2011 Record: Point Differential: +8 Turnover Margin: +1 Sack Differential: +4 Offense: 2011 Ranks Rushing: 31st Passing: 12th 3rd Down: 19th Scoring: 22nd QB: Matt Hasselbeck somewhat unexpectedly held down the fort in 2011 despite the Titans drafting Jake Locker in the top 10. Far from being just a caretaking placeholder, Hasselbeck turned in a pretty strong first season in Nashville. Staying healthy has been a recurring issue for the grizzled vet, and he did miss a few series last year. But if he stays upright, Hasselbeck is an excellent distributor of the ball with great touch on short and intermediate passes and just enough arm to threaten down the field. The 18/14 TD/INT ratio is as much a reflection of his receivers not being open near enough as it is Hasselbeck making a ton of mistakes. Expect more of the same, a relatively pedestrian TD rate and yards per attempt but a high completion percentage and the ability to string together several plays on time-consuming drives that keep the Titans defense fresh and the opposing defense off balance. That is, if Hasselbeck can successfully fend off a challenge from 2011 1st round pick Jake Locker. My thoughts on Locker are best summed up a video I did heading into the 2011 draft. Look it up on YouTube, my used name is ICness and I’m sorry about my bad hair and voice for silent movies. In short, I like everything about Jake Locker as a quarterback except when he throws the ball, where he is decidedly less accurate than one much-maligned Mr. Tebow. In spot duty last year (5 games) Locker completed just 51% of his passes, which is actually better than what standard projections for a rookie should have predicted (over the last 13 seasons rookie QBs can predictably drop 4-5% in completion accuracy from their final two college seasons; Locker was at 53.6% those years). The Titans have been an ideal place for Locker thus far, not handing him the job and giving him a veteran mentor/competitor to help iron out Locker’s persistent issues with throwing fundamentals. This is what teams used to do with project quarterbacks, and my sincere hope is that the Titans let Hasselbeck run the show in 2012 while once again spoon feeding Locker a handful of series here and there when the pressure is low. The best case scenario for Locker is another year of throwing 50-75 passes while splitting first-team reps in practice and then taking over the helm in 2013. However, the early indications from training camp are that Locker has the inside track to start this year. Rusty Smith returns to hold the clipboard. He was a complete embarrassment in his one career start, getting shut out by one of the worst defenses in NFL history in the Texans. UDFA Nick Stephens will give him a challenge in camp, but expect the well-liked Smith to hold the job one more year. Should injuries hit hard, expect the Titans to bring in a street veteran before playing Smith. RB: The difference between this running game being a potent weapon or an unreliable one is the mental state of Chris Johnson. When Johnson has been focused and motivated, he is arguably the best running back in the league. He has the 2,000 yard season to prove it. He also has last year’s muddling 1, 047 yard, acrimonious effort following a contract holdout. Johnson is perhaps the fastest man in the NFL, but last year he became too enamored with simply trying to outrun everyone on every play and wound up taking far too many negative runs and big hits. His final three games of the season, against each of the Titans’ division rivals, were a perfect microcosm. In each game he had 15 carries and produced 55, 56, and 61 yards without sniffing the end zone, and with exactly 3 carries that produced losses and one run over 10 yards in each game. A more decisive, more physical Johnson can certainly vault back to the top of every fantasy geek’s running back list by the end of this year. It would help if he could do a little more in the receiving game. Not that CJ2K isn’t a good receiver; he averages almost 53 catches a year and pulled down 57 in 2011. But far too many times he simply caught the ball and went down on first contact, as his 57 receptions produced just 13 first downs. Hasselbeck loves to check down, but when he does so his backs must get better yardage. Expect Johnson to improve in that area in 2012, perhaps quite significantly. Backup Javon Ringer was an even bigger disappointment than Johnson a year ago. Widely expected to be a very good #2 runner, Ringer consistently struggled to find the hole and get through it unencumbered. It often looked like he was running in molasses. As good as Ringer is at breaking the first contact, when he fails to run away from the cavalry it doesn’t matter much. At least Ringer held his own as a receiver, where he remains a very good option out of the backfield. He is the one offensive player that could really benefit from a QB change to Locker, as he played at Michigan State with the very similar Drew Stanton. Jamie Harper saw little action as a rookie, though he has the bulk (235 pounds) to perhaps see more carries as a short-yardage back. Fullback Quinn Johnson takes over the blocking role from the underappreciated Amhard Hall. Johnson is less of a sledgehammer than Hall and made just 3 receptions in four games during his first season after coming over from Green Bay. WR/TE: A lot here depends on the physical and mental well-being of Kenny Britt. The big Rutgers product has shown legit star potential in his first three seasons, truly one of the most gifted downfield wideouts in the league. Britt is capable of game-breaking greatness and highlight-reel touchdown grabs, the kind of receiver that demands extra attention from the defense and can take over a contest. But it comes with some major caveats; Britt missed 13 games last year after tearing his ACL, and he has started just 16 games during that time because of injuries and various attitudinal reasons. Yet another arrest this summer puts his long-term future very much in doubt, and his apparent lack of remorse for his immature thuggery reminds a lot of long-time Tennessee observers of a certain ex-Titan nicknamed after a yellow video game icon. Hoping to hedge their bets, the Titans used their first round pick on Baylor’s Kendall Wright. The silky smooth deep threat thrived while playing with the agile RGIII, and he’s great at taking off after the catch on bubble screens and short hitches. A poor workout season, most notably a stunning 4.6+ 40 time, took some of the luster off his draft star. The Titans are thankful he fell, as he presents them with (potentially) two serious down the field threats. Make no mistake, Wright is a pick specifically for the Jake Locker era; if Hasselbeck starts all 16 games, a lot of fans (and fantasy geeks) are probably going to be disappointed in Wright because he lacks Locker’s booming arm and willingness to take shots down the field. Be patient with Wright as he learns more complex routes (a signature feature of OC Chris Palmer’s passing game) and builds up a legit NFL body. Nate Washington figures to be the #3 receiver, a spot which the Titans use more than most teams as their base package. Washington is the perfect type of receiver for Hasselbeck; he runs great routes, gets open quickly on short options, and inherently finds the holes in the zone. That led him to a freakish (for him) 2011, as his 74 receptions were more than 30 catches higher than his career average. With Wright in the mix and Britt (maybe) a full go for the majority of the season, expect Washington to drop back down to the 50 catch, 700 yard range. That’s solid for a third banana but not the dynamic presence most teams prefer as their slot/underneath guy. As with most former Steelers wideouts of the last 15 years, Washington is a very good run blocker. Beyond the top three the pool isn’t real deep. Damian Williams has been a bit of a disappointment and might need a strong summer to survive on the roster. As with nearly every USC wideout since Keyshawn Johnson (Steve Smith is the exception), Williams runs lazy routes, has poor concentration, and has trouble separating down the field. He did show progress with his hands last year and could transform himself into a possession receiver if he works hard enough at it. Lavelle Hawkins is more of the prototypical shifty slot guy, but his yards per catch keeps declining the more he catches the ball. He’s perfectly adequate as a #4 receiver, nothing more. Marc Mariani is on the team for his special teams prowess, which took a decline last year. James Kirkendoll couldn’t stick a year ago but is in camp trying to show his athletic freakishness can translate into NFL skills. I like the tight ends here. Jared Cook finally started to really put it together last year after a somewhat disappointing early career. He finished with a bang, getting 21 catches for over 300 yards in the final three games and looking like he finally figured out how to explode off the line. If that progress sticks, Cook has the athletic package to make a major leap in production, particularly if Britt takes another extended absence. He is lithe enough to play slot receiver and his blocking has improved. Look for a big output from Cook in his contract year. Craig Stevens is a great #2 tight end for this team. He is a physical blocker, but he’s also just athletic enough to threaten defenses if they ignore him as a receiver. Intriguing rookie Taylor Thompson is making the transformation from college defensive end but has impressed onlookers in early camp and workouts with his acumen. Give him a year, Titans fans, and you could very well have a poor man’s Rob Gronkowski. Seriously. OL: The Titans are stacked with starting tackles Michael Roos and David Stewart, each of whom ranks among the best in the league at their positions despite not quite being elite status. Roos bounced back from a bad 2010 by allowing just two sacks and often sapping the will out of frustrated pass rushers. He is a massive wall with good feet when he’s on his game, and there is little reason to think his one bad year was anything but a fluke. Expect a Pro Bowl caliber season from the left tackle. Stewart is straight out of central casting for right tackles: long, strong, physical, and surly. When the Titans did have success running last year, it was often behind Stewart snowplowing defenders out of the way. He’s not the quickest guy in pass protection but his sheer length and effort generally give the quarterback time to get rid of the ball. As a pair, this will be their 7th season starting together and that kind of continuity is invaluable. The Titans even have a solid #3 tackle in Mike Otto, one they felt strong enough about to pay well above the going rate for reserves to keep in the fold. Otto is more than capable of filling in for a series or even a half at either position with not much drop off. The drop off comes inside, where Coach Mike Munchak has to shake his head and wonder how it came to this. Desperation comes in the form of antique left guard Steve Hutchinson, emigrating from his mega-deal in Minnesota and trying desperately to milk his Hall of Fame-caliber career in the first decade of this century into one more season. It’s hard to think Hutch could be any worse than Leroy Harris was a year ago, but Titans fans beware: this is not your older brother’s Steve Hutchinson. The legs just aren’t there anymore to get out and lead the charge down the field, though he is still an adequate pass protector against even fronts. The aforementioned Harris moves to the right guard spot, where his inability to anchor against even the more pedestrian pass rushers won’t be so magnified. Harris has been better in the past, so there is some hope for a rebound campaign with the position change, but on most teams he is the top interior reserve…at best. But the real weak link is center Eugene Amano, a lightweight holding machine that offers almost nothing as a run blocker. They courted various upgrade possibilities this offseason but came up empty. Backup Kevin (son of Bruce) Matthews has yet to assert himself, while Fernando Velasquez is a journeyman that happens to have spent his whole career in one city. Defense: 2011 Ranks Rushing: 24th Passing: 14th 3rd Down: 23rd Scoring: 8th DL: This unit must improve at both run defense and getting pressure on the quarterback, which could be tough given the fact they lack a true standout talent anywhere up front. The hope is that Derrick Morgan can finally live up to his lofty draft status (16th overall in 2010) at one end spot and free agent Kamerion Wimbley can produce double-digit sacks on the other side. That’s asking a lot but it’s plausible. Wimbley bagged just 6.5 sacks last year in Oakland, but he did register 30 QB hurries while playing OLB. Getting him back to his more familiar end position should allow him to utilize his quickness even more, and he is stout enough against the run to make the move back. Wimbley must finish those pressures more frequently, something that has been a struggle since his stellar rookie season in Cleveland. Morgan must get and stay healthy, which has been problematic in his first two seasons. He has just 4.5 sacks and 35 total tackles in 19 career games, and two of those sacks produced just one yard losses. If his knees get stronger, Morgan certainly has the potential to duplicate his career numbers in just half a year, but it’s to the point where we must see it to believe it. If the two starters cannot combine for at least 18 sacks and 50 pressures, it’s going to really hurt the overall defense. Top reserve Dave Ball is a high effort plugger who broke out with 7 sacks two years ago but fell to just four last year in DC Jerry Gray’s new scheme. Don’t expect more than four again, and don’t expect half that from Leger Douzable, another free agent signing to build depth and add bulk to the end position. Though the interior crew doesn’t have a lot of pass rush oomph, there is a decent collection of young talent. The rotation of Jurell Casey, SenDerrick Marks, Karl Klug, and rookie Mike Martin should improve against the run from a year ago and be able to chip in a few sacks. Klug actually led the team in sacks last year (7), and he is quick with very strong hands to get himself free. Some of that success came in twists with now-departed Jason Jones, so breaking the five sack barrier again is perhaps overly optimistic. Still, Klug is a solid all-around talent inside and just entering his prime years. Yet Klug doesn’t start on this unit, instead rotating in behind Casey and Marks. Casey was pretty sturdy as a rookie, showing good acumen for shedding a block and contributing to the tackle. He has good size and understands leverage concepts. Another year of experience and Casey could emerge as a real force inside. Marks doesn’t show up a lot in the stat column but he is a smart player that understands his role well. He’s the greybeard of the main rotation at 25. Young Malcolm Sheppard can play both end and tackle, which posits him to take over Jones’ role. He’s not as quick or skilled as Jones but has some developmental potential. Shaun Smith adds a lot of veteran beef, though his play (and behavior) is wildly inconsistent. LB: Last year the Titans drafted two linebackers, and as happens a lot more frequently than you might think the player drafted later dramatically outplayed the earlier pick. Fourth rounder Colin McCarthy was simply too good to keep off the field, usurping lightweight Barrett Ruud in the middle halfway through last season. I liked McCarthy quite a bit coming out of Miami and tabbed him as a “boom” in my annual boom/bust pre-draft column, but even this supporter was surprised by how quickly he made such an impact. He was easily the best coverage backer on the team, and his play against the run showed steady progress. McCarthy showed some ability to make plays in the backfield and tremendous instincts. He frequently had to cover for fellow rookie Akeem Ayers, the second round pick. Ayers put up solid stats with over 70 tackles and two sacks, but the numbers don’t tell the full story; he consistently overran plays and missed far too many opportunities. Game charters credited (blamed?) him with 11 missed tackles, but to register as a missed tackle the defender actually has to make contact. There were at least that many occasions where Ayers completely whiffed by overrunning the play or diving at feet and coming up empty. He was spotty in coverage, again making too many mistakes as a result of being impatient. I expect Ayers to improve with experience and a full summer of camp but it’s hard for a leopard to change his spots quickly. Ayers is not entirely dissimilar from Will Witherspoon, the starter on the other side. Both are smallish and have games predicated on reacting quickly and closing with great speed. Witherspoon is good in open space but struggles mightily in traffic, and he seldom makes plays near the line. The Titans drafted his replacement in Zach Brown, who is more like an oversized safety/track star than a linebacker. Brown can fly and could pair with Ayers to make one of the speediest nickel LB packages in history, but how that translates into actual coverage and tackling remains to be seen. This is a group that has serious vulnerability to smashmouth football, especially if the big boys up front don’t win their battles. Depth is shaky. Texans castoff Zac Diles special teams specialists Patrick Bailey and Tim Shaw are the top reserves after Brown, with Diles the only viable (relatively speaking) backup in the middle. Disappointing Gerald McGrath, who lost his starting job to Ayers after two uninspired seasons, must show he merits a roster spot. Secondary: This unit is going to look different, as starting CB Cortland Finnegan and S Chris Hope are both gone. Finnegan never left the field a year ago, playing every single defensive snap. That is going to be hard to replace, though Finnegan has been inconsistent in his career (but great last year). Alterruan Verner and Jason McCourty will start at corner after taking turns starting opposite Finnegan the past two years. McCourty is the better all-around player, while Verner has more shutdown corner potential but is also more inconsistent. McCourty has good size and is very good in run support making more plays on runners than any other corner in the league in 2011. He got picked on quite a bit in coverage as Finnegan was having a great season, and for the most part McCourty held his own. He’s not a great playmaker on the ball and does need help over the top with faster wideouts. Verner is smaller and more apt to get his hands on the ball. Expect him to slide inside in nickel packages, where he has played well before. The biggest question is, who are the nickel and dime backs? Ryan Mouton was a 3rd round pick the same year McCourty was taken in the 6th, but he has really struggled with injuries. He missed all of 2011 with a torn Achilles and was not a person of note in offseason action. Chris Hawkins played sparingly as a rookie last year, though the coaches love his length (6’1”) and commitment to his craft. Tommie Campbell played only on special teams in his rookie year, and the team might move him back to safety, which he played at California PA. 4th round pick Coty Sensabaugh and Patriots draft failure Terrence Wheatley are also in the mix. I like Sensabaugh to some extent but they can’t rush him. Michael Griffin never leaves the field as the free safety. Overhyped but not without legit talent, Griffin has strong short-range cover skills and is a willing tackler. He doesn’t have the range of the ideal center fielder and he tends to give too much room outside and deep. For playing nearly every snap the last three years, his 7 INTs and 26 PDs are a little underwhelming. When Hope went down last year, free agent Jordan Babineaux stepped in and will continue in the starting strong safety role. Babineaux misses too many tackles for my liking, and he had just two plays on balls in the air in the final seven games. He could be pushed by 6th round rookie Markelle Martin, who gave up a lot of yardage but seemingly always made key plays at key times at Oklahoma State. That’s sort of the antithesis of this defense a year ago, which was largely pretty good against the pass most of the time bu struggled to get stops on 3rd down and in the red zone. Young Robert Johnson gets one more chance to prove he can make an active roster, while Bears castoff Al Afalava and competent journeyman Aaron Francisco will fight as much for special teams roles as anything they can bring to the defense. Finnegan’s strong year hid a lot of potential weak points a year ago, and there could eb a repeat of 2010 when Finnegan was awful and it dragged the whole defense down. Special Teams: Rob Bironas is one of the more reliable kickers in the league history, ranking 3rd all-time in FG accuracy. He is coming off a monster season where he nailed 6 of 7 from beyond 50 yards, and Bironas hasn’t missed an extra point since 2005. Punter Brett Kern doesn’t have a great leg but is good at putting the ball high and angling to a side to prevent easy returns. The coverage units are very good, and the speedy young reserves in the defensive back seven play a big part in that. Returner Marc Mariani burst onto the scene in 2010 but regressed last year, and the return units led the league in penalties. Expect better results there this year as this is a very well-coached unit that really takes pride in being strong. Mariani reminds me a lot of former Browns/Chiefs return specialist Dino Hall. Coaching: Mike Munchak is a Hall Of Fame member as an offensive lineman and has spent his whole post-collegiate life with this organization. His loyalty and dedication to the team is unquestioned. But his first year as head coach was pockmarked with issues as he learned on the job with a brand new collection of assistant coaches. Only special teams coach Alan Lowry and TE coach John Zernhelt have been in their positions longer than two years. Expect better coordination and more teaching for the young players that now have some familiarity with the system after a 2011 that was all about change. I’ve never been a fan of OC Chris Palmer, who runs a complex timing system that is often beyond the grasp of his players, and he has a long track record of turning highly picked QBs into mincemeat (David Carr, Tim Couch, Eli Manning before Palmer left). DC Jerry Gray could be a popular head coaching candidate if his unit turns in a strong season. Breakout player: Jared Cook. The athletically gifted tight end finished 2011 on a tear, and I strongly believe that will carry over into 2012. I expect more than 50 receptions, over 800 yards, and better play in the red zone that will lead to at least 5 TDs, and those guesstimates are conservative if Britt misses extended time. Forecast: This Tennessee team finished 9-7 a year ago, with wins over three AFC playoff teams (BAL, HOU, DEN)--the only AFC team to accomplish that feat. Clearly the ability to hang with the big boys is here, but it needs to show more consistently. But finding that consistency will be tough, what with a summer QB battle and a shaken-up secondary that gets scant help from a think pass rush. Still, if Chris Johnson returns to form and Hasselbeck starts all 16 games, I think this is a playoff team that can surprise a lot of people with 10 or even 11 wins. Yet I don’t buy into the consistency and I certainly do not buy into Jake Locker’s accuracy issues. Much like last year, Tennessee will pull off some eyebrow-raising wins over strong teams (calling them early: Week 3 over DET, Week 5 over PIT) but get tripped up in too many games against fellow AFC playoff contenders (SD, HOU, BUF, NE, NYJ). The Titans repeat at 9-7 but once again fall just short of a playoff berth. [email protected] or Twitter @JeffRisdon