2016 NFL Season Preview Los Angeles Rams

Last season: 7-9, third in NFC West

Key Figures

Scoring offense: 17.5 ppg, 29th in NFL

Scoring defense: 20.6 ppg, 13th

Turnover margin: +5

The Rams return to Los Angeles after 20-some years in St. Louis coming off an underwhelming 7-9 season. GM Les Snead and Head Coach Jeff Fisher have assembled pieces of a very good team, notably at defensive line and running back. Realizing they need something better at the most important position of quarterback, they rolled the dice and mortgaged the future on Cal’s Jared Goff. The California boy represents the future in Los Angeles, though he may not take over right away. Fisher’s teams are always physical and not fun to face, and traditionally have strong special teams. These Rams are no different, but do they have enough to break the 7-win barrier for the first time in a decade?

Five Questions

1. Can the line carry the defense?

Led by Aaron Donald, the Rams' defensive front four might be the best overall positional unit on any defense in the league right now. That’s still true even after losing starting end Chris Long and third tackle Nick Fairley.

Donald is arguably the most impactful defensive lineman in the league. He’s certainly the most disruptive interior force. His stout strength, incredible quickness and active hands are a major problem for opposing blockers. The 2014 Defensive Rookie of the Year bagged 11 sacks in his second season, but he also was a more consistent force against the run. He’s a leading candidate for Defensive Player of the Year.

Michael Brockers is an excellent complement to Donald inside, a smart and physical presence who never gets caught out of position. He’s a facilitator, a guy willing to soak up a double team to free up those around him. But Brockers, another former first-round pick (2012), is great at shedding the block and finishing the tackle against the run.

Even without Long, whose play declined with injuries and age, the Rams are still well-stocked at defensive end. William Hayes is one of the more underrated talents and the Rams rewarded him with a nice new contract. Put him down for 5-8 sacks and above-average run awareness. Getting Robert Quinn back from a back injury will be a nice boon for the pass rush. He had 40 sacks from 2012-14 but was limited to just 5 in eight games a year ago. Back surgery is always tricky, and he’s still not a full go as we enter preseason, but if he’s even close to being the speed demon off the edge of years past, this Rams front is ridiculously and diversely talented.

Eugene Sims is a strong No. 3 end who can also slide inside, which is important as the team doesn’t have much depth inside. Quinton Coples was wildly miscast as a pass rush specialist in his Jets days, where New York played him at outside linebacker. He’s a 4-3 LDE and could be a good one, though his complete lack of quick-twitch athleticism will limit what he does. Here in LA, the Rams don’t need him to be more than he is. Expect a nice career revitalization from the former first-rounder. Young Ethan Westbrooks has some sizzle potential deep on the depth chart.

Los Angeles is built on having a dominant defensive line. They will give serious trouble to teams with weak offensive lines, an important way to stay competitive with the teams ahead of them in the NFC West pecking order. Opponents with poor blocking and/or QBs who cannot handle pressure are in real trouble against Donald and friends.

2. How will Jared Goff fare at quarterback?

The Rams will do whatever they can to delay the transition to No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff taking over the reins of the offense, but make no mistake: Goff will be the starting quarterback sooner than later. NFL teams simply don’t have the luxury of sitting the top overall pick because it leads to uncomfortable questions…

Did we make a mistake in taking him?

Why is he not ready?

How is he not better than Case Keenum?

Coaches abhor those impetuous inquisitions, and Jeff Fisher knows this very well. Sure, there’s the off chance Keenum has the unexpected breakthrough fluke a la Nick Foles in Philadelphia. But Keenum is a placeholder, albeit a better one than widely advertised. Jared Goff is the key to the future but also anything more than resigned mediocrity in the present.

I was not a big Goff fan in the draft process. He was my 51st overall player, my fifth-rated quarterback. My brief scouting summation was “skinny Matthew Stafford without the awesome arm strength”, and that comes from watching seven games last year and three from the prior season at Cal.

Goff’s selling points are clearly visible even to my critical eyes. He has great touch and strong velocity on shorter and intermediate throws. He’s excellent at throwing receivers open against man coverage and isn’t afraid to attack single coverage down the field. When he’s in rhythm Goff can carve up even very strong defenses with precise throws all over the field. I love how he can slide around in the pocket and quickly reset himself, ready to use his quick release almost immediately. If you watch the Arizona State or USC games from last year, it’s easy to see a No. 1 overall pick and future franchise QB at work.

One of Goff’s biggest issues is his streakiness. Much like Stafford in Detroit, the young gunslinger almost invariably has a rough patch in every game where he misses five of six throws, often wildly, and does little positive for a stretch of 3-4 drives. Even in college Goff threw an unusually high percentage of interceptable balls, often missing high over the middle and short on deeper routes outside the numbers. Zone coverage, especially when linebackers drop or the secondary shows man at the onset, remains tricky to Goff (as it does most young QBs). Even though he does have decent feet, there are a lot of “deer in the headlights” sacks and an inordinate amount of fumbles. Both must cease quickly.

Los Angeles is heavily invested in Goff for the long haul. The commitment could very well pay off down the line, but it isn’t likely to pay big dividends in his rookie campaign. Keenum doesn’t have near as high of a ceiling but does know the offense and generally makes good decisions. He’s not a bad choice as a placeholder and mentor for Goff, and for at least the first couple of months the 28-year-old Keenum gives them a better chance to win games. He did go 3-2 in his starts last season, turning the ball over just once while nibbling away at what opposing defenses gave him.

3. Who makes plays on offense?

One of the ways to carry a young quarterback like Goff, or a limited veteran like Keenum, is by surrounding him with dynamic playmakers. Alas, GM Les Snead has failed miserably on that front other than the blind squirrel syndrome with stud running back Todd Gurley.

Gurley is clearly the straw which stirs the Rams drink. The first-round pick from Georgia lived up to the billing as a rookie in 2015, proving he was fully recovered from a knee injury that ended his college career prematurely. Getting over half the carries, Gurley posted over 1100 yards and scored 10 TDs. There were several big runs where he flashed the open-field jets, but what was perhaps most impressive was how consistently he avoided the first tackle attempt.

The Rams leaned heavily on the ground game for good reason. Multiple good reasons, actually. Foremost is they were quite good at it. Only two teams had a better yards per carry average than the Rams’ 4.6. In addition, they ranked high across the board in pretty much all rushing metrics…

38% of first downs from the rush, 3rd in league
46.6% rushing percentage, 5th
122.2 yards per game, 7th overall but 2nd in final four games

As long as he stays healthy, Gurley should be on the short list of potential rushing champions. The Rams balanced his hard-charging style with a mix of end arounds and jet sweeps from Tavon Austin, who averaged over 8 yards every time he touched the ball as a runner.

Thus ends the list of proven skill position assets in Los Angeles. This is why they scored a disastrously low 11 passing TDs last year; 17 different teams had more than that in any given four-game period.

Austin is the No. 1 wideout, though he’s optimally a No. 3 working exclusively out of the slot. His 52 catches and 473 yards last year were both career highs. Getting just 9.1 yards per catch from your top receiving weapon is embarrassingly inadequate in today’s NFL. Despite being one of the fastest and quickest players in the league, Austin runs predictable and pedestrian routes and goes down on first contact too easily.

It would be nice if Kenny Britt were a more consistent threat as the bigger, downfield target. There are times, such as the Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay games last year, where Britt plays quite well. Even if the numbers are modest, in those games he made an impact with his strong deeper routes and physical style. Yet in two full seasons with the Rams he has just three 100-yard games. Last season he netted under 50 yards ten times. Some was on the QB play but Britt just doesn’t always seem interested. That’s been a knock on him his entire career, and entering his eighth season that is extremely unlikely to change.

Every other receiver has been at least two spots on the depth chart higher than they should be. It’s time to end the failed Brian Quick experiment; other than a handful of games at the start of 2014, the lanky Quick has been a colossal disappointment as a second-round pick in 2012. The only other receiver on the current roster who caught a ball last year is Bradley Marquez, a player most fans of the team were still Googling deep into last season.

Two rookies could help restore some order right away. Pharoh Cooper is similar to Austin in size and explosiveness. The fourth-rounder from South Carolina is not as fast or shifty but runs better routes and has a little physicality to his game out of the slot. That’s not ideal for Los Angeles, but if he can reliably catch a 12-yard square in or a 15-yard deep out Cooper will play a lot. He’s currently missing camp time with a quad injury.

Michael Thomas has a chance to be a real seventh-round steal. He has the acceleration, tracking ability and long speed on the outside this team has sorely lacked for years. He fell in the draft for valid reasons, notably real struggles with more physical coverage and had some untimely drops at Southern Miss. Thomas offers the best chance for a real impact receiver in LA. I’m bullish on his chances.

Of the other street and undrafted free agents, the only one I would even think worthy of practice squad status is Paul McRoberts. Big Marquez North and Duke Williams have far more name recognition from SEC fans than actual NFL skills.

The situation at tight end is little better. Lance Kendricks is a good No. 3 tight end, but here he’s the No. 1 with Jared Cook now gone.

Again, a pair of rookies will get every chance to shine. Temarrick Hemingway comes from a small school but has big game potential. His ability to flex out and stretch the seams could get him on the field a lot as a sixth-round rookie. He is not a blocker whatsoever. Tyler Higbee made plays all over the field at Western Kentucky. He’s also more like an oversized wideout than traditional tight end, but the Rams will happily take that if he and Hemingway can combine for 40 catches and 5 TDs, which is eminently possible. Higbee could get that on his own if he masters the playbook fast enough.

A stable offensive line should help, inasmuch as stability lifts up a cast that would peak at being adequate. They found a keeper in right tackle Rob Havenstein, who made the all-rookie team and proved NFL-ready in run blocking. Tim Barnes is emerging as a capable center, while former No. 2 overall pick Greg Robinson is on the right path after major struggles early in his career. The guards are still big questions and there is no depth behind sixth man Garrett Reynolds, but at least all five return if Rodger Saffold can get healthy.

4. Who fills the holes on defense?

Two of the venerable veteran stalwarts on the Rams defense are gone in Chris Long and James Laurinaitis, but the team somewhat quietly also lost half its starting secondary. Safety Rodney McLeod and corner Janoris Jenkins both fled for NFC East foes.

Long’s departure was covered above, and he will be the easiest to replace. The Rams plan on moving Alec Ogletree into the middle linebacker spot vacated by Laurinaitis. It’s an interesting move. Ogletree progressed nicely at weakside backer, but what he excelled at outside is different from what he’ll be asked to do in the middle. He’s a flow backer who darts around blocks effectively, not a downhill attacker who can shed a lead blocker or sift through trash between the tackles. Laurinaitis was limited but that’s what he did well. Ogletree’s cover abilities are a significant upgrade in the middle and before he got hurt last year he showed some blitzing acumen.

This leaves Akeem Ayers and Mark Barron as the starting outside backers. Barron is a great success story after washing out quickly as a first-round safety in Tampa Bay. He’s small but hits big and diagnoses plays quickly. His safety background serves him well against opposing tight ends and in open field situations. The Rams sorely need him to be an agitator and playmaker in the hybrid LB/S role that is en vogue these days.

Ayers is a starter in name but not necessarily in theory as the Rams will play a great deal of two LB sets. He’s one of those guys who has a lot of athletic ability but doesn’t really do many football things well. When watching the Rams it’s common to see Ayers as the second or third guy in on a tackle, rare to see him instigate anything. Still, he’s valuable in his role as the third backer here because the depth chart behind him is Cameron Lynch and Josh Forrest. Lynch is a strong core special teams player but has never shown anything in the base defense, while Forrest is a sixth-round rookie from Kentucky who lacks strength despite being an impressive physical specimen and missed a whole lot of tackles--and tackling opportunities--in college with poor angles and late reactions.

Jenkins gets replaced by Lamarcus Joyner, a spunky 5’8” utility back who played well late in 2015. Joyner is solid in covering shorter routes and closing quickly on the play. He’s a liability in run defense. Expect to see him play inside when the team brings out E.J. Gaines outside. Assuming he’s healthy after missing last year with a Lisfranc injury (foot), Gaines is a solid, instinctive cover man even though he’s smaller than ideal and lacks physicality. He played well as a rookie in 2014. With Trumaine Johnson emerging as a quality CB on the other side, the Rams might be okay with his combo. Choosing the steadier, much bigger Johnson over the flighty, inconsistent Jenkins was a smart move by Les Snead.

Safety is the biggest question. The depth chart has Maurice Alexander and Cody Davis as starters for now, though T.J. McDonald will quickly shoot back to the top once he’s served his unofficial punishment for some off-field knucklehead activity. McDonald is decent with the play in front of him and has nice timing on the blitz, both against the run and pass. It would be nice if he made more impact plays, but he’s the best Los Angeles has got right now. Alexander is smart and plays with confidence but has limited speed and range. He has struggled with consistency. If he takes a step up, Alexander could become a nice player with McDonald. Davis has primarily played special teams in his three years with the Rams.

Depth in the secondary is a major issue, as at linebacker. The trio of safeties at the top could be fine but also could be a liability. There is nothing behind them. The same is true at corner, where the fourth corner is slow, undersized Patriots castoff Troy Hill. Undrafted rookie Mike Jordan could emerge but is likely headed for the practice squad in his first season.

5. How much, if any, lift from the franchise relocation?

Jeff Fisher’s background here is a real asset. As you may recall, he was coach of the Houston Oilers when they became the Tennessee Titans. That was a strangely similar team, featuring a strong defensive front and a powerhouse back in Eddie George, along with a young QB with strong potential in Steve McNair.

The first year in Tennessee looked a lot like the final year in Houston. Both teams finished 8-8. It took two more years before everything gelled into a 13-3 run in a season which culminated in a loss to, ironically enough, the Rams.

Of course this isn’t the first time the Rams have moved. They left Los Angeles after a 4-12 season in 1994 and posted a 7-9 debut season in St. Louis with the very beginnings of the roster that would eventually win a Super Bowl starting to gather. They didn’t win more than 6 games in the next three seasons, however.

Fisher is firmly on the hot seat, having failed to post a winning season in his four years with the organization. His squads have been just good enough to avoid bottoming out, winning 7, 6, 7 and 7 games. Last year’s injury-ravaged and lame-duck home status bought Fisher a bit of a pass, but the Los Angeles native shouldn’t rely on another one, not even with a prized rookie QB who everyone acknowledges needs some time.

The team must adjust from playing on turf to being an outdoor team. They must win over fans who are twice shy after losing two prior NFL teams, including this one. They’re playing in a temporary home which has traditionally been a tough sell to NFL fans. In short, the home enthusiasm will top last year’s half-filled ugliness in St. Louis, but don’t expect much wind behind the sails either.

Forecast

There are two cogs here that are very impressive, the running game and the defensive front four. Pieces at LB and corner, as well as the bookends on the offensive line, are solid enough to win with. Johnny Hekker is a top five punter, while Tavon Austin and Benny Cunningham are above-average return men.

Los Angeles will have to milk those limited assets against one of the league’s most difficult schedules. Many of the 50/50 contests, where it’s tough to say which is the better team, come on the road. Four of the first six are road trips, followed by a home game in London against the Giants. Road dates later on include New Orleans and New England, two teams nicely equipped to counter what the Rams do well.

The defensive front is good enough to win at least four games on its own. Opponents who have lousy offensive lines and/or quarterbacks who don’t handle pressure well are in serious trouble. Enemies who can foil the rush and have adequate run defense are going to overwhelm Jeff Fisher’s predictable team. Fisher, whose contract ends after 2016, has done less with more as one of the most ponderously secure coaches in pro sports. If he can coax a repeat 7-9 with the mess they have in the passing game and the holes behind the defensive line, he probably earns yet another year where he can win 7 or 8 games and the cycle repeats. So when I tell you, Rams fans, that your team is going 5-11 this year it’s actually a positive. It just might break the cycle.

Tags: Los Angeles Rams, IQ

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