Last year: 7-9, third in NFC North

Key Figures

Scoring offense: 22.4 ppg, 18th in NFL

Scoring defense: 25.0 ppg, 23rd

Turnover margin: -6 

2015 was a tale of two seasons for the Lions. The first half of the year was a messy 1-7 that saw far too many defensive lapses and a sputtering offense. Jim Caldwell fired Joe Lombardi and promoted Jim Bob Cooter to Offensive Coordinator and the results were impressive. Detroit won 6 of its final 8 with Matthew Stafford rolling and an invigorated defense playing smarter and more consistently.

The strong finish wasn’t enough to save the front office, however. Now former Patriots personnel exec Bob Quinn takes over at GM, with several new underlings as well. Quinn is charged with overcoming decades of underwhelming results; Detroit has exactly one playoff win in the Super Bowl era. There is a fair share of talent here, even without retired wideout Calvin Johnson. Will it translate into more success?

Five Questions

1. Can the defense win in the middle of the field?

The Lions' defense declined considerably from the stellar 2014 campaign, when playmakers at all three levels and overall strength between the hash marks parlayed Detroit to a playoff berth.

The national media focused on the free agent departure of Ndamukong Suh, but that’s only a small part of the iceberg. Any daily team observer will tell you the Lions missed playmaking LB DeAndre Levy more than Suh.

Injuries to Haloti Ngata and Tyrunn Walker foiled the Suh replacement plan. Ngata struggled early, slowed by a knee. Walker went down to a broken leg via a cheap shot in the controversial loss to Seattle. Both are healthy now, and that should shore up the interior run defense. Ngata flashed some of his vintage pocket-collapsing skills once he got his legs under him late in the year, while Walker is a natural rusher and better all-around player than the man he was ostensibly replacing in Detroit, Nick Fairley. Second-round steal A’Shawn Robinson provides much-needed reinforcement and a physical nastiness that was missing. Expect those three to rotate liberally, with Caraun Reid a solid fourth DT. They might not get a lot of sacks, but the run defense should get back into the top 10 while also increasing the up-the-gut pass pressures.

A stronger front can only help the linebackers and safeties behind them. They’ll need to, because those spots are unquestionably the most vulnerable part of the roster. Getting Levy back from his mysterious hip injury would be a major help. Levy was the best coverage LB in the league in 2013-14, a rangy and instinctive outside backer who also tackled well in the run game. Unfortunately, he’s still not cleared for practice. Even if No. 54 gets back on the field, expect some rust and perhaps some lingering physical limitations.

Tahir Whitehead is solid in run defense as the middle LB, but his range in coverage is limited. The defense perked up when he replaced the carcass of Stephen Tulloch after an inexplicable benching early on. Whitehead does okay covering tight ends but is out of his element when having to flow to screens or flares and wheels out of the backfield. If Levy is back and healthy, this is a moot point, but right now Levy cannot be counted upon.

The other LBs spots are a crapshoot. Josh Bynes tried his best filling in for Levy last year and is okay in the short range, but he’s optimally a fourth LB. Rookie Antoine Williams is a downhill thumper who will play some in run packages, but he just doesn’t have the agility to handle coverage. It’s make-or-break time for Kyle Van Noy, a 2014 second-round pick who has been a major disappointment thus far. He has the athletic tools to be exactly what the Lions need at the SAM spot, but he’s played without confidence or assertiveness. If he doesn’t show a lot in preseason his roster spot is not safe even with the lack of impact talent at the position. If he’s not better than middling Jon Bostic or Khaseem Greene, two castoffs from a bad Chicago defense, Van Noy is done in Detroit.

One safety spot is in great hands with Glover Quin. The savvy, smooth veteran is one of the best coverage safeties in the league, owing to his cornerback roots. Quin has the second-most INTs in the NFL over the last two years and he’s adept at terminating plays as the second man in on the catch. The problem for Detroit is he’s the only legit NFL safety currently on the roster.

James Ihedigbo and Isa Abdul Quddus shared the strong safety role last year, but both are gone. Fourth-round rookie Miles Killebrew is essentially an undersized linebacker who will definitely help in run support, but he struggled with lateral quickness and coverage instincts at FCS-level Southern Utah. Oft-injured Rafael Bush projects as the starter but banking on him is perilous. At his best he was an average safety in New Orleans, and that peak was brief. Tavon Wilson is on the roster for special teams only, though he’s probably been the best strong safety in the early part of camp. None of these options cover nearly as well as Ihedigbo, who was a fan whipping boy for his “one step too late” coverage.

2. Does the running game improve?

No team has devoted more draft resources to bolstering the offensive line than the Lions. They will start three first-round picks and two third-round picks up front, all drafted since 2012. Yet this has been one of the worst run-blocking lines in the NFL, and hasn’t been a lot better in pass protection either.

The great hope is flipping Riley Reiff from the left tackle spot to the right side will bolster the run game. Adding Taylor Decker in the first round to play left tackle moves Reiff, an average left tackle, to the right side and that should suit his skill set. Right tackle has been a sore spot for years other than the brief solid run from LaAdrian Waddle in 2013, and Reiff has impressed his biggest skeptics in camp so far. Decker is more of a pass protector, but he isn’t shy about getting after it in the run game.

The left guard and center positions are what will make or break the run game. Last year’s first round pick, Laken Tomlinson, underwhelmed at left guard despite starting right away. Tomlinson has the size and intelligence, but he played a count too slow and wasn’t always as physical as the job required. Some of the issue was he often had to help bail out center Travis Swanson, who was dreadful early in his first year as a starter. Swanson improved after the offensive staff change (Reiff did too), but his run blocking and decision making both must continue to sharply trend up. The team drafted Graham Glasgow in the third round with hopes of challenging Swanson, but the rookie from Michigan has struggled in camp.

Larry Warford at right guard is one of the best run blockers in the league…when he’s healthy. For much of the last two seasons, Warford has not approached the devastatingly effective impact he brought as a rookie in 2013. When he’s playing well he is fully capable of taking out two would-be tacklers on every run play. The coaching staff is optimistic he’s over his concussion and ankle issues. Having Reiff to his right means he won’t have to worry about overcompensating to his outside, and that only helps.

Of course, the guys actually carrying the football have something to do with a successful running game. The Lions are bullish on second-year back Ameer Abdullah. The 2015 second-round pick from Nebraska showed flashes as a rookie but also struggled with fumbles and going down too often on first contact. He did finish the season playing better, but tore his labrum in the finale. He’s still not cleared for contact in practice (it’s August 7) and that’s a real underreported concern. Abdullah’s biggest asset is his instant acceleration.

It’s a bigger concern as the Lions let power back and nominal starter Joique Bell go. Bell struggled behind the weak line. The Lions didn’t really bring in anyone like Bell to take that role, however. Newcomer Stevan Ridley is more of a receiver than a runner, in part because he has an alarming tendency to come to almost a complete stop before cutting. Late-rounder Dwayne Washington couldn’t get consistent carries in college, though he definitely looks the part of a physical, between-the-tackles grinder. Fan favorite Zach Zenner is back from an injury that ended his promising rookie campaign in the preseason. George Winn runs with power but hasn’t shown the vision or balance and sticks around for his special teams value. The hype is too high on the affable Zenner, a one-speed back who lacks wiggle, but he at least maximizes his runs and also catches well. In this offense, expect a lot of screens and quick-hit swing passes to the running backs to serve as part of the run game.

More dedication to the run is an imperative. The Lions have finished out of the bottom 10 in attempts per game exactly once in the last 8 seasons. They’ve actually been in the middle of the pack in yards per carry more years than they have not (though 25th last year), but the lack of commitment to the run has consistently put the Lions near the bottom of rushing yardage.

3. How does the offense replace Calvin Johnson?

The easy answer here is, they won’t try. At least not in the way many would expect a team to replace one of the best wideouts in NFL history.

Instead of trying to plug someone in and asking him to do what Megatron did, the Lions have smartly tinkered the offense to a different kind of approach. Golden Tate steps up to the No. 1 WR role, and he’s fully capable, albeit in a different way than Johnson was. Tate thrives on precise routes and making tacklers miss. When Johnson missed time with injuries in each of the last two years, Tate thrived. He has the ability to line up all over the formation, and few find the holes in the deep intermediate coverage better than the cocksure veteran.

Tate will be the leading receiver, but expect Matthew Stafford to spray the ball around to a barrage of targets. Contrary to popular opinion, the strong-armed QB actually does this quite well. In 2015 he became the first quarterback in NFL history to complete at least 60% of his passes in every game. Under new Offensive Coordinator Jim Bob Cooter, the Lions became more efficient and focused on isolating the most favorable matchup. It took a couple of weeks but Stafford clicked in nicely. With a full offseason now in the offense, the more mature Stafford is poised for a very big year. If he can eliminate the slow starts and pesky cold patches of 10 plays in 3 drives that gain 15 total yards, it would definitely help.

He gets Marvin Jones on the outside. The sure-handed vet comes over from Cincinnati as the primary deeper outside threat. Jones has decent size at 6’2” and thrived for the Bengals at making contested catches and working the sidelines. While not a blazer, Jones has good speed and changes gears well. He too is a real threat after the catch.

Tight end Eric Ebron will play a big role. In fact, he’s the player most likely to do the things the Lions asked of Johnson down the field. The 2014 first-rounder thrived with the change to Cooter, catching over 75% of his targets following the change. He’s looked fantastic throughout camp, including the sessions I caught personally. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Ebron make a big jump in his third season and get over 100 targets in the Jimmy Graham role of a hybrid TE/WR. He might be the fastest TE in the league.

The wideout depth behind the top two is questionable even after the recent signing of 36-year-old Anquan Boldin. The grizzled vet brings toughness and leadership but hasn’t gotten separation on routes in a couple of years. He’ll see a lot of action in the slot and could function as a de facto second TE with his fierce blocking and driven attitude. T.J. Jones showed some promise late last season with his quickness and YAC ability, though durability is a big question. Newcomers Jeremy Kerley and Andre Roberts are also in the mix, though they are ostensibly fighting for the same return specialist gig much more than they are meaty roles in the offense. Look for Roberts to win that competition.

The Lions are hopeful undrafted rookie Jay Lee can fill the role of outside vertical threat, a role Corey Fuller (who could be cut by the time you read this) just hasn’t been capable of doing. Wide-bodied Quinshad Davis has also shown a spark in camp as an undrafted free agent from North Carolina.

Last year, RB Theo Riddick led all backs in receptions, receiving yards and forced missed tackles. Expect a repeat trifecta. A much better receiver than actual runner, Riddick runs wicked routes with his electrifying quickness and balance. The Lions use him to dictate matchups, which helps Ebron and Tate on all those crosses and intermediate hooks and drags. Riddick might not get more than 50 carries, however.

Abdullah is also a threat out of the backfield. So is Ridley. So is fullback Michael Burton, though he doesn’t play much. This offense will look more like the post-Moss New England style, where hitting quick receivers in stride and Stafford picking the best matchup on each play is the key. Expect Detroit to lead the league in yards after catch, by design and taking advantage of what the talented depth of receivers do best.

Also expect Stafford’s numerous and vociferous critics to slam him for this, even though it appears to suit his skills quite well. Narratives die hard. If he can once again post better numbers than Andrew Luck, as he’s done in three of the last four years, and get this team sans Calvin and with something called Cole Wick as the No. 2 tight end into the playoffs, perhaps he’ll finally start getting some credit. No. 9 will never be more than about the ninth-best QB in the league, but if he’s that good all of 2016--and he was better than that for the second half of last year--these Lions are going to pile up a lot of points.

4. Does the momentum from last year’s strong finish carry over?

The concept of momentum carrying over from one year to the next is a source of great debate. Detroit fans can be forgiven for believing in it. The last two times the Lions made the playoffs, following the 2011 and ’14 seasons, it came on the heels of real surges the preceding years.

The 2010 Lions won their final four games to finish 6-10 and did so by getting more efficient on offense and stiffening on defense. The 2013 Lions didn’t win games down the stretch, but they were the league’s best defense over the final month of that year. That carried into the next season, where (as noted above) Detroit fielded a top 5 defense that carried them to the playoffs.

Last year’s Lions won 6 of 8, and one of the losses was the epic fail on the Green Bay Hail Mary. Aside from the Cooter Effect on the offense, the defense got healthier and much better against the pass. And how they accomplished that does have the ability to carry over, even given the aforementioned safety and LB issues.

A big finish by defensive end Devin Taylor helped balance the pass rush prowess of Ziggy Ansah, who remains one of the best in the league at creating pressure and sacking the quarterback. Ansah is a Pro Bowler with outstanding length and strength, very reminiscent of a young Julius Peppers. Taylor is even bigger at 6’7” and 285 pounds and proved he’s a solid left end. The depth has upgraded with pass rush specialist Wallace Gilberry coming on board and young Canadian Stefan Charles bringing fresher legs to the Jason Jones role of inside nickel rusher and reserve base end. With a healthy Ngata and Walker in the middle, this front four is both huge and very skilled. That can, and has, covered a lot of woes in coverage.

Darius Slay has stepped up his game as a legit No. 1 cornerback. The Lions rewarded him with a lucrative contract extension, and the 2013 second-rounder earned it with his strong cover skills. Pro Football Focus graded him as the NFL’s second-best corner last year. If he can win more contested ball situations, Slay will live in Pro Bowls. Quandre Diggs emerged as a solid slot corner as a sixth-round rookie from Texas. The more he played, the better the pass defense got. Nevin Lawson is an adequate No. 2 outside corner, though receivers with wiggle will continue to give him fits. There is little depth, and that ties into a maelstrom of trouble if Slay gets hurt.

The manner in which the Lions surged to a 6-2 finish is definitely still in place. It’s worth noting the offensive improvement came at the expense of targets and reliance upon Calvin Johnson. With an offensive line that cannot help but be better, and is much deeper with vet swingman Geoff Schwartz in the mix, it’s perfectly plausible to see that strong finish carry over.

Plausible takes on a different tone in Detroit. Lions fans are accustomed to major disappointment. More impressive, more complete teams of Lions past have wound up turning playoff promise into bitter failures. That history is a heavy burden to overcome, even with the momentum factor being legit.

5. Can the Jim Caldwell/Bob Quinn marriage work?

The new GM comes from New England and the Bill Belichick style of management, secrecy and football creativity. The holdover coach is a Tony Dungy disciple, a spiritual man who abhors risk and keeps everything low-key. Quinn opted--controversially--to stick with Caldwell despite not meeting him until the day he took the job in Detroit.

It’s an awkward situation. Quinn is a rookie GM who has already made his mark on the franchise with his emphasis on improved depth and seeking out players who create matchup advantages. Caldwell has an 18-14 record in his two seasons, but prior to that failed to post a winning record in any prior stop, not even in college.

The easy take is that Quinn gave Caldwell another chance in no small part because no better options were available, and because it gives the new GM an easy “fall guy” if things go poorly. Both of those are factually correct, but not necessarily the whole truth. In talking with folks on and around the team, everyone to a man believes Quinn genuinely believes in Caldwell and treasures how much the players respect the stoic, fair coach.

The track record for inherited coaches from divergent backgrounds is not pretty. I can’t help but think of Eric Mangini and Mike Holmgren in Cleveland, where the cultural clash predictably bombed. Will Quinn tolerate Caldwell’s gaffes, like not expecting the Hail Mary against Green Bay or not even raising an eyebrow when the officials obviously blew a call that cost Detroit a win in Seattle last year? Will Caldwell have increased scrutiny on his assistants? His failure to dismiss the obviously inept Lombardi until 90-something-year-old owner Martha Ford pulled the strings still bothers many fans. The defense struggled early on in part because Defensive Coordinator Teryl Austin refused to play Whitehead and heavily leaned on a cockamamie scheme where neither DT covered the A-gap in the first couple of games. Loyalty to lost causes stained Dungy’s coaching career, and Caldwell doesn’t have near the successful résumé to lean on. If the team struggles early on against what looks like a favorable schedule, we’ll learn quickly just how committed Quinn is to making this forced marriage work.

Forecast

Last year, I predicted the Lions would build upon the strong 2014 campaign, a season where the team just missed recording a rare (one in the Super Bowl era) playoff victory. Instead, a brutal schedule and poor coordination on both sides of the ball created a massive 1-7 hole. The team I picked to make the playoffs reappeared thereafter, but 6-2 against a softer schedule was too little too late.

I can see Detroit surprising folks with an improved, more balanced offense based on precision and quickness. If Matthew Stafford is even close to the guy he was the final six weeks, this team will be difficult to outscore. I like the massive, talented defensive front. I like the nifty weapons on offense. I like the special teams, where punter Sam Martin is an underrated star with exceptional control. I also like the schedule. Drawing the AFC South and NFC East, handily the league’s two weakest overall divisions, is a boon. So is a slate with six home dates in nine games in the middle of the season. Detroit matches up--on paper--with the better teams on the schedule (Green Bay, Washington, Houston) nicely, with this team’s strengths directly opposing the other team’s biggest vulnerabilities.

At the same time, it’s hard to believe in a team with so many questions. There are still significant holes and exploitable weaknesses on both sides of the ball. I do not have confidence in Jim Caldwell, and I’ll need to see the sustained improvement with Stafford before I fully believe it. The fate of the 2016 Lions comes down to how well they perform in the 50/50 games (can win or lose) and close contests. Other than a couple of times, this team has failed miserably on both accounts for the better part of 20 years. A pessimist is an optimist with experience. While a 10-6 finish wouldn’t shock me, it’s far more likely these Lions finish as the best last-place team in the league with a 6-10 record. 

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