2012 Record: 12-4

Point Differential:    +85   
Turnover Margin:   +12    
Sack Differential: +16 

Offense

2012 Ranks

Rushing YPC: 17th  
Passing: 11th            
3rd Down: 17th         
Scoring: 10th

QB: Matt Schaub returns after guiding the Texans to a playoff win last season, but the heat is squarely on Schaub going forward. At least that’s what the Houston media would lead you to believe, and the local fans are praying that’s the case. Schaub suffers from the inability to raise his game to any higher level, but the team needs precisely that in order to advance further in the playoffs. He’s solidly in the second tier of NFL quarterbacks, annually completing right around 64% of his passes for about 7.8 yards per attempt and accruing a QB Rating of about 92. Schaub has thrown for at least 4,000 yards in each of his last three full seasons, and he’s now won a playoff game. The Texans value his presence both in the pocket and the locker room. Yet they need more. 

One step in that direction would be throwing more touchdowns. He’s topped the 25 TD mark just once, and while topping 20 TDs is nothing to sneeze at, it’s not the kind of threat that it could be. Lesser talents like Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Freeman annually throw for more. Schaub also throws more interceptions that he should, and he’s never been great in the red zone. A lot of that is a function of having such a strong running attack, but recent history has proven that a team must be able to throw more effectively than the other team in order to win playoff games. If the Texans are to win more than one playoff game for the first time in their history, it’s incumbent upon Schaub to have a spike in touchdowns and a hot streak late in the year, where he declined badly a year ago. It is not out of the question that Schaub surges to a “career year” with 34 touchdowns to 12 INTs and better efficiency on 3rd down, in the red zone, and in 4th quarters of games (Houston ranked 25th in 4th quarter scoring a year ago) leading the team deep into the playoffs. He has that potential, the team has that potential.

The first quarterback in franchise history to win a playoff game was not Schaub but rather TJ Yates, who returns for his third season as the backup. His historic playoff triumph aside, Yates has done little to inspire confidence should he be forced into extended action again. Yates has issues with ball security and holding the ball too long, and his arm strength is mediocre at best. Still, Coach Kubiak is comfortable with Yates, who is heady and knows the offense inside out. His job is safe this year. The third QB is subject to a camp battle between Houston’s own Case Keenum and former Cowboys 4th rounder Stephen McGee, also a guy with Houston ties. McGee is the better athlete and deep arm, Keenum the smarter player and more accurate thrower. Put them together and you’ve got a reasonable facsimile of Mark Brunell in his heyday, but individually neither is bound for more than clipboard and practice team duty. 

RB: Having Arian Foster as the top running back is never dull. Foster is one of most instinctive, elusive runners in the league. He’s also one of the more entertaining and bright personalities in the NFL today. Unfortunately for Foster, he is chronically battling all sorts of minor, nagging injuries that limit practice time and keep a grey cloud over his availability. When he’s at even 90 percent, Foster has an electrifying blend of vision, balance, and nifty acceleration that has produced over 4200 yards and 41 TDs the last three seasons. To show his versatility, he’s also caught 159 passes in those three seasons, though the receptions keep declining each year. Foster reliably churns out chunks of yardage, and the Texans have leaned on him heavily; no player has more touches over the last three years than Arian Foster. 

That workload could be counterproductive. Foster comes off his worst season in terms of yards per attempt at “just” 4.1, which is decidedly ordinary. His yards per reception plummeted from a career average of 10 to 5.4. Moreover, his consistency leaves something to be desired. Foster had 6 games where he put up less than 3.2 yards per carry, including absolute clunkers vs. Green Bay (17 carries, 29 yards) and Minnesota (10 carries, 15 yards, lost a fumble). He is becoming more of an all-or-nothing back, a guy who needs his biorhythms in sync to have a strong game. That’s obviously an exaggeration, but you get the point; Foster is not the reliable, dominant presence he is often made out to be. I still love him as a fantasy back, however, as the 41 touchdowns in the last three years are not going away. 

Houston suffers from an abundance of depth at running back. Ben Tate has been a strong backup since the Texans took him in the second round in 2010. Tate is more of a power back than Foster, but he too can bounce the run outside and cut off his blocks adeptly. This is a contract year for Tate and he has already expressed a desire to become The Man somewhere else, which means motivation for a big payday and a better opportunity. Normally that is a very good thing, and Tate has the talent to back it up. His usage has been a fairly consistent 8-12 touches per game, which could see a slight uptick in 2013.

Deji Karim holds the third spot, albeit tenuously. Now playing for his third AFC South team in three years, Karim is short but sturdily built. He will have to fight off a host of undrafted free agents who many draftniks expected to be drafted. The best of the lot is Ray Graham, another diminutive pinball-type runner. His pass protection and receiving skills give him the leg up on Cierre Wood, who is more of a third down-type back. The wild card, and the most impressive during early OTAs, was former Arkansas speedster Dennis Johnson. At just 5’6” Johnson makes the 5’9” Graham look towering, but Johnson has immediate speed and nifty acceleration. If he can learn to hang onto the football and stay in one piece, the Texans have themselves a real find.

There will be a new fullback for the third year in a row, and the Texans deploy the fullback more than most teams. Following Vonta Leach and James Casey in the role is Greg Jones, a free agent from Jacksonville who is more of a running threat than either but not the thumping blocker that Leach was or the multipurpose threat of Casey. Former Bear Tyler Clutts and rookie project Zach Boren will compete for the 2nd FB roster spot, one which may or may not exist. Boren is an interesting character who played linebacker surprisingly well at Ohio State as a senior and could stick around as one of those bottom of the roster special teams fixtures with great versatility.

WR/TE: For years now the Texans have desperately needed a viable complement to play opposite Andre Johnson. GM Rick Smith finally opted to really try and committed the team’s first round pick to DeAndre “Nuke” Hopkins. And if early indications from OTAs and camp are to be used as a barometer, we could be seeing a sea change at wide receiver where the aging Johnson might be the complement to Hopkins sooner than later. 

Nuke was my highest rated outside receiver in the last draft class. While he lacks elite downfield speed, everything else about Hopkins strongly suggests a good-not-great #1 wideout. He excels at creating separation for himself with crisp footwork and athletic subtleties like shoulder and hip fakes. Hopkins catches anything near him and has the ability to create after the catch, something that the departed Kevin Walter never offered. At minimum, Hopkins’ presence will help alleviate the coverage attention on Johnson. That’s a real positive, because Johnson has become easier to cover over the years. His initial burst isn’t what it used to be and he seldom treads the deep middle any longer, but Andre Johnson remains a very productive, trustworthy wideout. Schaub trusts him implicitly, and the QB/WR mind meld they have is unusually strong. With Hopkins taking away the safety help from the inside, Johnson might finally be able to breach the double digit barrier in touchdowns, the most glaring hole on his strong résumé. It’s a very strange phenomenon; Johnson collected 112 receptions for 1598 yards but saw the end zone just four times in his fabulous bounceback season. As long as his legs are healthy, and at 32 and with his history that is not a given, expect Johnson to collect another 95+ catches for 1250+ yards and remain one of the better perimeter run blockers in the league. Even if Hopkins fails to meet my lofty expectations, Johnson is talented and savvy enough to remain one of the very best wideouts in the league. 

After Johnson and Hopkins, the depth chart still looks bleak. A pair of 2012 mid-round draft picks, DeVier Posey and Keshawn Martin, did little as rookies. Posey showed some spark late in the season but tore his Achilles tendon and will miss at least the first half of the 2013 season. Martin started off well but gradually played his way out of the rotation, catching just 10 of his 26 targets and failing to show enough fight for the ball to please Coach Kubiak. His skill set should allow him to fill the Walter role in the offense as a short-range possession receiver, but he must demonstrate a bigger catching range and use his physicality better. Onetime camp star Lestar Jean has never come close to recapturing his Summer of 2011 magic, which ended with a broken shoulder. Jean possesses excellent long speed and good size but remains raw as a route runner and unreliable as a pass catcher. If he doesn’t show more in preseason he could find himself looking for another team. Sixth round pick Allen Bonner will be given every chance to beat him out, even though Bonner is much more of a slot option. Quicker than fast but blessed with great feet and soft hands, Bonner is a wild card who could earn a bigger role than expected. I like undrafted rookie Uzoma Nwachukwu, a speedster with local TAMU ties, to at least make the practice squad. 

Houston uses their tight ends quite a bit in the passing game, and they have a pair of good ones in Owen Daniels and Garrett Graham. Daniels, affectionately known as OD and one of the most popular Texans off the field, finished second on the team by a wide margin in targets, receptions, and yards, and his six touchdowns paced the team. He does almost all his work in the 8-12 yard range, adept at sitting in the holes in the zone and curling back to Schaub as a safety valve. He’s not much of a blocker and is no downfield threat, however, as knee injuries have robbed him of his burst. Graham is, like Daniels, a Wisconsin product who does his best work in the short and intermediate passing game. Houston likes to use two tight end packages with Graham lined tight and Daniels as the movement or flexed out guy. Graham is a better run blocker and is adept at chipping the rush end before releasing as well. Last season they caught 90 passes combined and that seems about right once again, but look for the split to be narrower than Daniels getting 62 to Graham’s 28 a year ago. Sixth round pick Ryan Griffin is a project from UConn, a raw dog whose bite doesn’t yet match his bark. He brings an edge and almost frightening passion on the field but needs a lot of technical development. He looks to have jumped 2012 project Philip Supernaw on the pecking order, though it’s not out of the question the team keeps four tight ends.

OL: The left tackle-left guard-center package of Duane Brown, Wade Smith, and Chris Myers is one of the very best in the league. Brown is arguably the best left tackle in the NFL today even though he doesn’t get the publicity. What sets him apart is his terrific balance. Even if the pass rusher initially bests him, Brown has the balance to maintain his technique and the quick feet to recover. He’s also quite physical and agile as a run blocker. The only real issue that consistently flusters Brown is shorter edge rushers with a great first step (read: Dwight Freeney), but those guys give everyone fits. One dimensional pass rushers don’t stand a chance. It doesn’t hurt that he squares off with JJ Watt (more on him later!) in practice every day.

Smith & Myers are two quiet, steady veterans who are excellent schematic fits for the predominately zone blocking system the Texans run under Coach Kubiak and Offensive Line Coach John Benton. Last offseason the Texans chose to keep Myers instead of more prominent right tackle Eric Winston, a beloved team leader. They were proven correct in keeping Myers, who moves quite well and is a master of the subtleties of leverage and hand placement. He will get overpowered on occasion but Myers remains one of the best pivots in the league. He has surrendered just 4 sacks in the last three seasons. Smith has declined a bit as he enters his mid-30s but is still an above-average starter. Like Myers, his base strength is his biggest weakness and he struggled badly with physical bulls like Suh and Ngata, but again, who doesn’t? This threesome enters their fourth season starting together, and that sort of cohesion and familiarity is a major feather in their cap.

The right side is the biggest question mark on the entire offense, which is saying something for a team with Houston’s decided lack of wideout depth. They missed Winston at right tackle, though not as much as most (myself included) thought they would. That’s more on Winston’s decline in play than anything his successors Derek Newton and Antoine Caldwell did well. Newton, a 7th round pick in 2011, was not up to the demands of the jump in competition. His feet are just not quick enough to handle the scheme, particularly as a run blocker. The Texan are optimistic he will fare better in his second year as a starter, and they like the feistiness and physicality he brings to the table. He faces a stiff camp challenge from rookie 3rd rounder Brennan Williams, who is lighter on his feet and showed decent ability to pick up outside blitzes while at North Carolina. If Williams wins the job, look for the team to cut ties with Newton. Right guard appears in better shape thanks to second year behemoth Brandon Brooks getting himself into better shape. Sloppy with his weight and technique as a 3rd round rookie, Brooks showed up to minicamp having lost 30 pounds and looking significantly leaner. It showed on the field, as he moved more fluidly and kept his feet moving. Brooks has a chance to be a devastating run blocker. His pass protection is solid to his inside, where his brute strength locks up and anchors quite well. Picking up twists, stunts, and inside blitzes are keys to his progress as a blocker.

Ryan Harris returns as the swing tackle, a role he filled quite capably a year ago. He’s better on the left than the right and is better used in spot relief than as a fill-in starter, which he did last year twice on the right side. Rookie 6th round pick David Quessenberry was a favorite draft steal of mine, but he has a crowded position group to face. Because of camp injuries, Quessenberry got his chance to run with the starters at right tackle and the coaches heaped praise on him. At worst he makes the team as the 8th lineman thanks to that exposure and his ability to play both guard and tackle. Versatility is also the calling card of interior reserve Ben Jones, who can play center and guard. He really struggled with the speed and power of the NFL defensive tackles as a rookie, however, surrendering 5.5 sacks in a 6 week period as the starting right guard. 

Defense

2012 Ranks

Rushing: 11th            
Passing: 8th 
3rd Down: 2nd            
Scoring: 10th

DL: Expectations are sky high for this unit, with JJ Watt coming off arguably the greatest season by any defensive lineman in NFL history. Even with an expected statistical regression--what he did last year simply cannot be replicated--expect Watt to once again be a leading contender for Defensive Player of the Year honors. His brute strength combined with his fluky quickness and incredible sense of ball awareness are not going to go away, even if he can’t match the league-leading 20.5 sacks, 24 tackles for loss, or 16 PDs once again. The batted passes are truly a special gift Watt possesses for timing his jumps and anticipating passing lanes. Watt is a safe bet to notch at least 75% of that production across the board in 2013, even as offenses key on him more. Watt’s ability to flip his shoulders and hips off a pass rush move bring to mind Reggie White; he’s that good. Consider that he missed last preseason with a hyperextended elbow that wasn’t 100% well into the season. Watt is growing into his own as a team leader as well.

Watt will once again line up opposite veteran Antonio Smith, a very effective pass rushing 3-4 DE in his own right. Smith is the kind of player that coaches and opponents appreciate a lot more than fans do. He knows all the little tricks and does the sort of dirty work that leads to glory by others. His ability to sell a false step and burst back in the other direction continues to befuddle opposing linemen and gets him through the B gap quickly a few times a game. It’s the defensive line version of the ankle-breaking crossover dribble. Smith wields a great deal of locker room respect and power in Houston, which helps gloss over his frustrating propensity for taking himself out of position against the run.

With Shaun Cody departing, Earl Mitchell takes over on the nose. Mitchell is lighter but better at locating the ball than Cody. Neither is any threat to rush the passer and not asked to do so in Defensive Coordinator Wade Philips’ scheme. The duo effectively split the role last year, so the bigger question here is if Terrell McClain is up to pulling his weight in the rotation. The Texans do have some young depth, which comes more into play when the team uses a four man front. Jared Crick is the top reserve end after playing well in a limited role as a 4th round rookie last year. The team likes his ability to anchor and his eyes for the ball. 6th round pick Chris Jones comes from Bowling Green as a gap-shooting pass rusher. That figures him as an interior replacement for Mitchell or McClain in passing situations, albeit not more than about 10-12 snaps per game. Prodigal Texan Tim Jamison, who has been waived by the team 6 times since 2009 but keeps coming back for more, morphs between end and outside linebacker. He is coming off a torn Achilles that threatens to find him on the waiver wire once again. Shifty Keith Browner spent 2012 on the practice squad and could wind up there again.

LB: A lot here depends on the return of last season’s starting inside backers, Daryl Sharpton and Brian Cushing, to full health. Both missed significant portions of 2012 with injuries. Cushing was well on his way to another strong season when a cheap shot in the Jets game blew out his knee and ended his year in Week Five. An incredibly versatile weapon inside, Cushing is a heat-seeking missile of a backer. He is an adept blitzer that uses a great closing burst and brutal power to tremendous effectiveness between the tackles. A fitness fanatic who has been suspended for PED use in the past (his testosterone level tested higher than believed possible), Cushing has a lengthy history of soft tissue injuries dating back to his early USC days. As of June 28th, Cushing has still yet to be cleared for full participation, which casts doubt upon just how fully he can recover from his latest malady without the aid of banned substances. If he can return to a close facsimile of his old self, the Texans defense will be much improved, but if not they will sorely miss his presence.

Sharpton started last year on the PUP with one issue and ended it on IR with another. The latter is a hip issue that continues to linger, as Sharpton was extremely limited in OTAs. His range in coverage and ability to chase down the run from the inside out was no small part of why the Texans parted with Demeco Ryans, but thus far the injuries have prevented Sharpton from coming close to that potential. There is so much concern about the health of Cushing and Sharpton that Brooks Reed is poised to move inside. It’s an interesting move. Reed had limited success as a pass rushing outside backer, accruing just 8.5 sacks and forcing one turnover in his first two seasons. His stiffness in turning the corner is mitigated by playing inside, but it remains to be seen if he has the instincts and vision to properly defend the run or cover tight ends and backs. Reserve Tim Dobbins is the best cover backer on the team. He played too much last year thanks to the injuries above him, but he remains a solid reserve who can play all over the formation.

There are a lot more unknowns here at outside backer than any team would like to have at arguably the most important position for a 3-4 defense. Should Reed slide inside, the Texans will have two new starters at outside linebacker. One of them will be 2012 1st rounder Whitney Mercilus, who bagged 6 sacks and forced two fumbles as a rookie. Mercilus was far better when playing limited snaps, bringing fresh energy and quickness as a situational sub. When given fulltime duty late in the year he floundered, proving too one dimensional and overly reliant on his first step. He’s a very bright guy, so Mercilus should learn from his rookie campaign and be a better all-around backer going forward. He should threaten double digit sacks while flanking Watt, something the mercurial Connor Barwin did just once in his four star-crossed years in Houston. Replacing Barwin’s quirky character, which was well-received in the Texans locker room and among the fan base, will be much harder. The other OLB spot is likely to get split between Reed, special teams demon Bryan Braman, and rookie 4th round pick Sam Montgomery. Braman is the kindred spirit of Chris “Birdman” Andersen, sans the body art; he goes full tilt every second on the field with a childlike enthusiasm and infectious vigor. But he’s played almost exclusively on special teams in his first two seasons and has just a half sack in that time. Montgomery is switching from defensive end and learning how to play in space. If it clicks, the LSU product could be a major steal. Montgomery was a first round talent who fell because of (legit) questions about his effort and mentality. Another rookie, Trevardo Williams, brings more of a thumping presence. He could see more action than expected if he proves capable of handling his business against the run. Like Montgomery, he is a collegiate defensive end making the transition to outside backer.

Secondary: The Texans have a solid corner duo in Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson, two guys who fit quite nicely in the assigned roles. Joseph has been reliably strong in his first two years in Houston. He’s physical and smart about using that physicality, mixing up his approach to keep the offense guessing a bit. Joseph missed more tackles than he should a year ago and still requires safety help deep, but he’s quite good within 15 yards. His breadth of knowledge on opposing receivers is well developed. Jackson is a case study in the power of perseverance and patience. He was downright awful as a first round rookie in 2010, completely unable to turn and run with even pedestrian receivers. He struggled again in his second year but showed enough improvement for the team to not give up on him. They were rewarded in his third season, as Jackson’s ability finally started to match the 1st round potential. Jackson allowed less than half of the passes thrown his way to get completed. He broke up 16 passes and picked off four others, showing more confidence in his ballhawking ability and better positioning on outside routes. Jackson is now arguably the best corner on the team, and he and Joseph together make a good tandem.

Brice McCain is the nickel back. His up and down nature makes for weekly intrigue. McCain was very good in 2011 as a pet project of DB Coach Vance Joseph, one of the best in the business. But the improvement didn’t stick as his role expanded in 2012. He is coming off a broken foot that ended his season early, and the Texans secondary really fell off without him even though he wasn’t playing particularly well. The issue is that two 2011 draft picks, second rounder Brandon Harris and fourth rounder Roc Carmichael, have both been awful. Harris is small and tentative, a bad combination. He’s not quick enough to play in the slot and not physical enough to hang outside, something this draftnik cautioned verbatim heading into that draft. Still, he’s been better than Carmichael, who is in real danger of not making the team. They were a strange draft package to begin with, completely divergent styles of which neither really fit with Houston. Carmichael is a straight Cover 2 corner, lacking range and long speed outside, but the Texans almost never play that style. He will have to beat out a troika of undrafted rookies, all of whom have better athleticism and more apparent hunger than Carmichael. The best of the group in OTAs was AJ Bouye, a long-limbed project from Central Florida. Both Travis Howard and Johnny Adams could make the practice squad, with Adams possibly seeing some live action if/when the inevitable injuries hit.

With Glover Quin leaving via free agency, the Texans decided to roll the dice on future Hall of Famer Ed Reed. The Ravens icon is a huge question mark thanks to age and injury. Reed turns 35 just after the season kicks off, and he may or may not be on the field at that time thanks to a torn labrum in his hip. Between that and a chronic neck ailment, Reed’s availability is very much a week to week proposition, though it is worth mentioning he hasn’t missed a game in two years. His coverage skills have diminished somewhat, as he has taken to guessing more and freelancing. Reed remains one of the best ballhawks in NFL history and an intimidating hitter over the middle, and the Texans are praying those characteristics won’t fall off. Quin often played as a de facto linebacker in their nickel and dime packages, and Reed is just not up for that duty. Danieal Manning returns to start at the other safety spot. He has limitations in coverage, a safety who tends to allow the completion and then goes for the immediate tackle rather than attacking the ball. He’s better in straight run support. When McCain went down and the team asked Manning to do more in coverage, he flopped. This is why Reed’s health is so important; Manning is perfectly adequate as a complementary safety but woefully over his head as the primary force. Rookie DJ Swearinger has the potential to make everything copacetic, however. Swearinger is the team’s second round pick out of South Carolina, a fearsome hitter with reckless abandon that reminds some of none other than Ed Reed. He shined in OTAs while filling in with the starters. If he can keep his emotions in check--he led the nation in personal fouls as a senior--and keep plays in front of him, Swearinger could be a very good player right away. The Texans just might need him to be. They must find a competent 4th safety from a camp battle between Shiloh Keo, Ohrian Johnson, and Jawanza Starling. Keo has proven he doesn’t belong on the field other than special teams, while the others are undrafted rookies.

Special Teams: Houston reached out and signed the greatest punter in NFL history. That’s right, the greatest punter in NFL history. Shane Lechler comes off a down year with the Raiders, but his long track record of being superlative well beyond expectation suggests that the Texans won’t miss Donnie Jones, who was pretty darn good in his own right last year. Randy Bullock takes over the kicking role, a position he would have had last year as a 5th round rookie if not for a groin injury. The team hopes he can best Shayne Graham’s 5-for-10 performance on kicks beyond 48 yards. Keshawn Martin was okay as a punt return man, breaking four kicks for more than 20 yards but getting almost a third of his 267 return yards on one of his 22 efforts. He showed little elusiveness as a kick return man. The coverage units will have to replace Allen Ball and Jesse Naeding, the two best cover aces. There is more unknown here than contending teams would like to have.

Forecast: The Texans have a two-year reign as AFC South Champs and have won a playoff game in both those seasons. Those teams were built on a dynamic ground game, efficient passing from Matt Schaub, and an aggressive, playmaking defense spearheaded by JJ Watt. All those facets return. The question is, can they make the jump in the AFC pecking order and get past the divisional round of the playoffs? It certainly doesn’t seem likely, but it’s not impossible. If DeAndre Hopkins breathes life and potency to the passing game and if Arian Foster can once again find the end zone 10+ times, there will be enough punch to compete with anyone. But getting more out of the defense, which was embarrassed by New England twice as part of a late-season falloff, is not going to be easy. As awesome as JJ Watt is, the Texans have serious questions at linebacker and lack depth across the back eight. Mix in a new punter, new kicker, and a host of changes on cover and return units and the special teams are an unpredictable variable. 

I have a sinking feeling this group peaked around Halloween last year and won’t ever get back to that level of play. The schedule is tough, particularly early on with trips to Super Bowl combatants Baltimore and San Francisco sandwiched around a date with a very good Seattle team. But they play in the weakest division in the league and match up quite well against those AFC South foes, which means their divisional supremacy is likely to extend to a third year. Look for the Texans to finish 9-7, which is good enough to win the AFC South, but their run of winning a playoff game ends at two years in a row.