2011 Record Point Differential: +52 Turnover Margin: +8 Sack Differential: +7 Offense 2011 Ranks Rushing: 17th Passing: 8th 3rd Down: 6th Scoring: 7th QB: Matt Ryan enters his fourth season in a bit of a strange spot. Ryan has been consistently very good, capable of leading Atlanta to multiple playoff berths and putting up very strong numbers. He plays with an almost preternatural poise belied by some of the most active and expressive eyes this side of Mike Singletary. Ryan has earned the moniker “Matty Ice” for his numerous clutch throws and fourth quarter comebacks. Even though his sack numbers are middle of the road, he tends to absorb a great deal of big hits as he stands firm in the pocket. Some of that stems from his lack of mobility, but his bravery and command send a clear message of leadership and toughness that permeates the offense. But he has yet to really prove he is a quarterback that can take this, or any, team to the next level and win multiple playoff games in the same season. At this point, he really needs to show he can win even one, something he has failed to do in pretty ugly fashion in his three playoff trips. For whatever reason, when the playoffs start Matty Ice melts into a largely incompetent bundle of panic and indecisiveness. The first two trips his supporters could rightly claim he didn’t have the weaponry to compete, but that excuse is no longer applicable. Further, Ryan had all of his 100+ QB rating games against teams that finished well out of playoff contention, while his games against playoff teams produced his worst yards per attempt, completion percentages, and QB ratings by a fair margin. If Ryan can’t get this team over the hump right now, his status will fall to that of a good QB that just wasn’t quite good enough, a la Bobby Hebert or Steve Bartkowski. Falcons fans know this story all too well, and the pressure is squarely on Ryan to take his game to the next level in 2012. Veteran Chris Redman returns as the backup, a gig he’s held for years now. He knows the personnel and is smart enough to understand any changes to the system under new OC Dirk Koetter. Redman acquitted himself fairly well in limited duty when Ryan was hurt, and the team has confidence in his ability to do so should the situation arise again. John Parker Wilson will have to hold off rookie Dominique Davis for the right to stand on the sidelines wearing a cap and holding a clipboard. Wilson is the better passer, Davis the more intriguing athlete. RB: Michael Turner keeps burning off highly impressive seasons, churning out another 1300+ yard season for the third time in four years. It was the fourth straight season of double-digit touchdowns as well. Few contemporary runners can match his between-the-tackles prowess, and he still has his burst out of the pack that brought about his nickname (see his 81-yard scamper). But there are signs that the burner is running out of gas at age 30, or at least that the Falcons are preparing for that day. Jacquizz Rodgers has been heavily talked up by team officials and coaches with the intent to get him more touches in his second season. It’s an interesting declaration considering the very limited success Rodgers had as a rookie, where he rushed for just over 200 yards at under 4 yards per clip. Rodgers figures to make more of his mark as a receiver, where Turner has never been a competent threat. His diminutive stature and lateral quickness make him real trouble for defenses in space. Look for more screens, pitches, and misdirection runs with Rodgers in the game and for his touches to at least triple to about 12 per game. Jason Snelling will continue to get a handful of opportunities each week as well, including some in a hybrid RB/FB role that he once sought to outgrow but embraced last year. Snelling is built like Turner, not real tall but very thick in the lower body. He also runs like a slower Turner but is a much better receiver and the team loves his blitz pickup ability. Rookie Bradie Ewing takes over as the fullback. Like Snelling, Ewing fashions himself as a hybrid FB/RB after a senior season at Wisconsin where he looked solid running the ball a little. Antone Smith keeps a roster spot with his strong special teams play but is unlikely to get any carries. WR/TE: GM Tom Dimitroff paid a king’s ransom to move up and select Julio Jones with the #6 overall pick in the 2011 draft, and Jones did not disappoint. As the primary deep threat, Jones hauled in 54 receptions for just under 1000 yards and notched an impressive 17.8 yards per reception. The Falcons made the move in order to stretch the field and get more dynamic and explosive on offense, and Jones absolutely fit the bill. Jones’ presence allowed Matt Ryan to raise his yards per attempt by nearly a full yard. He and Roddy White are a very formidable and dangerous 1-2 punch at wide receiver. White is in the peak of his prime and is one of the most prolific targets in the game. He is the only player in the league to pull in at least 100 catches each of the past two seasons. White is the master of the midrange route, using his lithe length and excellent change of speed movement to routinely shake coverage. 77 of his 100 catches produced first downs, yet he had only 16 catches that went 25 yards or more. That’s a testament to his ability to get open and make the tough catch, and with Jones providing the deep threat to create more room, there is little reason to believe White won’t put up at least 95 catches for 1250 yards and 8-10 TDs once again. His consistency is a marvel. Both outside guys are also very strong blockers, emphasis on the strong. Finding a third wide receiver has been a perennial struggle for the Falcons. It’s not that they haven’t had some talented options, but for whatever reason Atlanta has just not received the kind of production from the slot they want. Harry Douglas had his best season in 2011, but that “breakout” equated to just 39 receptions for under 500 yards and just one touchdown. Douglas is always fighting a strained this or pulled that, though to his credit he has not missed a game in three years and continues to fly across the middle without regard for his safety. Atlanta feels strongly enough about Douglas that they signed him to a 4-year deal. With Eric Weems and his 11 receptions departing for the Bears, the #4 and #5 wideout positions are completely wide open in camp. Kerry Meier is the most notable, though not one of the combatants has ever caught a pass in the NFL. As infrequently as the Falcons use 4+ wideouts, it’s really not much of an issue unless one of the top three (really top two) gets injured. There is a good chance an undrafted rookie free agent, perhaps speedy Cody Pearcy, wins a job here. One of the reasons the Falcons don’t use more than 3 wideouts very often is the presence of future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez. Gonzo is still going strong well into his 30s, remaining passionate and effective working the seams. He has been remarkably consistent in his three seasons in Atlanta, catching between 70-83 balls for right around 10 yards per catch and 6-7 touchdowns each year. Gonzalez is still functional as a blocker and gives strong effort, though he’s not going to blow anyone off the line anymore. The #2 tight end figures to once again be Michael Palmer, who does little as a receiver but proved himself adept as an in-line blocker. OL: The 2011 version had an interesting season. After nearly getting Ryan killed (13 sacks and 19 QB hits in the first three games) while mixing in a new starter early, the line progressed in pass protection…at the expense of run blocking. Clearly this line needed more help, and the Falcons used their first two draft picks to bring in some reinforcements while also bringing in former Fresno State head coach Pat Hill as the new OL coach. The changes are a good start, but this is far from a finished product yet. The left tackle position is problematic, with Sam Baker often overwhelmed on the left side. Baker was overdrafted in the first round in 2008, though a seemingly chronic back issue hasn’t helped him. He just doesn’t have the range or functional power to handle better pass rushers. The right side is in better shape. Clabo is one of the most physical players in the league and is the first guy from the Falcons you would pick as a teammate in a strip club brawl, but he can struggle to keep his pads low and sometimes seems more interested in turning his individual battle into a street fight rather than blending in with his linemates. There is talk of moving Clabo to the left side, either moving Baker inside or to the bench. To be fair to Clabo, he really turned it up a notch after getting beat for a bad sack in the first Tampa game, and he is one of the better right tackles in the league. Will Svitek outplayed Baker last year on the left side, more an indictment of Baker than anything the plucky but unpolished Svitek can do. Svitek brings a toughness to the left side that Baker cannot match. Second round pick (their first pick) Peter Konz will start somewhere right away. Even though he played center at Wisconsin, he has the size and aggression to represent a big upgrade at right guard over Joe Hawley. With venerable vet Todd McClure still in the picture at center for at least one more year, Konz figures to make a bigger impact at guard before eventually succeeding McClure in the middle. Hawley wasn’t as bad as some Falcons fans make him out to be, but ideally he’s a top inside reserve and the Konz move puts him there comfortably. Left guard Justin Blalock was part of the terrible start but played progressively better once he started focusing more on just his job than trying to help Baker to his left so much. Garrett Reynolds will have to fight to keep his spot as the top swing tackle after playing poorly when given ample opportunity last year. Third round pick Lamar Holmes has fire hoses for arms and gives 100% effort to the whistle every snap, though he needs a lot of work on lateral movement and keeping his butt down. Mike Johnson is likely on his last chance to prove he merited a 3rd round pick in 2010, something he has failed to show thus far. Former Jaguar Vince Manuwai came along with his old offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter and will be a camp factor at one of the guard spots. Defense 2011 Ranks Rushing: 7th Passing: 20th 3rd Down: 30th Scoring: 18th DL: There is talent here but the talent needs to more consistently play to its potential for the Falcons defense to improve. The primary culprit at first glance appears to be defensive end Ray Edwards, a bitter disappointment as a free agent signee. No question, Edwards did not play well and deserves the enmity. But expectations were way too high and Edwards did not get the anticipated help from the inside guys, something that fostered much of his production in his Minnesota days. Edwards did get one thing he had in Minnesota, a premium pass rusher on the other side in John Abraham. The 34-year old only plays about half of what he used to, but he still got 9.5 sacks and forced four fumbles. At this point Abraham is strictly a pass rushing specialist, but he still gets the job done in that limited duty. The Falcons understand this, having tried to bring in more help and eventual replacements. That gives them recognizable depth in Lawrence Sidbury, Kroy Biermann, and rookie 5th rounder Jonathan Massaquoi. Biermann has been moderately successful, showing acumen against the run and great hustle. Alas, he is not an accomplished pass rusher. He has 10.5 sacks the last three seasons, almost all of them of the “outworking his man” style and not the product of great moves. Sidbury looked very good in the Minnesota game last year but was invisible for the rest of the season, and it’s telling that the Vikings drafted a premier left tackle in part because of Sidbury’s outburst. Massaquoi brings more fluid athleticism and presents the ability to stand up and rush in a hybrid sort of role, though he lacks strength and doesn’t have a great first step. The team must get much more out of Edwards & Co., particularly on 3rd down. Back to those inside guys. Jonathan Babineaux has been effective in spurts but really struggled with a knee injury last year that robbed him of his explosion, his best asset. If new Defensive Coordinator Mike Nolan wants to use more hybrid 4-3/3-4 looks, Babineaux is the most natural 5-technique on the team. Corey Peters, the team’s 3rd round pick in 2010, has yet to distinguish himself as anything other than a functional rotation player capable of 3-4 sacks and 35-40 tackles at his best. Those are higher numbers than he has achieved thus far. Peters has vastly outplayed 2009 1st rounder Peria Jerry, who has just 20 tackles and two sacks in his three years, two of which he’s been healthy. Jerry lacks the quickness to knife thru gaps and the base strength to be an effective run stopper. Vance Walker has shown more in the same time frame and plays like he wants it more, and the team is bullish on 7th rounder Travain Robertson, another high-effort tactician. If Jerry doesn’t really show something this summer, he risks being a high-profile spot on the waiver wire. LB: Sean Weatherspoon took a giant leap forward in his second season, and the Falcons are confident he can continue that improvement and become an elite performer. Confidence is not something that Weatherspoon lacks, but this defense seems to respond to his outward and verbose bravado. He has solid size and very good range, and his body reacted quicker to what his eyes saw in 2011, hence his major step forward. He is a 3-down linebacker that covers pretty well in the short area and has some ability to blitz, though he doesn’t always take the greatest angles and needs to wrap and finish more thoroughly. The team is rolling the dice that Weatherspoon can handle the increased responsibility, as they let starting middle backer Curtis Lofton walk, to rival New Orleans of all places. Lofton was a tackling machine (167 last year) but he was stiff in coverage and didn’t force turnovers or make as many plays north-and-south as the team would have liked. Akeem Dent will inherit the inside role, and the Falcons are optimistic their third round pick from last year can prove he belongs as an NFL starter. I am not so bullish, but he has potential. If he falters, former Pro Bowler Lofa Tatupu is hoping to resurrect his lost career after years of injuries forced him out of Seattle. SAM backer Stephen Nicholas is a barely serviceable starter that needs to do more. Like Dent, the athletic potential is there for improvement but Nicholas has yet to prove he can make impact plays in his five Falcons seasons. Other than the loser of the Dent/Tatupu battle in the middle, depth is thin and unproven. Spencer Adkins has played sparingly outside of special teams in his three seasons, while undersized Robert James has yet to be active for a game in the same time span. There are several UDFAs in camp and at least one should stick on the roster. My money is on thick thumper Rico Council out of Middle Tennessee. Of course my writing that probably means he’ll be cut by the time you read this… Secondary: The biggest addition to the team is the acquisition of former Eagles CB Asante Samuel, who brings playmaking panache and playoff experience as well as a hefty contract and a reputation for being one of the worst tacklers since Deion Sanders. In pairing Samuel with Brent Grimes, the Falcons boast a pair of dangerous, athletic corners that can make throwing the ball treacherous even though both are prone to egregious gaffes in coverage from time to time. Grimes earned the franchise tag thanks to his aggressive, assertive and often acrobatic play, though he is not exactly thrilled about playing under the tag and wants a long term deal. The danger with Samuel is that the experiment will wind up like the Dunta Robinson experience. Robinson came from Houston as a big-ticket free agent with great expectations that have gone largely unfulfilled. Robinson has been unable to adjust to the more passive, read-and-react zone deployed by the Falcons. But there is legit hope he can recoup some of his lost grace, as he wll move inside and play predominately man-on coverage in new DC Mike Nolan’s more aggressive secondary scheme. If Robinson can accept being third banana, Samuel sets a positive tone in a new environ, and Grimes puts his unhappiness in check and plays hard for a fat new contract, this troika can be very good. Lots of “ifs” there, however. William Moore and Thom DeCoud return as the safeties, and they are a pretty solid pairing. Moore has flashed very strong potential when he’s been healthy, but staying on the field for full games at a time has been a struggle at times. He can really lay the lumber as a hitter. DeCoud is undersized and will miss tackles due to a lack of strength, but he is strong in coverage and understands his role in the defense very well. They had issues on 3rd down however, particularly when the opponents used play action or threw to the tight end. DeCoud is prone to reacting late and not being able to recover quick enough when he doesn’t pick up on the read immediately. Dominique Franks has the inside track for the dime back role. He showed some ballhawking ability last year with 2 INTs and 5 PDs in limited duty and has nice length for the position. He’s the closest thing the team has to a “heavy nickel” back, an en vogue trend in the NFL. Christopher Owens has played his way in and out of favor in his three seasons, but he figures to be the big loser in the Samuel deal. He might be worth more to some other team and could be dealt, particularly if the Falcons take a real shine to a youngster like Robert McClain or Darrin Walls. There was no depth at all behind the two starters at safety, where 2010 6th round pick Shann Schillinger, a career special teamer, and 2012 6th rounder Charles Mitchell were the next men up. That changed when the Falcons signed former Titan and Steeler Chris Hope in late June, hoping he still has some gas left in the tank. Special Teams: The kicking Matts, placekicker Matt Bryant and punter Matt Bosher, are both coming off very good seasons. Bryant’s range tops out at 51 yards but he is absolute money inside that range. Bosher came on strong late in his rookie season after struggling badly before the bye week in late October. His 27-4 ratio of punts inside the 20 to touchbacks is strong. The team will sorely miss Eric Weems, who was the primary return man and also the best tackler on the coverage units. Dominique Franks was the only other player to attempt a return last year, and that was one attempt. Douglas also will get a crack at the return jobs. Coaching: Mike Smith has a strong record of sustained success in his four seasons, but the inability to even be competitive in playoff games hangs heavy over him. Feeling the pressure, he replaced both coordinators and brought in veterans Dirk Koetter and Mike Nolan to run his offense and defense, respectively. They each bring new wrinkles that could spark progress but carry some risk of upsetting the apple cart too dramatically. Nolan’s primary charge is to improve the dismal performance on 3rd down. Breakout player: Jacquizz Rodgers. I’m admittedly not his biggest fan, but he is going to benefit from Turner’s decline and get the bulk of the rushing opportunities on third down. Expect at least 450 yards rushing, 400 yards receiving, and a handful of touchdowns. Forecast: The schedule is in Atlanta’s favor. They play just one 2011 playoff team (Denver) before November and have just two road games (New Orleans and Detroit) against teams coming off winning records. That’s good because the NFC South is arguably the best division in football. I like that the team has cohesion amongst the key parts augmented by smart additions like Samuel and Tatupu, veterans hungry to win and prove themselves all over again. The Falcons should fly to another double digit win total in the regular season; my forecast is 11-5 and the NFC South title. But for this season to be a success they need at least one win in January. That will require improvement from Ryan and from the lines, and I’m not sold that will happen.