2012 Record: 10-6

Point Differential:    +98   
Turnover Margin:   +20   
Sack Differential: -3

Offense

2012 Ranks

Rushing YPC: 15th  
Passer Rating: 22nd           
3rd Down: 23rd         
Scoring: 15th 

QB: The Chicago Bears haven’t had a quarterback with Jay Cutler’s natural ability and talent in the Super Bowl era. Yet for a variety of reasons, some of which are on Cutler but many of which are far beyond his control, that ability has not translated into the level of success Chicago anticipated when they dealt for him before the 2009 season. Cutler has been good-not-great in his four seasons in the Windy City. In fact, in Cutler’s Chicago tenure his QB+ rating, where 100 is the league average QB rating, Cutler has a score of 99.2. Rounding up, that’s a perfectly average quarterback. That is indicative that Cutler is not really the problem, but he might not be the solution either. And that’s the problem Chicago faces heading into 2013.

This season sets up as make-or-break for Jay Cutler in Chicago. He will be a free agent at the end of the season, and the new coaching and management regime has not exactly been aggressive in trying to lock him up. The new head coach, Marc Trestman, is a noted quarterback guru. The onus is on Cutler to adapt to Trestman, not vice versa. To achieve that, Cutler must improve his decision making. Cutler has a fantastic arm but has reckless confidence in it, and that leads to costly interceptions and missed opportunities. His tendency to hold the ball too long is another facet where Trestman’s tutelage can help. Where Cutler can help himself is in being a better leader and teammate. While the Cutler-as-pariah angle is dramatically overplayed by media critics, it is certainly rooted in some very evident truths. From clashing with iconic Brian Urlacher to pushing a lineman in anger to carrying himself with a shoegazing persona that many find horribly off-putting, Jay Cutler has failed to capture the hearts and souls of both his teammates and the exasperated fan base.

Cutler does have a certain amount of leverage. Backup Jason Campbell is now in Cleveland. He is replaced by Josh McCown, who is an exceptional case study in freakish longevity by a journeyman backup. He’s been on seven teams, and he has a crazy history of being sent packing every time he’s had a chance to play. McCown was lousy in relief of an injured Cutler two years ago, but he was a more viable option than Caleb Hanie. The only other QB in camp is Matt Blanchard, an undrafted free agent who spent 2012 on the practice squad after a triumphant career at Wisconsin Whitewater.

RB: Matt Forte continues to be one of the more underappreciated all-around backs in the league. His versatility and skill at doing everything asked well often get overlooked by fans looking for the sizzling plays. That is not Forte’s forte, but he is a very reliable chain mover with great vision and a very high football IQ. The Bears lean on him to do more than is asked of most backs. He’s an excellent pass protector and receiver, attributes the Bears probably lean on more than they should. The biggest issue with Forte is his lack of explosiveness, both when he first gets the ball and when he gets into the open field. He’s also surprisingly ineffective in the red zone, an area where the Bears can definitely improve as they ranked just 24th in touchdown percentage a year ago, the same ranking as in 2010. Hopefully a fresh offense with Trestman will facilitate more touchdowns and fewer short Robbie Gould field goals. 

Backup Michael Bush can also help in the red zone. He is a physical runner with an ideal build and mindset for a short yardage back. Almost 70 percent of his yards the last two seasons have come after contact, and Bush is great at keeping momentum moving forward and surging for an extra yard or two. Unlike Forte, he’s a liability in the passing game. It’s worth noting that Bush was much more involved early in the season, when the Bears ran out to a 4-1 record; over half his carries came in those first five weeks.

Fullback Evan Rodriguez was released in early June, the result of being unreliable as a person and not as a player. He was red flagged from many draft boards in 2012 for a litany of off-field issues, and the Bears decided he just wasn’t worth the trouble despite showing some legit NFL skills as a rookie. Free agent Tony Fiammetta and practice squad fixture Harvey Unga will battle it out to earn the spot. The third RB is seldom-used Armando Allen, who saw action almost exclusively in blowout wins over AFC South teams last year. The diminutive Notre Dame product runs at full speed all the time but lacks vision. 

WR/TE: Brandon Marshall quickly established himself as just what the doctor ordered for Chicago. The big, physical wideout has been wildly productive with Cutler, finishing second in both receptions and targets (to Calvin Johnson in both cases) amongst all receivers. He is a lethal weapon down the right sideline, too long and strong for DBs to handle and with enough litheness to create space for himself. The Bears didn’t hide that he was the focal point of the offense and yet Marshall still produced a monster season. He even received praise for his blocking acumen, a development that must stun Dolphins fans that watched him loaf in the run game. When talking about Marshall, it is necessary to bring up his mental condition that has left him prone to erratic behavior. Marshall seems much more in control after going public, and it also seems to help that he’s back with Cutler, whom he trusts from their Denver days. 

Beyond Marshall, the Bears need significant improvement. They hoped that would come in the form of Alshon Jeffery, their 2nd round pick in 2012. Jeffery struggled with injuries that limited him to just 29 receptions. More to the point, he proved many a draftnik assertion that he could not get separation versus NFL coverage quite prescient. Jeffery has great size but no discernible quickness at all, and his long speed is lesser than many tight ends. He missed seven games with injuries and caught just 24 passes (on 48 targets), numbers that have to significantly improve if the Bears offense is to do the same. A player with his size and draft status needs to do more than catch a handful of short tosses, and he must negate the penalty issues that were rampant in the Green Bay game. 

Earl Bennett returns as the third outside receiver, though he manages to start several games every year. He is the epitome of a generic third wideout, generally sure handed across the middle and able to break a tackle every so often to pick up extra yards. He seldom goes deep, instead sitting in short and intermediate zones and giving Cutler, his college teammate (a fact you’ve no doubt been beaten over the head with), a trustworthy target. Bennett has missed at least four games in each of the last two seasons and has never come close to the output of his first season with Cutler in Chicago. He barely made half of it last year, and because he is average across the board athletically it’s not likely to spike once again.

The slot has been Devin Hester’s domain by and large, but the new regime is not beholden to Hester like Lovie Smith and Jerry Angelo were. Hester has never really developed as a receiving threat, and like Bennett, his numbers continue to dwindle every successive year since a strong 2009. He will have to legitimately beat out Eric Weems to keep his receiving gig. The Bears have waffled on giving him more to do on offense or sparing him more for his once-legendary return skills. But his dramatic falloff as a return man (more on that later) means he must show something useful offensively or else he could be a prominent camp casualty. 

There is a litany of other receivers competing for spots in camp, most notably waiver wire fixture Devin Aromashodu. The most intriguing is 7th round pick Marquess Wilson, a speedy, polished, tough wideout from Washington State. A legit 2nd round talent on the field, he fell in the draft after quitting on his team and claiming his coach verbally abused him, which Wilson himself later recanted. If he can buy into the team concept, the Bears got themselves a steal and a viable upgrade over Bennett as the third receiver. 

Free agent Martellus Bennett finds himself on his third team in three seasons. After washing out with the Dallas Cowboys, he cashed in on a make-good year with the New york Giants and scored a four-year, $20M deal to help the moribund tight end position with Chicago. Bennett is a huge target over the middle with just enough giddyup to present a threat if flexed out. But he is better lined up tight, chipping the rusher and releasing into a route. Bennett has been pretty inconsistent throughout his career, but in New York he brought the “A” game every week. If he can do that for the Bears he represents a huge upgrade over enigmatic Kellen Davis, who was let go after a disappointing 19-catch campaign. Matt Spaeth is also gone, which means the new No. 2 tight end is former Chief Steve Maneri. He’s more of an extra tackle at 6’6” and 275+ pounds. Given the Bears pass protection woes, he could be a valuable acquisition. 

OL: I’m going to shamelessly steal from an old friend and lifelong Bears fan for this section. The Bears offensive line is the termite infestation on the luxurious lakeside log cabin. No matter how many pesticides the Bears have tried, they just cannot rid themselves of the pesky termites that keep undermining the foundation of the team. They’ve tried different exterminators in the form of offensive line coaches to no avail. No matter how nice the rest of the cabin is, when you own it all you can think about is the termites ruining everything.

The line hasn’t quite been that dire, but it’s pretty close. There is a new exterminator in town in Offensive Coordinator Aaron Kromer, who also happens to be the new Offensive Line Coach as well. He comes from the Saints and brought one of his pest control experts along with him in LT Jermon Bushrod. The problem is that Bushrod has consistently been one of the worst pass protectors in the league; in 2012 he allowed a whopping 46 QB pressures, a year after allowing 42. By way of comparison, the immobile sieve that is J’Marcus Webb allowed just 29 QB pressures as the Bears starting left tackle last year, though Bushord surrendered just four sacks to Webb’s seven. In fact, if not for penalties being factored in the good folks at Pro Football Focus would have rated Webb above Bushrod. They ranked 44th and 47th in overall tackle ratings. This is swapping in fire ants for termites, folks… 

Webb moves to the right side, where he is probably a better fit with his slow feet and tendency to lean way over his shoes. He is country strong with a wide base, and he seals the edge nicely in the run game. Putting him on the right means he’ll get more help from the tight ends with speed off the edge. Webb faces competition from Jonathan Scott and a couple of new Bears, 5th round pick Jordan Mills and free agent Eben Britton. Because Scott can play both right and left tackle somewhat competently and because he has spent more time hurt than healthy in his 7-year journeyman career, it’s more likely he sticks as the third tackle than challenging for a starting role. Mills is the one to watch here. The rookie from Louisiana Tech is physical, tenacious, and plays with a welcome nastiness. I had a 3rd round grade on Mills and believe he can start at RT, though his lack of great athleticism limits his ceiling. 

I had Mills rated higher than Kyle Long, the Bears stunning 1st round pick and projected starter at RG. Long shot up draft boards thanks to his lineage (Dad is Howie, Big Brother is Chris) and affable personality, handling questions about his drug issues and football inexperience with grace, humor, and maturity. What got obscured is that Long just isn’t a great football player at this point. His technique is raw, and his learning curve is very steep for an overaged (he’s 24) rookie with four career starts. I don’t doubt his work ethic or natural athletic ability, but that can only take him so far. Long was a monumental reach in the draft, and throwing him to the wolves could be the worst possible idea.

One of the reasons the Bears were so desperate to reach for Long is the abject failure of 2011 1st round pick Gabe Carimi. They tried him at right tackle and he wasn’t awful before blowing out his knee as a rookie. But he never recovered from that knee issue, and the team tired of him using the knee injury as an excuse. They traded him to Tampa Bay in early June for a 6th round pick once it became clear that he wasn’t even the top backup at either RT (Mills/Scott) or RG (James Brown).

Defense

2012 Ranks

Rushing YPC: 14th  
Passing: 2nd
3rd Down: 6th   
Scoring: 2nd

DL: The front four are heavily leaned upon to do the vast bulk of pass rushing in Chicago, and they have some pretty good building blocks. DT Henry Melton earned a Pro Bowl trip with six sacks and consistent disruptiveness in the interior. He’s been one of the most reliable and effective tackles in the league the past two seasons. Unfortunately he and the Bears could not agree on a long-term contract, so Melton will play the 2013 season under the franchise tag. There is always an unknown variable in how a player reacts to being tagged, but there is little worry here. Melton is well respected and has unquestionable effort, so expect another season of 6-8 sacks, 20-25 QB hurries, and a few tackles for loss. Melton is a rising star inside.

Stephen Paea will once again start inside next to Melton. Paea surprised me with better pass rushing skills than I expected last season, able to translate his incredible upper body strength into jolting blockers and slipping past them before they can recover. The numbers look modest but Paea was more effective than 4 sacks and 16 QB hurries would indicate. For such a strong player, Paea is surprisingly easy to push around in the run game. This is something that worried me in the 2011 draft after he dominated the bench press drill, yet area scouts told me he squatted less than some wideouts at Oregon State. Don’t neglect leg day in the weight room!

I love the camp move of bringing in former New Orleans Saints' first-round disappointment Sedrick Ellis. The humbling experience of struggling to find work after being the seventh overall pick of the draft in 2008 and playing out his rookie contract will either motivate Ellis or end his once-promising career. The attacking “under” alignment plays to his gap-shooting strength. Ellis is a low-risk roll of the dice and bolsters the depth at a terribly thin position. Journeyman castoffs Anthony Collins and Corey Irvin are next men up on the depth chart, but if either plays more than spot duty the Bears are in real trouble here.

The depth chart is deeper at end, and that depth is punctuated by Julius Peppers. He is the exclamation point to the defense, a physically gifted pass rusher. Peppers has 25 sacks and 90 (ninety!) QB pressures the last two seasons, truly amazing numbers. He is the type of talent that demands auxiliary blocking assignments from the offense. Teams have had some success running right at him and cutting him on quick-hit throws, but Peppers is a legit elite edge rushing talent. Peppers battled through some nagging injuries last season. If he’s fully healthy, and indications from early OTAs are that he looks fantastic, Julius Peppers could threaten the league lead in sacks and QB hurries.

He gets a new running mate on the other side, as the Bears let Israel Idonije depart. Idonije was a very effective foil to Peppers, but the team is confident that the combination of Corey Wootton and Shea McClellin can handle the challenge. Wootton is more one dimensional than Idonije, strictly a pass rusher, but he is a legit finisher in the backfield. Like Idonije and Peppers, Wootton is long and strong. He prefers to bull his way into the tackle and uses a variety of swims, dips, and grab-and-yank moves to get free. His closing burst is very strong. Durability and run defense are both significant concerns with Wootton, but that’s where McClellin comes in. Their first round pick in 2012, the Boise State product brings all kinds of versatility. He can play linebacker or end. The issue is figuring out which position better suits him, and the Bears have yet to figure that out. McClellin struggled to finish in the backfield, registering just three sacks despite over 20 pressures. Several time he got free but couldn’t gather himself to make the play. He also looked like an uncomfortable rookie when asked to read and react instead of just attacking. McClellin should improve in year two, and I expect him to play more snaps than Wootton going forward.

I like the deeper depth here. Veteran Turk McBride is a solid veteran who can play strongside end or slide inside as a nickel rushing tackle. He was a Rod Marinelli favorite, and losing his coaching patron means he will be pushed hard to make the team. Sixth round pick Cornelius Washington has the body of an airbrushed Greek god and incredible movement skills. If they can ever teach him how to play football, the Bears have a great value. Washington is one of the most passive players I’ve ever scouted, however. Journeyman Kyle Moore showed a little juice in Buffalo last year and brings maximum effort every snap. Even Cheta Ozougwu, the Mr. Irrelevant of the 2011 draft (by the Texans), has shown flashes of ability as a project. He’s quite similar to McClellin athletically but behind on the developmental curve. If he doesn’t make the Bears, expect to see him stick on another 53-man roster somewhere.

LB: It’s going to look a lot different without Brian Urlacher patrolling the middle. With #54 retiring after finding the market for his services decidedly underwhelming, the Bears will have a new starting middle linebacker for the first time in over a decade.

The task falls to DJ Williams, the troubled former Broncos backer. Williams missed nine games in 2012 thanks to two separate suspensions, one for a DUI and another for providing non-human urine to a drug screening. Denver felt he wasn’t worth the contract or the trouble and let him go. Chicago did well to pluck him off the scrap heap, as Williams should be at least as effective in 2013 as the rapidly declining Urlacher would have been. Williams has always been a rangy, instinctive backer with the ability to play any LB spot. But he last played in the middle in 2010, and the Broncos sought to replace him because even though he was still racking up tackles, Williams wasn’t making as many impact plays as he had earlier in his career. Yet I think Williams is a strong fit here. Like Urlacher, he’s proven his blitzing acumen and still roams well in coverage. He can still clean up tackles at the second level. Williams also has a chip on his shoulder, a desire to prove that the Broncos erred in giving up on him. Physically the Bears might have actually upgraded in moving from Urlacher to Williams. It’s the leadership presence and face of the franchise with a tricky, obsessive local media that Urlacher provided that cannot be replaced. 

Should Williams prove unable to rise to the occasion, Chicago has a Plan B with 2nd round pick Jon Bostic. The Florida product seems like a very smart fit and it’s more of a question of when, not if, he emerges as the starter. Bostic is a classic run-and-hit backer with a high football IQ and burning intensity. His eye discipline needs developing and he must finish plays more consistently, but Bostic is an important piece moving forward. Getting youthful reinforcements that can actually play is vital for the Bears, because venerable Lance Briggs is nearing the end of his illustrious career on the weak side. 

Don’t confuse “nearing the end” with ineffectiveness or a rush to replace Briggs, however, because he remains one of the best outside backers in the game. He’s been a better player than Urlacher for most of the last six years now. His amazing fluidity and near-flawless instincts have made Briggs a Pro Bowl fixture. He covers the short and intermediate zone as well as anyone, using his quickness and great closing ability very effectively. Briggs was a perfect fit at weakside backer in the Cover 2 scheme, and I strongly suspect the new coaching staff will try and keep his role similar going forward. They did draft the player they hope is Briggs’ eventual replacement in Khaseem Greene, a converted safety from Rutgers. He must play stronger and develop better eye discipline, but Greene can fly in open spaces. He also has a rare acumen for stripping the ball and forcing fumbles, something that no doubt endeared him to the Bears, who do that as a team better than anyone. Look for the fourth round pick to see action as a nickel backer and perhaps some hybrid LB/S role should new Coordinator Mel Tucker get creative.

Free agent James Anderson is a smart pickup on the strong side. Anderson racks up tackles and has solid coverage skills in the shorter zone. He’s a good fit in this defense as a reliable “cleaner” sort of backer, a player who won’t make many impact plays but keeps the opponent from getting them as well. Blake Costanzo provides depth, but he is on the roster strictly for his special teams work.

Secondary: Chicago has one of the best CB duos in the entire league with Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings. Both were perfect fits for Lovie Smith’s defense, but both should be able to transition just fine to new Defensive Coordinator Mel Tucker’s style as well. Jennings was outstanding last year, picking off nine passes, including eight in their first nine games. His fight/size of dog ratio is as good as any corner in the league, and few can match his aggressiveness in going after the ball. In addition to the nine picks, he also notched 21 PDs and drew four offensive pass interference penalties despite missing two games. It was a breakout campaign, one that will be difficult to reenact. Still, Jennings is in a contract year and doesn’t turn 30 until Christmas Eve, so a reasonably close effort is certainly a viable bet.

Tillman is also in a contract year. Even though he’s 32 and lacks long speed to track receivers down the field, Tillman remains an elite cover corner. He uses his length expertly, positioning his body and using his long arms to redirect receivers more consistently than any corner in the league. Nobody plays Calvin Johnson or Greg Jennings better, and that’s a quarter of the Bears schedule right there. Always physical and assertive in run support, Tillman punctuated last season with a league-high 10 forced fumbles. Nobody separates the football from the offense better than Peanut Tillman, and that ability permeates into the psyche of the opponent. Having two turnover production machines at corner is the most critical reason why the Bears won 10 games last season. Tillman and Jennings will have to come close to that level of production once again for the defense to work. 

The starting safeties also return for their third season together. Major Wright has emerged as a competent all-around strong safety. He’s at his best in the intermediate zone, reading and reacting to the play quickly and snuffing out runners and short passes. He struggles in deep coverage and is not a natural playmaker despite what the four INTs last season say. Wright led all Bears in defensive snaps and is the rare entrenched starter under 29 on this long-in-the-tooth D. Like both starting corners, Wright is in a contract year and is playing for his big payday. 

Chris Conte is the starting free safety, a role he’s held since halfway through the 2011 season. He infuriates Bears fans with his lack of reaction to the play and poor tackling, but he’s not as bad as most Chicagoans believe. The pressure is on Conte to take the next step in his development, and he’s flashed that potential from time to time. Playing more consistently and improving his positioning and tackling will go a long way in helping the overall defense. GM Phil Emery did bring in competition in the form of former Colt Tom Zbikowski, who is playing on his third team in three seasons for a reason. Ideally Zbikowski provides a quality presence as the third safety, but he is a lot like Conte in that he doesn’t react quickly to the action around him and lacks the great quickness and speed to compensate. 

There is some depth here, but for the most part it is higher on name recognition than actual NFL ability. Kelvin Hayden is solid against the run and opportunistic, but frequent injuries have robbed him of any coverage ability beyond about 8 yards. Oft-injured Zack Bowman has played his way down the depth chart and will have to earn his roster spot in camp. Sherrick McManus also wears the label of “frequently injured” at reserve corner. Undrafted rookie Demontre Hurst is almost painfully slow at times, but his physicality fits the Bears profile and he will get a chance to impress. At safety, Craig Steltz and Anthony Walters are both on thin ice after failing to show much. 2012 third round pick Brandon Hardin will handle the fourth safety role…if he is fully recovered from a broken neck. Notice a distinct theme here with the defensive depth?

Special Teams: For years the Bears have been (rightfully) identified as having elite special teams units. They still have excellent specialists in kicker Robbie Gould and punter Adam Podlesh, and the team ranked in the top 10 in both average offensive and defensive starting field position. That is a hidden advantage that really helps the Bears scoring defense, as teams have further to traverse to score thanks to Gould’s kicks and solid coverage units. Podlesh allowed fewer return yards than any other regular punter and pinned 34 kicks inside the 20. Gould did finish the season on IR with leg surgery, so it bears watching how well he gets back to his old self.

What has downgraded is the return game. Devin Hester is the greatest return man in NFL history, but in 2012 he was one of the least effective return men in the league. He failed to break a return longer than 40 yards and made a few terrible decisions on fielding balls deep. The magic can go away very quickly for return men, unfortunately. Hester’s roster spot is in real jeopardy if he cannot demonstrate that electricity once again. Eric Weems, who is excellent on coverage units, is a capable replacement. They have a new coordinator in Joe DeCamillis, who replaces the excellent Dave Toub. DeCamillis is no greenhorn, having a long history of producing strong NFL special teams units. 

Forecast: The Bears are a team in transition. After two straight years of horrible late-season collapses, the Lovie Smith era is over. Failing to make the playoffs after starting 7-3 two years in a row proved inexcusable. As much as I like to criticize Lovie, it wasn’t all his fault.

Now Marc Trestman takes over a team with the oldest defense in the league and significant questions on offense. Part of his appeal in returning to the NFL from Montreal in the CFL is Trestman’s creativity on offense and his ability to maximize talent. He must be able to draw upon that right away with enigmatic QB Jay Cutler and a patchwork line. Cutler is in a contract year, and he must give the Bears a strong reason to sign him to a fat new contract. He must get help from a receiver other than Brandon Marshall, the prospects of which are cloudy. The line must give him more of a fighting chance, another dicey prospect.

The key to any sort of playoff aspiration for the Bears is for the defense to remain great while the offense catches up. That will not be easy. The Bears are exceptional at forcing turnovers, but producing 44 of them once again is unrealistic, especially with an aging roster that lost its unquestioned leader in Brian Urlacher. Should Lance Briggs, Julius Peppers or Charles Tillman fall off because of age or get hurt, it could be catastrophic.

I also really don’t like the schedule. Their first four games all feature teams with very good defensive fronts that love to attack the passer: Cincinnati, Minnesota, at Pittsburgh and at Detroit. With a new offense in place and so many new faces on the line, I’m not optimistic. Their end of season schedule, with trips to improved Cleveland and Philly followed by a home finale against the very strong Packers, is more ominous than you like to see for a team prone to epic late-season collapses. This year I don’t think they get the chance to let the fans down come December; this Bears team will be out of contention much earlier this year. Barring a sensational season from Cutler and another 40+ turnovers forced by the defense, this is a last place team in the NFC North. Chicago falls to 5-11 in Trestman’s first season, leading to more radical changes next spring.