2011 Record: Point Differential: +21 Turnover Margin: 0 Sack Differential: +20 Offense: 2011 Ranks Rushing: 19th Passing: 20th 3rd Down: 18th Scoring: 18th QB: Cincinnati made a concerted gamble in the 2011 NFL Draft, patiently waiting for the quarterback they really wanted to fall into the early second round. Mike Brown and his liege pounced on Andy Dalton at #35 overall and appear to have been justly rewarded for their patience and prescience. Dalton led the team to the playoffs as a rookie, displaying beyond-his-years savvy, strong accuracy, and the confidence to make the tough throws under duress. While his arm strength is not that of the man he replaced, Carson Palmer, Dalton showed he had more than enough to make any of the throws in this offense. Dalton struggled badly in the playoff loss to Houston, however, and he still has several areas to work on and improve before he can ensconce his name with the upper tiers of starting QBs in the league. He’s off to a good start though. With the Bengals ranking in the middle of every statistical metric behind Dalton as a rookie, expect an uptick across the board as he gets a full offseason to work within the system and better learn his teammates. Bruce Gradkowski returns as the backup. He brings good mobility, excellent accuracy on short throws, and plays with a beguiling energy that has proven to provide a spark on several occasions in his journeyman career. Gradkowski doesn’t have a great arm and will force throws without regard for the defense, however, and is best used as a one-game fill-in and not a long-term starter. Zac Robinson is attempting to carve out a lengthy career as a clipboard holder; he’ll have to beat out UDFA Tyler Hanson, and he should. RB: Cedric Benson did a fair job, but the Bengals sought to make a change and let him walk in free agency. To replace Benson the Bengals dipped into the free agent pool and signed BenJarvis Green-Ellis from New England. There should be little change, as both are between-the-tackles power grinders who can reliably churn out three to six yard gains but are little threat to break off longer scampers. “Law Firm” has excellent ball security and good forward lean, a very capable short-yardage back in red zone and 3rd & short. He is not, however, a legit bell-cow back that can break open a game with a big run. The Bengals hope Bernard Scott finally becomes that guy. The speedy Scott will get more of a chance as new OC Jay Gruden will employ a backfield-by-committee. Scott has excellent speed and slipperiness in the open field, but he has consistently struggled to find those open spaces. If he can find the hole quicker and more aggressively attack said hole, Scott could thrive. But he has had opportunities before and not taken advantage. Scott shouldn’t feel pushed from below on the depth chart, where underwhelming hybrid FB/HB Brian Leonard and plodding 6th round pick Dan Herron are competing for reps. Cedric Peerman gets one more shot as well, though he has shown almost no value other than special teams. Fullback Chris Pressley has one carry in two years and doesn’t see much action in the offense. WR/TE: AJ Green made the Pro Bowl as a rookie and quickly made everyone forget about the T.Ocho debacle. Green possesses exceptional size and strength for the position, and he moves with such a fluidity and economy of motion. Green quickly established himself as a big play receiver, beating the very good Joe Haden for a game-breaking grab early in the season and building off that. He has the ability to go up and get any ball thrown anywhere near him, one of the biggest catch radii in the league. There is no reason to believe he will produce anything less than 75 receptions for 1200 yards and 8 TDs in any fully healthy season going forward. Finding WR production outside of Green is Offensive Coordinator Jay Gruden‘s biggest challenge. Rookie 2nd rounder Mohamed Sanu has the inside track on starting, as he represents the best physical complement to Green. Sanu is more of an intermediate threat, a sure-handed widebody that can grind out first downs and break the occasional big one after the catch. He torched my alma mater Ohio University for 16 catches and 176 yards, so my viewpoint is perhaps a little too favorable, but I think Sanu will be an effective #2 receiver right away. Brandon Tate has done more as a return man in his young career, but he has good size and long speed to burn. If he can improve his ability at the top of the route tree, he could emerge as a solid weapon. Jordan Shipley returns to the slot role, provided he can get (and stay) healthy. He is small even for a small guy at 5’7” and 170 pounds in pads, but Shipley has great shiftiness and quickness in the slot. Shipley will reliably catch the ball, but he missed almost the entire season a year ago. He missed two seasons at Texas with similar leg problems, so depending on Shipley to man the fort for 16 games is foolish. The Bengals still have his 2011 replacement, Andrew Hawkins, but there are indications form early OTAs that the similarly diminutive Hawkins will have to show marked improvement in route running and blocking to keep his roster spot. Binns and Sanu are both options inside in 3-wide looks, particularly if rookie 5th rounder Marvin Jones develops quickly. Jones really stood out during Senior Bowl week and has a wide catch radius, though he needs to be more aggressive and sudden. The Bengals seldom use packages with more than 3 wideouts on the field, as Gruden’s offense likes to throw to running backs and use multiple tight end sets instead. So the rest of the depth chart is more about being a potential injury replacement than seeing loads of action. Rookie local product Amon Binns from the University of Cincinnati figures to top this heap after impressing everyone in early OTAs. He has decent size and sticky hands, a better prospect than recent overhyped Bearcat prospect Mardy Gilyard. Tight end Jermaine Gresham benefitted from Dalton’s presence. Gresham doesn’t have the speed of the new wave of flexed-out tight ends, but he releases well and presents a big target in tight quarters. The dearth of talent at receiver makes Gresham all the more important. Expect at least 70 receptions for about 900 yards and more than a handful of touchdowns for this handful in the red zone. And for the first time in decades, the Bengals actually have more than one legit receiving threat at tight end with rookie Orson Charles. The Georgia product is smaller but brings very good vertical speed to the seam, and he gives solid effort as a blocker. They use a lot of “12” personnel packages (1 RB, 2 TE) and Charles gives them two viable passing options, an intriguing new wrinkle if Charles is mature enough to handle it. Donald Lee and Colin Cochart will battle it out for the #3 role. Expect Lee to stick and perhaps stay ahead of Charles if the rookie is slow to pick things up, though Lee is much less dynamic. OL: When listing the top tackles in the league, most people omit Andrew Whitworth. Big mistake. Whitworth has grown into an excellent all-around performer capable of dominating at times. He will still surrender the odd sack here and there and doesn’t have the elite range of Joe Thomas or Jake Long, but Whitworth is right there with the cream of the next tier. Country strong and boasting a fierce demeanor despite being a genuinely nice guy off the field, Whitworth is an excellent run blocker and a locker room glue guy. On the right side, the shrinking Andre Smith is growing into the player the Bengals envisioned when they made him a somewhat surprising #6 overall pick in 2009. After battling weight and agility issues early on, Smith is in much better shape and has learned how to keep his feet square. That resulted in a monumental leap in pass protection for the right tackle. He still struggles remembering the snap count at times and doesn’t get down the field or down block as well as preferred, but he’s become a solid starter still possessing some legit upside. There is solid, experienced depth at both tackle spots with veterans Anthony Collins and Dennis Roland. Collins could start for many teams, but the Bengals wisely locked him up to a new 2-year deal to keep the depth chart stocked. Roland sees action as a 6th lineman in short yardage packages, and at 6’8” he makes an intriguing red zone TE target if Gruden gets real creative. The inside was a weakness a year ago, and the Bengals have gone through great lengths to shore it up. Free agent left guard Travelle Wharton comes from Carolina, where he was an above-average performer noted for being exceptional as a run blocker on the move. The converted tackle should make a big upgrade in the run game, where Bobbie Williams and Clint Boling really struggled last year. Kyle Cook returns at center after a down year. Cook is durable and smart, but lacks great explosion or power off the snap and can be slow to react to stunts and delayed blitzes. The Bengals tried another free agent at right guard, but Jacob Bell opted to retire after multiple concussions. That made drafting Kevin Zeitler from Wisconsin in the 1st round a huge imperative. He is the prototypical Big 10 interior lineman--bulky, surly, physical, aggressive to the point of excessive, not terribly agile or quick in space. I actually like Zeitler better as a center than guard, but like Wharton he will upgrade the run blocking without sacrificing much (if anything) in pass protection. Boling, who looked over his head as a rookie last year, is the top reserve, presuming he can hold off a pair of 2010 draftees in Otis Hudson and Reggie Stephens. It is important the starters gel quickly and stay healthy. Defense: 2011 Ranks Rushing: 10th Passing: 9th 3rd Down: 14th Scoring: 9th DL: This is one of the strongest units in the league, spearheaded by perhaps the most underrated player in the NFL: Geno Atkins. The second-year tackle rampaged his way to 7.5 sacks while also stuffing several runs for no gain and getting in the way of three passes. Atkins was a regular fixture in opposing backfields, while fellow tackle Domata Peko provided the immovable object to balance his aggressive gap shooting. Peko is one of the best interior run stuffers in the league, as he is both active and blessed with great anchor strength. He seldom does anything against the pass and must be kept fresh. To that end, the Bengals drafted a pair of reinforcements in Devon Still and Brandon Thompson. Each went one round later than this draftnik thought they merited, with Still in the 2nd and Thompson in the 3rd. Still could have a sizeable impact in passing situations, where he was largely unblockable during his Penn State tenure. Both he and Thompson suffered from the perception that they need to be kept to limited snaps, but with the depth here that won’t be an issue. Still is a darkhorse candidate to lead all rookies in sacks. Pat Sims will have to earn his backup role back after missing half of last season. He’s more of a widebody than the rookies. The defensive end positions are up for a training camp battle royale steel cage death match. With former starter Frostee Rucker now in Cleveland and key reserve Jonathan Fanene in New England, the depth chart is subject to wild fluctuations. It’s probably easier to just list the combatants in what I believe is the pecking order heading into camp: Michael Johnson, Carlos Dunlap, Robert Geathers, Derrick Harvey, Jamaal Anderson. What do all of those guys except Geathers have in common? All have better name recognition than actual NFL skills and were drafted as such. That’s probably a bit harsh on Dunlap, who struggled with some nagging injuries in his second year after rushing for 9.5 sacks as a rookie. He has the best potential of the group as a pass rusher, though probably best served being only a pass rusher. Geathers has earned the trust of the coaches for being positionally sound, but he lacks the upside of any of the others. The tradeoff is that he’s more of an achiever. Johnson was the best closer of the group last year, getting 6.5 sacks and 13.5 hurries. By way of comparison, Dunlap bagged just four sacks but 20.5 hurries and Geathers netted 2.5 sacks and 10 hurries. Johnson has played some linebacker, though at 6’7” he looked really awkward doing anything but pressing the edge. He showed up to camp with increased bulk and has impressed onlookers. *Harvey was released on 8/4, the third time the former 1st round pick has been released. LB: The starting three remain the same, with Rey Maualuga flanked on the strong side by Manny Lawson and the weak side by Thomas Howard. It wound up being a better unit than expected, as Maualuga moved from the outside and the other two were newcomers that had been somewhat disappointing in their prior homes. Maualuga’s main strength is attacking the run downhill, and putting him in the middle played to his abilities. In fact, Defensive Coordinator Mike Zimmer essentially allowed Maualuga to only have to worry about the running back on every snap. He still can’t shed a block or change direction in space, and he’s completely lost against play action and scrambling quarterbacks, but Zimmer found a way to surround him with the right kind of players. He is in a contract year, which is normally a positive but could wind up making Maualuga press too hard and miss even more plays he should be making. Lawson was a bust as a pass rushing OLB in San Francisco’s 3-4 scheme, but he reinvented himself nicely as a coverage specialist backer in Cincinnati. He might be the best man coverage backer on tight ends in the AFC. Nobody will ever mistake Lawson for a pit bull, but he fills a role nicely. Howard has speed to burn on the weak side but never really put it together in Oakland. He wound up leading the team in tackles with 99 and reliably chased down plays that the rest of the front seven missed. Unlike Maualuga, Howard is very much an east-west player that seldom makes plays anywhere near the line. Backup comes in the form of Dan Skuta and Vincent Rey outside, and uh, well, hmm…Both Skuta and Rey are more noted for their special teams play, though Skuta has chipped in a few tackles and QB pressures in spot duty. The Grand Valley State product has a great motor and hits hard but can be stiff in open space. Rey is almost a carbon copy of Skuta, and they’re even identically sized at 6’2” and 248 pounds. With Keith Rivers ingloriously traded to the Giants, yet another 6’2” and 240-something pounder with limited experience is the primary interior backup. That would be Roderick Muckelroy, who missed all of 2011. Dontay Moch was a 3rd round pick a year ago but has done nothing to guarantee a roster spot; he never played because of serious migraines as a rookie and is suspended for the first four games for illegal substances, perhaps to deal with the intense head pain. Coach Zimmer specifically called him out in early OTAs, presumably to light a fire. We’ll see if the sparks catch this summer, or else Moch will be out of a job to Brandon Joiner or perhaps even celebrated knucklehead UDFA Vontaze Burfict. He would be a wonderful reclamation project for a team that prides itself in producing those stories, and in Cincinnati his skills and take-no-prisoners recklessness make him an ideal candidate to back up Maualuga. Secondary: A healthy Leon Hall would help cure a lot of what ails the back four. Hall is a legit #1 corner when healthy, but that might be problematic going forward. He went down in mid-November with a torn Achilles tendon and has yet to be cleared for training camp in late July. The team is optimistic and Hall asserts he will be a full go, but that’s not an injury rehab to rush. Hall is a strong, physical corner with decent ball skills and good run support off the edge, though he lacks deep speed to stay with the faster receivers. Nate Clements starts on the other side, though he really started showing his age (32) as last year progressed. He struggled in coverage the more physical AFC North after some solid years in San Francisco and carries as much value as a veteran leader/mentor as he does a cover man these days. Clements remains one of the very best pound-for-pound tacklers in the league, which helps make up for his fading speed. The problem is that the rest of the corner population is real iffy. Rookie 1st rounder Dre Kirkpatrick will be given every chance to take over for Clements. He’s big, physical, and comes from a program in Alabama where Coach Nick Saban grooms his beloved secondaries directly for NFL play. Like Hall, Kirkpatrick has some trouble with speedier receivers and will bite on double moves. None of the top three are really geared for playing in the slot and matching up with the Wes Welkers and Percy Harvins of the modern NFL. Veteran Terrance Newman will try to milk one more year out of his tired, old bones after being summarily discarded by the CB-needy Cowboys. Pacman Jones is finally getting his act together, but in his mellowing compliance he has become a less effective cover man, which was never his strong suit to begin with. If Mr. Jones continues to embrace his newfound role as a scared straight mentor to the immature Kirkpatrick, he’s worth his roster spot in raining strip club cash. They also signed yet another former 1st round pick in Jason Allen, who has quietly shed the bust label from his Miami days with a decent performance on a much-improved Houston defense. Allen still tries to intercept every pass, even those twenty feet over his head, but he showed better ability to jam and then turn and run. He has great length and can also play safety in a pinch. As long as Hall gets back to his old self relatively quickly and Kirkpatrick can handle his business like a rookie 1st rounder should, the coverage will be fine. But if neither of those happens there is potentially big trouble in River City. Safety is a problem area, though it’s not for a lack of trying all sorts of option by team management. Reggie Nelson somehow continues to manage being much more highly regarded by fans than his play dictates, though he was fairly solid in 2011. He is opportunistic and confident but frequently cheats too far in trying to bait the quarterback and gets to the outside/deep coverage help a beat late. But next to presumed fellow starter Taylor Mays, Nelson is downright reliable. I’ll openly admit to a bias against Mays from extensively scouting him in 2010 that I will cling to until he proves otherwise. Mays is one of the most impressive physical specimens I’ve ever seen, but he has zero football instincts and inadequate lateral range and flexibility. I’ll defer to a quote from former NFL safety Donovan Darius during Senior Bowl week; when Mays failed to read a play my 7-year old son could see coming, Darius yelled out “what the f*** are you waiting for?! You know you’re allowed to anticipate, right?” Rookie George Iloka has a similar problem of being a great athlete playing on railroad tracks, though he at least has some feel for deciphering an offense. Jeromey Miles is strictly a special teams player at this point, though if he can show any cover skills at all he could move up the depth chart. Special Teams: The Bengals were very good in coverage and have two of the better special teamers in the league in Cedric Peerman and Jeromey Miles leading the way. Mike Nugent is an excellent kickoff guy and made a lot of clutch field goals last year, notching 132 points. Curiously, he was better beyond 40 yards than he was between 30 and 40 even though his FG range tops out right at 50 yards. Nugent struggled down the stretch so it bears watching how seriously they challenge him if he starts slowly. Hometown hero (the Bengals have a strong stock of local products) Kevin Huber is a decidedly nondescript punter. The return units were largely dreadful, as Brandon Tate really struggled to find creases and the blocking in front of him was often outgunned. Coaching: Marvin Lewis keeps on ticking, earning a contract extension for guiding the Bengals to the playoffs two of the last three seasons. He has his fair share of (valid) critics, but given the context of the meddling and spendthrift ownership of Mike Brown and the lack of control over personnel decisions, Lewis has proven to be a steadying force in an often turbulent situation. He has two of the best assistants in the game in DC Mike Zimmer and OL Coach Paul Alexander. Jay Gruden gets a full offseason to implement his rather complicated offense, which should help what was often a sputtering attack a year ago. There is a great deal of young talent, and that will require strong teaching skills from the coaching staff. The Bengals have the people in place to make that happen. Breakout player: Michael Johnson. The third-year end arrived at camp noticeably bulkier but in great physical shape. The increased muscle should help him get off blocks and be more than just an edge rusher. With a very good tackle rotation inside that will prevent teams from helping, Johnson could hit double digits in sacks while also playing better run defense. Forecast: The hard part here is determining who the “real” Bengals are; was the 4-12 of 2010 or the playoff team of 2011 the true stripes of the tiger? I strongly believe it’s the latter. The young QB/WR tandem will only improve, while the upgrades to the run blocking and tight end depth will help as well. Defensively this team is woefully underappreciated in the front seven, though I do have serious concerns about the back end. Look for this team to open strongly, as the early schedule is very favorable after the opener in Baltimore. They could very well hit their Week 7 bye at 5-2 or even 6-1. They’ll need every one of those wins because the second half schedule looks brutal. That’s why I think the lessons they learned a year ago in how to win close games will pay off handsomely. Cincinnati is the surprise winner of the AFC North by virtue of a Week 17 home victory over the Ravens, an outcome that will put them at 10-6 and earning the #3 seed in the AFC playoffs. You read that right, people… [email protected] or Twitter @JeffRisdon