2012 Record: 6-10

Point Differential:    -141  

Turnover Margin:   -4       

Sack Differential: even 

Offense

2012 Ranks

Rushing YPC: 10th  

Passing: 25th           

3rd Down: 14th         

Scoring: 23rd 

QB: The Titans are heavily reliant upon Jake Locker to make a giant leap forward in his third season. If you’re familiar at all with my work, you know I heartily scoff at that prospect. I’ll keep it simple on Locker: I love pretty much everything about him except the most important part of his job, which is throwing the football. He simply lacks the ability to consistently and accurately throw a catchable ball to a moving target. The scary part, and why I’m pessimistic about much room for improvement, is that Locker’s fundamentals are not the problem. It’s a maddening, baffling issue. Locker is a charismatic leader with genuine presence. He’s intelligent and understands how to read a defense. His arm strength is above average and he’s athletic enough to be a viable running threat if the play breaks down.

Last season was Locker’s second in the NFL but the first time he was the unquestioned starter. He completed 56.4 percent of his passes, which bests just three other regular starters. For the second year in a row he battled injuries that caused him to miss a chunk of the season. In order to help Locker, the Titans have extensively built up the supporting cast, providing him with better protection and a barrage of receiving options that most other QBs would envy. Matt Hasselbeck is no longer there after two years of invaluable mentoring but also lingering as a potential replacement. In short, all the excuses for Locker are gone. If he cannot complete more than 59.5 percent of his passes, which would have placed him 20th in the NFL last year, or significantly improve on the 10 TD/11 INT ratio, the Locker experiment is going to end in Tennessee. It’s all on Jake himself, and he appears to embrace the challenge. He knows he needs to get better, but as stated earlier I’m just not sure it’s possible. I do expect more TDs and a positive TD/INT ratio, but because the revamped offense will ask him to take more shots down the field the accuracy issue isn’t likely to get any better. It might even regress to the 51 percent he put up in his rookie season.

Replacing Hasselbeck as the backup is deposed Bills starter Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was released very early into a ridiculous contract extension when it became clear his own INT and accuracy issues were never going to go away. What is ironic is that those numbers (60.4 percent accuracy, 24 TD/16 INT) are pretty much the benchmarks that Locker needs to hit to prove successful, yet those very figures got Fitzpatrick run out of Buffalo. Fitzpatrick lacks poise and tends to have blind spots form the pocket, though he’s smart and has some ability to create on the move. Rusty Smith, who authored one of the worst games in NFL history in his lone career start, somehow sticks for a fourth season as the clipboard holder.

RB: Where have you gone, CJ2K? 2009 seems so long ago, but the reality is that Johnson is just 3 seasons removed from one of the most prolific performances by a running back in NFL history. After two years of fairly steep decline, Johnson bounced back some in 2012. His yards per carry ratcheted back up to 4.5 after falling from well over 5 to a measly 4. Of course that figure is inflated by three runs of 80+ yards, and there is the rub. Johnson has become an all or nothing proposition as a runner. His blazing speed in the open field remains just as lethal as when he broke the Combine record for the 40 yard dash. The problem is that he tries to get to that open field on every run, and that makes him much more prone to getting nailed for losses. It’s counterintuitive but proven true that runners need to learn when to live for another day on a run instead of trying to make the impossible happen. Johnson has never learned this. It doesn’t help that he gets very little yardage after contact. But sometimes the team needs a runner to just burrow forward and take the three yard gain instead of trying to beat five defenders to the edge on a busted block and wind up losing a yard. At least Johnson remains a strong receiving threat from the backfield, a reflection on his days as a wideout at East Carolina. 

The Titans made a concerted effort to upgrade the position behind Johnson. They signed Shonn Greene from the Jets to provide more oomph between the tackles. Greene was a disappointment in New York but should fare better in Tennessee for a couple of reasons. First, he’s not going to be asked to be the bellcow, a role he just isn’t fit to handle. Second, Greene is a runner who is a product of his blocking, and the blocking here (see the OL section) has a chance to be awesome. Greene does a good job maximizing what he’s given on a play, a nice contrast to Johnson. He will likely earn more opportunities than the man he replaces, Javon Ringer, who remains unsigned. Tennessee also added Jalen Parmele from division rival Jacksonville as the third RB. He replaces disappointing Jamie Harper. Don’t look for Parmele to get more than a handful of carries, but he brings more value to the Titans than Harper because of his experience and proficiency on special teams. Fullback Quinn Johnson re-upped for another tour of duty as a lead blocker who almost certainly will not touch the football.

WR/TE: Kenny Britt, Kendall Wright, Nate Washington and Damian Williams all return but will be joined by dynamic rookie 2nd rounder Justin Hunter to form one of the deepest receiving corps in the entire league. It’s also a diverse, well-conceived blend of complementary skills that should present Locker with multiple options.

Britt is one of the most physically gifted receivers in the entire league. Few can match his blend of downfield speed, quick feet, strength, and burst off the line. Yet all that potential has yet to fully blossom into a great wideout. Between off field issues, maturity issues, and a rather alarming inability to adjust to poorly thrown balls, Britt has never topped 45 receptions in any of his four seasons. He’s never started more than last year’s 11 games, and has played 16 games in just his rookie campaign. Last season he looked slow and deliberate as he recovered from a torn ACL that cut his 2011 season short. It showed in his average yards per catch of just 13.1, over three yards lower than any prior season. Observers tell me Britt looked great this spring. We’ll see how that translates to the field this fall, but he has powerful incentive to put it all together; 2013 is a contract year for Britt and he will demand a pay commensurate with far more accomplished players, a subject the Titans know well from their dealings with Jared Cook (more on that in a bit). 

Britt brings a bigger downfield dynamic and higher potential ceiling, but Kendall Wright is a much safer bet to be the most productive wideout on the team. Wright was the team’s 1st round pick in 2012, coming out of Baylor as Robert Griffin III's top deep threat. His blazing sideline speed and ability to track the ball over his shoulder makes him a scary downfield threat, but the Titans didn’t unleash him in that manner very much. Wright caught just three passes longer than 20 yards. Instead they used him as a quick-hit option, with more than half his targets coming on throws that traveled less than five yards from the line of scrimmage. Wright is not real quick laterally and lacks strength, but he showed some ability to create after the catch. Look for Wright to get more of a chance to show off his downfield speed as young Offensive Coordinator Dowell Loggains gets a full offseason to craft his own offense. He led the team with 64 receptions as a rookie, but netted under 10 yards per reception. Look for at least 70 receptions and 11.5 yards per catch in year two. 

Washington grumbled about departing Tennessee early in the offseason, but for now he remains in the fold. Washington was unquestionably more comfortable and productive with Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback instead of Locker; 20 of his 46 receptions, his sole 100 yard outing, and three of his four TDs came with Hasselbeck under center. Considering Locker took over 60 percent of the snaps, that’s not a healthy ratio. Locker and Washington appear to have very little chemistry, though the veteran wideout has tried to build a bridge by comparing Locker to his former QB in Pittsburgh, Ben Roethlisberger. That shows the sort of leadership and team spirit the Titans sorely need. The cynics contend Washington was more about angling to get more catches for himself than propping up his quarterback. I’m not that cynical but I also won’t say the thought hadn’t crossed my mind. Washington has led the team in receiving yardage each of the last two seasons.

Williams is the prototypical generic receiver. He’s average sized, average playing speed, and doesn’t offer much after the catch. Williams has reliable hands and runs good routes. Unsatisfied with the relative lack of playmaking and tantalized by the ability to use more four WR sets with more sizzle, the Titans grabbed Justin Hunter in the second round of the draft. Like Britt, Hunter has a great deal of athletic talent. He is very long at 6’4”, fast, and has great leaping ability. As a Tennessee Volunteer, Hunter made some plays that few wideouts can. Alas, he has a real problem with the most basic principle of playing wideout: catching the football. I was not a Hunter fan as a draft evaluator, and I really don’t like the concept of Hunter learning on the fly with an erratic QB like Locker and the potential negative influence of Britt. Yet I won’t deny that Hunter brings a dynamic that defenses will have to account for, and his potential is probably worth the risk for a team that desperately needs an immediate X factor. For some inexplicable reason the team also signed former Texan Kevin Walter, a less explosive version of Damian Williams. If all things are equal, he won’t make the team because special teams stalwart Marc Mariani will earn a roster spot as a receiver too. There is a school of thought that Washington’s rather hefty contract makes him expendable. If so, GM Ruston Webster should find some trade suitors. It’s a camp development worth watching. 

One important side note to the WRs is the addition of Shawn Jefferson as the positional coach. Jefferson was well-respected for his work in Detroit and knows how to work with different types of receivers. His hiring increases the chances of this unit being a very good one and also makes me more optimistic about the fates of Hunter and Britt.

As I alluded to above, the team tired of tight end Jared Cook never fulfilling his high potential and let the Rams overpay for his underperformance for the next few years. Instead they spent half of what the Rams pay Cook and brought in former 49er Delanie Walker. The import is a more versatile weapon, able to line up in the backfield, tight to the formation, flexed out, or even lined up wide. Walker’s biggest issue is ball security, as his numerous drops caused his confidence to wane. In San Francisco he was the clear 2nd tight end, but here Walker is the top dog. He must be more reliable in catching the ball while handling the increased workload. Walker is talented and his superior blocking will certainly help the team, but don’t expect Cook’s 44 receptions. Fortunately, the Titans do have potential for Craig Stevens and Taylor Thompson to effectively pick up the slack. Thompson in particular possesses intriguing potential as he enters his second season. The 2012 5th round pick is converting form defensive end at SMU and is still learning the nuances of the position. He has excellent size and athletic ability, and his snap counts and responsibilities within the offense increased as his rookie year went on. I know one daily Titans observer believes Thompson is going to make a big splash in the NFL sooner than later. I doubt it comes in 2013, but he could easily improve to 25 receptions and more red zone opportunities. 

OL: Just by looking at the roster, you can see the heavy influence of Mike Munchak and his history as one of the best offensive linemen of the Super Bowl era. The Titans spent heavily to overhaul the guard positions, signing top free agent Andy Levitre and using their first round pick on war daddy Chance Warmack. Levitre comes over from Buffalo, where he was the best guard in the league in pass protection according to both Pro Football Focus and Pro Football Weekly (R.I.P.). He will man the left guard spot previously held by Steve Hutchinson, a perennial Pro Bowler that simply ran out of gas last season. Hutch got by on savvy, hustle, and near-flawless technique; Levitre has those same attributes in a much younger package, though he isn’t close to the puller or open field missile that Hutch was in his Minnesota prime.

Warmack is one of the most celebrated guard prospects to hit the NFL in a long time. At Alabama he stood above a strong collection of line talent, and he has that potential in Nashville as well. I’m not sure I’ve ever scouted a more devastating run blocker. Warmack has tremendous base strength paired with excellent upper body bulk and power. Once he gets two hands on a target, the target is eliminated from the play, period. While he doesn’t possess great range and he can’t easily stop his momentum to hit agile defenders out in the open, Warmack is a can’t-miss draft pick. He absolutely will be a significant upgrade over the prior RG combo of Deuce Lutui and Leroy Harris, neither of whom are back with the Titans. 

The guards join one of the better tackle tandems in the league in Michael Roos and David Stewart. 2013 marks their 7th year as the bookend tackles in Tennessee, an amazing display of cohesion. Roos is a marvel of durability and consistency at left tackle. The Estonian native uses his length incredibly well but what makes him special is his powerful punch. No tackle in the league can match his initial arm extension. He delivers a jolting blow that commands respect, but he also has enough athleticism to follow it up. Tenacious and tough, Roos has been one of the most overlooked performers in the NFL for most of his career. Jake Locker seldom has to worry about his blindside. Stewart mans the right side and is no slouch himself. At 6’6” and 315 pounds he’s built more like a left tackle, and he’s a better pass protector than run blocker at this point in his career. His run blocking stalled out last year, unable to consistently create an edge. Like Roos, he uses his power and length quite adeptly, though Stewart doesn’t have the feet or range. He’s excellent in tandem blocks and can drop on a dime for an effective cut block on quick-hit throws to his side. Stewart is coming off a broken leg that ended his 2012 campaign early, so his movement ability bears watching. Should either get hurt, veteran backup Mike Otto has fared well in spot duty on both sides. He is entering his 6th season as the swing tackle, a testament to how highly the coaching staffs have felt about him during his tenure. Otto is better served on the left side, as he is not much of a run blocker. 

Center had been a problem issue since Kevin Mawae began to decline a few years back, but the Titans appear to have found an answer in Fernando Velasco. An interior reserve for several years, Velasco seized the center gig last offseason and didn’t let go. He has good balance and vision paired with a decent first step. Velasco fared pretty well between two subpar guards last year; wedging him between a potentially awesome guard tandem could raise up his own level of play. The converse is that Velasco will be seen as the weak link and attacked by opposing defenses. While that might be true, Velasco is a pretty darn solid weak link. As insurance the Titans drafted Cal center Brian Schwenke in the fourth round. He will get a crack at unseating Velasco but figures to spend the early part of his career as the top interior reserve. Schewnke is tough as nails and endeared himself to the Titans staff with spirited performances in Senior Bowl practice sessions, though he is a limited athlete. His experience as both a guard and a center make him ideally suited for the reserve role, and the team had a pressing need for that. Former Jets and Rams guard Rob Turner and Bears castoff Chris Spencer will compete for the other reserve job, though UDFA Oscar Johnson and Byron Stingily are younger and cheaper options for game-day inactives. 

Defense

2012 Ranks

Rushing YPC: 15th  

Passer Rating: 25th            

3rd Down: 22nd        

Scoring: 32nd 

DL: The tackle position features very good depth, if not a lot of star power. With former Lion Sammie Lee Hill coming in free agency, Tennessee now sports a four man rotation that should hold up quite well against the run. Hill and sturdy Jurell Casey figure to be the starters, and that’s a great deal of functional beef inside. While neither is blessed with great pass rushing skills or quickness, Both can shed a block and run down the QB for a few sacks apiece. Hill represents an upgrade over the departed SenDerrick Marks. He needs to be for what the Titans are paying him, but Hill was a very solid reserve to Nick Fairley and Ndamukong Suh in Detroit when he was healthy. He is the type of player who could blossom with increased responsibility.

Casey is one of the best run stuffers in the league. He locates the ball very well and has the power to control the point of attack. The USC product is a highly proficient tackler and deserves more press than he gets. So does Mike Martin, the best interior rusher on the team. As a 3rd round rookie last year, Martin showed he can make things happen as a rusher with a relentless motor. He is well-heeled in the savvy little veteran tricks you don’t expect from a rookie. He was credited with three sacks but should have been given at least two more, and Martin also recorded double digits in QB hurries despite playing about 25% of the defensive snaps over the season. Look for him to continue in that nickel rusher role and bring infectious energy and nastiness to the defense.

Karl Klug will be the fourth man in the rotation. Like Martin, he brings nonstop effort and intensity along with some ability to shoot the gap. His high point was sacking Andrew Luck twice. Klug bagged 7 sacks as a rookie in 2011, reinforcing just how young this group is and how much potential is here. Both he and Martin could start for many other teams. Veterans Ropati Pitoitua and Antonio Johnson will compete for the other spot. Give Pitoitua the edge if he can stay healthy, something that has been a problem as he bounced from the Jets to the Chiefs and now the Titans. He’s massive and plays the run quite well.

Kam Wimbley and Derrick Morgan return as the starting ends. Morgan finally came into his own and looked something like the first round pick the Titans hoped they were getting in 2010. He finished the year with four sacks in the final four weeks, showing a more consistent ability to avoid the initial block. Staying aggressive is imperative for Morgan, who doesn’t have great edge speed after his first step and is still developing more power moves. He also improved against the run. Morgan could be poised for a breakout campaign; it wouldn’t surprise me if Morgan blows away his career high sack and tackle totals of 6.5 and 59, respectively. Wimbley played decently in his first season in Tennessee, but continued on his streakiness that has pockmarked his career. He is capable of dominating a game, as he did in the San Diego game where he lived in Philip Rivers’ hip pocket. But Wimbley struggles against better tackles and has never shaken the rep of being a player that gets down on himself if things don’t go well early in the game. He’s never been a great run defender, so when he’s not effective as a pass rusher Wimbley really offers nothing but issues to the defense. That’s why having a solid backup is imperative. Unfortunately the Titans don’t have one of those. Rookie 5th round pick Lavar Edwards and underwhelming Keyunta Dawson are the top reserves. Edwards has great length and good spatial awareness but that never really translated into effectiveness as a pass rusher at LSU. He has a limited repertoire of pass rush moves but should at least hold up against the run adequately. Dawson played sparingly in his first year in Tennessee, his third team in three years. Scott Solomon showed little as a rookie but figures to get another shot, as the competition in camp consists of players who should consider it lucky if they stick on any practice squad. There is great pressure on Morgan to finally deliver a full season of his high potential, because there is not much else here other than the handful of quality games Tennessee can expect from Wimbley.

LB: I’m very bullish on the three young starters the Titans have assembled. Two of the starters, Akeem Ayers on the strong side and Colin McCarthy in the middle, are products of the 2011 draft, while Zach Brown on the weak side was a rookie last season.

McCarthy’s health is the key. In the last half of his rookie campaign in 2011, McCarthy really shined after taking over the starting role. He racked up 50 tackles in the final 8 games, and his range and tackling acumen were a welcome breath of fresh air. But he struggled with both an ankle injury and a concussion that forced him to miss over half the 2012 season. The ankle problem happened in Week One and it clearly bothered him; the lateral range was limited and he couldn’t explode out of his base nearly as well. McCarthy became even more of a lateral cleaner as a tackler instead of a downhill aggressor, a valid criticism of his rookie season as well. All indications are that McCarthy is healthy heading into camp and that should mean stability in the middle. He’s not likely to get many tackles for loss or sacks, but he can reliably snuff out runs as they get to the second level and should also provide much better coverage. Tennessee doesn’t necessarily need McCarthy to be a big playmaker because the outside backers handle that business pretty well.

Brown showed real playmaking flair as a rookie. One of the fastest backers in the league, Brown has the movement skills and speed of a free safety. His range and coverage acumen were no surprise, but the 5.5 sacks and three INTs were pleasant developments. Brown earned a reputation in college for having stone hands but he apparently learned how to catch. He has such excellent closing burst and a real feel for zone coverage that his improved hands make him a very real threat. Brown returned two of his three INTs for touchdowns. He dose suffer a bit from “Ernie Sims Disease”, the malady of a player being too fast for his own good; Brown will overrun plays and fly past the ball because he overreacts to everything he sees. Experience will breed better eye discipline, however, and I expect Brown to improve upon a very impressive rookie season.

Ayers is inconsistent but offers pass rushing punch. Defensive Coordinator Jerry Gray likes to blitz Ayers from a variety of angles, and he delivered six sacks and 18 QB pressures. He’s at his best moving forward, swooping in after the blockers commit to their spot. Ayers is not the fastest or most agile backer and he struggles to shed blocks. Gray has done a sound job of tailoring the role to what Ayers does well. Where he really needs to improve is making the tackle on the receiver. Too often he’s late to the party or diving at feet instead of closing on time and with balance, and it leads to big plays for the other team. Having better safety play behind him (more on that below) should help. Journeyman Moise Fokou joins his third team in as many seasons as the backup to McCarthy. Given McCarthy’s injury issues, he could see the field quite a bit. He has range limitations but can handle making the calls and playing zone coverage in the middle. Fokou should be an upgrade over last year’s reserve MLB, Tim Shaw, who might not make the team in 2013. Greg Jones and Patrick Bailey are also in the mix, both looking to finally establish a firm hold on a NFL roster spot. Keep an eye on UDFA Jonathan Willard from Clemson, who has decent range and excellent instincts in coverage.

To address the depth, the Titans used their third round pick on speedy Zaviar Gooden from Missouri. He should make a strong backup to Brown and is a similar type of player. Gooden’s speed really impressed during Senior Bowl week and he has some cover skills. He presents the Titans with the opportunity to play two very fast and agile LBs in a nickel package, an important ability in a division with some very good tight ends. Like Brown and Ayers, Gooden lacks bulk and will struggle in tight quarters, which places a bigger emphasis on the big boys up front doing their jobs.

Secondary: The key for this unit will be to get the talent here to congeal into a cohesive group that is better, not worse, than the sum of its individual parts. That did not happen last season. There is talent here with corners Jason McCourty and Alterraun Verner and safeties Michael Griffin, Bernard Pollard, and George Wilson, but they don’t always play to their talent levels and often appear as if they’ve never met.

McCourty signed a rich extension before last season as they sought to promote from within to replace enigmatic Cortland Finnegan as the top corner. By and large he met expectations. No corner in the league played more snaps than McCourty, and the passing numbers against him are somewhat a reflection of his never leaving the field. He allowed just over 64 percent of targets to get completed and surrendered seven TDs (thanks to Pro Football Focus for the stats!), both of which rank near the bottom. But in watching McCourty play, he was better than that. Frequently he was trying to do too much, and he often played with perilously unreliable safety help. McCourty has good size and can close on the ball well, displaying good instincts and excellent open field speed. He gets into trouble when his feet get too close together and he doesn’t change course all that fluidly. The team appreciates his demeanor and his playmaking knack (four INTS, 15 PDs, one forced fumble and recovery). He’s also the best returning tackler in the secondary and isn’t reluctant to stick his head into the pile in run support. 

Verner doesn’t lack aggression either, but he is far more hit and miss. He is smaller and doesn’t have great speed. The lack of speed makes his instincts and reads critical, because if he reads incorrectly or gets beat with an initial or double move he simply cannot recover. Verner also struggles with more physical receivers. There are times when he is dialed in where Verner is a very effective corner. The trick for DB Coach Brett Maxie is to get Verner playing more consistently and more in concert with his mates.

Getting better safety play can only help the corners, and the Titans acted swiftly to upgrade the position. Only one safety from last season, disappointing Michael Griffin, is likely to make the roster in 2013. Adding Bernard Pollard and George Wilson in free agency brings a veteran imprint of toughness and leadership. Both are ideally strong safeties but Wilson is versatile enough to play free safety as well, or combine with Pollard and Griffin in the emerging trend of three safety looks. Pollard is essentially an extra linebacker, and at 6’2” and about 225 he’s bigger than many LBs these days. As any Ravens or Texans fan (his teams the last three years) can attest, Pollard is worthless going backwards and in deep coverage. He makes his living as a seek-and-destroy thumper in the box and closing on the short outside passes. Pollard will miss more tackles than he should because he tries to simply hit everyone to the ground instead of wrapping and dropping, and his woes against mobile quarterbacks were on full display against Washington and San Francisco a year ago. At this point Pollard is best served playing a limited role, leaving the field on passing downs and against agile QBs in more open formations. That’s why signing Wilson with him is so important. Wilson is preternaturally patient and responsible in coverage situations; he embraces the literal meaning of the word “safety”. He’s not a playmaker or a big hitter like Pollard, but he’s the sort of reliable back end defender that keeps everything in front of him and makes good reads in zone coverage. With Pollard upgrading the short-range coverage and run defense, Wilson is precisely what the doctor ordered for deeper coverage.

Then there’s Griffin. The former first round pick really struggled with blown assignments and poor communication last year. He’s always been prone to sporadic breakdowns but those became more the norm than the exception in 2012. What makes that more frustrating is that the team rewarded him with a five-year, $35M contract before the season and he didn’t come close to earning that. Griffin has never quite escaped the “better athlete than football player” label many hung on him coming out of Texas, and he’s largely the same player now he was as a rookie in 2007. The matador tackling style infuriates many a Titans fan, though he tends to grab enough jersey to hold on until the cavalry arrives. His saving grace is that he does produce turnovers (17 total in the last three years) and isn’t awful against the run. Perhaps the pressure of competition for his job will cause Griffin to rise up. His contract is also a lot more palatable to dump after this season. There has even been some talk of sliding Verner to free safety and using Griffin more as a nickel cover corner. 

There is young depth across the secondary. The nickel and dime corners will be Coty Sensabaugh and Blidi Wreh-Wilson. Sensabaugh was the team’s 4th round pick in 2012 and gradually played his way into an expanded role, even starting the final two games. Like most rookies, he struggled some to adjust to the speed and the physicality of the NFL game. He has very good burst and quickness to stick with inside routes and is the corner best-suited for slot duty on the Titans. If he can add some functional bulk without losing his quickness he could become a very effective inside corner. Wreh-Wilson is a polar opposite; tall, physical, strong, and more fast than quick. The third round pick from UConn plays very upright for his 6’1” stature and likes to put his hands on receivers. He has some technique issues that need to be cleaned up but posted a lot of very impressive tape for the Huskies. I like that he won’t be forced to play too much right away, because Wreh-Wilson is going to look a lot better in 2014 and beyond after what I expect to be a slower rookie campaign. 6th round pick Khaled Wooten is a bowling ball of a corner, also in need of some technical refinement but not shy about using his physicality. Rookie 7th round pick Damion Stafford from Nebraska will compete with oft-injured Robert Johnson and journeyman Al Afalava for the other safety spot. Afalava finished the year as a starter and sucked less than his predecessors, and that is precisely the correct way to describe his game. Stafford also brings a physical nature but probably needs a year on the practice squad. At minimum, the Titans secondary will be much more painful to face.

Special Teams: Tennessee is in very good shape on special teams. Rob Bironas is coming off a down year but remains one of the better placekickers in the league. Until last season he had been quite reliable from beyond 40 yards, and I expect a rebound. Bironas remains excellent on kickoffs and the team trusts him. Punter Brett Kern has a booming leg, finishing in the top 10 in gross average. His ratio of 30 punts inside the 20 to just five touchbacks is excellent, though he did get two kicks blocked. Long snapper Beau Brinkley is the lightest player at his position in the league but was generally reliable as a rookie. He enters camp with no competition.

With Marc Mariani returning from injury the Titans have two excellent return men in Mariani and Darrius Reynaud, who returned two punts and one kickoff for touchdowns last year. He won the Detroit game singlehandedly and possesses great vision on the fly. Mariani ran back three kicks for TDs in the two prior seasons. It will be interesting to see if new Special Teams Coordinator Nate Kaczor deploys both on kickoffs or uses a rotation with one on punts and the other on kickoffs. It will also be interesting to see if the Titans dedicate two roster spots to return specialists to players who would otherwise be the 6th wideout and 4th running back. 

Forecast: Good news Titans fans! The team is on the definite upswing after a frustrating down patch. The rather hefty investment in the defense the past few drafts is showing signs of paying off. The defensive front is young and deep, and the secondary looks better with a couple of veteran additions and promising youngsters. Tennessee might have the best offensive line in the AFC with the addition of two big-name guards. Chris Johnson is still a viable home run threat with game-changing speed that defenses must account for on every snap. The receiving corps is deep, diverse, and has some playmaking ability. The special teams are excellent. 

So why does it seem likely the Titans will finish a disappointing 6-10 once again? There are two reasons. The first is out of their control: the schedule is brutal. Opening on the road against Pittsburgh and Houston is a brutal way to kick off the season, and they catch a stretch with three straight games against what figures to be the very strong NFC West. They also face a back-to-back roadie against 2012 playoff teams Denver and Indianapolis. It’s a tough slate for a young team with a tenuously employed coaching staff.

The second reason is Jake Locker. I really don’t want to beat a dead horse, but unless Locker makes a wildly improbable giant leap forward with his accuracy and efficiency, the offense is doomed to mediocrity at best. It goes beyond just raising the completion percentage; Locker must place the ball better to facilitate yards after the catch and produce a lot more touchdowns. Too often he makes his receivers work too hard to make the catch, or holds the ball too long and disrupts the timing advantage of the offense. GM Ruston Webb and Coach Mike Munchak have done everything they can to help Locker, but I’m not optimistic it will matter much. I’ll give Tennessee enough credit for one more win than a year ago. The Titans will finish 7-9, good for 3rd place in the AFC South but not good enough to spare offseason changes in the coaching staff and quarterback.