster was still good enough to break the playoff seal. Instead, boneheaded mistakes from several players pissed it away.

The pressure is on Lewis, Dalton and Co. to get the franchise’s first playoff win since 1991. Most of the key pieces are still in place and the organizational stability certainly gives them a chance, but there are nagging questions about just how good the Bengals really can be.

Five questions

1. What do the rookies bring?

The Bengals didn’t make big waves in the draft, but they quietly addressed some needs. Alas, the injury bug has already hit part of the class.

William Jackson was the best cover corner and playmaker in the draft, and landing the Houston product at No. 24 overall was a stroke of luck. Even though they’ve drafted many corners recently, Jackson has the talent to stand out if he can improve his tackling and angle choices. Unfortunately he will miss at least part of the year with a pec injury suffered in training camp.

The most impact will come from Tyler Boyd, a polished wideout from Pittsburgh who should start right away in Marvin Jones’ old role. Boyd isn’t fast or overly quick, but his footwork in routes is fantastic and he proved he can extend out and make difficult catches in traffic. The hands and feet along the sideline will remind Bengals fans of Jones, now in Detroit. If he clicks with Dalton early, Boyd has a good chance to catch 50+ passes as a rookie.

Another wideout also looks like a keeper in sixth-rounder Cody Core. He was overshadowed at Ole Miss by Laquon Treadwell but proved he could get open deep and make catches away from his body. He could take over the Mohamed Sanu role sooner than later.

Linebacker Nick Vigil fits nicely into the Bengals defense. He goes max speed, max effort on every play. It was easy to find No. 41 at Utah State on game films; just look for the ball and Vigil shows up, quickly. He looks to be the primary backup at the outside spots but can also man the middle. He blitzed the A-gaps well in college, a skill that might come in handy here.

Fourth-round guard Christian Westerman and seventh-round safety Clayton Fejedelem will both be reserves. Westerman is a great insurance policy for starting guards Clint Boling and Kevin Zeitler. He even can play a little center. Westerman was the most technically sound interior lineman at Senior Bowl practices but must get a little stronger. Fejedelem flew all over the field at Illinois and played his best against good opponents. I see him becoming a very good third safety, but his rookie contribution will come on special teams. He made four special teams tackles in Cincinnati’s second preseason game and that was no fluke.

2. How does the defense shake out?

The Bengals are very deep across almost all of the defensive positions. Even so, there are some vulnerabilities amidst a unit which finished second in scoring D but just 11th in yardage.

It all starts with perennial All Pro candidate Geno Atkins at defensive tackle. Atkins was healthy again in 2015 and took out his pent-up frustration from a down 2014 on opposing offenses. He bagged 11 sacks and was consistently disruptive, even against the frequent double-teams. No. 97 is in his prime and remains one of the best interior pass rushers in the league.

Domata Peko will start on the nose next to Atkins once again. He’s an unexceptional player but does a lot of the little things very well. He and Atkins have a nice synergy and play off one another well. The team was hopeful fourth-round pick Andrew Billings would at least share the role with Peko this year, but the burly rookie from Baylor is out for the season with a knee injury. Billings was a potential first-round pick before whispers about the knees helped sink his status.

Pat Sims is a versatile, solid reserve. He can crash the pocket from the inside but also shed the block and impact the run. Brandon Thompson has the game to see more action but he’s out for the first part of the season with a torn ACL. That opens the door for high-energy Marcus Hardison to emerge off the practice squad. I like the energy from undrafted rookie David Dean too.

Ends Carlos Dunlap and Michael Johnson are a long and lethal combination. Dunlap led the team with 13.5 sacks thanks to his ability to destroy solo blocks with his package of strength, burst and balance. He can win inside or around the edge and sniffs out the cut block as well as any DE. Johnson isn’t as dynamic of a pass rusher but plays in space exceedingly well for a 6’7” guy. He has developed into a strong run defender.

The spots behind the dynamic DE duo are a big question. Margus Hunt is a great curiosity as an Estonian shot putter, but his football game just hasn’t come along. His roster spot should be in jeopardy, but the team just doesn’t have anyone better right now. Will Clarke, like Hunt, has outstanding length and strength but also not a lot of football acumen. Wallace Gilberry is now in Detroit. Undrafted rookie Ryan Brown needs practice squad time. If Johnson or Dunlap go down with injury, it’s a significant hit. None of the linebackers blitz very well, though Vincent Rey does have some “spy” skills against mobile QBs.

Cornerback is full of draft investment. There are four first-round cornerbacks on the team. Adam Jones is the veteran of the group and comes off a renaissance season where his ballhawking skills really shone. He was one of the stickiest cover corners in the league. It’s easy to focus on his mindless emotional meltdown in the playoff loss, but he’s still very much got game.

Dre Kirkpatrick (2012), Darqueze Dennard (’14) and William Jackson (’16) are the other first-rounders. Kirkpatrick has nice length at 6’2” and plays the ball in the air well but needs to be better before the throw. Dennard found a home in the slot before suffering a shoulder injury. He needs experience but brings upside and tenacious effort. Availability is the one ability which has proven troublesome. As noted above Jackson suffered a torn pec in camp and will be out for at least part of the season, which opens up more roles. Josh Shaw can be a quality No. 4 corner as well as a special teams stalwart, but he’ll have to beat out Chris Lewis-Harris, who played a lot in the slot a year ago. Even without Jackson and without a true lockdown corner, this might be the best CB group from 1-6 in the league.

Shawn Williams will have to step up at strong safety with Reggie Nelson leaving. The 2013 third-rounder has played pretty well, showing better coverage instincts than expected after being known as a run thumper in his Georgia days. George Iloka opted to stay in Cincinnati, a key re-signing. He’s quietly become a very good all-around safety, improving his lateral range and quickness to diagnose in coverage. They don’t have any proven depth behind the starters, though the aforementioned Fejedelem could surprise.

Finding the right mix of skills and mentalities is critical for Defensive Coordinator Paul Gunther as he sorts through some crowded positions. Replacing the suspended Vontaze Burfict at weakside backer the first three games won’t be easy. Vincent Rey is solid but not as dynamic as the volatile Burfict. Rey Maualuga got better in the middle in coverage but didn’t make as many plays in run defense close to the line. They let A.J. Hawk depart but actually skewed older by replacing him with Karlos Dansby, who brings leadership and zone coverage awareness but doesn’t have the burst as a pass rusher from his Arizona heyday anymore. His value comes as a calming mentor to Burfict and Maualuga and might not play much once Burfict returns, especially if rookie Vigil is ready.

3. Can Andy Dalton continue to progress?

Andy Dalton enters his sixth year with the Bengals coming off his best campaign. He’s finally unquestioned as the leader; the plaintive cries, both internal and external, to replace Dalton are quieted.

Dalton scored career highs in just about every statistical metric:

  • Completion percentage (66.1)
  • Yards per attempt (8.4)
  • TD percentage (6.5)
  • INT percentage (1.8)
  • Yards per completion (12.7)

All of those figures place Dalton firmly in the top 8 quarterbacks last season, most in the top 5.

He led the team to double-digit wins for the fourth year in a row and has never missed the playoffs in his five seasons since taking over as a second-round rookie out of TCU in 2011.

Of course his season was cut short thanks to a broken thumb, preventing Dalton from getting the playoff monkey off his back. That monkey clings to everything about this franchise, but nowhere more than on the starting quarterback.

It won’t be easy to even sustain those great figures from 2015. He lost his No. 2 and No. 3 wideouts in Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu, who combined for 98 catches. Their replacements are rookie Tyler Boyd (see above) and return specialist Brandon Tate and his two receptions in 2015. Brandon Lafell can help but the ex-Patriot is sidelined through (at least) the preseason with a broken hand.

In addition, stellar receiving tight end Tyler Eifert is on the PUP list as he recovers from ankle surgery. The latest reports have him out until October. Having Eifert healthy was a huge boon for Dalton, as No. 85 is his primary red zone threat and true difference-maker in dictating matchups. Matching the 13 TD output from 2015 was unrealistic even if Eifert played all 16 games, but catching 60 passes for 800 yards and 10 TDs was very realistic.

Even worse, No. 2 tight end Tyler Kroft is also out for the first few weeks with a knee injury. C.J. Uzomah and his one reception as a fifth-round rookie are going to start. This not only impacts the receiving routes but also pass protections. Paired with the uncertainty at right tackle (more on that below) and the new mix of receivers and it’s easy to see Dalton struggling some early.

Expect a lot of A.J. Green to try and pick up the slack. He’s one of the most physically gifted wideouts in the NFL. Green was the first-round pick in the same season as Dalton, and he’s topped 1000 yards and 13.9 yards per catch every season. Thrice Green has hit double-digit TDs. There’s a fair chance Green leads the NFL in targets in 2016, and he could hit 90 catches and 1500 yards for the first time. The talent, notably a blend of length, speed and hands, certainly make it possible.

It’s incumbent upon Dalton to stay at his high 2015 level. While it’s hard to go up, the Bengals can ill afford much of a regression from the career spikes either. A.J. McCarron is (gulp) one of the league’s better backups, but this team will go as far as Dalton can carry it.

4. What happens with the rushing offense?

Few teams are as dedicated to the run as Cincinnati. The Bengals have been in the top 8 in rushing attempts per game every year since 2012. The running game wasn’t as potent in 2015, however.

The yards per rush dropped a full half a year from 2014, down to 3.9 per carry. They also registered just 30% of their first downs on the ground, down almost 10 points. This comes despite the same running back tandem of Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard and a fairly stable offensive line.

Hill fell off from his dynamic rookie season where he averaged 5.1 yards per carry and had 28 carries of at least 10 yards. His sophomore slump brought those figures down to 3.8 yards per carry and just 18 runs of 10+ yards (just one topped 20 yards) despite getting just one fewer carry. There were also some fumbles, including the untimely one which launched the playoff death spiral.

He wasn’t hitting the hole as quickly, and Hill is not the kind of runner who can improvise well when the hole isn’t where he expects it. The run blocking up front is above average, notably on the left side with tackle Andrew Whitworth (consistently one of the league’s best) and guard Russell Bodine. Sometimes Hill finds the crease quickly, but he didn’t do that as much in his second season and didn’t break tackles at the second level nearly as well either. Hill remains a very effective short-yardage and goal-line back.

Bernard nearly matched Hill’s yardage total (794 to 730 on the ground) in 80 fewer attempts. His elusive, slashing style works well in quickly reacting to blocks up front and Bernard has the ability to make a would-be tackler grasp for air. His receiving skills are a nice bonus; Bernard has caught at least 43 passes and over 70% of his targets in all three of his NFL seasons.

There is depth with Rex Burkhead, a jack-of-all-trades back who can play slot receiver or H-back. There is little finesse to his go-hard game, but Burkhead is hard to tackle and knows his role in the offense well. Cedric Peerman is a special teams Pro Bowler who also can catch a swing pass or grind inside for short yards.

The uncertainty at right tackle impacts the run game more than the passing offense. Andre Smith is now in Minnesota, and replacement Cedric Ogbuehi is more of a pass blocking specialist. Swing tackle Jake Fisher, if he can ever stay healthy, also fits that bill. Expect a lot of movement blocks and TE/FB chips and rubs, something H-back Ryan Hewitt does very well.

Hill needs a rebound campaign, and the interior of the OL must stay healthy and potent. Having a balanced offense is a critical piece of Cincinnati’s success as Dalton thrives on play action and in more advantageous down/distance combos. This should be one of the better rushing attacks.

5. Why aren’t there more questions?

This is a serious question. For the lack of national love and attention they get, this is a strikingly solid team. Even so, most power polls and preseason prognostications have Cincinnati as nothing more than a potential Wild Card. Many have them as a third-place team.

I understand the lack of playoff success breeds skepticism. It should. Until Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis win a postseason game, something neither has done, the Bengals are a tough sell. The humiliating self-destruction last year rightly blunts optimism as well.

Yet so much of a talented and diversely skilled team returns intact. It was hard to find enough valid question marks to write about here. Nine starters return on each side for a team that has made the playoffs five years in a row, including a 2-time Pro Bowl quarterback with one of the best wideouts and best receiving tight ends at his disposal. The defense is deep both up front and in the secondary. Even with some assistant coaching turnover there is strong continuity; Offensive Coordinator Ken Zampese was promoted from within, and his primary job has been the passing game.

I guess this is a sign that we know who these Cincinnati Bengals are. Maybe the more apropos question should be, is continuity a great idea for a team stuck in a frustrating spot of being not quite good enough to take the next step? It’s a big year for Lewis, Dalton and Cincinnati to prove the Brown family’s loyalty and dedication is valid.

Forecast

For Cincinnati, it’s all about the postseason, but a tricky early schedule puts the playoffs in legit question. They open on the road against the aggressive defenses of the Jets and Steelers, then come home for Denver and Miami, two other teams that can get after it defensively. For an offense that won’t likely be at full strength, managing the first month is critical.

Fortunately for the Bengals, the defense looks to be real good once again. This is where the balance and Marvin Lewis’ steady hand pays off. If the D can keep the Bengals afloat even when the offense sputters early, look out above. Cincinnati should be favored in every game following the Week 9 bye with the possible exception of a trip to Houston in Week 16.

I see this team splitting the first eight games as Dalton and the offense lean on A.J. Green and a solid run game while the defense carries more of the load. As long as they’re healthy, Cincinnati surges following the bye to seven more wins and an 11-5 finish. The playoff win drought stands a fair chance of ending after 25 years, too. Of course I said that last year…

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