2011 Record: Point Differential: -89 Turnover Margin: +1 Sack Differential: -6 Offense: 2011 Ranks Rushing: 28th Passing: 24th 3rd Down: 11th Scoring: 30th QB: It appears the Colt McCoy Era has come to an end with the drafting of Brandon Weeden in the first round. While this might cause some short-term consternation with an exasperated fan base, it is a necessary evil if the Browns ever want to legitimately threaten for an AFC North title. Weeden comes from Oklahoma State with an interesting background, a 28-year old former minor league pitcher who eviscerated the weak pass defenses of the Big 12 the past few years. His arm strength, accuracy on deeper throws, and willingness to attempt a throw into a tight window jumped out as vastly superior to McCoy from the first round of OTAs. Weeden throws the best intermediate and seam route balls of any QB in this past draft class, Andrew Luck included. He is mature enough to handle the locker room right away and his experience will help him deal with the inevitable adversity of trying to lead a perennial doormat to glory in a brutal division. But there will be blood. At Oklahoma State he ran a shotgun-heavy, quick read offense out of the spread, none of which are remotely familiar in the Pat Shurmur version of the West Coast offense. (rant: there are so many wrinkles and variations to what is commonly referred to as the West Coast offense that the term itself is basically meaningless these days, but I will swim along with the tide that still overuses it.) Weeden lacks mobility to the point where you wonder if he is 38 and not 28. He got rattled by pressure in his face more than some pundits like to see, and he often checked down without giving his receivers enough of a chance to beat their men. The Big 12 was not exactly filled with tough defenses, and many QBs from that conference have underwhelmed in the NFL. I believe Weeden will be a tangible and significant upgrade over McCoy right out of the gate, but I would not put big money on it. The hiring of Brad Childress as the offensive coordinator will help as well, as he is a sage developer of quarterbacks and a no-nonsense type of coach that should mesh well with a similar persona. What will happen with McCoy is a popular watering hole topic in northeast Ohio this summer. Will the team keep him around as a backup, a rather humiliating demotion but also a chance to save face should Weeden fall flat or get hurt? Will they attempt to trade him to a team in need of an experienced backup with great locker room qualities and consummate professionalism? Or will Team President Mike Holmgren simply sever ties by unceremoniously cutting the 2010 third round pick? I have heard all three as distinct possibilities from different sources around the team. My current guess is that McCoy will not be with the team in September and Holmgren will opt to go with the more experienced, less controversial Seneca Wallace as the backup. Wallace has spent the last decade in this offensive system and brings the added bonus of mobility. Not that McCoy lacks mobility, but Wallace is more of a threat to tuck and run and has shown better escapability when surprised by the pressure. In limited duty Wallace has provided an occasional spark, but more often than not he was not an upgrade over McCoy. His accuracy can get way out of whack and he has a nasty propensity to not know where the safeties are headed when he looks down the field. Wallace is more expensive than McCoy, which could factor in the decision as well. Thaddeus Lewis would then get the No. 3 role, and the Duke product probably deserves that opportunity. RB: Not content to start a rookie just at quarterback, the Browns will trot out third overall pick Trent Richardson as the starting running back. He is the best RB prospect to hit the league since Adrian Peterson, and the Browns are effusively optimistic that Richardson can have the same kind of impact. It is not out of the question. Richardson has an outstanding package of speed, power, size, balance, and vision. Most backs have two or three of those qualities, but at Alabama Richardson displayed all of them. Because he split the load in college, his legs are fresh and his knees structurally sound, a rarity these days. He can also catch the ball out of the backfield and does not shy away from blocking. It is hard to not love his potential, and the Browns are banking on him as the centerpiece of what they hope is a quick turnaround. There is depth behind Richardson, but it all comes with injury issues. Montario Hardesty and Brandon Jackson are both coming off serious injury. Jackson missed all of last season with turf toe after signing as a free agent from Green Bay, while Hardesty got just 15 carries after a 33-attempt Week 7 in which he partially tore his calf muscle. He missed his entire rookie campaign in 2010 after undergoing a full knee reconstruction, and team observers noted he still walks with a distinct limp this summer. Jackson looked good in early OTAs and he has the skill set to handle the change-of-pace back role nicely. He is a good receiver with some natural shiftiness in space, though he is not going to threaten anyone between the tackles. I will continue to wave my flag for Chris Ogbonnaya, who enters camp as the #4 back. I will concede he is terrible in pass protection and has some fumbling issues, but the guy has serious speed and hits the hole with purpose and explosion. He might have a hard time earning a spot over rookie Adonis Thomas, who is a better receiver and runs with the same sort of high-speed, caution-to-the-wind insouciance. Owen Marecic is the prototypical West Coast (carrying the cliche forward!) offense fullback. He is not a powerful, mauling blocker, but is fairly nimble and can catch the ball. The Browns did not use him much, and the drafting of Brad Smelley, a more accomplished receiver, could make for an interesting camp battle. Marecic was a linebacker in college and could carve out a role as a special teams ace that can backup multiple spots. Smelley cleared holes for Richardson at Alabama and I have heard from a reliable source that Bama coach Nick Saban advised the Browns to keep the pair together. He is more of a hybrid TE/FB, which brings important versatility. WR/TE: One of the points of contention the Colt McCoy supporters trot out is that the Browns never gave McCoy any legit receiving weapons to work with and help him. It is not that the Browns have not tried, but there is still a decided lack of play-making talent despite using three recent second round picks at the position. The best of those three is Greg Little, who quickly assumed the mantle of #1 receiver in his rookie year. His 61 receptions for just over 700 yards are decent numbers for a rookie, but far from what a top-notch wideout can produce. Considering the Browns could have had Julio Jones and his 959 yards and eight TDs (Little had just two), the context of his output tells you a great deal about the moribund state of the passing game. Little has decent size and good physical strength, a tough wideout to push off line. He is feisty and confident but lacks elite speed and tends to gear down to change direction. The hope is that Weeden and his stronger arm and better protection will allow him to run deeper routes and improve upon his 11.2 yards per catch average, a reasonable expectation. A full offseason in the system and improvement around him should allow little to hit the 75 catch, 925 yard, 6 TD marks with upside for more if the rest of the offense clicks. But he will need better play from his WR mates to make that happen. The most likely improvement will come from fourth round rookie Travis Benjamin, who really opened eyes in OTAs with his explosion off the line and ability to catch anything near him. He was neither consistent nor prolific at Miami, though he certainly showed great speed and open field shiftiness despite being slight. At worst he will be the primary slot receiver, and his skills are not that divergent from Randall Cobb or Jordan Shipley, two other recent middle-round draftees that have performed well in the NFL. Learning to keep his focus and mastering the offense, both of which were major problems for Benjamin at The U, are legitimate detriments to early success, but maturity and responsibility could make him an unexpected rookie blossom. He will be given every opportunity to do so. Mohammad Massaquoi, one of the other second round picks (from 2009) gets one more chance to prove he can stay healthy and contribute. His last two seasons have both been marred with concussions, though his three seasons have produced fairly consistent results: about 35 catches, 450 yards, 2 TDs with the vast majority of the work done between 8 and 12 yards with little threat after the catch. That is simply not good enough for a No. 2 receiver and he will have to show more very quickly if he wishes to stay in that role. Jordan Norwood lacks the size of Massaquoi, but plays much faster and finished last season impressively. If he can build on that finish, the latter's days could be numbered. Josh Cribbs is still far more important on special teams than the base offense, though he did catch 41 passes and his versatility makes him the only Browns receiver that can dictate defensive adjustments. He could easily supplant Massaquoi on the depth chart. Carlton Mitchell has one last shot to prove he is a NFL talent, something he has yet to demonstrate in his two seasons. He has the size and speed to make it, but thus far has not shown it translates. Undrafted rookie Josh Cooper, a teammate of Weeden at Oklahoma State, looked great in early activities and could wind up seeing game action. *Just before submitting this preview, the Browns used their 2013 second round pick in the supplemental draft on former Baylor wideout Josh Gordon. It is at least two rounds higher than I would have selected him, but Gordon has an intriguing package of size, speed, and strength. It is an extremely raw package, however, and one that has not played since 2010. The Browns look better than that at tight end, where they have three legit weapons. None of them are premier players but all can be solid contributors as receivers. Evan Moore started strong but quickly tailed off. He is a safety valve type of receiver with great length and strong hands, and he has enough awareness and agility to be a good red zone threat. Moore is not noted for being much of a blocker. Ben Watson is the veteran of the group, and his status is clouded by numerous concussions that he suffered in the last couple of years. Watson can line up in line or flexed out and is the best blocker of the group, but again he must demonstrate he is physically right before being counted on for much production. Jordan Cameron remains a work in progress, a converted basketball player with tremendous athletic ability but little football experience. He did show tangible progress late in the year, and a full offseason and a stronger-armed QB could allow him to blossom. Consider him a deep sleeper, though I suspect he will have his breakout campaign in 2013. Veteran Alex Smith is also still around, giving the Browns four legit NFL tight ends. Smith would be the best blocking specialist of the bunch should they elect to keep four tight ends. OL: The starting five are set, with three youngsters filling in around two excellent veterans. Left tackle Joe Thomas is the best in the game, a devastating force as both a run blocker and in pass protection. He will occasionally get beat with a good outside-in move, but Thomas is an absolute bedrock performer. Center Alex Mack is one of the best at his position as well, an exceptional athlete with very good awareness. His quickness in going from snapping to power run blocking is rare, and he plays with a menace the Dawg Pound cherishes. Mack is in the final year of his contract, which typically portends a strong outing to try and lure a fat new contract, something the Browns will certainly take care of in time. The three youngsters are Jason Pinkston at left guard, Shawn Lauvao at right guard, and Mitchell Schwartz at right tackle. Lauvao is entering his third season, Pinkston his second, and Schwartz was the secod round pick this past April. All three projected best as right tackles when coming out of college, but both Lauvao and Pinkston have made the transition with reasonable amounts of success. Lauvao was solid in pass protection but showed little range in run blocking, which is not uncommon for a player converting from tackle; expect him to take a step forward this year, particularly if right tackle is less of an issue than a year ago, when Tony Pashos was overmatched. Lauvao might be one of the strongest players in the league, and when he gets his shoulders squared to the defender, the defender is done. Pinkston steadily improved and was really pushing people around in the run game late in his rookie season. He has suckled at the teat of former stud Lecharles Bentley and with Thomas as well, and it shows, but he must improve his footwork. Schwartz has solid lineage (his brother Geoff plays for the Vikings and is a good Twitter follow) and displayed excellent technique during his days at Cal. He more than held his own against a very strong group of pass rushers during Senior Bowl week, and he exudes a high football IQ. This starting five could be very good, very quickly. O-Neil Cousins figures to be the third tackle once again, a role he held last year reasonably well. He was better than Pashos at RT when given the chance, but is best used in small doses. John Greco also returns as the top inside depth guy, able to play guard or center. Rookie sixth rounder Ryan Miller is the best bet to be the eighth lineman. The alleged plan is to the college tackle at guard, though he is awfully tall and angular to play inside. Local product Dominic Alford received praise for his early work and factors in the depth mix as well. Defense: 2011 Ranks Rushing: 30th Passing: 2nd 3rd Down: 24th Scoring: 5th DL: This unit took a big hit when Phil Taylor went down in the offseason with a torn pec, which will wipe out at least most of his second season after a very promising rookie campaign. Taylor was a dynamic force inside, which helped fellow tackle Athyba Rubin to really blossom into a Pro Bowl caliber player. Now Rubin will handle the inside as the feature performer and have to deal with his higher profile after wreaking havoc for 83 tackles and 5 sacks, both huge numbers for a DT in this scheme. It speaks to his athletic usage of his considerable bulk and strength and his ability to use his hands to keep blockers from getting into his pads cleanly. Without Taylor and his 4 sacks collapsing the pocket from the other gap, look for the numbers of Rubin to decline a little but still be very strong. Filling the shoes of Taylor will be the outcome of a crowded camp battle between a host of youngsters. Scott Paxton has the early edge because he played some last year as a rookie UDFA and looked strong against the Steelers. The Browns also have a pair of rookies that will factor in the rotation in third rounder John Hughes and sixth rounder Billy Winn. Hughes was a surprise in being drafted that high, as he did not do a lot at Cincinnati. He is more of a run-stuffing gap clogger, though he does have a good sense of finding the ball and knows how to wiggle into a seam from time to time. Winn surprisingly fell after entering the 2011 college season with alleged first round potential. He is more of a pass rusher but is a DT/DE tweener that will have to display better toughness and tenacity to make it inside. He does offer potential as a heavy DE in passing downs if Paxson or holdover Brain Schaefering can show some spark inside. Needless to say, they’re going to miss Taylor a lot. Jabaal Sheard impressed as a rookie pass rushing end. His 8.5 sacks got widely overlooked compared to the great Von Miller and Aldon Smith outputs, but Sheard showed plenty of legit pass rushing juice in his first season. His first step is very good but it is his second step that really gets him to the QB; he is excellent at generating burst off his initial step, which allows him to beat the tackle reaction to that first move. Sheard flattens around the edge quickly and closes with real burst. His five forced fumbles were a welcome addition to a defense that lacked a lot of play-makers. Looking to upgrade the other (right) side, the Browns signed former Bengal Frostee Rucker. What really attracted the Browns to Rucker is that he plays the run on the way to rushing the passer, as teams continually gashed the Browns with big gains on draws and screens right at that spot a year ago. He might not get more than 3.5 sacks but should aid the run defense. Rucker has enough bulk to slide inside on passing downs and allow another free agent acquisition, Juqua Parker, to take over at end. Parker is a more accomplished pass rusher with good speed, though he fell off last year in Philly and at 34 years old he could very well be done. At least the Browns only gave him a reasonable one-year deal to see if he has anything left. LB: D-Qwell Jackson finally got healthy and showed the world he is one of the best inside backers in the game. Jackson flew all over the field, racking up a league-leading 158 tackles. That figure includes 116 solo tackles, which on its own would rank Jackson in the top 10 overall in total tackles. He chipped in 3.5 sacks despite not blitzing a great deal, and was also solid in coverage within the first 10 yards. That effort saw Jackson rewarded with a new 5 year, $42M contract. The outside backers do not bring much play-making to the table but are solid veterans. Chris Gocong matched the sack total of Jackson and held his own when asked to cover backs. He is the most natural pass rusher of the group and can play a hybrid DE/LB role, but he can get overwhelmed in run support. Scott Fujita fills the role of consummate professional, though his hold on that title is tenuous thanks to his involvement in the Bountygate scandal during his Saints days. He will sit out the first three games in suspension from that ugliness, and at his age (33) and considering he has missed at least 5 games in each of the last three seasons, expecting another 50 tackle season might be asking too much for Fujita. Kaluka Maiava will likely fill in during the suspension, and there is a dropoff. Maiava is smaller than some safeties. Fourth rounder James Michael Johnson could move outside even though he played in the middle at Nevada. He is bigger and a little quicker laterally than Maiava and impressed in early OTAs with his ability to quickly diagnose and react to the play. Another rookie, Emmanuel Acho, is the only notable other depth at outside backer. Secondary: Joe Haden is emerging as one of the best cover men in the league, taking a nice step forward in his second year. Critics who only read box scores like to point out that he did not pick off any passes, therefore he had a bad season, but that could not be further from the truth. The team would love for him to make more plays on balls in the air, but his positional coverage and instincts are top shelf quality. Haden did get victimized at times from being overaggressive (see the A.J. Green game-winning TD), but he is a legit #1 corner. Haden is also excellent in run support, a smart wrap tackler. Veteran Sheldon Brown helped tutor him last year and returns as the opposite starter. The best days of Brown are behind him, but he still plays with great savvy and passion. He has lost a step, however, and his role could diminish. That is especially true if Buster Skrine steps up in his second year. The small-school speedster looked in over his head at times during his rookie season, but he should be better acclimated to the level of competition this year. He lacks the physicality and enthusiasm of Brown for run support. Those qualities could actually allow Brown to transition to safety if new secondary coach Tim Hauck thinks it will help his unit. The top play-making safety from last year, Mike Adams, left as a free agent after the Browns showed little interest in bringing him back. A lot of that has to do with the development of Eric Haag and the return to health of T.J. Ward, which figures to be the starting tandem. Ward was very good as an in-the-box thumper as a rookie in 2010 but lost half of last season to a foot injury which may or may not be fully healed, depending on with whom you talk. His absence was not notable in coverage but the run defense lost a lot of its teeth with Ward gone, and his physical presence also set a tone for receivers coming across the middle. If he can get back to his rookie form, the overall defense gets a lot better. Haag impressed the coaches with his quick play recognition and range and will be given every chance to win a starting job. Usama Young will be the third safety, even though he is ostensibly competing for a starting job with Haag. Young and barely ordinary corner Dmitri Patterson are the extra DBs when opposing teams use pass-heavy sets. The unit as a whole lacks great speed outside of Skrine, who can absolutely fly. Special Teams: Josh Cribbs remains a special team star, though that star has lost a little luster the past couple of seasons as he is been more integrated into the base offense. Still, there is no better all-around special teams player in the league. He excels on coverage units and remains an above-average punt and kick return man, though he has just one TD return the past two seasons. Kicker Phil Dawson is also quite good, with strong range and good work on kickoffs. The punting spot has been a revolving door since Dave Zastudil got hurt a few years back. Reggie Hodges gets his job back after missing all of last year with a torn Achilles. He was excellent in 2010 but that is a pretty nasty injury for someone who makes a living with his legs. The coverage units outside of Cribbs are also solid. Christian Yount took over at long snapper midway through last season when previous bedrock Ryan Pontbriand suffered an inexplicable slump. Coaching: Pat Shurmur enters his second season with an imperative to win quickly. Losing nine of their last 10 games and scoring more than two touchdowns just twice in that span has made the seat of Shurmur uncomfortably warm. He realized his mistake of not having a full time Offensive Coordinator and hired former Vikings Coach Brad Childress in the role, a move that should boost the offense while allowing Shurmur to manage the team more efficiently. Both men are acolytes of Team President Mike Holmgren, whose tenure could be ending via retirement or wholesale culture change sooner than later. Another former head coach, Dick Jauron, did a strong job with the defense, which transitioned from a 3-man front to a 4-3 scheme and improved. Jauron has been an interim coach in the past and if the team bombs early -- a distinct possibility -- he could get that role again. Breakout player: Buster Skrine. The second-year corner will greatly benefit from a full offseason of work and familiarity with the system. Skrine will prove he can run hip to hip with the fastest receivers and will hold his own while seeing loads of action across from Joe Haden. Forecast: There is part of me that feels bullish about this team. I like Weeden to upgrade the pathetic passing game and Richardson to prove worth trading up to No. 3 overall. The offense will be better, and the defense is strongly underrated. But they are in a division where they will be lucky to win one game against their foes, and with so many young and inexperienced players in so many key roles, it will be difficult to win a lot of games. I do think the Browns will surpass the four wins they accumulated last season, and if the new toys on offense can produce consistently an eight win season is not out of the question. The forecast here is for real progress but an underwhelming 6-10 record, including another winless slog through the AFC North. [email protected] or Twitter @JeffRisdon