Last Week: 14-2. That’s 29-3 the last two weeks! Season forecast is now 133-59. Once again, think fondly of me when you win your office pools. Thursday Night Cleveland (26) at Pittsburgh (3): I have already planned some alternate activities to do while using this game as background noise for my Thursday night. I plan on alphabetizing my CD collection, which I’ve neglected since Metallica’s Death Magnetic came out. I will finish my Christmas shopping for my wife if I can ever figure out the sizing charts for women’s clothing. My collection of holiday Snoopy plates needs cleaning, so I can polish that off. I might even break out the Home Brazilian Waxing kit I got as a gag gift a couple years ago. It can’t be any more painful than watching the toothless Browns offense against the Steel Curtain defense, right? Steelers roll in a 30-6 yawner. Sunday Best Oakland (14) at Green Bay (1): This is the only game of the weekend with two division leaders (okay, technically the Raiders are tied) facing off. It also represents a fairly credible challenge to the Packers in their quest for perfection. Or rather, the Raiders looked like they could pose a credible threat before last week, when they laid a giant egg in getting routed by the Dolphins. Oakland has stopped running the ball since Darren McFadden got hurt, rushing almost 7 carries per game fewer than when Run DMC was playing. That puts more of the offense on Carson Palmer, who has always been a more effective QB when less is demanded of him. Palmer has been pretty good but he still throws too many interceptions, and nobody picks off errant passes better than the Packers. Still, I think the Raiders have a shot. Green Bay gives up yards by the truckload, and with Charles Woodson woozy and both starting inside backers real iffy that doesn’t look to change. The loss of Woodson is huge, because he provides the big plays when they are most needed and is the one reliable cog in the Green Bay secondary. The Packers are very good at producing turnovers to get stops, but without Woodson that is a questionable skill. Oakland has the special teams that can make a difference, with the bets punter in league history in Shane Lechler and the best long-distance kicker since Morten Andersen in Sebastian Janikowski, plus a solid return game and coverage units. And Aaron Rodgers is coming off his worst game of the season, albeit hindered by a raging case of the dropsies by Jermichael Finley and friends. If this game was two weeks ago and in Oakland I would like the Raiders to pull the upset. But after the wakeup call from the Giants last week, the Packers return home focused and determined to keep their magical season unblemished. Oakland will struggle to keep it interesting unless Carson Palmer has a great day. Packers 34, Raiders 20. The Rest Houston (7) at Cincinnati (13): Andy Dalton, meet the rookie wall. Cincy’s young quarterback has stagnated recently, and it doesn’t figure to get any better against one of the best pass defenses in the league. Houston made Matt Ryan look positively putrid last week, and they are so good at bringing pressure from different places that it is very hard to get into a comfortable rhythm against them. I like the Bengals OL, but they struggled against Pittsburgh. The Steelers run a similar sort of defense to Houston, and the Texans are acutely aware that their defense needs to carry the day. Last week was the first time where I really saw Dalton lose composure during plays, and I don’t think it will be much easier for him this week. But he does have a playmaker in AJ Green and the comfort of playing at home. The Texans will do their best to make this game as short and painless as possible. Expect a whole lot of Arian Foster and Ben Tate, with TJ Yates throwing just enough to keep the defense honest. Andre Johnson appears to be a no-go once again, so the Houston passing offense is a 3rd string rookie QB missing the only wideout that scares the defense. Yates does have some options with Owen Daniels and Joel Dreessen, but I suspect the Bengals will make him prove he can beat them over the top before dropping the safeties out of the box. Frequent readers know I’m more bullish on Yates than most people, but even I question how well he can operate in that situation. Lost in Arian Foster’s big day was that Houston really didn’t run the ball all that effectively last week; it took 42 carries by Foster and Tate to produce 152 yards, and they gained less than three yards on 29 of those carries. Offensive inefficiency on the road is a recipe for failure, and the Bengals strong defense makes a dramatic improvement unlikely. Bengals 17, Texans 14. NY Giants (12) at Dallas (15): One of these teams will leave Jerry’s World feeling great going forward, with the NFC East within their own destiny. The other will feel sullen, desperate, and drooling the spittle of regret into the pillow of remorse. Both of these teams are inconsistent and very difficult to get a handle on. The difference to me is that the Cowboys are more likely to win or lose the game by their own play than the Giants. That is, Dallas will either win this game or lose this game on its own volition. New York will do what they do--Eli finding Nicks and Cruz for a lot of yards, Brandon Jacobs running 10 times for 13 yards before getting 25 on his next two carries, the defensive front recording pressures and hits on Romo more often than not, the special teams an adventure--but Dallas is much more variable. Will Demarco Murray get back into form? Will Dez Bryant make the big play or choke on it? Will their secondary show up? Will Jason Garrett outsmart himself in the coaching box? Will Joe Buck and Troy Aikman ever do any games not involving any NFC East teams? Will Mike Pereira ever say anything that makes sense? Will Jason Witten unintentionally pants a cheerleader? These are all Cowboys questions that I cannot answer. Because of that unpredictability, I like the visitors here. New York 24, Dallas 21. Chicago (18) at Denver (11): In theory, Brian Urlacher should be the ultimate Tebow killer. Urlacher is the rare linebacker that is both bigger and more physical than Tebow, and he also drops into coverage right where Tebow likes to throw as well as any backer in the league. He also has a running mate in Lance Briggs that is disciplined enough to contain the option but swift enough to blow up Tebow on the edge of the defense. Lovie Smith preaches a disciplined, positional responsibility to his defensive troops, precisely what so many others have failed to do against Tebow. The problem for the Bears is putting enough points on the board to outscore Tebow. With Caleb Hanie continuing to look lost in the offense, the line going back to sieve status, and the loss of Matt Forte, I really don’t see how the Bears offense produces more than a couple of field goals or perhaps a fluke touchdown. The Broncos defense is playing spirited ball, with Champ Bailey rolling back the years and contributions from unlikely sources such as Ryan McBean and undrafted rookie Chris Harris. Chicago lays claim to the incredible Devin Hester, but the Broncos punting and punt coverage has been outstanding lately and John Fox is a smart enough coach to not let that beat his team. I have a strong suspicion this game will be close late, and that means yet another week of Tebow Time. I won’t pick against that until someone proves to me it isn’t real. Denver 16, Chicago 12. New Orleans (2) at Tennessee (10): Tennessee continues to be the best team nobody talks about. Here is where we find out just how good the Titans really are, because the Saints are rolling. New Orleans is vulnerable. They score two touchdowns less on the road than they do at home, and they have dropped games to vastly inferior St. Louis and Tampa Bay on the road. This game is outdoors and the weather looks chilly, with temps in the mid-40s. Chris Johnson has awoken from his slumber, rushing for 343 yards the last two weeks, and the Saints rank 30th in yards per carry allowed at just under 5 per attempt. The Titans desperately need the win to keep a leg up in the crowded AFC playoff race, while the Saints are pretty well locked into the #3 seed in the NFC already (barring a 49ers collapse). The cloud formations certainly look gloomy for the Saints. But I still like New Orleans to triumph. The Titans passing game lacks punch, as Johnson has rushed for more yards than Matt Hasselbeck has thrown for in the last two weeks. Tennessee’s defense is trending in the wrong direction in terms of efficiency, relying instead on turnovers to help prop them up. The Saints have also been running the ball more effectively lately, and their troika of Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas, and Darren Sproles offers insurance should one of them have an off day or leave with an injury; the Titans have no such Plan B or C. The Titans rank 31st in sack percentage, which means Drew Brees will have time to dissect the defense. Tennessee has a very solid back seven, and I really like the way the two rookie LBs, Colin McCarthy and Akeem Ayers, are playing lately. But give Brees time and he can beat better pass defenses than this one. The Titans do not blitz well, and if they try it opens up the best TE in the game in Jimmy Graham. I do think the Titans will hang tough, and if Marc Mariani can break off a punt return or two that shifts both the field and momentum I believe Tennessee will pull the upset. But the Saints are too loaded and too focused to slip up here. New Orleans 27, Tennessee 24. Minnesota (28) at Detroit (16): Here is a golden opportunity for the Lions to stop the bleeding, hemorrhaging away a 5-0 start to their current 7-5 record. This should be a pretty easy win for Detroit, provided they can stop stabbing themselves in the spleen long enough to take out some frustrations legally upon the Vikings. In spite of the recent spate of overzealous antics from various Lions, Detroit has played some surprisingly strong football. Matt Stafford is putting up very big numbers, completing almost 75% of his passes at over 8 yards per attempt in the last three weeks. If he can avoid the head-scratching (or banging through a mirror in this Lions’ fans case) early interceptions, Detroit can lean more on their recently rediscovered strong running game. Yes, that’s right, the Lions have a strong running game; only the Cardinals (?!) have run for more yards per carry over the last month than the Lions, and Kevin Smith has provided a nice boost. They simply don’t run the ball enough, in part because of Stafford starting games so poorly. This is a great chance to achieve more balance, and for the Lions to treat the Ford Field faithful to a disciplined romp. Lions 36, Vikings 20. New England (4) at Washington (27): The most interesting thing about the Ethnic Slurs right now is the suspensions of Fred Davis and Trent Williams for violating the league’s drug policy. These two love themselves some serious marijuana! How much do they love pot, you might ask? Here’s how much: During the lockout, the NFLPA advised its constituents that what happened during the lockout stayed locked out, so many players toked up. As the end of lockout approached, they advised the players that there will be a grace period immediately following the lockout where there would be no drug testing, i.e. stop drugging up now and you won’t get in any trouble. That was either a lie or a miscalculation, because as soon as the lockout ended the drug testing resumed. A handful of players (eleven to be exact) tested positive during this time, and the NFL agreed to hold its nose and let it slide with the agreement that the players received a strike in the 3-strike drug policy. Davis and Williams were among the eleven players. When you are in the strike system, you are subject to more advanced testing. These two potheads just couldn’t back away from the bong, and in the week or so immediately after the lockout both tested positive again…with higher levels of the chemicals produced from smoking marijuana in their system than the samples gathered earlier. One Washington source indicates the levels were consistent with someone who had literally just got done smoking a large amount of pot, in Davis’ case someone who “habitually smokes at least 3 joints a day and lives in a permanent state of semi-altered consciousness". Instead of curbing their need for weed, Williams and Davis opted to do “Harold and Kumar in the NFL”. Because they already had a strike from earlier this summer, that subjects these two stoners to mandatory 4-game suspensions. Given the recent behavior of Davis and Williams, that makes them well-paid potheads with loads of free time. Gee, I wonder how they’ll spend that time… Patriots 30, Ethnic Slurs 10 Indianapolis (32) at Baltimore (5): I was impressed with Dan Orlovsky last week, making his first start for the Colts and finding some success against the Patriots. He certainly offers more than Curtis Painter, and the chemistry with Pierre Garcon seems legit. But the roll call of injured Colts defenders continues to lengthen, and this defense would look terrible even with Peyton Manning leading the offense to a few more scores and getting some early leads. Baltimore can keep Ray Lewis in rest mode. Great week to use Ray Rice in salary cap fantasy football games, unless John Harbaugh fancies throwing the ball 40 times against a Colts defense starting practice squad corners and castoff journeymen up front. Ravens 33, Colts 14. Kansas City (20) at NY Jets (9): New York had better take this opponent seriously, because the Chiefs have been playing very solid defense lately. Kansas City ranks 3rd in sack percentage over the last month, and they’ve battled some pretty good offenses in that time. The bookies take them seriously, putting the over/under on this game at an absurdly low 36.5. Vegas anticipates a defensive struggle, and so do I. Well, sort of. I think this game is a tale of two underwhelming quarterbacks piloting two humdrum offenses both facing defenses that match up well against them. The Jets have the better running game lately, as Shonn Greene has exploded for 166 yards on 35 carries in the last two weeks. While those numbers seem fairly pedestrian, for the Jets they represent a significant upgrade in production and efficiency. The Sanchize has been better at throwing shorter passes more often; even though the completion percentage is still substandard, he is playing smarter and more careful football when it matters most. I like him throwing to Santonio Holmes and Dustin Keller in the clutch more than I like Tyler Palko throwing to Dwayne Bowe and Steve Breaston. As long as Sanchez avoids the dreaded pick six gaffe, the Jets should keep themselves firmly planted in the thick of the AFC playoff race. Jets 20, Chiefs 13. Tampa Bay (29) at Jacksonville (30): The battle to see which Florida team sucks the most pits a team that most everyone expected to be in a rebuild (Jacksonville) against a team nobody expected to need a rebuild (Tampa Bay). It’s a battle between a rookie QB most everyone expected to struggle against a 3rd year QB most everyone expected to become a star this year. That third year guy is Josh Freeman, who is questionable to play. He had to sit last week and watch backup Josh Johnson play better than he has, albeit in a lopsided loss to the Panthers. With the way Coach Raheem Morris came down hard on his young team, this is a real opportunity for Freeman to salvage a terrible season by being a leader. Even if he cannot play, I want to see Freeman actively involved in sideline huddles and encouraging his mates. If he does play, I want him to learn from what Johnson did well last week, making careful decisions and not forcing balls but rather taking what the defense gave him. Regardless of who starts for Tampa, I expect the Bucs defense to respond to Morris’ eye-opening reaction to Brian Price, sending the immature DT home when he committed an asinine penalty that cost his team any chance to win. This group needed that in a big way, and I suspect they will take it out on the hapless Jaguars. Bucs 20, Jaguars 10. Buffalo (25) at San Diego (19): To think that these two teams sat atop their respective divisions in the middle of October makes it more mind-boggling how terrible these teams have played since that juncture. The Chargers snapped out of their 5-game losing streak last week, blowing out a bad Jaguars team. Buffalo has now lost 5 in a row and has to travel across the country to San Diego, where the Chargers still cling to some far-flung playoff hopes. I’ll go with the desperate home team that has some positive experience in this situation before against a team that has already achieved what I believed their season win total would be back in August. Chargers 32, Bills 27. San Francisco (6) at Arizona (21): It will be real interesting to see how the 49ers handle clinching their division so early. This is unchartered territory for everyone involved here. Of course they will say all the right clichés about how every game matters and they must stay sharp and they take the Cardinals seriously. Right, he says, rolling his eyes in contemptuous skepticism… The Cardinals have won four of their last five and have played pretty solid defense during that time. The one loss in that series was at San Francisco, a game played in a chilly rainstorm where the Cardinals rotated QBs between John Skelton and Richard Bartel. Kevin Kolb is back in the saddle and looked solid in the upset over Dallas last week. Beanie Wells is running hard, and they still have a phenomenal wideout in Larry Fitzgerald. Meanwhile the 49ers are stagnating a little. Frank Gore has not run for over 100 yards in over a month, and Alex Smith’s completion percentage and TD/INT ratio have regressed some as the season progresses. It is a situation like this where we find out just how good a coach Jim Harbaugh really is. With little to play for, on the road, facing a team they destroyed last month, it is hard to find the motivation for San Francisco. Because this team has never been in this situation, forecasting their reaction is difficult. They’re either going to unconsciously let up or go in the other direction and ramp it up to try and tell critics like myself to shut the hell up. This forecast model favors the latter, albeit tepidly. San Francisco 20, Arizona 17. Atlanta (8) at Carolina (24): Fresh off getting beat in Houston by a 3rd string, 5th round rookie QB, the Falcons head to Carolina and face the #1 overall pick and offensive rookie of the year clubhouse leader in Cam Newton. He set the NFL record for most rushing TDs by a quarterback in the 12th game of his rookie season. This is a dangerous spot for Atlanta, which makes it time for Matt Ryan to shine. Last week Ryan was poor, routinely missing his targets in the way that Tim Tebow routinely gets pilloried for doing, seeing the throws late and making his receivers work hard for the 20 receptions they got in his 47 attempts. It is important to note Ryan was not sacked in the Houston game either, although he was often forced to move around before throwing. He also wasn’t helped by Julio Jones dropping at least three passes that I saw, surprisingly bullied by the Houston secondary as well. Carolina doesn’t have anywhere near the pass defense that Houston does, neither the pass rush nor the back end coverage. Ryan should get back on track, and I think Jones will make amends for his bad week. Carolina has so many injuries on defense that it is tough to see them slowing down the Atlanta offense. I was impressed at the lift veteran Mike Peterson brought to the Falcons D last week, and I think the overall strength of the Atlanta linebackers will be an effective foil against Newton. Cam will make some highlight plays, but won’t make enough of them to overcome his own bad defense. Falcons 30, Panthers 24. Philadelphia (23) at Miami (22): Philadelphia is in the midst of one of the most disappointing seasons any pro sports team has ever suffered through in terms of failure to meet expectations. In fact, they are the most disappointing team in NFL history in one aspect: no team has been eliminated from meeting their season over/under win total so early. The over/under line was 11.5, and when the Eagles lost their fifth game they ensured that those savvy gamblers who took the under will collect. That happened in Week Nine, beating the old record (the 2002 Rams, who lost their first 5 games but then won 5 straight with a season +/- of 10.5 wins) by a full two weeks. Thanks to the good guys at StatFox for that one. Miami is clearly the better of the 4-8 teams here, they are at home, and facing a lousy backup QB. Don’t overthink this one, people. Miami 24, Philadelphia 17. Monday Night< St. Louis (31) at Seattle (17): This is a total dog of a game, even though I enjoy watching Seattle play and the Seahawks somehow have a fair chance to win out and seize the final NFC Wild Card spot. Right now it looks like the Rams will start Tom Brandstater at quarterback, as both Sam Bradford and AJ Feely are hurt. I actually favor a move like that. The Rams offense has been pathetic with the other guys in command, and the offensive line remains a major problem. Why not give Brandstater a chance? Sure, he’s the guy who was the #3 QB in Denver before Tim Tebow arrived, and the Fresno State product has never taken a snap in regular season action. This is the time of season where the Rams need to be in identification mode, looking for guys that can help them beyond this year. Maybe Brandstater shows enough to prove he can be the #2 QB next season, something that would save the Rams money and potentially a late draft pick. God knows they need to properly allocate resources going forward and overhaul their receiving corps and secondary with as much attention as they can possibly devote. Those deficiencies will be on full display in Seattle, where the Seahawks went young on both accounts and have found reasonable success. Seattle 27, St. Louis 10.