Most of the sports books have now released their polished season win total over/under values for the upcoming college football season. For the savvy gambler, these are long-term investments where good knowledge and savvy prognostication can really pay off. Many times the lines are set quite astutely, which makes finding the edge difficult but not impossible. Here are some options where I believe money can be made.

Oklahoma--8.5 wins

If you are a believer in Blake “The Belldozer” Bell as the fulltime quarterback, the over bet here is mighty attractive. Bell vultured red zone and short yardage situations from Landry Jones, so he’s accustomed to performing in pressure situations. My Sooner faithful tell me he’s a better passer than credited and the offensive line looks very good. Their defense lost some key personnel, but there is still talent on that side of the ball in stud CB Aaron Colvin. I think the loaded offense, with several starters who will be 2014 NFL draft picks, has enough to outscore enough opponents to get to nine or perhaps even 10 wins. The Sooners caught a break when Notre Dame QB Everett Golson was suspended, making their (theoretically) toughest road trip a lot more winnable. The only other road dates are to doormat Kansas, a solid Kansas State team (+/-8.5, seems high to me) that figures to be rebuilding a bit after heavy graduation losses, Baylor, and the annual rivalry with Oklahoma State. Oklahoma gets bye weeks before the Notre Dame and Oklahoma State trips as well, which means they’ll be rested and well-prepared for combat. They only need to win one of those road contests to cover the win line, as there is nobody on their home schedule that should (should!) beat them.

Florida State--10 wins

This one screams at you to bet the under. The Seminoles lost five starters in the first 40 draft picks last April, along with four other players that should make NFL rosters as rookies. Chief among those are QB EJ Manuel and CB Xavier Rhodes. Linebacker Christian Jones, easily the most talented player on the defense, will need nametags on the helmets of his teammates for a long time as the Noles return almost nothing else from a potent defense. Having James Wilder Jr. will make breaking in a new QB easier, but the schedule is ominous: at Clemson, at Florida, plus a sneaky dangerous opener at Pittsburgh (+/- 5.5 and I lean hard at the over). Given their propensity for one inexplicable loss every season (NC State last year, UVA in ’11), it’s hard to see the Seminoles cracking double digits without some serious luck. It’s worth noting that the money line on the under ranges from -150 to -180 depending on the book you choose, which means bettors can shop for value on this one. 

Michigan--8.5 wins

The Wolverines are almost guaranteed to start 5-0 and no worse than 6-1 with five non-threatening games and a home date with Notre Dame (see Oklahoma’s explanation) and a road date at Penn State. The question will be how much confidence and momentum they will build from that to carry them in the tougher back end of the schedule. Given sleeper Heisman candidate QB Devin Gardner’s progression and featuring an excellent offensive line, I think the Wolverines can win three of the final six against Indiana, at Michigan State (+/- 8.5, so no favoritism in the state), Nebraska, at Northwestern (+/- 9.5 and a favorable schedule means the over is tangible), at Iowa, and hosting rival Ohio State (+/- 11.5, hit the under or else you’re betting on a repeat perfect season) in a game that could very well decide a berth in the B1G title game. Interestingly, both the over and under pay lines are the same at -120. That’s an indication that the books don’t want you to lay any action on the Wolverines. Take the over but not too heavy. 

Oregon--10.5 wins

It all boils down to this: try finding more than one team on this schedule that can possibly hang with arguably the most talented team in the country. Even with a new head coach and several departures to the NFL, the Ducks remain loaded. The frenetic pacing and speed-laden athleticism on offense, led by Marcus Marioti and DeAnthony Thomas, is going to finish at or near the top of the scoring charts. The defense has future NFL talent at all three levels. Did I mention that they somehow don’t have to play USC (+/- 10.5 wins, an easy under bet) or Arizona State (+/- 9.5, I like the over)? They do actually make an appearance in the Eastern Time Zone for the first time in 4 years, but it’s a trip to Charlottesville to play downtrodden Virginia (+/- 4.5, not going to touch the Hoos). The only realistic chances for losses are Stanford on the road and home against rival Oregon State, with outliers UCLA and Arizona having a slight chance at the fluke upset. I think they lose one…and only one. The money line is -190, which means you have to bet $190 to win $100. That’s not a great value but it seems like a pretty sure bet nonetheless. 

TCU--9.5 wins

I’ve gone thru the Horned Frogs schedule several times and the only way they can possibly make 10 wins is if Casey Pachall returns from a drug-induced hiatus and becomes a viable Heisman candidate and they catch more than two good teams on the schedule (at Oklahoma, at OK State, at Texas Tech, Baylor, LSU, at Kansas State) having an unusually bad day. They have the potential for a QB controversy and will also miss stud DE Devonte Fields for at least the first two games. I like the Frogs, I really do. But it’s awful hard to find 10 wins to bet the over. The money line agrees; the range on the under goes from -210 to -280, with that latter number being the biggest number on the entire board. Clearly the books are not confident in that number. If you’re brave or a Gary Patterson sycophant, betting the over pays +190. Good luck with that. You won’t earn much betting the under but it’s the closest thing to free money you can find in Vegas this college football season. 

North Carolina State--6.5 wins

The Wolfpack are amidst a cluster of ACC teams that have over/under lines between 4.5 and 6.5 games. They lost starting QB Mike Glennon to the NFL, but just as critical is that they lost three starting offensive linemen. They lost almost the entire back seven on defense, including both safeties and top corner David Amerson. They have a new coach, a good one in Dave Doeren form Northern Illinois but a new one nonetheless. If all the new pieces gel quickly the Wolfpack could post 7 or perhaps even 8 wins, but the same could be said for foes like Maryland (+/- 6.5), Wake Forest (+/- 5.5), Duke (also 5.5) and Syracuse (4.5). It’s a very legit possibility that NC State is not as good as nonconference, non-BCS foes Louisiana Tech and East Carolina. This is not a confident pick, but if you like to truly gamble a little the +155 money line on the under is attractive.

UMass--1.5 wins

The newest member of the MAC also sports the lowest over/under total on the board (with Idaho). As a MAC aficionado, I can tell you there are some truly lousy football teams in that conference. Akron (+/- 2.5), Eastern Michigan (+/- 2.5 and take the under), Miami (4.5 wins), and a rebuilding Western Michigan (+/- 5.5 and I like the under) will all struggle to stay within two touchdowns of any BCS program. How bad is UMass? I don’t really know enough about the Minutemen roster to give a fair critique, but last year they went 1-11 in their first year as a FBS member, beating only an Akron team that did not win a game against a FBS program. I’ll give them one win (perhaps Akron again) but even the FCS team on the schedule is no slouch in Maine, a team that beat UMass in four of their last five meetings. Another 1-11 finish shouldn’t surprise anyone. A -195 to -215 money line confirms it; bet the under.