IQ - Football Wiretap

Bills Have Fewest Draft Picks On Roster In NFL, Bengals Have Most

Sep 16, 2019 11:22 AM

The Buffalo Bills have the first draft picks they selected still on their roster with 18, followed by the New York Jets with 19. The Cleveland Browns and Kansas Chiefs are tied for third with 21 apiece. 

The Cincinnati Bengals have the most draft picks they selected on their roster with 37, followed by the Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks with 36.

Jason Fitzgerald/OverTheCap

Tags: Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Draft, IQ, Stats

Steve Keim Calls Kyler Murray 'Generational Talent'

Aug 14, 2019 11:03 AM

The Arizona Cardinals made the bold decision to draft Kyler Murray with the first overall pick one year after taking Josh Rosen at No. 10.

“Taking this guy no. 1, I took a lot of grief for that,” Steve Keim said. “You have to make the tough decisions and avoid the outside noise— ‘Why’d you give up on this guy? Why would you trade this guy?’ … It’s unprecedented. I took [Rosen] in the top 10. I just felt that [Murray] was a generational talent that I just couldn’t pass up.”

Murray was already familiar with the ethos and mechanics of Kliff Kingsbury's system.

“To be able to process so many things at once and look at the defense and execute the play, it’s a lot,” Kingsbury said. “All he’s done his entire life is no-huddle spread stuff. So he feels really confident in that.”

Robert Mays/The Ringer

Tags: Arizona Cardinals, IQ

Sean McVay: Watching So Much Film Watered Down Thought Process For SB

May 8, 2019 11:42 AM

Sean McVay believes he may have over-prepared for Super LIII in which the Los Angeles Rams lost to the New England Patriots 13-3. The extra week gave McVay the opportunity to watch more film than usual.

“In the back of my mind, [when making the Super Bowl game plan back in L.A.], I operated knowing I had another week. That urgency to completely finalize the gameplan wasn’t quite there, and that led to me watching so much film that you can almost water down your thought process.”

McVay admits “you have so much time that you can over-prepare and get away from some of the things that helped you get there. I watched every game from New England’s season. You see stuff that worked in, say, Week 3, but you forget about the amount of stuff that’s taken place since Week 3. You can watch so much film that you lose perspective. You have 18 games of film you can pore over. And then I even watched the Philly and Atlanta Super Bowls closely.”

McVay also gives the Patriots credit.

“But you have to give the Patriots credit, they were their best when their best was demanded. And personally, I wasn’t good enough. I have to do a better job.”

Andy Benoit/Sports Illustrated

Tags: Los Angeles Rams, New England Patriots, IQ

Video: How Contracts For NFL Quarterbacks Have Increased

Apr 16, 2019 8:34 AM

The contracts for NFL quarterbacks have increased significantly since Aaron Rodgers signed his five-year, $110 million deal with the Packers in 2013. 

Now, new deals for Rodgers and Russell Wilson have raised the bar again for quarterbacks.

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Tags: IQ, Video

Belichick Praises Quinnen Williams For Ruining OU's Scheme In CFP

Mar 25, 2019 12:17 PM

While watching game film of Alabama's Quinnen Williams against Oklahoma, Bill Belichick praised his effectiveness for continually splitting two blockers to create pocket pressure on Kyler Murray.

“(Williams) is basically ruining [Oklahoma’s] scheme right now," said Belichick.

Williams is expected to be a top-5 pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.

Jim McBride/Boston Globe

Tags: Draft, Draft Misc, IQ

Nobel Prize Winner Explains Raiders' Logic Of Khalil Mack Trade

Mar 25, 2019 10:12 AM

The Oakland Raiders received the Best Transaction award by MIT for the Khalil Mack, which was explained by Richard Thaler.

Thaler won the 2017 Nobel Prize for Economics and has consulted with an NFL team about the value of draft choices and how to build a team.

Oakland received two first round picks, a third round pick and a fifth round pick for Mack and a second round pick.

“Here’s the argument,” Thaler said. “The Raiders are down, and they will be getting these [four] picks to help them rebuild their team. I believe the only way to win in football is to have players who play better than their salaries. Let’s stipulate that Mack is getting top-of-market value for his services, so it will be hard for him to play better than his salary. Let’s also stipulate Mack is worth the money. But is Mack worth all that money plus four good draft choices?

“Now Jon Gruden can build through these multiple high picks on rookie contracts instead of just having one great player being paid at a market rate. In fact, if Gruden were talking to me, I’d tell him to trade the number four pick for multiple picks. I’d trade down every year. If I had a pick in the top 10, and I wasn’t drafting a quarterback, I’d want to trade down every year. There is value in multiple high picks versus one pick in the top 10.”

Thaler believes the draft-trade value chart devised by Jimmy Johnson overvalues high picks.

“Teams still use that stupid chart,” he said. “That chart overvalues high picks. It’s a joke. High picks, to me, are over-valued stocks. Smart teams should have a portfolio manager, to basically analyze every draft decision or trade.” 

Thaler also believes NFL teams need to expand their analytics departments.

“Football,” Thaler said, “is way behind baseball and basketball. [Houston Rockets GM] Daryl Morey has a staff of I think 15 full-time analytics guys. Why wouldn’t you want to give yourself every edge when you’re building a team?”

Peter King/NBC Sports

Tags: Chicago Bears, Oakland Raiders, IQ

Raiders Given Best Transaction Award By MIT For Khalil Mack Deal

Mar 18, 2019 5:17 PM

The Sloan Sports Analytics Conference at MIT honored the Oakland Raiders with the Best Transaction award, calling it the best move any franchise made in 2018 in any sport.

The move received some criticism for the Raiders within the NFL giving up a player of Mack's caliber.

But the Raiders received two first round picks, a third round pick and a sixth round pick for Mack and a second round pick.

Michael David Smith/Pro Football Talk

Tags: Oakland Raiders, IQ

Chiefs, Rams, Saints, Patriots In Top-5 Offensive DVOA

Jan 14, 2019 10:16 AM

The NFL's Final Four for the 2018 season features four of the top-5 offenses in the league, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA.

The Kansas City Chiefs rank first, followed by the Los Angeles Rams at No. 2, the New Orleans Saints at No. 4 and the New England Patriots at No. 5.

The Patriots defeated the fourth ranked Los Angeles Chargers to reach the AFC Championship.

The combined over/under for both Championship Games is the highest in NFL history.

RealGM Staff Report

Tags: Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, IQ, Stats

Nick Bosa Headlines Latest ESPN 2019 Mock Draft, Two QBs In Top-10

Dec 12, 2018 10:02 AM

Todd McShay has released his latest mock draft with Nick Bosa going to the Arizona Cardinals with the No. 1 overall selection, followed by Rashan Gary of Michigan going to the San Francisco 49ers.

1. Arizona: Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State
2. San Francisco: Rashan Gary, DE, Michigan
3. Oakland: Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama
4. NY Jets: Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson
5. Atlanta: Dexter Lawrence, DT, Clemson
6. Buffalo: Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama
7. Jacksonville: Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon
8. Tampa Bay: Greedy Williams, CB, LSU
9. Detroit: Josh Allen, DE/OLB, Kentucky
10. NY Giants: Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State
11. Cincinnati: Devin White, LB, LSU
12. Cleveland: Ed Oliver, DT, Houston
13. Washington: Cody Ford, OT Oklahoma
14. Carolina: Greg Little, OT, Ole Miss
15. Green Bay: Montez Sweat, DE, Mississippi State
16. Philadelphia: Deandre Baker, CB, Georgia
17. Miami: Deandre Baker, CB, Georgia
18. Denver: Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma
19. Indianapolis: Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson
20. Tennessee: Jachai Polite, OLB, Florida
21. Baltimore: Devin Bush, ILB, Michigan
22. Minnesota: Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn
23. Pittsburgh: Jaylon Ferguson, DE, Louisiana Tech
24. Seattle: Jeffery Simmons, DT, Mississippi State
25. Oakland (from Dallas): Deionte Thompson, S, Alabama
26. Oakland (from Chicago): Noah Fant, TE, Iowa
27. Houston: Michael Deiter, C/G, Wisconsin
28. LA Chargers: Jerry Tillery, DT, Notre Dame
29. New England: Dre'Mont Jones, DT, Ohio State
30. LA Rams: Johnathan Abram, S, Mississippi State

Todd McShay/ESPN

Tags: Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, New York Jets, Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans, Washington Redskins, Draft, Draft Misc, IQ, NCAA

Chiefs Have Three Of ESPN's Top-5 Players Under 25

Nov 30, 2018 8:51 AM

The Kansas City Chiefs have three of ESPN's top-5 players under 25 in Patrick Mahomes (1), Tyreek Hill (2) and Kareem Hunt (5).

Mahomes won't turn 25 until the start of the 2020 season.

Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott rank third and fourth on the list.

Mike Sando/ESPN

Tags: Kansas City Chiefs, IQ

Access To Game Tape At All Levels Credited For Offensive Boon
Plays and schemes can immediately rise up from the high school or college to the NFL due to technology and a new group of coaches who are ready to run them.

Kevin Clark/The Ringer

Chiefs Talk Up New Offensive Coordinator Eric Bieniemy
The Chiefs find the new offense far easier.

Mike Florio/Pro Football Talk

Ten-Year DVOA Rankings: Washington Redskins
Washington was pretty good but not great during the Kirk Cousins era and enter 2018 optimistic about Alex Smith.

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Ten-Year DVOA Rankings: Tennessee Titans
The Titans have largely been stuck in the bottom half of the NFL since their 13-3 season in 2008, but they reached the playoffs in 2017 despite a negative point differential.

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Ten-Year DVOA Rankings: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers haven't reached the playoffs since 2007 and they've had a few false starts in turning it around.

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Ten-Year DVOA Rankings: Seattle Seahawks
Finishing first in DVOA over the first four seasons of Russell Wilson's career was an extraordinary run for the Seahawks.

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Ten-Year DVOA Rankings: San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers hope Kyle Shanahan can similarly turnaround the 49ers as Jim Harbaugh did in 2011.

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Ten-Year DVOA Rankings: Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have been consistent contenders throughout this century (and last).

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Ten-Year DVOA Rankings: Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have been one of the NFL's most consistent winners this century.

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Ten-Year DVOA Rankings: New York Jets
After the initial success of the Rex Ryan era, the Jets have struggled since 2012 and even missed out on the playoffs in 2015 when they won 10 games and ranked 9th in DVOA.

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Ten-Year DVOA Rankings: Oakland Raiders
The Raiders struggled for many, many years following their Super Bowl loss in the 2002 season, but they became competitive again in 2015.

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Ten-Year DVOA Rankings: New York Giants
The Giants have struggled in four out of the past five years in DVOA and they again put their faith in Eli Manning in drafting Saquon Barkley over all of the quarterbacks available to them.

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Ten-Year DVOA Rankings: New Orleans Saints
It looked like the best days of the Drew Brees' era were in the past, but a great draft boomeranged the Saints up to first in DVOA in 2017.

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Ten-Year DVOA Rankings: New England Patriots
The level of consistent excellent during the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era has been extraordinary.

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Ten-Year DVOA Rankings: Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings were ranked 7th in DVOA in the Brett Favre season in which they nearly reached the Super Bowl and then dropped down and surged back up based on Adrian Peterson's availability.

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Ten-Year DVOA Rankings: Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins have been an overarching downward trajectory throughout the snapshot with playoff appearances coming in 2008 and 2016.

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Ten-Year DVOA Rankings: Los Angeles Rams
Jeff Fisher's 7-9 fingerprints are all over the Rams' DVOA rankings while they surged to 2nd in Sean McVay's first season as head coach.

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Ten-Year DVOA Rankings: Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have held on during the second half of Philip Rivers' career with a few dips and surges, but they have only reached the playoffs once since 2009.

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Ten-Year DVOA Rankings: Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are a clear before and after team in this snapshot as they became clear contenders in 2013 with the arrival of Andy Reid and Alex Smith.

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Ten-Year DVOA Rankings: Jacksonville Jaguars
The 10-year snapshot of the Jaguars closely resembles the Browns, except for the massive jump Jacksonville took in 2017.

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