2016 Nfl Season Preview Houston Texans

Last year: 9-7, win AFC South

Key Numbers

Point Differential: +26

Scoring Offense: 21^st

Scoring Defense: 7^th

Bill O’Brien guided the Texans back to the top of the AFC South, a status Houston had not attained since 2012. They rode an oft-dominant defense and overcame a 1-4 start, thanks in no small part to five wins in six divisional games. The final three games saw the Texans rout Indianapolis, Tennessee and Jacksonville by a combined 80-22.

The playoffs did not go well. Kansas City routed the quarterback-challenged Texans 30-0 as Brian Hoyer threw 4 INTs and passed for just 136 yards. The ongoing QB issues forced the most dramatic offseason change in Houston, as GM Rick Smith opened the vault for Brock Osweiler. The hope is the Super Bowl winner from Denver can elevate the passing game to a more consistent competence and do what he did with the Broncos in riding a deep, physical defense to greatness.

Five Questions for the Texans

1. What happens with the rushing offense?

Longtime bellcow back Arian Foster is gone. Of course he was in absentia most of last season as well and the Texans ran the ball just fine in his 12-game absence. Following the bye in Week 9, Houston got back to the strong run game in averaging 128.5 yards in the final eight contests.

Running the ball has been the key to success for Houston for years, going back to the Gary Kubiak era and Foster’s prime. The offensive line has always been an integral part of that, and there are significant changes on the interior. Right guard Brandon Brooks, far and away the best run blocker on the team, is now in Philly. Starting center Ben Jones, who was merely adequate, went to the Eagles too.

I love the addition of Nick Martin at center. The second-round pick from Notre Dame should be a strong upgrade over Jones in the run blocking department. He doesn’t have quite the range but is more functionally strong and plays with an edge that will help compensate for losing Brooks. Veteran Jeff Allen takes over at right guard. He’s primarily played tackle but his style should work well at guard. Allen is smart, moves his feet well and seldom cedes ground. If underwhelming left guard Xavier Su’a-Filo builds off his strong finish to 2015, the blocking up front will be good enough for rushing success. The third-year pro finally looked healthy and inspired during the strong stretch run.

Now for the guys toting the rock. Lamar Miller came over from Miami, where the fans will tell you he was criminally underutilized and miscast by a dreadful coaching staff. There is some truth in that, but Miller didn’t exactly shine when given chances either. He went down on first contact too much and failed to create yards that weren’t well-blocked. His speed and size are similar to Foster, but the elusiveness and vision need to improve before Miller comes close to replacing No. 23. He is a strong receiving threat, pulling down 47 of his 57 targets and showing the ability to make tacklers miss more in space.

Miller will be backed up by Alfred Blue, who was occasionally solid as the starter but fits much better in the No. 2 role. Blue topped 100 yards in two of the final three games and just missed in the playoff blowout. He lacks vision at times, and that really showed in games against Cincinnati and Tennessee. When he’s attacking north/south and can see the hole, Blue is a tough guy to tackle. When he doesn’t see it immediately or has to bounce laterally to get there, the LSU product is a sitting duck. Fourth-round pick Tyler Ervin fits nicely as a scatback who might get more yards receiving than rushing.

2. How much can Jadeveon Clowney contribute?

The No. 1 overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, pass rusher Jadeveon Clowney has struggled mightily to live up to the hype. A litany of injuries have limited him to just half of Houston’s games over his first two seasons, and they’ve limited him when he has played. From his back to his knee to his foot to a concussion, Clowney is a fixture on Bill O’Brien’s weekly injury list.

Reports out of Houston are that Clowney is as healthy as he’s been as a pro, and that is a definite positive. The Texans desperately need him to contribute a lot more than the 4.5 sacks and 32 tackles he’s chipped in thus far.

The hope is he can regain the freakish speed, flexibility and quick power he displayed to dominate collegiate foes and start terrorizing NFL quarterbacks. His run defense has proven ahead of his pass rush, and while that’s important, that’s also not why the Texans are paying him big money or drafted him in lieu of so many other talented choices.

Clowney needs to stay on the field, and to make those snaps count. If he doesn’t bag at least 9 sacks--double his 2015 total--the defense will not have as sharp of teeth as hoped. The 6 passes defended was a nice bonus, but the Texans need him to help balance the defensive field around J.J. Watt.

At least John Simon and Whitney Mercilus have proven capable insurance. Mercilus, a former first-rounder, netted 12 sacks in a breakout ’15. He appeared to finally coordinate his upper and lower body on pass rush moves. The Illinois product would be an outstanding asset as the third rusher behind Clowney and Watt, even better than as the No. 2 he was a year ago. Expecting a repeat is probably asking for disappointment, but that’s where Clowney comes in. If they can combine for 20 sacks, and that’s eminently possible if both are healthy, this defense goes from very good to elite. Simon stepped up nicely as a two-way defender with positional versatility in his first full season in Houston, and he provides strong depth. There is very little behind him, however.

3. Just how good is the secondary?

There might not be a more underrated positional group in the entire NFL than the Texans cornerbacks. And that’s even with modest expectations for enigmatic Kareem Jackson, who battles inconsistency from week to week and even drive to drive, let alone year to year.

Johnathan Joseph remains one of the league’s very best with the ball in the air. His 22 passes defended ranked near the top of the league, and his 26 career INTs are tied for 1th among active players. The 1-year vet is also one of the most reliable tacklers at CB, both in the pass game and the run game. He’s never been in the top tier of elite CBs, but Joseph remains solidly in the next group and offers an all-around game eminently worthy of being a No. 1 corner.

Jackson couldn’t reproduce his breakout 2014, but he still had a run of impressive games. Quicker outside guys continue to give him trouble, though Jackson has improved his anticipation and reaction time from his bust-like early career. He’s coming off an ankle injury that forced him out for a month and has not played 16 games since 2012, so expect some shelf time for the 2010 first-rounder.

Fortunately the Texans used their 2015 first-round pick wisely in selecting Kevin Johnson. Even while playing through a broken wrist and foot, Johnson definitely proved he belonged. Now that the second-year man from Wake Forest has had some offseason surgeries to get his body right, I expect bigger things in 2016. He’s also gained some needed bulk, which should help him with the more physical receivers who pushed him around at times.

That’s a very solid threesome at a critical position. The fact they play behind a strong pass rush only helps them out. A.J. Bouye had some positive moments in his third season, and he’s a quality fourth corner. Houston even has a couple of youngsters I like way down the depth chart in Robert Nelson and Cleveland Wallace, one (or perhaps both) won’t even make the final 53-man roster.

Safety is not as strong, but when former corner Andre Hal moved back and took over for the disastrous Rahim Moore the situation improved. The Texans surrendered just 12 points per game in the nine games after benching Moore, who is now in Cleveland. It was 28 ppg before the move.

Hal fits nicely as a cover safety, relying on his corner background and using his plucky energy well. He’s now up over 200 pounds, which can only help his dealing with the unexpected position change. Veteran Eddie Pleasant did just as good of a job mentoring his young running mate as the third safety.

Quintin Demps as the other starting safety is the question mark. As my friend Pat Starr of State of the Texans sagely advised me, Demps’ consistency and propensity to be really bad at times is a real thorny issue. The vet played well down the stretch but a repeat performance is not a sure thing. Ideally he’s an insurance policy. Perhaps second-year Kurtis Drummond or rookie K.J Dillon can take prove worthy and not force the Texans to rely on the aging, inconsistent Demps.

Because Hal is still not a given, this could be the downfall of the defense. Houston also doesn’t get much help from the inside backers, as asking Brian Cushing to flow in space and move backwards is akin to parking a motor home in a compact car garage. Benardrick McKinney did show some promise as a second-round rookie, though he too is better with the play in front of him and not to the side or behind. The depth at inside backer is not too promising, even with Akeem Dent’s experience.

4. Can J.J. Watt do it again?

The superhuman defensive end remains the league’s preeminent impact defensive player. Watt has amassed 69 sacks over the last four seasons, earning first-team All Pro each time. He’s the two-time reigning AP Defensive Player of the Year, and he’s earned it in part by forcing a league-high 15 fumbles over the same four-year period. He’s broken up an incredible 18 more passes (45) than the next-closest defensive lineman, too.

He’s now 27, entering the time at which most historically dominant defenders hit their peak production. It’s hard to imagine Watt doing even more, but the last few years have taught us to never underestimate the Wisconsin native and graduate. Watt has never missed a game despite some maladies that would sideline lesser men.

Defensive Coordinator Romeo Crennel takes full advantage of scripting the entire defensive scheme around Watt’s considerable gifts. Assuming Watt continues to terrorize opposing offenses for 15+ sacks and superlative run defense, Crennel’s plan is wise. But what if Watt slips even a little, or misses a game or two with an injury? It would almost certainly be catastrophic.

Watt might need to be superhuman once again. The Texans took a big hit with underrated Jared Crick, the other starting defensive end, fleeing for Denver. Crick didn’t do much as a pass rusher but was an above-average run defender and took pride in being what he was instead of trying to capitalize on Watt’s considerable star. That’s an invaluable quality.

There will be a big camp battle to replace Crick. My money is on Christian Covington, a Rice product who lacks length but uses his strength and leverage well. Jeoffrey Pagan and former Bengal Devon Still, he of the heroic daughter, will also be in the mix. Houston might not be done adding competitors here, either.

5. Is Brock Osweiler the answer at quarterback?

The simple answer here is he only needs to be more consistent and competent than the wildly hot/cold Hoyer. And I strongly believe Osweiler can be that, though that reflects more on my low opinion of Hoyer (or God forbid Ryan Mallett!) than any potential greatness from the 6’7” gunslinger.

If Osweiler embraces being a prudent distributor, this passing offense could be outstanding. DeAndre Hopkins has emerged as a top 10 overall wideout despite sporadically strong but predominately lousy quarterback play. “Nuk” has the speed to win deep, the size to win jump balls, the strength to get free and do damage once he makes the catch. His 111 receptions and 1521 yards both netted Nuk third in the league, and he finished 11 of those catches in the end zone.

Now Nuk has some intriguing running mates. Saddled with the likes of Nate Washington (47 catches) and Cecil Shorts (42 in 11 games), Hopkins often had to bear the weight of the entire passing offense on his shoulders.

Enter first-round pick Will Fuller, a healthy Shorts and intriguing weapon Braxton Miller. Fuller is a one-trick pony as a vertical threat, but his pony does that trick exceedingly well. The fastest wideout at the NFL Combine, Fuller consistently got open deep at Notre Dame despite teams shading over-the-top help his way. His speed is both instant and long. His hands are disturbingly unreliable--I watched Fuller struggle to catch cleanly even in pregame warmups in South Bend--but the mere threat of blazing past the defense fundamentally impacts the entire field.

And that’s where Miller should thrive. The former Ohio State quarterback has electrifying agility and playmaking ability. He showed it off in his first season as a wideout for the Buckeyes and built upon it with a strong Senior Bowl week. Like Fuller, Miller also has some issues catching the ball, and his route running needs dramatic improvement. Still, he should prove quite dangerous out of the slot and on jet sweeps, bubble screens and the like. Every time he touches the ball is a potential big play. The Texans haven’t had this varied of an aerial attack…ever. Potentially.

Much depends on Osweiler. In his first dose of extended playing time, he showed an ability to carve up more passive defenses that couldn’t rush him. He must get the ball out more consistently quicker, a trait that does in fact improve (for most) with experience. Osweiler’s accuracy can be streaky but he seldom has wild misses or completely blown reads, two characteristics Texans fans grew fatally tired of with Hoyer.

All the eggs are in the Osweiler basket. The backups are Tom Savage and Brandon Weeden. Savage has yet to throw an NFL pass in his two seasons, and both Browns and Cowboys fans wish Weeden never threw any for those franchises.

Forecast

Last season this team won 9 games despite getting about 10 quarters of good QB play. They did that without their featured running back and offensive leader and also adjusting to life without all-time great Andre Johnson at wideout.

Brock Osweiler might not be great. He shouldn’t have to be. The offense has significantly upgraded the supporting cast, and Nuk Hopkins has proven he’s a star in the making at wide receiver. The Osweiler we saw in Denver’s Super Bowl run is more than good enough to lift this offense to at least middle of the pack in scoring and efficiency.

The defense looks very, very good. J.J. Watt gets the attention, but this is a strong all-around unit with some depth. They also have good chemistry and stability in a scheme which demands both. As long as the middle of the field defense is strong, the corners and outside backers are more than worthy of keeping this defense in the top five overall.

Put those hands together. An upgraded offense pairing with one of the proven best defenses, with legit star power on both sides of the ball. The special teams are nothing special, but they’re not bad enough to drag the team down. This is quite clearly the team to beat in the AFC South.

The schedule is manageable, thanks in part to a very favorable early slate. Four of the first six are at home, although Kansas City and Indianapolis figure to be dangerous foes. If they emerge from that stretch 4-2 or better, this team should control the AFC South. The rough patch follows the Week 9 bye, with 4 roadies in five games. That concludes with trips to Green Bay and Indy, a game that could very well decide the division title on Dec. 11^th.

The Vegas line is 8.5 wins. These Texans should have that by Week 15. I’ll be shocked if this team, assuming the key pieces stay healthy, doesn’t win at least 10 and capture the AFC South once again. Put me down for 11-5 and hosting a playoff game at NRG Field.

Tags: Houston Texans, IQ

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