RealGM Analysis
2012 Record: 7-9
Point Differential: +7
Turnover Margin: +2
Sack Differential: -4
Offense
2012 Ranks
Rushing YPC: 13th
Passer Rating: 7th
3rd Down: 4th
Scoring: 3rd
QB: Few teams have the luxury of a quarterback as talented as Drew Brees. The venerable veteran is one of the most prolific passers in NFL history, and it’s not just raw, empty numbers. Brees continues to produce meaningful touchdowns while being the ringmaster of one of the most dangerous offenses the league has ever seen. No QB has ever thrown for more yards in two years than Brees has the last two seasons, nor his three-year total of over 15000 yards. To put that into context, Brees in three years has thrown from more than half the career yardage of Hall of Famer Troy Aikman.
I have some dichotomist thoughts on Brees heading into this season. Last year was a definite step back for Brees despite throwing for over 5000 yards. His completion percentage plummeted to 63 percent, the lowest of his Saints tenure. He missed some open receivers with deep throws and simply failed to see some potential big plays that he’s cashed in so frequently in the past. At 34, he’s still got a few good seasons left, but it’s not inconceivable that his career decline has begun. And because the Saints are so incredibly reliant upon Brees to orchestrate everything with the offense, any further erosion from Brees is a real problem. Yet last season could very easily be chalked up to not having Sean Payton around thanks to his Bountygate suspension. Payton is Jimmy Page to Brees’ Robert Plant (or Steven Tyler to his Joe Perry if you’re more of an Aerosmith fan, which I am).
The music analogy is especially apropos for New Orleans, the birthplace of so much great American music. Just as Jimmy Page was still very good in The Firm and a series of guest appearances, the song just wasn’t the same without Plant, and Brees just wasn’t the same without Payton. I think the reunion will reinvigorate Brees, who quite publicly rallied against the suspension. Many team observers believe Brees strung himself out too much trying to compensate for not having Payton, as well as the fatigue of spearheading the NFLPA negotiations, and both Brees and the team suffered as a result. Now those monkeys are off his back and it wouldn’t surprise me if Brees cranked out his best season yet as a result.
Brees no longer has Chase Daniel as an understudy, as his longtime backup fled to Kansas City in free agency. There is a camp competition to replace him between journeymen backups Seneca Wallace and Luke McCown. The latter has the advantage of being on the team in the past, albeit for a cup of coffee, and he has bigger arm. Wallace has some value for his mobility, which can emulate some of the read option looks in practice. Neither offers much of a chance to win games if forced to play more than a series or two, however. Keep an eye on the progress of rookie Ryan Griffin, an undrafted free agent from Tulane. He should stick on the practice squad, but if he impresses he could find himself holding the clipboard as a game-day active. I like his long-term potential just as much as I liked Daniel’s when he joined the team.
RB: It speaks to the Saints commitment to a true “backfield by committee” that former Heisman winner Mark Ingram, for whom the team traded a first round pick, sits third on the nominal depth chart. It’s not that Ingram has been all that bad either, though his inability to crack the 4.0 yards per carry barrier is disappointing. Ingram’s biggest issue is that he cannot make much happen at the second level, or even get to that second level when rushing inside the tackles. His pass blocking, where I’m not sure he knows he’s allowed to move his feet once engaged as a blocker, needs improvement as well.
Fortunately for New Orleans, they are not dependent upon Ingram to handle a heavy workload. Pierre Thomas gets his share of carries as well, and his superior receiving and pass protection skills keep him in the game in any situation. Thomas is an ideal jack-of-all/master-of-no traits type of backs, a solid runner both inside and outside. Like Ingram he lacks open field speed and elusiveness, but once again the Saints don’t need that from him either. That’s because Darren Sproles just might be the most elusive runner in open space in the entire league. The diminutive dynamo has been a huge part of the offense since coming over from San Diego and replacing Reggie Bush. Sproles actually catches the ball more than he runs it, and his 75 receptions come from all sorts of alignments. He can line up as the split back in the shotgun, or motion into or out of the slot, or start wide and take the jet sweep across or a quick bubble screen. His mere presence on the field dictates attention from the defense and opens up loads of other options for Brees to exploit.
The Saints don’t use a fullback all that often, but they have a good one in Jed Collins. He is of the sledgehammer lead blocker variety and could very well go the entire 2013 season without touching the football. Onetime preseason sensation Travaris Cadet serves as the 4th running back as Chris Ivory has now departed, and he could see Ivory’s 50 touches from last year in addition to his return specialist duties. He would see a lot more action on several other rosters, which speaks to the depth at running back here. The Saints have received numerous inquiries about trading one of their RBs but thus far seem quite content to keep the logjam of versatility and depth.
WR/TE: Much like the running backs, the Saints have a diverse and specialized cadre of weapons in the receiving game. They really only use three wideouts with any regularity: Lance Moore, Marques Colston and Devery Henderson. With Henderson now gone via free agency, New Orleans is perilously thin on experience in the offense. Moore works almost exclusively out of the slot, and he and Brees have a real chemistry and mind meld. He nicely blends precision with his routes and toughness to go across the middle. Last season saw Moore running deeper routes more frequently, and the result was his first 1000 yard receiving effort. Moore shattered his prior high in yards per reception by nearly four yards even though his YAC number was the second worst of his 8-year career. Some of that was compensating for the loss of Robert Meacham, but it was also a more concerted effort to attack deeper down the field. That sacrificed some completion percentage for Brees and catch percentage for Moore (a career low 62 percent) and it also, strangely, produced fewer touchdowns for Moore.
Colston remains one of the top red zone targets in the league. His length and power along the back of the end zone have proven to be lethal for years now. Colston is excellent at creating space for himself and a big target for Brees to strike. Two scores in the finale against Carolina earned Colston the franchise record for career TDs, and his next catch bests Eric Martin for the franchise reception mark. It’s fitting that Colston seizes that honor from Martin, who was similarly underappreciated by the general NFL fan. The Saints know what they’ve got, however, and Colston should continue to be an excellent target for Brees. Look for another season of around 80 receptions, 1100 yards, and 9 TDs, clockwork for Mr. Colston. It would be nice if he cut back on the fumbles and drops, both of which hit career highs last season.
The other wideouts on the roster last year accumulated just 16 receptions. Ten of those went to Joseph Morgan, but he parlayed those 10 receptions into an astonishing 379 yards and three touchdowns. He has the physical tools to handle the Henderson role of “go deep”, though he doesn’t have the refinements like changing speeds or using a forearm to subtly push off the corner. His maturity is also in question after an embarrassing DUI arrest during OTAs. Morgan could carve out an expanded role, but he will have to fight off rookie Kenny Stills. The eccentric Oklahoma product is a much more complete receiver, though he doesn’t have the vertical speed. Stills appears to be an excellent fit for the Saints offense, a nifty player capable of playing wide or in the slot. He’s a fantastic blocker and does all sorts of savvy little things that polished receivers do that never get noticed in the box score. While he doesn’t necessarily fill the Meacham or Henderson roles, expect Stills to emerge as the #3 pass catcher amongst wideouts. He makes a good dark horse rookie of the year candidate, particularly if Moore or Colston gets hurt. Second-year player Chris Givens (no, not that one) is also in the camp mix for a bigger role. This Givens is from Miami OH and missed his rookie season with an injury, something that also plagued him as a Redhawk. The team felt highly enough about him to bring him back for another look. He sits on the team’s depth chart well ahead of another 2012 rookie, 4th round pick Nick Toon, who also missed all of 2012 with an injury. Foot problems dogged Toon’s draft stock and those concerns appear validated; his roster spot is not a given.
No folks, I didn’t forget about Jimmy Graham. One of the best tight ends in the league, Graham has become Brees’ favorite go-to receiver. He has 184 catches for just under 2,400 yards and 20 touchdowns in the last two years. Consider his conversion from basketball forward to tight end complete. He’s a legit 6’7” and has plenty of speed to separate from linebackers, and his muscular 265+ pounds is too much for safeties to handle. In a league increasingly moving towards hyper athletic tight ends, Graham is the end result of what everyone else wants their lumps of clay to resemble as a finished product. His run blocking has improved steadily as well. It is worth noting that as Moore’s YPC increased, Graham’s decreased. I expect that to level back, but if Graham isn’t getting more downfield targets the Saints are wasting his full potential. I like that they brought in veteran Benjamin Watson as the second tight end. He offers a significant upgrade over Dave Thomas, who remains a street free agent as of July 15th. Watson is not going to stretch the field, but he is an accomplished possession receiver and red zone threat. He also brings a professional presence that could help mentor Graham into an even bigger monster.
OL: For a pass-heavy team, it’s surprising that the best players on the line are inside. That’s counterintuitive but it works for New Orleans. Center Brian De La Puente, right guard Jahri Evans, and left guard Ben Grubbs make a very effective interior force. De La Puente has quietly emerged as one of the best centers in the league, an exceptional run blocker with good leverage and excellent range out of the middle. The Saints patience in the former undrafted free agent has paid off handsomely. If he turns in another season like his 2012 campaign, De La Puente will be handsomely rewarded with a free agent deal as well.
Grubbs struck it rich when the team scrambled to fill the massive void left by the somewhat surprising departure of Carl Nicks. They did pretty well in Grubbs, the former Raven; he played every snap and was arguably just as good as Nicks was for Tampa Bay. He combines with De La Puente to create some huge interior running lanes, but what makes Grubbs special is his ability to get out in front of screens and tosses. He’s not the quickest guy but makes up for it by taking exceptional angles and getting out of his stance with a great first step. Evans is also in the midst of a massive contract for a guard; this year he costs just under $7M against the cap and that number goes up to well over $10M each of the next three years. He does give up more pressure on Brees than ideal, but his tenacity as a recovery blocker and Brees’ ability to slide around mitigates that problem. Daily team observers told me Evans’ play fell off as 2012 progressed, and that bears watching. If Evans is merely pretty good once again, he might be looking at a forced restructure next offseason, or worse. That is powerful incentive for a strong season and I expect Jahri Evans to deliver.
The tackles are the relative “problem” spots, particularly the left side where Charles Brown will take over from Jermon Bushrod. Brown has played well in spots but has proven inconsistent in his first three years. He’s also been a chronic fixture on the injury report, and injuring his back in non-contact drills during OTAs doesn’t exactly breed confidence. Brown has shown he is light on his feet and can kickslide quite well, but he sorely lacks sand in the pants. Because the Saints don’t quite trust Brown, they imported former Rams bust Jason Smith and also drafted Terron Armstead in the second round this April. Smith strikes me as nothing more than a look/see reclamation project, but Armstead offers definite intrigue. The Arkansas-Pine Bluff product flat out dominated the Shrine Game workouts with his powerful punch, excellent footwork, and good vision. He looked just as good as Lane Johnson during Senior Bowl workouts the next week as well. It might take him some time to adjust to the bigger/faster/stronger defenders in the NFL, but he appears to be the future at one of the tackle spots. Don’t be surprised if Armstead is starting over Brown or holdover right tackle Zach Strief by the end of the 2013 season. Strief is one of those right tackle anomalies that is a better pass protector than run blocker, so if Armstead shows proficiency at creating movement in the run game he could wind up seeing action on the right side. Like Brown, Strief is in the last year of his contract and the Saints are not going to be able to afford to keep both. That situation should make for a spirited competition at the tackle spots this summer. Hopefully the result is forged steel and not shattered glass.
There is absolutely no depth inside, which means the starters will have to play every single snap once again. Should any injuries happen to the guards or center, the first man up figures to be practice squad regular Eric Olsen, a college center (Notre Dame) that has a little experience at guard. If a starter needs long-term replacing, look for GM Mickey Loomis to surf the veteran street free agent market. Jason Smith’s best chance to stick is as the fourth tackle, and he wasn’t terrible with the Jets last year on the right side.
Defense
2012 Ranks
Rushing YPC: 32nd
Passer Rating: 28th
3rd Down: 16th
Scoring: 31st
I’m going to deviate from the format here to handle the Saints defense. New Orleans surrendered more yards than any team in NFL history a year ago, which led to a radical overhaul. The Saints will now deploy am aggressive, variable 3-4 scheme led by new Coordinator Rob Ryan. This replaces the milquetoast, predictable 4-3 scheme from Steve Spagnuolo, who cobbled that together out of the ashes of Bountygate propagator Gregg Williams’ suspension.
Let’s just say it’s a very good thing the Saints have a potent offense, because this defense has a very real chance to be historically bad. They could very easily lead the league in yards allowed once again, but this year they look to also allow more points than any other team. Giving up 30 points a game--which they would have done last year if not for an inexplicable shutout vs. the Bucs late--is a very realistic probability.
It starts with Ryan. His name value and sizzle factor belie his actual on-field results. Ryan has lorded over some of the worst, and most disappointing, defenses of the past few years. He hasn’t led a defense to a higher rating than 22nd in passing since 2006, and Ryan has been continuously employed by the Raiders, Browns, and Cowboys in that time period. His ranks in scoring defense, going backwards from last season in Dallas: 24th, 16th, 13th, 21st, 24th, 26th, 18th, 25th, 31st. Not exactly an impressive track record. No team he’s been a part of as a coordinator has ever finished with a winning record, either.
Ryan’s biggest issue is a lack of situational restraint and awareness. As I’ve said in the past, Ryan always wants the full hot fudge sundae with sprinkles and whip cream and bananas and caramel and a cherry on the top when sometimes the situation calls for a scoop of vanilla. He has lined up 8 in the box and blitzed both safeties on 3rd and 16. He has sent overload blitzes from the side of a trips receiver formation. He routinely positions his safeties underneath and isolates his corners with zero deep help. He has done all these things and much more with significantly more talented rosters than he’s got here in New Orleans and has not succeeded.
Ryan’s over baked scheming with this personnel is a recipe for epic disaster. The Saints best pass rusher is Will Smith, an underwhelming sack producer as a 4-3 end who is absolutely not built to play standing up in a 3-4. They tried to bring in Victor Butler along from Dallas but he’s already lost for the season with an ACL injury from OTAs. Martez Wilson showed some acumen as a nickel rusher and was actually a linebacker at Illinois, but his inability to handle positional responsibility has kept him in a limited role. Perhaps he will flourish under Ryan; he certainly has physical talent. But expecting a great leap to even eight sacks is a lot for a guy with 29 tackles and four sacks in two years. Junior Gallette bagged five sacks and offers exactly what Ryan treasures off the edge, namely initial burst and relentless energy. Like Wilson, he can lack overall focus. One of those two will start, but look for both to see significant action. If the Saints are lucky they combine for 11.5 sacks and 3 forced fumbles, or roughly what Cliff Avril does every year. That’s not exactly DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer here, folks…
Changing to the 3-4 might help the run defense, but it likely takes away from Cam Jordan’s ability to produce sacks. He bagged eight last year, but matching that from a wider 5-technique will be difficult. Pro Football Focus rated Jordan one of the least efficient pass rushers in the league in spite of those eight sacks. Akiem Hicks can anchor but seldom ventured into the opposing backfield as a rookie. Nose tackle is an open audition. Hicks will likely see some action there, as will 3rd round rookie John Jenkins and perhaps practice squad member Tyrunn Walker. Career tackles for loss, QB pressures, and sacks: zero.
One of the axioms of football is that if you don’t have a good pass rush, you’d better have a very good secondary. Unfortunately for New Orleans the pass rush looks a lot better than the secondary. Conventional wisdom dictates that it can’t get any worse, and personnel wise the Saints made a couple of nice upgrades in corner Keenan Lewis and 1st round pick Kenny Vaccaro. Lewis comes from Pittsburgh, where he played in a blitz happy 3-4 scheme. That experience should serve Lewis well and he can hopefully impart some valuable knowledge on his secondary mates. At the very least he bumps down Patrick Robinson a peg on the depth chart, and that’s most definitely a positive. Simply put, Robinson cannot be trusted to stay between his receiver and the end zone on either short or long routes. His inability to do so really stresses the safeties and made both Malcolm Jenkins and Isa Abdul Quddus look foolish at times. Jenkins, who is a better player than he looked last year, often cheated a step or two to help with Robinson or Johnny Patrick, another overdrafted defensive back that the Saints finally kicked to the curb. His missed tackling is a very real problem, but his cover skills should rebound some with more competence at corner.
Vacarro is the shining ray of hope for the secondary. He is a cover safety with a lot of experience lining up in man coverage over the slot receiver, and he possesses great twitchiness. He also reads plays well pre-snap, though there is an alarming amount of game tape where Vaccaro is unexpectedly passive off the snap. I understand why Saints fans are boldly optimistic about Vaccaro and his impact on the defense, but I caution them to remember a very similar player from Texas: Michael Griffin. If they don’t know about Griffin, ask Titans fans. I do like the concept of Vaccaro playing the “heavy nickel” role and getting the aging Roman Harper off the field on passing downs. It mitigates the cliff after Robinson on the corner depth chart if nothing else.
This is where the Ryan factor kicks in. No Defensive Coordinator asks his safeties and corners to survive in more exposed situations than Rob Ryan, with the possible exception of his twin brother Rex. And because the linebackers here in New Orleans aren’t very good in coverage, any team with a halfway competent tight end and/or quick slot receiver is going to carve them apart. Remember that the Saints also ranked dead last in opposing yards per carry a year ago, so they need help beyond just coverage. For as stout as Curtis Lofton is as an inside backer, he made precious few downhill plays and missed too many tackling opportunities. The Saints quickly learned why the rival Falcons were content to let him walk, as he is stiff in coverage and just doesn’t make the kind of impact plays needed more frequently. David Hawthorne is best suited as a reserve backer, versatile enough to play any spot with reasonable competence for a half or so but not good enough to merit fulltime starting status. Jonathan Vilma was misfit in New York’s 3-4 and that was back when he had functional knees. A couple of rookies, Chase Thomas and Kevin Reddick, do provide some depth going forward. Interestingly I evaluated both as “stiff” and “straight-linish” in pre-draft film work, though I do think Reddick can be pretty effective in the box and as a blitzer up the gut. But the larger point is that the linebacking corps is unlikely to fit Ryan’s complex, creative scheme all that well.
Special Teams: The Saints are in good, not great, shape on these units. Punter Thomas Morstead is one of the best in the business, a master of directional spotting with plus hang time. Morstead helped the Saints lead the league in net punting. He’s also a hidden weapon on kickoffs, where he ranks near the top in return yards allowed. Kicker Garrett Hartley had some bad misses a year ago; he was better from beyond 50 yards (3-for-4) than he was from 30-39 yards (4-for-6). If he struggles again he could get a midseason yank, though he faces nominal competition in camp. Travaris Cadet and Darren Sproles are both strong return options, with Cadet primarily handling kickoffs and Sproles on display on punts. Wideout Courtney Roby exists on the team solely for his special teams work, and the depth across the defense performs well in cover units.
Forecast: Points. Lots of points. That is the primary forecast model for both the Saints' offense and efense this season. The only real question is how frequently the offense will be able to score more than the copious amount the defense surrenders. Given the return of Sean Payton to be the guiding force of the offense and his restorative and rejuvenating powers for Drew Brees, I think the offense will be good enough to carry the defense. There will be a handful of weeks where the defense produces a key turnover or two, and their special teams are strong enough to steal another win as well. Their schedule can provide a real early confidence boost as well; beat the Falcons in New Orleans in the opener and the Saints could very easily hit their Week 7 bye with at least five wins. They figure to be heavy favorites in the first three games after the bye as well. I see them splitting a late pair with Carolina and conquering the Bucs in the finale. That’s 11 wins, good enough for a return trip to the playoffs. And as many teams have proven lately, a hot quarterback can win any playoff game.
