Stats - Football Wiretap

With the Las Vegas Raiders expected to select quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, historical data offers a compelling case for the decision. Among the highest-drafted quarterbacks from 2000 to 2020, taking the top signal-caller at No. 1 would have been the correct call 50 percent of the time when measured against all other positions.

The research examined which players delivered the most valuable pro careers relative to their draft position across every position group, not just quarterbacks. Despite the inherent difficulty in developing the position, the results support prioritizing quarterback at the top of the board.

A separate finding reinforced the pattern further. Among quarterbacks drafted from 2000 to 2022, the first quarterback selected outperformed all QB classmates 43.4 percent of the time. Success rates fell sharply after that, with the second and third quarterbacks drafted each succeeding just 13 percent of the time, the fourth and fifth quarterbacks drafted at 4.3 percent each.

Not every No. 1 quarterback carried equal certainty at the time of selection. Michael Vick and Andrew Luck stood as franchise-defining prospects. Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Cam Newton, and Joe Burrow represented near-locks with minimal reservations. Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Jameis Winston, and Sam Bradford fell into a coin-flip category, while David Carr, JaMarcus Russell, and Kyler Murray represented hopeful projections.

Mendoza, a 6-foot-5 Heisman winner, projects closer to the near-lock tier. His processing ability, accuracy, and composure draw comparisons to Burrow's profile entering the draft.

Some historical selections would have changed with hindsight. The 2010 Rams might have preferred Ndamukong Suh over Bradford, and the 2018 Browns could have landed Josh Allen instead of Mayfield. But the overall body of evidence supports quarterback as the right call at No. 1 far more often than not.

The 2026 NFL Draft quarterback class offers one clear prospect and significant uncertainty behind him. Indiana's Fernando Mendoza projects as a worthy No. 1 pick, but statistical modeling shows a steep drop-off among the remaining signal-callers available.

According to ESPN's QBASE 2.0 model, which factors in college passing statistics, opponent quality, starting experience, and rushing ability, there is only a 15.2% chance that any of the four quarterbacks behind Mendoza develops into an upper-tier or elite NFL starter.

Mendoza's profile draws the closest comparison to Joe Burrow, a relatively unknown prospect who went on to win the Heisman Trophy and a national championship in his final college season with LSU after transferring from Ohio State. He threw for 3,535 yards and 41 touchdowns in 2025. His mean projection of 0.56 TDYAR/A carries a 19.9% chance of an elite outcome, but a 30.8% bust probability as well. Mendoza is a near certainty to be drafted by the Las Vegas Raiders at No. 1. 

Alabama's Ty Simpson, ranked 37th by Scouts Inc., carries a 73.6% bust probability. His profile as a one-year starter with modest numbers draws comparisons to Mitchell Trubisky, Trey Lance, and Anthony Richardson Sr. Despite quarterback-needy teams like the New York Jets, Arizona Cardinals, Cleveland Browns, and Pittsburgh Steelers potentially reaching for him in Round 1, the model projects him as a statistical risk.

LSU's Garrett Nussmeier and Penn State's Drew Allar each carry bust probabilities exceeding 92%. Nussmeier's minus-2.2 career rushing yards per attempt, reflecting both immobility and sack frequency, is a significant red flag. Allar offers the group's highest ceiling among Day 2 candidates due to his mobility and arm strength, but saw his passing numbers decline in 2025 before a season-ending ankle injury.

Miami's Carson Beck, who transferred from Georgia after a UCL tear, posted a 89.7% bust probability despite leading the Hurricanes to the national championship game.

The Seattle Seahawks' 29-13 victory over the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LX earned them placement as the third-best championship team in NFL history, according to DVOA metrics. The ranking system evaluated all 60 Super Bowl winners using efficiency ratings that account for play-by-play performance, situation, and opponent strength.

Seattle finished the regular season with exceptional defensive and special teams units, ranking 12th and 24th respectively in DVOA history since 1978. The team posted a 17-3 record while facing the league's eighth-toughest schedule, with their three defeats coming by a combined nine points.

The Seahawks dominated their playoff run with convincing victories. Their 41-6 divisional round win against the sixth-seeded 49ers registered as the season's strongest single-game performance by any team. Seattle followed with a 31-27 NFC Championship victory over the fifth-seeded Rams before defeating the Patriots in Super Bowl LX.

"This placement for the 2025 Seahawks team will certainly shock most fans, as there was never the public sentiment that the Seahawks were one of the best teams in NFL history," wrote Aaron Schatz.

Only the 1991 Washington team (53.9% DVOA) and 1985 Chicago Bears (52.3% DVOA) rated higher than Seattle's 46.4% mark. Both historic squads dominated all three phases of the game throughout their championship seasons.

The study utilized proprietary DVOA ratings examining efficiency on individual plays while adjusting for context and competition. For teams before 1978, ratings were estimated using Pro Football Reference's Simple Rating System combined with postseason scoring margins.

Seattle and the division rival Los Angeles Rams both finished among the top 10 teams since 1978, making the NFC West historically dominant. The Seahawks' balanced approach proved decisive, combining elite defense and special teams with above-average offensive production.

All 60 Super Bowl Champions Ranked By DVOA:

1. 1991 Washington (17-2, 53.9% DVOA)
2. 1985 Chicago Bears (18-1, 52.3% DVOA)
3. 2025 Seattle Seahawks (17-3, 46.4% DVOA)
4. 1989 San Francisco 49ers (17-2, 45.1% DVOA)
5. 1996 Green Bay Packers (16-3, 44.9% DVOA)
6. 1992 Dallas Cowboys (16-3, 42.8% DVOA)
7. 1973 Miami Dolphins (15-2, 42.6% DVOA)
8. 2004 New England Patriots (17-2, 41.7% DVOA)
9. 1975 Pittsburgh Steelers (15-2, 41.4% DVOA)
10. 1995 Dallas Cowboys (15-4, 41.4% DVOA)
11. 1998 Denver Broncos (17-2, 40.0% DVOA)
12. 1984 San Francisco 49ers (18-1, 39.5% DVOA)
13. 2013 Seattle Seahawks (16-3, 39.5% DVOA)
14. 1966 Green Bay Packers (14-2, 39.4% DVOA)
15. 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (15-4, 38.3% DVOA)
16. 1999 St. Louis Rams (16-3, 35.9% DVOA)
17. 1979 Pittsburgh Steelers (15-4, 35.1% DVOA)
18. 1994 San Francisco 49ers (16-3, 34.5% DVOA)
19. 2019 Kansas City Chiefs (15-4, 33.8% DVOA)
20. 1997 Denver Broncos (16-4, 33.8% DVOA)
21. 1978 Pittsburgh Steelers (17-2, 30.3% DVOA)
22. 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (15-5, 32.4% DVOA)
23. 1971 Dallas Cowboys (14-3, 32.3% DVOA)
24. 1983 Los Angeles Raiders (15-4, 32.0% DVOA)
25. 1972 Miami Dolphins (17-0, 31.7% DVOA)
26. 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers (15-5, 31.7% DVOA)
27. 1993 Dallas Cowboys (15-4, 31.6% DVOA)
28. 1988 San Francisco 49ers (13-6, 30.7% DVOA)
29. 1986 New York Giants (17-2, 30.7% DVOA)
30. 1977 Dallas Cowboys (15-2, 30.4% DVOA)
31. 1990 New York Giants (16-3, 30.2% DVOA)
32. 2022 Kansas City Chiefs (17-3, 30.1% DVOA)
33. 2009 New Orleans Saints (16-3, 29.5% DVOA)
34. 2000 Baltimore Ravens (16-4, 29.4% DVOA)
35. 2021 Los Angeles Rams (16-5, 28.9% DVOA)
36. 1976 Oakland Raiders (16-1, 28.4% DVOA)
37. 1967 Green Bay Packers (12-4-1, 28.4% DVOA)
38. 2016 New England Patriots (17-2, 27.8% DVOA)
39. 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers (15-4, 27.4% DVOA)
40. 2024 Philadelphia Eagles (18-3, 27.2% DVOA)
41. 2017 Philadelphia Eagles (16-3, 27.1% DVOA)
42. 1969 Kansas City Chiefs (14-3, 26.7% DVOA)
43.2014 New England Patriots (15-4, 24.8% DVOA)
44. 2023 Kansas City Chiefs (15-6, 24.4% DVOA)
45. 1974 Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3-1, 24.3% DVOA)
46. 1982 Washington (12-1, 23.7% DVOA)
47. 2010 Green Bay Packers (14-6, 23.5% DVOA)
48. 2003 New England Patriots (17-2, 22.5% DVOA)
49. 2006 Indianapolis Colts (16-4, 22.1% DVOA)
50. 2015 Denver Broncos (15-4, 20.0% DVOA)
51. 2018 New England Patriots (14-5, 19.6% DVOA)
52. 1980 Oakland Raiders (15-5, 17.1% DVOA)
53. 2012 Baltimore Ravens (14-6, 15.5% DVOA)
54. 1968 New York Jets (13-3, 14.6% DVOA)
55. 1981 San Francisco 49ers (16-3, 14.1% DVOA)
56. 2007 New York Giants (14-6, 13.6% DVOA)
57. 1987 Washington (14-4, 11.9% DVOA)
58. 2001 New England Patriots (14-5, 11.9% DVOA)
59. 2011 New York Giants (13-7, 10.9% DVOA)
60. 1970 Baltimore Colts (14-2-1, 6.8% DVOA)

Seattle Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald could make history in Super Bowl LX by becoming the first defensive play-calling coach to win a championship. The Seahawks enter the game as 5-point favorites against the New England Patriots despite defensive struggles in the NFC Championship Game.

Macdonald's defense ranked first in EPA per play during the regular season but finished at -0.25 EPA per play in Sunday's 31-27 victory over the Los Angeles Rams. That mark represents the worst defensive performance among 52 winning teams in conference championship games since 2000, according to TruMedia.

Rams coach Sean McVay exploited Seattle's defense by adjusting his approach on second down. McVay utilized more 12 personnel groupings instead of 13 personnel and shifted toward more 3 x 1 formations rather than 2 x 2 alignments in those situations.

The strategy proved effective as Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford failed to complete a single pass on six third-down attempts. However, Stafford completed 10 of 13 passes for 165 yards and one touchdown on second down, negating Seattle's third-down defensive advantages.

No defensive-minded head coach who calls plays has won a Super Bowl in league history. Bill Belichick came closest during his Patriots dynasty, but coordinators Romeo Crennel, Matt Patricia and Brian Flores made the actual defensive calls while every play went through the head coach.

Tom Landry, creator of the famous Flex Defense, possessed expertise to call plays on both sides but focused on offense. His iconic fedoras made wearing traditional headsets difficult, contributing to his offensive emphasis.

Other defensive-minded coaches who won championships delegated play-calling duties to coordinators. The list includes recent winners like Bill Belichick's Patriots staff and extends back through decades of NFL history.

Macdonald spent time as defensive coordinator with the Baltimore Ravens before accepting the Seattle position two years ago. The Ravens have since moved on from John Harbaugh, raising questions about whether Baltimore regrets allowing Macdonald to leave when multiple teams pursued him.

The Seahawks' defensive performance against Los Angeles raises concerns heading into the Super Bowl. Seattle allowed the Rams to accumulate significant yardage while struggling to generate consistent pressure and coverage.

New England presents a different challenge with second-year quarterback Drake Maye leading an offense that relies heavily on the running game. The Patriots have emphasized ball control and defensive intensity during their playoff run under first-year coach Mike Vrabel.

Macdonald's defense must rebound from the championship game struggles to secure a historic victory. The unit's regular season dominance suggests capability exists, but execution against elite competition remains inconsistent.

The coaching matchup features two first-year head coaches seeking championship validation. Vrabel calls defensive plays for New England while delegating offensive responsibilities, creating an interesting contrast with Macdonald's approach.

Seattle's defensive struggles in the conference championship could prove anomalous rather than indicative of broader issues. The unit's regular season excellence provides reason for optimism despite one poor performance.

The 2025 NFL Conference Championship Games feature the Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams, Denver Broncos and New England Patriots. There have now been 21 different teams to reach the final four of the NFL over the past 10 years.

Over the past three years, 11 of the 12 spots have been taken by different teams with only the Kansas City Chiefs reaching this stage multiple times.

Seattle Seahawks receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba became the first player in NFL history to lead the league in receiving yards for the team that passes the least, finishing with 119 catches for 1,793 yards and 10 touchdowns. The second-year wideout has formed a remarkable connection with quarterback Sam Darnold as the Seahawks prepare to host San Francisco in Saturday's divisional round.

Smith-Njigba and Darnold began developing their chemistry during minicamps in April after Geno Smith was traded to Las Vegas. Their quick rapport has become the foundation of Seattle's offense under first-year head coach Mike Macdonald.

"It's been a long time since I've been able to turn my head and the ball is right there," Smith-Njigba said. "For us to be on the same page for him to trust that I'm going to be in my spot and he can throw without me even looking at him, that's the elite-level ball."

Backup quarterback Drew Lock credited both players for accelerating their partnership. Darnold's experience with multiple teams and elite receivers has sharpened his ability to connect with talented pass-catchers quickly.

Smith-Njigba's success comes from uncommon body control and deception rather than blazing speed. Teammates describe his ability to stop and start as having "the best brakes in the NFL," with tight end AJ Barner comparing his movements to a hockey player gliding on ice.

"It's all about the power of illusion," Smith-Njigba said. "It's a chess match out there. I'm putting it into the DB's mind that I'm going fast even when I'm not."

The Ohio State product was selected 20th overall in the 2023 draft after posting 347 receiving yards in the Rose Bowl. San Francisco defensive coordinator Robert Saleh acknowledged underestimating Smith-Njigba coming out of college.

Darnold has rebounded from difficult stints with the Jets and Panthers to throw for over 4,000 yards and earn Pro Bowl honors in consecutive seasons with Minnesota and Seattle. The veteran quarterback won 14 games this season while leading the Seahawks to the NFC's top seed.

Seattle will rely on home-field advantage at Lumen Field, where 68,000 fans create one of the league's most challenging environments for opposing offenses.

The Philadelphia Eagles face critical decisions about their offensive staff after a 23-19 wild-card loss to the San Francisco 49ers ended their season. Quarterback Jalen Hurts repeatedly used the term "home base" during his final interview, emphasizing the need for offensive identity and systemic stability.

The Eagles became the highest-spending offense in NFL history in 2025, allocating approximately $247.3 million to offensive players. Despite this investment, they produced the lowest offensive EPA per play in coach Nick Sirianni's five-year tenure under first-time coordinator Kevin Patullo.

Philadelphia could not score a touchdown in the second half against San Francisco, marking the sixth time this season they failed to reach the end zone after halftime. The Eagles scored on two of their first three drives before going four consecutive possessions without a first down.

"It's been a common theme for us this year," running back Saquon Barkley said. "We haven't done a good enough job of playing complete football, putting two halves together."

The offense averaged 21 points across 18 games despite returning 10 of 11 starters from their Super Bowl LIX championship team. Nine of those starters played Sunday, with only Lane Johnson missing due to a foot injury.

Hurts offered no opinion when asked if he wanted Patullo to return as offensive coordinator. The quarterback would be playing for his seventh play-caller in seven seasons if changes occur.

"We've had a different OC for the last number of years," Hurts said. "So, that's a big part of it. That change of voice, it does impact that. And that kind of gives the backside to what I mean by home base."

Hurts finished 20 of 35 for 168 yards, one touchdown and 14 rushing yards. He threw incomplete on fourth-and-11 from the 21-yard line on the game's final drive, targeting Dallas Goedert in traffic instead of A.J. Brown one-on-one along the sideline.

Wide receiver A.J. Brown did not record a catch in the second half and had two drops on the final drive. He was involved in a sideline confrontation with Sirianni in the second quarter when he was slow coming off the field before a punt.

"I was trying to get him off the field because we were about to punt and that was really it," Sirianni said. "I love A.J. I think he knows how I feel about him."

Brown did not speak after the game and did not attend Monday's locker room clean-out availability. He has expressed frustration with the offense throughout the season, warning in November that the team could not keep "slapping a Band-Aid over that and expect to win late in the year."

The Eagles struggled with philosophical consistency all season under Patullo. The team used pre-snap motion on 44 percent of plays per Sharp Football Analysis but rushed decisions with an NFL-high 253 plays with two seconds or less on the play clock per TruMedia.

"We were trying it all," wide receiver Jahan Dotson said. "I feel like we were just kinda just throwing a lot of things out there and just trying stuff, instead of, last year, it felt like we had a staple of what we were gonna do each and every game."

The passing game produced the lowest EPA per dropback in the Sirianni era at 0.14 per TruMedia. The Eagles faced increased zone coverage designed to limit one-on-one mismatches that fueled their Super Bowl success.

Sirianni fired former offensive coordinator Brian Johnson after the 2023 season despite a more efficient system than Patullo's. The Eagles have now struggled under two consecutive first-time NFL play-callers, suggesting the organization should pursue experienced coordinators.

Sirianni has a .694 win percentage, the franchise's best mark. His most successful seasons came when delegating play-calling duties to experienced coordinators.

Left tackle Jordan Mailata defended Patullo, saying blame was unfair. "You look at it from a player's standpoint, execution plays a massive role," Mailata said. "And there were just so many plays in games where we just weren't executing."

The Eagles' historic offensive spending included nearly $95 million allocated to the offensive line. Ten of the team's top 12 salaries belonged to offensive players in their top-heavy financial model.

Hurts expressed openness to being involved in offseason decisions but focused on self-improvement. He condemned the team's postseason cycle of alternating between wild-card exits and championship runs.

"I don't like the trend of wild-card, big-time, wild-card, big-time, then wild-card," Hurts said.

The San Francisco 49ers have either made the NFC Championship Game or missed the playoffs entirely in each of the past 22 seasons, showcasing how they have been the NFL's biggest boom or bust franchise across both the Jim Harbaugh and Kyle Shanahan eras.

• Missed Playoffs (15 Seasons): 2003-2010, 2014-2018, 2020, 2024.
• Made NFC Championship (7 Seasons): 2011, 2012, 2013, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023. 

The 49ers made the NFC Championship Game in Harbaugh's first three seasons before missing the playoffs entirely in his fourth and final season as they opened Levi's Stadium in 2014.

After cycling through Jim Tomsula and Chip Kelly, the 49ers hired Kyle Shanahan ahead of the 2017 season and they reached the playoffs and both the Super Bowl in his third season with the franchise. After suffering a number of key injuries in a disappointing 2020 season, the 49ers reached the NFC Championship in their next three seasons.

The 49ers enter the playoffs as a longshot to reach the NFC Championship Game as they will have to win successive road games as the No. 6 seed. The 49ers open the playoffs at the Philadelphia Eagles and could be without both Trent Williams and Ricky Pearsall for the game in addition to their season-ending injuries to Nick Bosa and Fred Warner.

The Seattle Seahawks finished the 2025 regular season ranked first in both overall DVOA and defensive DVOA, joining elite company as only the sixth team in NFL history to accomplish the feat. Four of the previous five teams to rank first in both categories won the Super Bowl.

Seattle secured the NFC's No. 1 seed with a 14-3 record in quarterback Sam Darnold's first season with the franchise. The Seahawks ranked first in overall DVOA, 10th in offensive DVOA, first in defensive DVOA and second in special teams DVOA.

The dominant defense led the league in both passing defense and rushing defense metrics. Seattle's offense ranked fifth in passing and 14th in rushing during the regular season.

The Seahawks join the 2013 Seattle team, 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1996 Green Bay Packers and 1985 Chicago Bears as teams ranked first in both overall and defensive DVOA. The 2023 Baltimore Ravens also achieved the distinction but lost in the AFC Conference Championship Game to the Kansas City Chiefs.

Seattle's 2013 team won Super Bowl XLVIII after posting the same statistical achievement, getting past the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game before blowing out the Denver Broncos. The Buccaneers, Packers and Bears all won championships in their respective seasons.

Head coach Mike Macdonald is in his second season after joining Seattle following his successful tenure as defensive coordinator of the Baltimore Ravens. The Seahawks' transformation on defense has been immediate under Macdonald's leadership.

Six Seattle players earned Pro Bowl selections: Darnold, wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, edge rushers Demarcus Lawrence and Leonard Williams, cornerback Devon Witherspoon and return specialist Rashid Shaheed.

The Seahawks open playoff action as the NFC's top seed with home-field advantage throughout the postseason. Seattle is 10-0 at home in the playoffs since 2005, excluding the COVID-restricted 2020 season.

Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett broke the NFL's single-season sack record Sunday, recording his 23rd sack in a 20-18 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals to surpass the previous mark of 22.5 shared by Michael Strahan and T.J. Watt.

Garrett sacked Joe Burrow with 5:17 remaining in the fourth quarter, using a 0.23-second get-off and swim move to beat left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. The record-breaking play came after Garrett lined up at defensive tackle and blitzed as an off-ball linebacker.

The 30-year-old became the 12th player to record 20 sacks in a season and the first player in NFL history to record at least 12 sacks in six consecutive seasons. Garrett also leads the league with 33 tackles for loss.

Garrett's 22 sacks entering Week 18 were tied for third-most in a season since 1982, when sacks became an official statistic. He recorded at least half a sack in nine straight games before his streak ended in Week 17 against Pittsburgh.

The stretch included a five-sack performance against New England in Week 9 and a four-sack showing against Baltimore in Week 11. Both games set career and franchise records.

"That's history," Browns coach Kevin Stefanski said. "He's the sack king. That's unbelievable. They've been playing this game for a long time, and for him to go get that in the circumstances, with the degree of difficulty in which he got it this season, is unbelievable."

Garrett has 125.5 career sacks, the second-most by a player in his first nine seasons since 1982. He surpassed Reggie White (108) for the most sacks by a player under age 30.

"Find your dreams come true," Garrett said. "Been waiting on this my whole life, my whole football career. I knew I had it in me. I wanted that 25 [sacks]. They made it real difficult these last two games, especially, but really these last three. That'll be the next journey, trying to go out there and get 25."

The 2023 Defensive Player of the Year and overwhelming favorite to win the award again signed a four-year, $160 million extension before the season. Garrett has 10.5 more sacks than any player since entering the league in 2017.