2011 Record:
Point Differential:    -79    
Turnover Margin:   -14      
Sack Differential: 0 

Offense:
2011 Ranks
Rushing: 25^th          
Passing: 14^th           
3^rd Down: 14^th         
Scoring: 26^th 

QB: The perennially sorry state of affairs that has been the quarterback situation for the Redskinsforced one of the most dramatic moves in NFL Draft history. In trading three first round picks to move up to #2 overall and select Robert Griffin III, the Skins boldly hitched their wagon to one of the most dynamic collegiate quarterbacks in recent times.

The gamble is that the improvement in RG3’s game from his junior year, where he was merely pretty good, to his awesome, Heisman-winning senior season was not a fluke. RG3 dramatically improved his ball placement and decision making, a combination of tightening his mechanics and knowing the offensive system like the back of his hand. He is an excellent athlete, a former Olympic-caliber hurdler with no apparent body fat. For a time as a senior he had more touchdown passes than incompletions. RG3 throws a very good deep ball with ample arm strength and nice touch. He can throw on the run and create outside the pocket. His skill set is not dissimilar to a young John Elway, someone Coach Mike Shanahan knows very well. I have very little doubt Griffin will represent a major upgrade from the regrettable John Beck/Rex Grossman experiment.

Amazingly, Rex Grossman remains employed with Washington after proving once again he just cannot stop turning the ball over and throwing games away. Don’t expect him for long, as the team somewhat ponderously drafted Kirk Cousins in the 4^th round. Cousins has all the makings of a solid career backup that can handle spot duty here and there. He’s an intelligent born leader who will accept his role and treat every practice like it’s the Super Bowl, but he lacks a big arm and great accuracy with the football…which sounds eerily similar to John Beck. Fret not, Skins fans, Cousins is better than Beck.

RB: The theme here is young potential, with two second year backs that showed legit promise as rookies a year ago. Roy Helu and Evan Royster both emerged from the crowd in 2011, with Helu netting nearly 1000 combined rushing and receiving yards and showing excellent speed. Royster took over after Helu got hurt and ran for 100 yards in both of the final two games, averaging almost six yards per carry in the process. 

The sophomores will have to earn their carries ahead of Tim Hightower, who played pretty well before getting hurt early last year. Hightower tends to run east-west too long and isn’t going to run away from most defenders in the open field, but he runs tough and has a great habit of always falling forward. He is also very accomplished in the passing game, both as a receiver and a pass protector. Hightower will start atop the depth chart, and it will be an interesting camp battle to see how the situation plays out. If all three stay healthy, I like Helu to get the most carries, with Royster as a tougher interior runner and Hightower as a big 3^rd down back that gets a series or two as the feature guy. It makes for a muddled situation for fantasy owners but bet serves the Redskins. Helu could be primed for a real strong season, particularly if the line in front of him blocks better.

WR/TE: GM Bruce Allen made it a free agency priority to go and get RG3 some help. That’s a good thing, because help was sorely needed here. Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan both signed for a lot more money than they would have received elsewhere, and both will be counted on to handle roles at least one spot higher on the depth chart than either has even handled before. It will be interesting to see how they handle the jump in responsibility and expectations.

Garcon comes from Indianapolis, where he was the only Colts player that actually got better without Peyton Manning. He produced career highs in receptions and yards and also showed good ability to create after the catch. Garcon is at his best running deep, though his ability to actually catch those deep balls is maddeningly inconsistent. The hope is that he will remind RG3 of Kendall Wright and produce that same sort of electric playmaking ability. Garcon scares me with his unreliability, but he will have at least a couple of games where he puts up monster production.

Morgan took the cash and ran from San Francisco, where he never caught more than 52 passes in a season. He had just 15 last year before breaking his leg. Morgan has good strength and presents himself well as a target, but he lack suddenness and long speed. In short, he’s a fairly reliable possession receiver that the Redskins are paying as if he’s Santonio Holmes. I like what Morgan brings (if he’s fully healthy) but I strongly fear that Shanahan & Co. are going to ask too much of him.

Santana Moss remains as the venerable slot receiver, a solid all-around player but not the game-breaker that many teams feature inside. Moss runs strong routes and still makes guys miss after the catch, but his speed has faded a bit and he will drop his fair share of on-target throws. He could be threatened by second-year man Leonard Hankerson, a fellow Miami product that has better size. Hankerson only saw action in four games last year before tearing his hip labrum. He was inconsistent in college but never had the kind of passer in Griffin throwing him the ball. Anthony Armstrong burst onto the scene in 2010 as an unexpected deep threat, averaging almost 20 yards per catch on 44 receptions. But last year he caught just seven passes and garnered almost half his 107 yards on one catch, a game-winning bomb against the Seahawks. He might remind Griffin of Kendall Wright and have another surprise strong campaign, but the odds on that are pretty long.

In Fred Davis, the Skins have themselves a very talented but troublesome tight end. Davis has good size, great vertical speed, and understands how to play in space. He is a legit matchup problem for defenses in the slot and down the seam. Alas, he’s a Grade A knucklehead. Davis missed the final four games last year after testing positive for marijuana, which came as a surprise to exactly nobody who has spent any time around Davis. Major talent, but extracting 16 games of positive production from that talent is a challenge for Shanahan & Co. With oft-injured veteran Chris Cooley playing more fullback and H-Back, the second tight end looks to be Logan Paulsen or supersized WR Niles Paul. Paulsen never saw action before both Cooley and Davis were out, and he had limited success in his run last year. I can’t help but think he’s somehow related to Meatloaf, who played a certain Mr. Paulsen in the classic “Fight Club”. Paul, the 2011 5^th round pick caught just two passes last year, both against a lousy Carolina secondary that couldn’t cover stationary objects. Anything Cooley contributes should be seen as gravy, as his knees are shot and his speed is all but gone.

OL: This group improved quite a bit last season after one of the worst performances in history. Continuity and good health, not to mention a QB that doesn’t run backwards and turtle when under pressure, should produce even better results. Trent Williams took a big step forward at left tackle, and the first-round pick from 2010 showed up to camp in great shape and ready to redeem himself after his 4-game suspension late in the season for (another) positive drug test. Williams has always been a solid run blocker, but he played with more aggression and better pad level last year. He also improved his kick step outside and worked on his mirror skills. Williams cut his sacks allowed from 11.5 to 3, and on one of those John Beck just fell down and Williams’ man happened to be the first to touch him. At left guard Kory Lichtensteiger was also showing much improvement before tearing his ACL after five games. Big Kory is a mauling run blocker with very good leg drive. His balance off the snap was the root of his improvement, and it appears the chemistry he and Williams were building will carry over. He lacks great agility and needs to keep defenders from getting into his pads better, however.

A big part of the overall line improvement came courtesy of finally putting overwhelmed C Casey Rabach out of Skins fans’ misery and replacing him with Will Montgomery. After starting at left guard, Montgomery slid into the middle and more than held his own in pass protection. He is quick on combo blocks and doesn’t get called for holds often, two things that Rabach struggled with. On the right side, the projection is for Chris Chester to start at guard and Jammal Brown at tackle, but that is a fluid situation thanks to injuries and the recent draft. Brown was once a brick wall at tackle but chronic hip woes have reduced him to average on his good days, and the nature of the injury is such that you never know what you’re going to get from him. When he played well, the team ran extremely well around right end, but he gave up 9 sacks in 12 games and often looked trapped in stone. Chester is solid in pass protection but lacks sand in the pants to anchor or blow defenders off the line. They drafted his antithesis in Josh LeRibeus, who is exactly the scary guy at the gym with the bulging muscles, throbbing veins, and tense disposition that makes you swallow wanting to laugh at him for toting around a water jug and not having a neck. The third round pick will start as the backup but look for him to see action if the run game is sputtering. Fellow rookie Josh Gettis will also stick as a reserve, likely taking Maurice Hurt’s job. That sentence should make Redskins fans happy. 

Depth outside comes in the form of tall journeyman Tyler Polumbus. Once cut from the OL-desperate Lions, Polumbus has worked hard at keeping his pads down and head up and is now a viable swing tackle. Bucs castoff James Lee, onetime Chiefs starter Jordan Black, and 6^th round rookie Tom Compton are fighting for the other spot. Look for Black to prevail and Compton to make the jump from South Dakota to the practice squad. As long as Williams stays healthy and clean, the line will be fine, especially if one of the young guards catches on quickly. There will be no repeats of the disastrous Bills game last year, where the team allowed 10 sacks and 7 runs for loss.

Defense:

2011 Ranks
Rushing: 18^th           
Passing: 12^th           
3^rd Down: 17^th         
Scoring: 21^st 

DL: This is one of the few positions where Washington has some legit depth, even if they lack a real top shelf performer. Adam Carriker and Stephen Bowen are the ends, and they do an adequate job of occupying blockers and letting the guys behind them make the plays. Interestingly, they both had high sack-to-QB pressure ratios; Bowen got 6 sacks but just 7.5 hurries while Carriker bagged 5.5 sacks to 6 hurries. The sack numbers are high, the pressure rates are low and something’s gotta give there. Look for more pressures but fewer sacks in 2012. Both are solid against the run but not dynamic players that will rack up tackles for loss, and Carriker still allows his shoulders to get turned by blockers too often.

Nose tackle Barry Cofield had a solid first season in Washington after defecting from the rival Giants. Cofield has long arms and that allows him to get in the way of a freakish amount of passes for a nose tackle, as he registered 9 PDs. That’s more than the entire group of safeties broke up last year! He chipped in 3 sacks and generally clogged the “A” gap well. Backup nose man Chris Neild started strong but badly faded as his rookie year progressed. His strength is anchoring against the run and he will primarily see action in short yardage packages.

Jarvis Jenkins will see a lot of action at end after missing his rookie season with a knee injury. The coaches were very high on Jenkins, their 2^nd round pick in 2011, and he was projected to start ahead of Carriker before the preseason torn ACL. He should be the best of the group at getting up the field and making plays in the backfield, as he proved quite slippery in gaps and quick off the snap during his Clemson days. Veteran Kedric Gholston is a decent rotational sub at end, though he is coming off a knee injury of his own from last November. If he can’t fully recover, there is a drop in talent from him to fellow veteran Darrion Scott or practice squad stalwart Doug Worthington, both former Ohio State Buckeyes.

LB: Washington is set at outside backer for the next few years with Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan. Orakpo has had excellent consistency the last two years, getting 8.5 and 9 sacks with 56 and 59 tackles in ’10 and ’11 respectively. The sack numbers are actually lower than I expect from Orakpo, who has a freakish physique and excellent first step. He needs to develop more moves than just “out’athleting” the blocker, an issue he readily acknowledges and promises to improve. My Redskins faithful whine (correctly) that he’s held on every play, and he leads the NFC in drawn penalties over the last two years. He’s solid against the run and improved a little in coverage, though the Skins seldom ask him to drop. On the other side, Kerrigan had a fine rookie season as a pass rusher, bagging 7.5 sacks and also snuffing out two screen plays for big losses. As a draft evaluator I proclaimed he needed to be a complementary rusher, not a feature guy, and Washington wound up being a perfect destination. Kerrigan is fairly straight-linish and still played the run like a defensive end and not a linebacker, a tough adjustment for a collegiate end changing defenses. The two of them should combine for 20+ sacks this season as the depth in front is better and both have had another year to hone their crafts. 

London Fletcher continues to defy all odds at one inside spot. Despite being one of the shortest linebackers in the league and now at an age (37) where most guys who play his position are retired for years and need help climbing stairs, Fletcher just keeps on keeping on. Fletcher has not missed a game since 2000, where he missed the sole game he’s sat out of his 14-year career. No player has more tackles over the last two season, five seasons, or ten seasons than London Fletcher. He’s not as apt to stonewall a ball carrier in the backfield as he used to be, and his range in coverage has fallen off ever so slightly, but Fletcher is still widely respected by opponents and venerated in the Skins locker room. Many people have been predicting a slide for years now, and at some point it will happen. When it does the Skins defense is going to suffer for it, but I doubt it happens this year. When he retires he will make an exceptional position coach.

Perry Riley came on strong at the other inside spot, taking advantage of the blocking attention his mates receive and racking up a lot of tackles near the line of scrimmage. Calling Riley undersized seems frivolous compared to Fletcher, but Riley remains small for most inside backers in 3-4 fronts. He makes up for it with leverage and hustle. He will run past some tackles though. Depth comes with rookie Keenan Robinson from Texas. Robinson is extremely athletic and often looked real nice in coverage, but his inconsistent effort and attitude hurt his draft stock. Look for him to see action in passing situations and on special teams, where he could be a monster. With Rocky McIntosh gone, they need Robinson or Lorenzo Alexander to step up and fill that void. Giants castoff Bryan Kehl is in the mix as well. Outside depth is almost nonexistent; seldom-used Rob Jackson and Chris Wilson and never-used Markus White are the next men up. That means Orakpo and Kerrigan will likely never leave the field and leaves the pass rush incredibly vulnerable to injury. Wilson has some potential but has yet to show much in limited duty.

Secondary: In meteorological terms, the cornerback situation is partly cloudy but warm, while the safety skies are mostly cloudy with potential for torment.

The top three corners are set with DeAngelo Hall, Josh Wilson, and Cedric Griffin. Hall is more riverboat gambler than cover man, a tricky angle player that loves to bait QBs and make plays on the ball. His cover skills are merely decent, and that’s when he actually is patient enough to use them. The Skins are used to his style and he often provides the big plays they covet, though last year he slipped to just 3 INTs and neither forced nor recovered a fumble. Opposing teams (especially Dallas) figured out they can attack Hall deep if the QB gets time, and attack they did. At least Hall was active in making tackles after the catch; his 90 tackles finished second on the team and nearly all of those tackles came on passing plays. Expect a rebound season with at least 5 INTs from Hall, who is blessed with a short memory and unflappable bravado.

Wilson quietly had a very nice season on the other side. On his third team in three seasons, Wilson found a home in Washington with his physical style and good short-area cover skills. In the past he had struggled with giving too much cushion and not having the reaction speed to compensate when the cushion was too fluffy, but he fared better when starting shallower and appeared more fluid and confident in his recover ability. It’s a major contrast from Hall on the other side. Griffin comes over from Minnesota and brings heft to the position; he’s the only corner that plays above 190 pounds and it shows in his hitting. It also shows in his ability, or lack thereof, to turn and run with receivers. Young journeyman Morgan Trent and holdover Kevin Barnes will fight for the dime spot. Give the edge to Barnes, who knows the system and has nice length even though he struggled quite a bit last year. Trent played on three teams last year for a reason. The coaching staff is hopeful that 2011 7^th rounder Brandyn Thompson can step up and fill in as a slot corner, as he is the quickest DB on the roster. He spent most of last year on the practice squad.

The safety position scares the hell out of me, to be frank. Bucs discard Tanard Jackson, who has nearly as many police blotter incidents as games played over the last two years, will take over the Laron Landry role. Jackson is coming off a shoulder injury and is one of the least reliable tacklers of any safety in the league. He does cover fairly well and he is familiar with what new DB Coach Raheem Morris expects, as that was his head coach during his star-crossed stay in Tampa Bay. But depending on him to be the last line of defense when his career has been ravaged by injuries and suspensions for serious drug crimes is a real dicey proposition.

Yet, for as much of a long-odds gamble that Jackson is, fellow free agent and presumed starter Brandon Meriweather is betting your paycheck on a pregnant mare and a fat jockey. He was cut twice last year by teams that were downright desperate for warm bodies at safety in New England and Chicago. The coaching staffs and fellow defenders on both teams, while typically tight-lipped, were not sorry at all to see him go. There are times when Meriweather looks something close to the Pro Bowl safety he was in 2009 (proof positive that the designation of Pro Bowl player means squadoosh); he can be opportunistic and doesn’t lack confidence or aggression when hitting. But he is as unreliable in coverage as you can possibly be and still pull an NFL paycheck. The Bears run a pretty straightforward coverage scheme that relies heavily on every player being in the right place and moving in predictable manner, but Meriweather repeatedly screwed it all up by meandering away from his responsibility or just plain forgetting where to go. He’ll get his hands on a few passes and make a couple of highlight reel hits, but unless Meriweather can magically develop positional integrity the entire pass defense will suffer because of his presence.

Washington would be better off giving young DeJon Gomes a chance. He flashed decent instincts and north-south tackling ability in limited reps a year ago. Veteran Reed Doughty has started off and on as an injury replacement since the Sean Taylor tragedy. He is basically an undersized extra linebacker, pretty sound in run support but a detriment in coverage beyond 10 yards downfield. Madieu Williams is hoping to reboot his career after tanking with the 49ers last year.

Special Teams: There is an intriguing camp battle for the kicking job between Graham Gano and former Texan Neil Rackers. Gano has youth on his side, though Rackers was better last year when Gano missed several kicks he needs to make. Both will likely be kicking somewhere in the NFL this year, but give the slight edge to Rackers to win the job here. Punter Sav Rocca is very consistently average though he almost never puts the ball in the end zone. Tiny Brandon Banks was terrible as a return specialist a year ago and needs a strong preseason showing to prove he merits a roster spot. Or at least he should, but the Skins don’t really have any other viable options in camp. Expect Banks to be better but to be kept on a short leash if a street free agent strikes Shanahan’s fancy. The coverage units suffer from the constant churning at the bottom of the roster, though the coverage was pretty solid a year ago.

Coaching: Mike Shanahan brought gravitas and a proven successful system to Washington two years ago, but the patience on turning in a winner is wearing thin. Now he has his quarterback in RG3, and it is incumbent upon Kyle Shanahan, the offensive coordinator, to develop him quickly. QB Coach Matt Lafleur has never handled anything remotely close to Griffin’s ability level. Jim Haslett is an aggressive defensive coordinator and former head coach, and he gets fired Bucs coach Raheem Morris to work with the secondary. Morris’ hiring will either be genius or regrettable, and we’ll know that answer quickly. Bob Slowik is widely respected as the linebackers coach, and he’s been around long enough that his son Bobby is his assistant. There is no doubting Shanahan’s confidence, but the game might have changed around him a little more than he can handle.

Breakout player: Brian Orakpo. I know, he’s already established as one of the top young pass rushers in the league. But this is the year where his production spikes upward and he moves into “elite” territory. I expect at least 13.5 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, 25 QB hurries, and 60+ tackles from Orakpo. That Griffin guy looks pretty promising too…

Forecast: Wait until next year, Skins fans. I know that is the mantra of the deluded loser, but seriously, this team has the potential to be very good. Just not this year. Chalk this year up to on-the-job training for RG3 and to see who fits with him and who needs to go. The secondary is simply not capable of winning in the NFC East unless something dramatic happens. I like the running game and I think the offensive line will progress nicely, and the defensive front 7 is young (save Fletcher) and talented. This team will improve on the field, but not in the win column thanks to a nasty break of luck from the schedule makers. They drew most of their tough non-divisional games (CIN, ATL, BAL, CAR) at home and have to face the easier ones (CLE, TB, STL) in hostile confines. There just aren’t many wins on the schedule. Washington finishes 6-10 but looks like a playoff team in 2013 if they can reinforce the back end, learn to win at home, and keep everyone healthy. 

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