Last year: 3-13, last in AFC North

Key Figures

Scoring offense: 17.4 ppg, 30^th in NFL

Scoring defense: 27.0 ppg, 29^th in NFL

Point differential: -154, last in league

Another year, another massive overhaul of both the front office and coaching staff for the Cleveland Browns. The Johnny Manziel experiment is mercifully, tragically over. Last year’s Browns won three games, none of them over a team that finished with more than 5 wins. Both the offense and the defense ranked in the bottom 5 in both points and yards, and only 4 teams had more giveaways. It was a disheartening 2015 on the southern shores of Lake Erie.

Instead of burning yet another first-round pick on yet another project at QB, new personnel gurus Sashi Brown and Paul DePodesta went for young veteran Robert Griffin as a reclamation project. That appears to be a prudent decision regardless of whether RGIII pans out. The draft was heavy on wideouts and help on the defensive front. Both were much-needed. This is a long play by the new management regime. Hopefully with the energized Hue Jackson taking the reins at Head Coach, they make enough progress to convince owner Jimmy Haslam to give this team time to come together from top to bottom. The goal in 2016 should be consistent competitiveness and player development, not a surprise run at 7 or 8 wins. 

Five Questions

1. Do they finally have a decent QB in Robert Griffin?

By now everyone is familiar with the infamous Cleveland QB jersey of shame. Since the team returned to the field in 1999 the Browns have used 24 different starting quarterbacks, all of them represented on a jersey with a lot of crossed out names. Robert Griffin III will be No. 25, assuming the former Washington signal caller is healthy and picks up the offense.

Griffin was fantastic as a rookie back in 2012. An injury suffered in Washington’s playoff game stymied his development, and then Coach Jay Gruden’s trust in Kirk Cousins was rewarded last year with a division title. RGIII’s derring-do style just didn’t fit, and struggles with durability dogged him. Now he gets a chance for redemption in Cleveland.

First off, if Griffin doesn’t win the starting job in the preseason over 37-year-old incumbent journeyman Josh McCown or fourth-round rookie Cody Kessler, the party is indeed over. He might as well retire. McCown could still be a serviceable backup but as a starter he’s nothing more than an inning-eater in a lost season. Kessler is the weakest prospect of the recent spate of disappointing USC quarterbacks dating back to Matt Leinart. If either wind up starting over Griffin these Browns might very well threaten the winless 2008 Detroit Lions as the worst team in modern NFL history.

Good RGIII can definitely elevate this team. The guy who was better than Andrew Luck when both were rookies, the guy who led the NFL in both yards per attempt (8.1) and INT percentage (1.8), the guy who also ran for over 800 yards and 7 TDs, the gregarious leader with the high-wattage smile and savoir faire, that Robert Griffin makes these Browns a whole lot better. We have only seen brief glimpses of that Griffin since. We didn’t see him at all last year as he rode the bench in Washington behind Cousins and one of the guys on the infamous Browns starter jersey a few spots up, Colt McCoy.

My initial reaction to Cleveland acquiring Griffin was positive for both parties involved. New Offensive Coordinator Pep Hamilton coached Luck in Indy and also at Stanford, so he understands how to integrate an athletic, versatile QB into his run-heavy offense. After the Johnny Manziel debacle, Cleveland desperately needs a positive, more proven leader and field general, and Griffin is both if nothing else. Some in Washington chided his “tuned out” conduct after he lost his gig, but he handled adversity in a way that didn’t really rock the boat. Because the entire coaching staff, save retread 2013 Defensive Coordinator Ray Horton, is brand new, it’s a fresh start for all at a time when continuity is a foreign concept in Cleveland.

At worst, Griffin will be a one-year experiment for a team with low expectations to begin with. If he’s even close to what he was as a gilded rookie, Griffin just might be the long-term solution this franchise has been searching for since Bill Belichick got tired of Bernie Kosar and his “diminishing skills”.

2. Are there enough playmakers on offense?

It would help Griffin substantially if the Browns had better, more proven playmakers around him. While the latest edition of the front office is trying, making chicken salad out of eggs isn’t easy.

The top two returning wideouts are Taylor Gabriel and Andrew Hawkins. They are carbon copies of one another; both are 5’7” and play under 175 pounds, quicker than fast and known for precise, often electrifying routes. Gabriel and Hawkins even had nearly identical production last year, as Hawkins posted 28 catches for 241 yards while Gabriel logged 27 and 276. Neither scored. It’s great to have one, as either could be a great slot weapon. Here in Cleveland, their redundancy just doesn’t make a lot of sense.

Holdovers Marlon Moore and Terrelle Pryor wouldn’t make almost any other active roster. This is probably the end for Pryor, who has never been able to translate the freak athleticism he once showed as Ohio State’s quarterback to the NFL level.

Now for the eggs. The Browns drafted four wide receivers in April, and all will have very real chances to see the field as rookies. First-rounder Corey Coleman is likely to lead the team in targets and yards per reception. He’s got a similar game to ex-Brown dynamo Josh Gordon, though the rookie from Baylor isn’t as big. Coleman is an outside blazer who had little trouble getting behind any defense in college, but he’s also got a physical bent to his game that should translate well on shorter and more complex routes in the NFL. If you play fantasy football, Coleman is the only Browns receiver you even want to consider drafting before the season starts.

Ricardo Louis, the next wideout taken, is a serious project not unlike Pryor. The fourth-round choice from Auburn has nice size and speed but otherwise bears little semblance of the literal definition of the word “receiver”. He struggled badly with drops and poor routes after only getting a chance to really play for the Tigers once Sammie Coates (who might not make the Steelers in his second season) and Duke Williams (an overhyped head case who quit) both left. Other than catching quick-hit throws and using his athleticism to make things happen after the catch, Louis offers very little.

Rashard Higgins has the opposite issues. The Colorado State fifth-rounder has giant, secure mitts for hands and runs excellent routes with body control and precise timing. Unfortunately he’s slower than a lot of tight ends and at 6’1” and 185 pounds doesn’t have the bulk or strength to handle the more physical NFL coverage, or blocking assignments. I like Higgins as a possession receiver who can move the chains on third down, but I’m not sure he offers much more than that. If he clicks with Griffin, and he might, Higgins could catch a lot of passes that strangely don’t have a big impact on the game.

Jordan Payton comes from UCLA as a solid jack-of-all, master-of-no trades type of receiver. He has just enough speed to stretch the field, just enough physicality to challenge the middle. I like the value in the sixth round; Payton strikes me as a useful No. 4 receiver who should make Browns fans forget about Brian Hartline, who was not welcomed back.

There is more proven help at tight end. Gary Barnidge led the Browns in receptions (79), yards (1043) and TDs (9) while emerging as one of the league’s better receiving tight ends. It was quite a leap given his prior career highs were 13 catches and 242 yards, but he’s an optimal fit for Hue Jackson’s offense as a chip-and-release TE who can also flex out on occasion. Barnidge should lead the Browns in TD catches once again thanks to his strong hands and wide catch radius, both of which are augmented in the red zone. Rookie Seth DeValve offers an intriguing young receiving option at tight end. Cleveland even has a real youthful battle on its hands for the reserve spots with DeValve, E.J. Bibbs and 2015 6th round pick Randall Telfer, who is now healthy after missing his rookie year.

Second year running back Duke Johnson is a key. He impressed as a receiver (61 receptions) but didn’t break as many tackles as expected for a player with his shiftiness and explosive speed. As a runner, Johnson lacked patience and seemed to struggle with spacing. He was a dynamo in college at hitting the edge and bursting up the field but also the hard plant cut. Neither showed in his rookie year. I was a big Duke Johnson fan in his draft class so I’m optimistic he will take a jump in his second year.

He’ll need to, because leading returning rusher Isaiah Crowell is unreliable both on and off the field. His heavy-footed charging can be effective between the tackles and he has better speed than advertised. Yet he has battled issues in identifying his assignments and finding the proper run lanes going back to his vagabond collegiate days. He and Johnson are a good 1-2 punch in theory. The Browns desperately need them to come close to great together for this offense to escape ranking in the low 20s once again. None of the other RBs currently on the roster (it’s July 19th) would have much of a chance to even make most other teams’ practice squads.

If the offense sputters, kicker Travis Coons looks like he can be the long-term answer. He only missed four of his 32 field goals last year…all blocked. His field goals need more lob wedge and less 2-iron. Punter Andy Lee had a down year in 2015 but remains one of the five best punters in NFL history. Really.

3. Do any of the recent draft disappointments turn it around?

When I first came up with this question, I had three main players in mind. The more I looked at the recent drafts, the more astonished I was at just how ravaged the Browns have been by bad drafts, misfit regime changes and endemic instability.

My initial selections here were edge player Barkevious Mingo, cornerback Justin Gilbert and center Cam Erving so I will try hard to just focus on those three. All should be playing critical roles, but thus far none have proven they are deserving of increased responsibility or anything close to their first-round draft statuses.

The Browns are desperate for pass rush help (more on that below) and the most obvious answer is Mingo. The No. 6 overall pick in 2013, he has seven sacks in three years. The player taken one spot before him, Ziggy Ansah, matched that meek output in one calendar month last year. KeKe is trying to bulk up, hoping to add muscle to help him shed blocks and not get so staggered by initial contact. It cannot hurt, but he must also work on actual pass rush moves instead of just trying to run in a straight line either inside or outside the tackle. Mingo has acquitted himself nicely as a run defender and can handle his coverage assignments adeptly, but the Browns sorely need him to be a lot more than that. If he doesn’t get at least 5 sacks in 2016, it’s hard to see Mingo with the Browns beyond this season. He had zero last year.

Gilbert was an obvious mistake from the get-go. His coaches at Oklahoma State continually expressed frustration with his lack of positional discipline and underwhelming approach to film study and practice at his craft. Still, a prior Browns regime made him the No. 8 overall pick in 2014. He’s an outstanding athlete, not a football player. Deposed Head Coach Mike Pettine knew as much and refused to reward his “effort”. Gilbert barely played in his second season after his lazy, feckless technique and seeming befuddlement at opposing route concepts became too much of a detriment. Now is when Cleveland and Ray Horton need Gilbert to finally see the light and become at least competent enough to be the third outside CB.

With the solid but overrated Joe Haden coming off injury, Tramon Williams fighting a losing battle with father time and K’Waun Williams locked in as the slot corner, Cleveland has a great thirst for another outside CB to step up. Gilbert looks to get the first crack, but I’m more optimistic for Dolphins castoff Jamar Taylor or Pierre Desir, whom I actually rated higher than Gilbert at the position in that 2014 draft. Some roster projections will have Gilbert not even making the roster, but I think he gets one more year. At least he’s got some potential as a return man. It would be nice if Desir took a big step forward, something that has yet to happen for the small college fourth-rounder.

Erving was taken in the first round last year with the understanding he would take over for Alex Mack this year. The Browns took the long view with Mack, an All-Pro center who fled for greener pastures in Atlanta following yet another lost season at FirstEnergy Stadium. Erving was a tackle at Florida State, a solid prospect on the edge but almost universally seen as a player who could thrive inside. He flashed that ability in the latter half of his senior season for the Seminoles. As a rookie in Cleveland, Erving got plugged in at guard and the results were as disastrous as Charlie Frye’s adventure in the 2007 opener versus Pittsburgh.

Now Erving slides into the starting center role. I expect him to be better than he was at the unfamiliar guard position, but his inability to firmly set up his base or handle any sort of power moves does not foster optimism. Having Joel Bitonio back at left guard can only help, as he is one of the best young left guards in the league. His injury helped create the ripple effect that thrust the unready Erving onto the field. John Greco is a serviceable right guard, though he will be called upon to help to his outside as the Browns try to replace Mitchell Schwartz at right tackle. The potential replacements there, notably former Seahawk Alvin Bailey, don’t inspire a lot of confidence in pass protection. If fourth-round rookie Shon Coleman winds up starting, light some prayer candles for Griffin. At least Joe Thomas remains his durable All-Worldly self at left tackle, though a poor start could ignite those trade talk fires once again.

Playing just one position can only help Erving after he has shuffled all over lines for the last two years. Offensive Line Coach Hal Hunter is a good one, and he’ll need to prove that over once again. Of this threesome, Erving stands the best chance to emerge as a positive story.

Some would throw nose tackle Danny Shelton into the mix, but I thought he played well enough as a rookie. He’s certainly not part of the problem going forward. It would be nice to see more from Xavier Cooper and Ibraheim Campbell in their second seasons at defensive end and safety, respectively. All three of those guys should start, and I really like Campbell’s potential in replacing playmaking safety Tashaun Gipson. Recent history is not in their favor, but the law of averages just might be.

4. Who rushes the passer?

This was already a pressing issue even before returning sack leader Armonty Bryant tore his pec in a weight room incident and is lost for the season. Granted his six sacks represented an abnormally low total for a team leader, but that only illustrates just how dire an issue the pass rush is for the Browns.

Cleveland finished 28th in sack percentage last season. The lack of a consistent rush took its toll on the secondary, which had to cover longer while also facing fewer beleaguered throws. That helps explain the 31st ranking in yards per attempt allowed, though blown coverages by Haden, Gilbert and friends certainly played a big role there too. There is potential for improvement up front.

The aforementioned Mingo could be a pleasant surprise, but not one to count on. The best bet comes from some combination of veteran Paul Kruger and second-year edge rusher Nate Orchard. Kruger is bigger and has a longer track record, but stylistically both are similar as outside backers: stronger than fast, high effort, not a lot of flash or quickness after the initial burst. They’re both optimally clean-up sack guys in the NFL. Kruger proved he could be more than that back in 2014. Cleveland could do better, but this duo should hit 12 combined sacks while sharing a role.

Second-round pick Emmanuel Ogbah will be counted on to bring the juice right away. He was wildly productive in his final season at Oklahoma State. Alas, Ogbah is like Orchard in that he’s not very elusive or crafty as a rusher, and he doesn’t have the lateral agility to do much more than try to blaze around the tackle. He has shown he takes to coaching so there is upside. I’d like him a lot more if he had his hand in the dirt at the 6 or 7 technique than playing a step off the line as Horton often asks his edges.

A-gap blitzes are a fine way to help generate pressure when the edges aren’t all that reliable. Christian Kirksey has his moments in that capacity, but he’s more of a clean-up guy and much better in coverage. New inside backer Demario Davis was more of a run defense specialist with the Jets, but he was an excellent blitzer in his college days and seems a youthful upgrade over Karlos Dansby.

Rookies Carl Nassib (third round) and Joe Schobert (fourth) can help, too. Nassib is stiffer and more upright than Ogbah but he’s got some craftiness with his hands and shoulders. Schobert is a guy who grew on me in the draft process and is probably the most athletic guy outside of Davis. He’s a wild card who could be a pleasant surprise, though it could be hard for him to carve out playing time in this crowd.

5. What does Hue Jackson bring to the table?

Browns fans are used to the congenial fluffy lauding of a new head coach by now. Various incarnations of the front office have propped up everyone from Butch Davis to Rob Chudzinski. Other than one brief spike under Davis, it’s all been a Potemkin village. The emperor has always wound up naked and humiliated.

Having said that, I am a Hue Jackson believer. Hue is intellectually smart but also savvy in dealing with all types of people. He has utilized a variety of offensive styles and schemes, tailoring his approach to what fits the available personnel best. I love his variety of experience, working under Fun-n-Gun Steve Spurrier but also hardnosed O-Line specialist Tom Cable.

He’s got experience with chaos, and that’s a fairly apt description of what he’s walking into in Cleveland. Remember, he was part of Bobby Petrino’s staff in Atlanta when that loser lied and quit in the middle of a season. Jackson’s one prior shot at head coach ended after one 8-8 season in Oakland under the increasingly loopy Al Davis. In Cincinnati he crafted one of the most efficient and diverse offenses with a largely average QB in Andy Dalton, a player he definitively developed into a much better passer and field general in his two years down I-71. In his prior Cincy stint he successfully managed the OchoCinco/Houshmandzadeh pairing, crafting an offense around their skills.

But the number one reason why Hue Jackson has a chance to succeed in Cleveland is because of how he handles the players. Jackson is beloved by players but also highly respected by them for his even treatment and relatable, upbeat personality. Nobody ever said that about Mike Pettine or Eric Mangini. Just watching Jackson work the sidelines during Shrine Game week, after he just got the job, and seeing how everyone from so many different teams and backgrounds was drawn to him and sincerely felt happy for Hue, that proved how much respect and admiration there is around the league. All sorts of people genuinely believe in him and want him to have the same kind of success Mike Zimmer had in leaving Cincinnati for a head coaching job in Minnesota.

Forecast

There is potential for these Browns to be quite a bit better than the 3-13 debacle last year. But that’s been said many times over the last 15 years. Cleveland has won more than 5 games just once in the last eight seasons. The litany of blown draft picks, which goes far beyond the quarterback fiascos, has robbed this team of the depth of core talent most teams have. All the regime changes have left a mishmash of mismatched talents.

I’m a believer in Hue Jackson, and I’m fairly optimistic Robert Griffin will be the best Browns QB since the Derek Anderson miracle year back in 2007. The young playmakers from the last two drafts could gel into something pretty nice. But it isn’t likely to happen in 2016. Even madcap owner Jimmy Haslam has intimated he’s willing to suffer another rough season for future improvement. That sure seems like the case here, and the reality of the schedule only reinforces this.

Five of the first seven are on the road. The two home games are Baltimore and New England. The bye comes in Week 13, a terrible break for a young team that could use an earlier regroup. The finale is at Pittsburgh, and most of the teams on the back half of the schedule look like playoff contenders who all have much more defensive talent than these Browns. I’d like to say I can see Cleveland winning five or six games because I do like a lot of the young talent, but the cold reality is this is almost certainly one of the two or three worst teams in the NFL. Again. The Browns finish 4-12, but flip that to 2-14 if Griffin starts less than 10 games. 

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