2012 Record: 4-12

Point Differential:    -153  

Turnover Margin:   -7       

Sack Differential: -2

Offense

2012 Ranks

Rushing YPC: 27th  

Passer Rating: 18th            

3rd Down: 26th         

Scoring: 26th 

QB: Exit Carson Palmer, enter Matt Flynn. Even though Palmer was wrongly scapegoated as being too much of the problem, the Raiders made a sound financial and rebuilding move by dispatching him and trading for Matt Flynn. Their styles are quite divergent. Flynn is short and lacks the downfield arm of Palmer, but he has some agility and plays with a great deal of energy and bounce to his step. He has proven he can learn systems quickly and makes good decisions with the ball. There’s a reason Seattle sought him out from Green Bay.

Ah yes, last year in Seattle. It was supposed to be the Matt Flynn show, but a funny little thing named Russell Wilson dashed those plans. Flynn gets a nice second chance here in Oakland, and he has the mental toughness to turn last year’s downer into a driving force. Unfortunately for Flynn, he might have jumped into the same situation with the Raiders. For they have a rookie gunslinger in Tyler Wilson who threatens to take away his chance to start once again. The rookie from Arkansas was the big hit of OTAs, and that is not a fluke. Even though he fell to the fourth round, some evaluators had Wilson as the best quarterback in the draft. The arm talent is vastly superior to Flynn, able to fit balls into tight windows well down the field. His trust in that arm doesn’t always benefit Wilson, however; he is prone to poor mechanics and makes some ponderous decisions because he believes he can do anything. There is also a history of concussions, some of which stems from a rather alarming propensity to hold the ball too long. It will be very interesting to see how the QB battle shakes out in camp. Flynn is fated as nothing more than an average starter, a rhythm passer who can move the chains and not lose games. Wilson is the kind of QB that can win games for a team but also lose them and lose them badly. 

And then there’s Terrelle Pryor, the freakishly athletic lump of clay that perhaps best embodies the sad legacy of the end of the Al Davis era. Here’s what you need to know about Pryor as a passer: the Raiders so badly lacked confidence in his ability that instead of giving him the ball when Palmer got hurt, they opted for the waste of roster space that was Matt Leinart ahead of him. Pryor finally got the start in the meaningless finale and produced the sort of line that reaffirmed the decision to play Leinart, completing less than half his passes, often missing open receivers, but showing just enough creativity to produce two touchdowns over one interception in a loss to a bad Chargers team playing to get their coach fired.

RB: The once-promising hype surrounding Darren McFadden is all but gone, as injuries and ineffectiveness have tarnished his luster. Last season was nothing short of abysmal: four games missed, 3.3 yards per carry, converting 1st downs on just 11 of his 42 receptions, and as many lost fumbles (2) as touchdowns. He was a terrible fit in the new zone blocking scheme, which has been scrapped. That breeds optimism that the McFadden that averaged 5.3 yards per carry over 2010-11 can resurface. I share that optimism; things can only get better. The open field jets are still there and he’s still a load of knees and shoulders to tackle. However, McFadden has never played more than 13 games in a year. Even though his career workload is surprisingly light, just 769 carries in five years, he’s proven too fragile to use extensively. That means depth is important.

The depth behind McFadden has changed. Rashad Jennings takes over as the #2, though he is coming off an even more brutal season than McFadden. In fact, Jennings’ 2.2 yards per carry for Jacksonville is one of the worst in NFL history for a back with at least 100 carries. Like McFadden, he had been much more effective than that in prior years so there is reason to think he can make a triumphant recovery. Jennings has good power and leg drive, a nice inside complement to McFadden’s outside game. He’s also a good receiver out of the backfield. Oakland drafted Latavius Murray in the 6th round and he brings some intrigue to the position. He’s a big back at 6’2” and 228 pounds but he clocked a legit 4.38 40 time and an amazing 6.8 3-cone drill. One NFL scout referred to him as a “speed fullback” and he has enough receiving skills to handle playing a H-back role. His ball security makes him a welcome addition from Taiwan Jones, though his stiff, upright running style make him an injury worry. Jeremy Stewart showed some spark in a late-season cup of coffee after being a practice squad fixture. Marcel Reece returns as the fullback, and he’s a good one. Aside from his 271 rushing yards, Reece is a very good pass protector. He is an excellent example of why teams need to be patient with players, as he bounced around practice squads before latching on and proving himself in Oakland.

WR/TE: There are a whole lot more questions than answers here. Denarius Moore is ostensibly the #1 receiver, yet he catches just about 45% of the balls thrown his way, a terrible number. He was a revelation as a rookie downfield threat but struggled when pressed into a greater role last year. Moore lost his effectiveness on deeper throws, and he’s not the polished route runner on shorter options to compensate. Just out of necessity Moore should top last year’s career highs in receptions (51), yards (741) and hopefully match the touchdown production (7). Denarius Moore is a solid piece but not the top threat the Raiders are asking him to be. A return to health by Jacoby Ford would certainly help both Moore and the Raiders offense. That is a precarious proposition, as Moore has missed 24 of the last 30 games with Lisfranc injuries. If his feet are right, Ford is a dynamic receiver with soft hands and excellent YAC ability. He has a real knack for creating separation with a combination of quickness and changing gears, attributes that serve him very well once the ball is in his hands too. He sat out OTAs in early June, which is more precautionary than anything but it’s worth noting he’s never been on the field under Coach Dennis Allen. If Ford is healthy the offense looks a lot better. 

Rod Streater caught 39 passes as an undrafted free agent last season. He’s a tremendous athlete, a former high jumper at 6’3” that can run a sub 4.4 40 time. Streater looked better as a receiver in Oakland than he ever did in college, more willing to go over the middle than expected. He did have some drops and needs work at getting a cleaner release at times. Streater is a worthwhile project learning on the fly. I don’t expect him to catch more than 40 passes, but he should continue to improve as a blocker and route runner as he gains experience. Big Juron Criner, a player I expected to have Streater’s role as a rookie last year, failed to click with Palmer and got bypassed. He lacks great burst but presents a wide target. At worst he should stick around as a possession receiver. Beyond Criner there is a cadre of street and undrafted free agents hoping to catch a break. Bryce Butler, the team’s 7th round pick, is eminently redundant with Criner and they are likely competing for the same role. Of the depth group I like Sam McGuffie from Rice to stick as a jack of all trades and special teams force, though he has battled numerous injury issues. Josh Cribbs was signed for his special teams work, not his meager receiving skills.

Last year’s leading receiver was tight end Brandon Myers, who left for greener pastures. Myers was an incredibly reliable pass catcher but an incredibly abysmal blocker, and he lacked vertical speed. Now the Raiders are attempting to replace his production with David Ausberry (seven catches for 92 yards) and Richard Gordon (two catches for nine yards). Both have good size but don’t offer much speed or separation skills as receivers. Ausberry has at least shown to be a solid in-line blocker. They could be challenge by a pair of rookies. Sixth round pick Nick Kasa is essentially the anti-Myers. A converted defensive end, Kasa is already a very good blocker but raw as a receiver. If his learning curve is quick, Kasa could wind up seeing a lot of action as a rookie and safety valve, but the Raiders cannot expect immediate returns on him. Fellow 6th rounder Mychal Rivera is the opposite, a worthless blocker but a nice little weapon in the seam. He is the “supersized WR-as-TE” type and could find an early home as the motion TE and bigger slot receiver. Both rookies have significantly more potential than the veteran holdovers.

OL: After a dismal one-year trial with a zone blocking scheme, the Raiders are poised to switch back to a more conventional base blocking style. That should help the meek running offense. How much it helps depends on how well guys like Stefan Wisniewski and Tony Bergstrom handle the new style. 

Wisniewski is the starting center, and he’s a solid one. Not exceptional, not Pro Bowl worthy, just solid. He’s feisty while also technically proficient, and he can quick set against interior blitzers and DL gimmicks quite well. Wisniewski doesn’t get much movement as a run blocker, however. Bergstrom holds the left guard spot with the departure of Cooper Carlisle. He’s a 27-year-old entering his second season and didn’t play much as a 3rd round rookie. Coming out of Utah I had him pegged as a pass blocking specialist with leverage issues, and the little I saw in 2012 confirmed those suspicions. Perhaps he will get more physical and learn to sink his hips while engaged, but that’s asking a lot of an older dog. 

The gem of the line is Jared Veldheer, who has quietly developed into one of the best pass blocking left tackles in football. Oakland had a very impressive sack rate as an offensive line last year and the 6’8” Veldheer had a lot to do with that. He has a keen understanding of how to use his length on the edge. Even if beaten around the corner, his corner is so wide that it gives the QB an extra count to get rid of the ball. Velhdeer doesn’t run block all that effectively, a function of often being 5-8” taller than the man he’s trying to leverage. Letting him go more smashmouth off the snap can only help here. 

The right side of the line has some camp competition. Khalif Barnes is penciled in at right tackle, but he will have to fend off second round pick Menelik Watson. Barnes should win the job if he can limit the false start penalties and blown assignments. He often looked lost in the zone scheme looking for a target, but the former Jaguar held up pretty well against the edge rushers. Watson brings a more intriguing back story than actual football talent. He’s 24 and British, a converted basketball player from Marist who matriculated to Florida State and wound up parlaying one year of moderately successful BCS football into being a top 50 draft pick. That speaks to his athletic potential, though he bombed in Combine drills. New OL Coach Tony Sparano has his work cut out for him with Watson. Look for Barnes to start early but for Watson to get a series or two each game, perhaps more if he learns quickly on the fly.

Right guard is the biggest weak point. Former Texan Mike Brisiel was imported for his experience in the zone scheme but was terrible. Never noted for having much ability to anchor against pass rushers, Brisiel struggled to seal creases in the run game and committed a host of penalties. He will have to beat out Lucas Nix, an undrafted rookie a year ago who didn’t see the field until the final game despite the struggles of the guards ahead of him. This will be a case of the lesser of two evils winning out and figures to remain a sore spot. Perhaps undrafted rookie Lamar Mady from Youngstown State, who has some impressive college game film, will emerge as a pleasant surprise, though his destiny appears the practice squad for 2013. 

Defense

2012 Ranks

Rushing YPC: 19th  

Passer Rating: 30th            

3rd Down: 19th         

Scoring: 28th

DL: Salary cap woes forced a devastation of the depth chart all over the defense, but no group was more impacted than the front line. Only Lamarr Houston remains from what was once a pretty solid line. He will be joined by a cadre of veteran street free agents and lower-rung youngsters destined for journeyman status if they’re fortunate. Houston is listed atop the depth chart at end but he has ability to play both inside and outside. His progression is the key to any hope the Raiders have of concocting a legitimate pass rushing threat. He produced 4.5 sacks last season but also generated an impressive 35 QB hurries. Houston has excellent quickness for a 300 pounder and excels at getting under the chest pads of the blocker and breaking free. Not only did he lead the Raiders in sacks last year, he’s also led the entire league in solo tackles for defensive ends. Houston is the closest thing the Raiders have to a young franchise player on defense, but his ceiling tops out at no more than 7.5 sacks and about as many tackles (67) as he notched last year.

Vance Walker, Jason Hunter and Pat Sims all landed in Oakland after being let go by Atlanta, Denver, and Cincinnati respectively. Each is ideally the top reserve at their positions, not starting. Hunter missed last season with a torn triceps. He’s 30 and has never been more than a short-term injury fill in or deep rotational player in any of his stops. In 88 career games he has 11 sacks, half of which came on the miserable 2009 Lions. That was a function of opportunity, and Hunter could conceivably match that here for the same reason, but he should not be any higher than fourth on the DE depth chart. Expect him to rotate at right end with Jack Crawford, the team’s fifth round pick last year. Active for just four games as a rookie, the British national is still learning how to play football.

Crawford presents an excellent height/strength/speed package but it’s very raw in terms of football ability. He’s a delightful interview and a bright guy, but unless he learns some eye discipline and to keep his pads down and his knees bent, he’s not going to do much in the NFL. Long in the tooth veteran Kevin Carter will back up Houston and play when Houston slides inside as well. He netted 2.5 sacks in limited duty and can still turn the corner pretty well for a 34-year-old. He’s got enough left in the tank to contribute at that level again, and he’s valuable as a mentor for Crawford as well as rookie David Bass, who will be given every chance to earn significant reps. Bass was the best pass rusher during Shrine Week, showing he could hang with the (mostly) big boys after coming out of Missouri Southern. He’s got great length and athleticism along with very active eyes. There is definitely a learning curve but Bass was a very worthwhile seventh round investment that could pay nice dividends in the next few seasons. Still, don’t expect a lot as a rookie.

Walker and Sims will be the starting tackles. Sims brings some functional beef to the inside. He was more a victim of a numbers game in Cincinnati than being sent packing for lack of skill. He is very limited as a pass rusher but will hold ground vs. the run effectively. Walker set a career high with 3 sacks in Atlanta last year and has some ability to penetrate into the backfield. He’s been a solid, responsible run defender as an “under” tackle but never really developed into the player the Falcons hoped. He gets a chance here in Oakland and he is a decent gamble if you’re looking for an unexpected breakout player on this roster. However, he has a finite ceiling and is best served playing as the third tackle in a rotation. The rotation mate here is Canadian import Christo Bilukidi, who earned more reps as his rookie season progressed thanks to boundless energy and effort. He’s a heck of an athlete and his 83” wingspan commands attention, but his skills are quite raw. Rookie Stacy McGee, the sixth round pick from Oklahoma, will spell Sims on the nose. I’ll be honest here; I’ve never scouted any of the players competing for the other spot(s) in camp, an indication of just how dire the depth is with the Raiders.

LB: Just as with the line, years of bad personnel decisions and bad contracts have ravaged the Raiders here. Castoffs Kaluka Maiava, Nick Roach, and Kevin Burnett enter camp atop the depth chart. Burnett is the cream of that crop. The victim of a youth movement in Miami, Burnett brings leadership and all-around competence to the weakside position. He’s definitely an upgrade in coverage and has proven he can blitz with some alacrity in the past. He’s 32 and has already played his best football but Burnett is far from done and represents a very nice signing by GM Reggie McKenzie. 

Roach is a stopgap bridge on the strong side. He knows his assignments and won’t get the team killed, but he’s an average NFL player on his best day. Maiava comes from Cleveland, where he was a part-time player despite being a starter at both outside spots. He was a misfit in the Browns new 3-4, and Oakland will draw upon his experience and fairly decent cover skills. Like Roach, he’s smaller than ideal and not a dynamic athlete or tackler. He’s still more famous for being the nephew of Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson than for his football career, and he made news on the day I’m writing this for an arrest involving an assault at a bar fight. Somewhere Al Davis smiles…

The top reserve is Miles Burris, a rocked-up 2012 rookie who finished second on the team in tackles. Expect to see Burris on the field as much as any starter, as he was a starter last year almost by default. Burris is a bruising tackler with excellent short area burst and decent long speed. He has the ability to play any LB spot, which makes him a very valuable and versatile player. Unfortunately his rookie year was not that impressive despite the high tackling numbers. Burris looked lost in pass coverage and had a real problem avoiding lead blockers. Many of his tackles were of the “second guy in” variety. If he wants to remain a starter Burris needs to initiate more tackles closer to the line. I like his upside and the Raiders would be wise to give him every chance to beat out Maiava or Roach. Rookie third rounder Sio Moore figures to see a lot of action as a pass rush specialist. He’s a thumper, like Burris a very impressive physical specimen and big-time hitter. Moore has enough experience rushing the passer that he might merit a look as a defensive end in nickel packages. He will be starting for this team sooner than later and offers a higher impact ceiling than Burris. Lanky practice squadder Kaelin Burnett has the best chance to earn the other reserve spot as Travis Goethel is still recovering from a late-season ACL tear.

Secondary: This unit is going to look a lot different, but for once the change is almost certainly for the better here. Tyvon Branch, the best player on the unit last year, is the only returning starter. Branch is wildly overpaid and that overshadows the fact he’s a pretty solid football player. He’s positionally smart and versatile, having played both corner and safety. His ability to match up with tight ends (he shut down Rob Gronkowski once upon a time) and has very natural man cover skills. Branch tackles like a safety, using his six-foot, 210 pound frame well. Last season he got worn down as the season progressed and the losses piled up. That’s why the massive influx around him should push Branch into legit Pro Bowl consideration, assuming the on-field results match the name value with the imports.

Charles Woodson’s return to Oakland is the biggest splash. Unfortunately it’s not the same Woodson that left a few years ago; his rapid decline over the past two seasons made him eminently expendable by the Packers. The hope is that he can coax one more season as a hybrid free safety/slot nickel corner and get by enough on savvy and intimidation factor. Woodson’s range has really fallen off and he’s missing way too many tackles to be relied upon heavily anymore. I like the concept of the former Raider returning “home” to finish a great career, and the nod to the fan base is worth a few missed tackles and defensive holding penalties along the way.

First round pick DJ Hayden is being counted on to start immediately. It’s a risky proposition considering he has yet to get fully cleared for contact after a near-fatal arterial injury last year at the University of Houston. The doctors approved him continuing his football career, but several teams were sufficiently spooked even though the odds of a reinjury are allegedly quite long. If he can overcome the mental hurdle of full contact on the field, the Raiders got themselves a legit playmaker with potential shutdown corner ability. Hayden is feisty, aggressive and has exceptional timing with the ball in the air. Older Raiders fans will see shades of Mike Haynes, a ballhawk with great size and natural instincts. I’m not saying Hayden is bound for a Hall of Fame career, but it’s a demonstration of just how much the Raiders coveted him that they were fully prepared to take him with the third overall pick before trading back.

The other outside starter will be former Cowboy Mike Jenkins. Inconsistency forced him in and out of the Dallas starting lineup, and the Cowboys tired of waiting for him to regain his 2009 form, where he was one of the best corners in the NFC. At his best, Jenkins is very alert in man coverage and uses great speed and positioning to make life difficult for receivers. Unfortunately he guesses too much and plays soft. He’s a worthwhile gamble as a reclamation project. Former Saints Super Bowl hero Tracy Porter fits that bill as well as the new slot corner, if for nothing more than giving Peyton Manning recurring nightmares twice a year. In fact, he comes off an injury-plague year as Manning’s teammate in Denver. Assuming good health, the Raiders have the potential to field a decent secondary that can make some plays.

This is also far and away the deepest unit on the team. While the backups may not be of high quality, at least guys like Usama Young, Reggie Smith, and Joselio Hanson all have experience and were once starters elsewhere. It will be interesting to see if any of the youngsters in camp can jump over any of these guys as part of a youth movement. Notable in that group is Taiwan Jones, who flopped as a running back but is rebranding himself as a corner. He certainly has the long speed and twitchiness to pull it off, and he has proven on special teams he isn’t afraid of contract, but there is more to coverage than looking the part. 

Special Teams: Venerable Sebastian Janikowski still has one of the biggest legs in the NFL; the fact that it’s plausible he could even attempt a 65+ yard field goal demonstrates just how much of a weapon he can be. He didn’t miss a kick under 53 yards and nailed a game-winner over the Steelers on the last play of the game, proving he is actually more reliable in the clutch now than he used to be. He’s also a real asset on kickoffs. Losing Shane Lechler, the greatest punter in NFL history, is going to hurt even though he had a down year (for Lechler) in 2012. The unenviable task of replacing a man who should be a legend falls to Chis Kluwe, who is more notable for his controversial verbosity on issues than his punting acumen. If the Kluwe that was in Minnesota last year shows up in Oakland, they’ll be auditioning street free agents on the bye week.

The Raiders signed free agent Josh Cribbs to bolster both the return game and the cover units. Former NFL GM and Sirius radio host Pat Kirwan has called Cribbs “the best special teams player in league history”, and he still has impact talent. He’s coming off a down year himself as a return man, but few have ever had his vision or balance while at top speed. He and Taiwan Jones should be fantastic together on cover units. Long snapper Jon Condo is one of the best in the business. These units are strong enough to steal a win or two on their own.

Forecast: This franchise in in the throes of a major overhaul the likes of which have rarely been seen in professional sports. Not only is there great turnover on the roster, but the cultural sea change from the sad of the “Just Win Baby” Al Davis era into the modern world of hard salary caps, analytics, and efficiency on the field is as shocking to the Raiders organization as the Arab Spring has been to Libya and Egypt. With major change comes heavy losses, and unfortunately the Raiders are not done taking those losses. This roster very strongly resembles what a modern expansion team would look like, stocked with journeymen, castoffs, and marginal young talent punctuated by an occasional bright spot. No more than eight Raiders would start on any other team, period, and there are some pretty bad rosters out there too.

So how bleak will it be? Because the secondary and special team should be decent and the offensive line can protect the QB, Oakland will be able to hang in with a lot of teams. If they can force turnovers and get a couple of breaks here and there, the fluky upset (like last year vs. Pittsburgh) is likely to happen once or twice. I’ll give them a split with division rivals San Diego and Kansas City and somehow find two other wins on the schedule. Oakland repeats their 4-12 finish from a year ago and winds up drafting in the top-three once again.