2011 Record Point Differential: -214 Turnover Margin: -5 Sack Differential: -16 Offense 2011 Ranks Rushing: 23rd Passing: 30th 3rd Down: 32nd Scoring: 32nd QB: Year Three for Sam Bradford places him at a critical junction in his career. After showing strong promise and looking reasonably worthy of being the #1 overall draft pick in 2010 during his rookie season, last year marked a real setback. Bradford played in just 10 games thanks to injuries, and he was visibly hobbled in several of those outings. Completing just 53% of his throws at a measly 6.1 yards per attempt with 6 TDs and 6 INTs--all numbers of a QB that most teams would desperately try to replace--Bradford often appeared shell-shocked and impatient. Having better protection and receivers (more on those below) will certainly help, but Bradford must demonstrate more of a willingness to stand tall and deliver better throws downfield. The injury issue clouds his potential, as he has now been severely injured in three of his last four seasons. The leadership and physical abilities remain strong, and the new coaching staff has continually reinforced their confidence in Bradford to become the elite quarterback many believe he can be. I have never been in that camp, but I will not deny that Bradford can develop into a strong starter, and this is the time to make it happen. Kellen Clemens comes back as the primary backup a year after being signed off the street and forced into action. He produced basically the same sort of numbers as Bradford, but he lacks Bradford’s arm strength and creativity. Clemens is smart and understands his role, and he can capably fill in for a half here or there. Tom Brandstater will battle big rookie Austin Davis for the #3 role. I’ve always liked Brandstater’s potential and believe that if Bradford once again gets hurt, the Rams would be wise to make him the long-term starter and keep Clemens in the reserve capacity. RB: For years now this has been the Steven Jackson show, and it’s been quite a show. When he’s been healthy, Jackson is a speedy bull running with high knees and bad intentions. He has strung together seven straight 1000-yard seasons, and he remains a very good receiving option out of the backfield. Despite being fairly upright when he runs, Jackson does a great job of turning his shoulders and hips so he almost never gets hit squarely. Even so, he’s got an incredible amount of mileage on his tires. He’s nearly 30 now, sort of the tipping point where backs of his style tend to precipitously decline. The Rams tried to ease his load with various players, most recently Cadillac Williams. But that ride ended after just 87 mostly blah carries. The latest attempt is 2nd round pick Isaiah Pead, a shifty, versatile runner from Cincinnati. Pead is short and not real powerful, but he runs with confidence, pad level, and a savvy, gear-changing elusiveness. He’s an excellent receiver, a valiant pass blocker, and the kind of guy that will be very well-liked by his teammates. The hope is he doesn’t flop like the similarly styled Jerrious Norwood, who has never been healthy enough to live up to his early Atlanta promise and quickly washed out of St. Louis last year. Tiny but speedy 7th round pick Daryl Richardson sits third on the depth chart, while Britt Miller returns as the lead blocking fullback. Miller brings the kind of toughness and attitude that Jeff Fisher loves. He could at least triple his 8 touches from a year ago provided his knees, which have put him on IR in each of the last two years, are healthy. Hybrid TE/FB Ben Guidugli gets the nod if Miller can’t go. WR/TE: The Rams have been woefully inept at the receiving position for the past few seasons. Not only have they not had a 1000-yard receiver since 2007, they’ve had just one 800-yard receiver in that time; no other team has less than three. Injuries, poor draft luck, and largely ineffective coaching and QB play have not helped, but the Rams desperately needed to upgrade the talent level at WR. They took great steps in that direction with an active offseason, bringing in three new players that figure to help a lot. Drafting Brian Quick in the 2nd round and Chris Givens in the 4th provides a youthful infusion of talent. Quick has great size and length, demonstrating strong hands and the ability to shield off defensders. Despite coming from small school Appalachian State, he did not look out of place with the big boys during Senior Bowl week save a couple instances where the velocity of the throw surprised him. His long speed is good but Quick is not real sudden or elusive off the line. The Rams can use his strength and length outside the numbers to stretch the field. Givens is faster and more of a gamebreaking talent, though not as consistent or physical. The Rams took a flier on Steve Smith, the former Giant and Eagle. If he is fully recovered from a devastating knee injury, Smith provides a sure-handed underneath receiver that runs excellent, precise routes and brings some elusiveness after the catch. Also hoping to help is Danny Amendola, the Rams leading receiver in 2010. Amendola is even shiftier in the slot and had a nice mind-meld connection with Bradford, but he missed all of 2011. With last year’s top receiver Brandon Lloyd long gone, there are plenty of balls to go around. Greg Salas was finally starting to show promise before his rookie season was wiped out in Week 9, and he should factor as a possession-type receiver going forward. Lance Kendricks in the primary receiving tight end, coming off his second season where he caught 28 passes. He has the speed to operate in the seam and work flexed out as a sort of supersized receiver, but he must play stronger and keep his concentration. Michael Hoomanawanui brings muscle and a challenge to announcers everywhere as the blocking tight end that catches about 10 balls a year. He blocks like an extra tackle. OL: This unit was absolutely brutal in pass protection last year, and if there is not significant improvement there will be no improvement from Bradford and the new receivers. The two tackles, Rodger Saffold and Jason Smith, were woefully overmatched most weeks before both went down with season-ending injuries. That led to shuffling that revealed then-rookie Kevin Hughes to be a worthy backup and a surprising strength from Harvey Dahl but not much else positive. Saffold was a revelation as a rookie left tackle in 2010 but slumped miserably last season. The torn pec he suffered weightlifting in November was almost a mercy killing for his sophomore year. After being light on his feet and quick with his hands as a rookie, Saffold became a clutching, grabbing, holding machine, seemingly losing confidence in his athletic ability. He’s a bright, thoughtful guy, which means he’ll either figure it out and get back to his old self or have the issues percolate into a Steve Blass-like brew and never be a functional player again. I know that seems harsh, but if a player loses that confidence in himself and his abilities, the end is nigh. Smith has struggled with concussion and confidence issues of his own on the right side. This is his last chance to prove he belongs, as the former #2 overall pick had to take a massive pay cut just to get that chance. The signing of free agent center Scott Wells is a strong step forward. Wells did a solid job as a mobile pivot capable of quickly identifying schemes and making line calls. He’s not real powerful and won’t dominate anyone, but Wells is an upgrade in the middle over former free agent bust Jason Brown. Last year’s free agent line addition, Harvey Dahl, returns as the right guard. Dahl was excellent in pass protection, giving up just 3 sacks and 3 QB hurries despite having chaos around him and playing out of position at times as the right tackle. For someone noted for his run blocking during his Atlanta days, that’s a mighty impressive feat. Expect some regression back but Dahl is definitely not the problem up front. The left guard spot is a total crapshoot, emphasis on the crap. Former practice squad castoff (as bad as it sounds) Bryan Mattison is the projected starter heading into training camp. Underwhelming converted center Tim Barnes and 5th round pick Rokevious Watkins will get cracks at it as well. Watkins has the size at 337 pounds and the mauling attitude lead blocking for a great back (Marcus Lattimore) at South Carolina that should allow him to capture the job sooner than later. But pass protection was his downfall in college in Steve Spurrier’s NFL-style system. The aforementioned Hughes will also factor in, though I gather from team sources that the Rams would prefer to keep him as the #6 lineman thanks to his versatility. Veterans Quinn Ojinnaka and Barry Richardson head up the inferior reserves at tackle, with UDFA Joe Long (brother of Jake) trying to make it ahead of them. There is real trouble in River City if Smith or Saffold get hurt/stink once again. Defense 2011 Ranks Rushing: 31st Passing: 7th 3rd Down: 19th Scoring: 26th DL: In Chris Long and Robert Quinn, the Rams have a pair of ends to build around. Long has become a legit force, everything the Rams envisioned when they took him #2 overall in 2008. He is the increasingly rare breed of defensive end that plays the run well on the way to racking up double digit sacks. His 13 sacks a year ago really jump out considering the Rams were often trailing early and opponents didn’t have to throw a lot. Long sets a strong edge and is very good at forcing the play way outside. If he played on a better team Long would be considered a special player by the general populous. Perhaps with Jeff Fisher’s tutelage and increased exposure it will come, along with a 15-sack, 50 tackle season. Quinn was the Rams 1st round pick in 2011 and looked very much like a greenhorn with highly intriguing potential. He has an excellent first step and flattens around the edge very adeptly. At this point he is still primarily just a pass rusher, still learning to find the ball and get off blocks. But his speed, athleticism, and functional length portend bigger things in his second season. A full offseason with a legit training camp could coax 8-10 sacks and double his 2 PDs and 22 tackles from a year ago. He will start opposite Long now that trusty veteran James Hall has moved on. Letting Hall go is a gamble because there is little proven talent at all behind the starters. William Hayes is a former Fisher plebe from Tennessee and will likely play on running downs in place of Quinn. His production has waned since Fisher’s departure and the hope is Hayes can recapture the 51 tackles, 4 sacks, and 2 forced fumbles of his 2009 campaign. After Hayes, Eugene Sims and Scott Smith fill out the depth chart. Sims saw action in all 16 games last year but did little to stand out. I wish I could say something about Scott Smith, but the truth is he’s completely off my radar. Sometimes honesty is the best policy folks; in other previews you spend good cash for you can find far more extensive breakdowns of the deep depth players on some rosters, and I can guarantee you 90% of it is fluffy bull crap. The inside starting tandem figures to be newcomers Kendall Langford and Michael Brockers. That’s a lot of beef inside, and both figure to be better stuffing the run than getting into the backfield. Langford is a free agent from Miami, where he played as a 3-4 defensive end. He can play a one-gap scheme just fine, immovable with his strong base and fairly active with his hands. The Petersburg VA native (where I taught from 2001-02) has enough quickness to slide outside in a heavy 4-man front or the emerging trend of 5-2 looks. Brockers is the first round pick out of LSU and a very divisive figure amongst the draftnik community. Widely and controversially touted as an athletic freak for his size, Brockers actually was much better at filling gaps and snuffing out the run during his Bayou Bengal days. There is definitely some slipperiness to his game, but expecting more than 3 sacks and perhaps 30 tackles as a rookie is asking for too much. Those numbers would still represent an upgrade over Fred Robbins, a bitter disappointment as a former prized free agent. There is quality depth inside with Trevor Laws and Darell Scott, both of whom have enough versatility to play either tackle spot and get some juice in the backfield. Laws is accustomed to a rotational role from his Philly days, though he has never quite met expectations. LB: James Laurinaitis is a true animal in the middle, one of the best young LBs in the game. He is as reliable a tackler as there is between the hashes, but Laurinaitis is more than just a tackling machine. He can drop in coverage and quickly close in the zone. He can blitz, both to get to the QB (3 sacks) and nail the runner in the backfield. He can make plays on the ball (2 INTs, 7 PDs). The Rams are in great shape there. Outside of Laurinaitis, however, it’s a decidedly mixed bag. Two new starters should flank him, though I’m not sold it will be much of an upgrade. Jo-Lonn Dunbar comes from New Orleans, where he finally got a chance to play a more significant role last year. He has fairly impressive tackle numbers (79, including 55 solo) and is capable in coverage, but he plays at about 220 pounds and offers little pop on his hits. He’s replacing Chris Chamberlain, who had more tackles, more tackles for loss, and more sacks…while making about 1/8th of what Dunbar will this year. Dunbar was ostensibly brought in to help install new Defensive Coordinator Gregg Williams defense from their time together in New Orleans, except Williams is now a pariah suspended indefinitely. Rocky McIntosh comes from Washington, where he was a solid, versatile backer. He can play all three LB spots if needed, and he thumps with his pads and drives with his shoulders. Lateral agility is not his strong suit, but he is one season removed from 110 tackles and Pro Bowl consideration. If he’s fully healthy and finds a defined role in this defense, McIntosh will make a good acquisition. It’s hard to imagine him being worse than the revolving door that included Brady Poppinga, Josh Hull, and a host of journeyman former Ohio State backers in recent years. Keep an eye on speedy UDFA Sammy Brown. Secondary: It can only get better. That has to be the mantra for the Rams secondary after a 2011 where they lost more games to injured reserve than any unit in NFL history. The top three corners all figure to be newcomers, including two rookies. Cortland Finnegan is the marquee addition to the defense, an erstwhile Pro Bowl talent well versed in Jeff Fisher’s style. Finnegan is fast, fiery, and fairly inconsistent. At times he has been a glue-like cover man, but he often lacks discipline and gets overconfident in his own abilities. Finnegan does play bigger than his size and will be an asset against the run. He will also be counted on to mentor rookies Trumaine Johnson and Janoris Jenkins and get them quickly up to speed from playing 2011 at the FCS (what everyone calls I-AA) level. Both players have a great deal of physical potential but serious questions. Jenkins might be the most natural coverage talent to hit the league since Darrelle Revis, but after failing several marijuana tests, multiple arrests, a cadre of children with a cadre of women, and a fairly defiant attitude about it all, to say Jenkins is a major character risk is a massive understatement. Fisher has dealt with problem children before (including Finnegan) but this will be an extreme challenge. An immature contract squabble over managing his money proves Jenkins still doesn’t “get it” and makes success that much more unlikely, but the potential for a lockdown corner is still there. Johnson had some character questions of his own, highly overblown I might add, but the bigger question with him is adjusting to the NFL. He has outstanding size, built like a big safety, and Fisher’s own son was his defensive coach at Montana. Johnson has good straight-line speed and loves to hit, but there is a monstrous gap in talent level of passing game between the Big Sky conference and the NFC West; he has never seen anyone close to the likes of Larry Fitzgerald or even Greg Salas. If he can handle himself outside, that would allow Finnegan to cover the slot and really provide an upgrade. But being this heavily dependent on two iffy rookies is far more likely a recipe for disaster than a gourmet playoff meal. The Rams are in better shape than most people think at safety. Darian Stewart played surprisingly well, showing good range, instincts, and a willingness to mix it up. He had some issues with missed tackles and extending out too far from his base when trying to make the play, but Stewart proved a worthy NFL starter with growth potential. Veteran Quintin Mikell was forced to be a mop some 10 yards down the field, cleaning up missed assignments in front of him. His best days are probably behind him at age 32, but Mikell is smart, durable, and still brings enough to the table to merit starting. Craig Dahl was very good at times as the third safety, particularly in run support. He has limitations in coverage but that’s why he is a good third safety and not a starter. Dahl is also a standout on special teams. There is a whole host of competition for the rest of the secondary spots. Jerome Murphy, Josh Gordy, Kendric Burney, Matt Daniels, Brian Jackson, Jeremy Caldwell and even Bradley Fletcher and his lack of knee cartilage will fight it out in camp. Fletcher and Murphy are the most talented in theory but have to stay healthy. Special Teams: There are new faces at both specialist spots, with rookies Greg Zuerlein and Johnny Hekker taking over as the kicker and punter, respectively. Zuerlein is a sure bet to be the kicker with his monstrous leg; his pre-draft workout is becoming legendary in scouting circles. He’s from Missouri Western, but the small school jump for a kicker is not much of a factor. Zuerlein could be a special one. Hekker is also an undrafted free agent with a knack for booming moon shots, albeit inconsistently. He will have to fend off journeyman Tom Malone, and ST Coordinator John Fassel will not hesitate to seek out veteran free agents if Hekker cannot consistently control his leg. Rookie Isaiah Pead figures to be the primary return man, though if the Rams are comfortable using Danny Amendola in that role he is a more proven talent. Three rookies handling the primary special teams spots carries some risk, and the huge roster turnover means early continuity on coverage units could be problematic. Coaching: Jeff Fisher takes over what has been the most inept franchise in the league for the last four years. He was moderately successful in Tennessee, but he brings a distinct culture and personality to the team. Brian Schottenheimer is the Offensive Coordinator, and he must figure out how to cater to and develop Sam Bradford better than he did with Mark Sanchez in New York. Fisher wanted Gregg Williams to run his defense, but Bountygate ruled that out. Fortunately Dave McGinnis, himself a former head coach, is the assistant and can help Fisher install his brand of hard-hitting pressure. Almost every assistant is new to the program, which means there will be some bouts with unfamiliarity between players and coaches. Breakout player: Greg Zuerlein. Yes, I picked a rookie kicker. This team is going to rely heavily on rookies and newcomers, and that makes winning close games difficult. Zuerlein has the huge leg to hit a 54-yard game winner and pick up the whole team. He’s the safest bet of any rookie on this team, and I like several of them. Forecast: Starting over is never easy, and while I expect better health and a confidence bump from new coach Jeff Fisher, this is not a quick fix; no team that has ever been more than -200 in point differential one season has had more than seven wins the following year. If Bradford improves and his receivers show competence, the offense has potential to score an extra touchdown per game over last year. The defense has some nice pieces in place but a whole lot of questions as well, including who will run the unit with Gregg Williams suspended. I think the Rams will double their win total from two to four, and in the process figure out who is part of the long-term solution and who is not. That will facilitate more changes next summer with the potential for even more win doubling in 2013. [email protected] or Twitter @JeffRisdon