Last Week: 11-5, including correctly forecasting overtime in the ATL/NO game and almost exactly nailing the score in three other games. After a careful audit by faithful reader JamestheGlove, I amend my season forecast tally to 95-51. Thursday Night NY Jets (15) at Denver (18): Short weeks make for interesting travel. The Jets players probably didn’t get home after their game Sunday night until at least 1 AM Monday. With the travel day factored in, there is very little time to get any sort of opponent-specific game plan implemented. That makes this game more interesting than it might first appear. With the Denver offense going decidedly old school in a league that hasn’t seen that style in decades, it gives the Broncos a strange advantage. In theory, the Jets are well-equipped to stop Tim Tebow and his veer option proficiency, but sometimes strange things happen between the theory and the practice. New York built their defense outside-in, with an emphasis on pass defense. Their inside backers, namely David Harris, are responsible for cleaning up all the runs that Sione Pouha and his linemates cannot. If the corners can play disciplined and keep the edge contained, that is going to force a lot of negative plays and more passing than the Broncos want. But depending on Antonio Cromartie and Kyle Wilson to play conservative, principled football is a tough sell. They may control Tebow for 90% of his plays, but those 3-5 big ones that they’ll concede just might be enough. Denver has a steadily improving defense that can get to The Sanchize and force him to look like, well, Tim Tebow throwing the ball erratically to nobody in particular. I do think that the Jets have such an overall edge in talent that they can ultimately prevail, but I expect this to be a close, low-scoring affair. If the Broncos can swing a big play or two on special teams or scoring on defense, they’ll take it, but forecasting that is like trying to predict exactly where a tornado is going to touch down. I’ll take the Jets in a squeaker, but I won’t be surprised if Team Tebow prevails and you shouldn’t be either. Jets 20, Broncos 17. Sunday Best Cincinnati (9) at Baltimore (10): In the last two weeks, Joe Flacco has beaten Pittsburgh with an epic clutch drive and lost to Seattle in a game where the best pass thrown was by Ravens RB Ray Rice. Such is life for Baltimore, which has to be doubting whether this roller coaster will ever stop. Flacco can do a lot for himself against a tough Bengals defense that will miss top corner Leon Hall. The Ravens are a freaking enigma. If you are one of those people that subscribes to the theory that “If Team A loses to Team C, and Team B beat Team C”, you love the Bengals here. Baltimore has losses to Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Seattle--all teams that Cincinnati has defeated, on the road no less. Here’s what that tells me: the Ravens play to the level of their opponent, while the Bengals are on an even keel. Flacco in particular is vulnerable to major fluctuations, and I wonder how he will view the Bengals after they lost to Pittsburgh, a team Flacco lit up, last week. And Flacco has been terrible against Cincinnati in his career, throwing nine INTs against 4 TDs with an anemic 4.1 yards per attempt. Yet despite those ugly numbers, the Ravens are 3-3 against the Bengals under Flacco. I think the Baltimore defense will pick up the intensity at home, knowing the importance of this game in the standings. I can’t imagine A.J. Green at full strength after tweaking his knee awkwardly on his fantastic touchdown catch a week ago. I don’t think the Bengals will be able to run the ball against Haloti Ngata and friends, not enough to suck Ed Reed up for the play action over his head. The 7 point line seems high, so take the Bengals to cover but the Ravens to prevail. Baltimore 23, Cincinnati 17. And the Rest Carolina (29) at Detroit (14): Late last week, I caught a radio interview with Panthers coach Ron Rivera. He raved about how well the team had practiced all week, how the mindset was so positive and focused, how spirited the meetings had been. Either he was lying, or else his players let it all out during the week because their performance against Tennessee was every bit as bad as any in their 2-14 season a year ago. This week I’ve picked up a much different vibe from Carolina. The coaches are more guarded and the players seem to realize that they’re still a last place team, albeit one with a lot more hope going forward. Still, this is a very difficult Xs and Os matchup for the Panthers. Carolina’s solid OL played its worst game in years last week, and now they must face Suh, Williams, Avril et al and a noisy crowd that embraces the rough and tumble style the Lions like to play. Detroit covers #1 wideouts very well, and after Steve Smith the Panthers ability to make plays in the passing game really falls off. Carolina cannot cover tight ends at all, and here comes Brandon Pettigrew and the freshly rediscovered Tony Scheffler. And even though they haven’t had a great deal of opportunity, Detroit has shown some effectiveness at running the ball recently, where Carolina’s defense ranks 25th in yards per attempt. The Lions are approaching this game with a definite, tangible sense of urgency. This is a must-win if they wish to keep their playoff aspirations credible, and they know it. I don’t get any sense that they are looking ahead to next week and their turkey day shot at the Packers. The approach is more of a back to basics mode, something which I believe the Lions will wear well. Detroit 30, Carolina 17. Jacksonville (31) at Cleveland (30): These are the two most impotent offenses in the league, and they are about to play this game in what looks like rainy, windy conditions on the shores of Lake Erie in mid-November. Expect most of the game to be played between the twenty yard lines, as these are the teams with the fewest red zone opportunities and also the teams with the fewest plays that gain more than 20 yards. Both defenses are also decent; I would argue that the Browns have a very sound defense that just gets overworked. Jacksonville suffers from the same issue, but they must go forward now without their best cover man, Rashean Mathis. That tips the scales just enough to favor the home team. I like Josh Cribbs to have a big impact as both a receiver and a return man in a Cleveland 16-12 victory that you should only watch if your gutters are already clean. Tampa Bay (25) at Green Bay (1): This game figures to be another quick and painless romp for the dominant Packers. Tampa Bay ranks 27th in 1st quarter scoring and 26th in 1st quarter scoring defense, but ranks 30th in both categories over the last four games. This team simply sleepwalks through the opening quarter with an alarming frequency. The Packers score more points than anyone in the first quarter, and put up an average of 13 points at home in the opening stanza. The Bucs haven’t scored 13 total 1st quarter points in their last 7 games combined. It’s too bad, really, because the Bucs have the sort of personnel that could give the Packers trouble. Their size and physicality at wideout could be an effective foil for when the Packers try to play press man, and it also sets up the intermediate passing game--which has killed the Packers all year. They have a physical running back in Legarrette Blount running behind a physical line that plays with nastiness. Josh Freeman is the kind of QB that can shrug off the initial rush. They have corners that are capable of making big plays. Their special teams (other than punt returns) are consistently strong. But they have not turned many of those “cans” and “coulds” into positive results lately. I suppose there is a chance the motivation of playing the undefeated Super Bowl champs coalesces the Bucs into who some pundits thought they’d be this year. It’s more likely the Packers use them as a suppository. Green Bay 40, Tampa Bay 20. Oakland (13) at Minnesota (28): You have to hand it to Jared Allen. The Vikings defensive end is essentially a one man gang, a devastating pass rusher with no parallel this year. Other than bursts from end counterpart Brian Robison, Allen has pretty much been the only positive the Vikings have on defense this year. Now he gets to face the run-first Raiders, who figure to get Darren McFadden back and even more explosive at running the football. Allen also gets to face off against the guy I bestowed with my “most improved player” midseason award, Raiders tackle Jared Veldheer. Perhaps Allen should twist inside more, as he successfully did against the Packers. Of course with their top corner, Antoine Winfield, lost with a broken collarbone and their #2 corner, Chris Cook, still in legal limbo, Allen would have to get to Carson Palmer on almost every dropback in order to keep the Vikings within striking distance. And then there is the Minnesota offense, which regressed against what had been a porous Green Bay defense. I saw things I didn’t like from Christian Ponder, namely an inability to make quick decisions when pressured. Even though the sack number wasn’t egregious, Ponder often froze for a count before throwing the ball to where he receiver is, and not where the receiver is going. The Raiders secondary has their struggles, but they are an opportunistic group with great recovery speed (thanks Al Davis!). Ponder is going to have to perform much better, the tackles will have to perform better to keep Kamerion Wimbley from breaking him in half, and the run blocking from the guards and center will have to be better for Adrian Peterson. Too many variables there, even at home against a team I still don’t have a lot of confidence in despite Oakland’s first-place standing. I also like the impact of the extra rest, as the Raiders played last Thursday. Oakland wins in Minnesota in the rematch of the 1976 Super Bowl. I’ll even go with the same score from that game. Raiders 32, Vikings 14. San Diego (19) at Chicago (8): I wanted to espouse how great the Bears are playing and how badly Philip Rivers has been choking, but when I sat down to evaluate this matchup I was overwhelmed with the sense that the Chargers are going to pull the upset. I can’t explain it. There is little logical rationale for why it will happen, not in Chicago with the Bears defense playing as well as it has in years and Matt Forte leading the offense. I occasionally have a war inside my head on games, where one side is screaming one thing in spite of obvious evidence to the contrary. The impulse side wins here. San Diego 27, Chicago 24. Philadelphia (22) at NY Giants (7): With their lofty expectations dashed like Rick Perry’s Presidential campaign, the Eagles are now forced to play the role of spoiler. That just doesn’t strike me as something this group of individuals can embrace very readily. Desean Jackson’s indefensible, childish actions that led to his benching--and it goes far deeper than one missed meeting--are the perfect summation for this Eagles team: talented but shallow, explosive but half-baked. They head to New York with Michael Vick a maybe with two broken ribs. Tony Romo played through a similar injury earlier this year, which puts the spotlight squarely on Vick’s toughness. Even though it might be a different injury, trust me when I tell you the guys in the locker rooms will see it like this: if Romo can play with it, Vick had better play with it too. Right or wrong, Vick has to play or else he is going to get slammed for his toughness. Given how people view him with such divided opinion already, I suspect that anyone who criticizes him for sitting will be branded a racist, but that’s another story… Even at full wind, Vick was going to have to be on top of his game here for Philly to have a chance. It appears Jeremy Maclin will not play, and with Jackson’s undependable volatility, that makes it all the harder for Vick or replacement Vince Young. I do think Lesean McCoy will have some success, but not enough to compensate for all the big plays the Eagle defense will cede. This is must-watch football for a variety of reasons, and we’ll all watch the Giants drive the final nail into the Philly coffin. New York 31, Philadelphia 26. Buffalo (17) at Miami (23): These two AFC East rivals are heading in opposite directions, with the Bills plummeting back to mediocrity from their fast start and the Dolphins climbing up after a miserable first eight weeks. The cynic in me would like to read something into Ryan Fitzpatrick’s declining play ever since he signed his big new contract, but I’m going to give him some credit. I think he simply came back to being Ryan Fitzpatrick, as defenses figured out how to scheme against all the crosses and flood packages. His pass protection has declined during that time as well, and losing Eric Wood at center will certainly hurt that even more. Wood was playing as well as any center in the league, and his loss really impacts the line calls and blitz pickups. The Dolphins defense has keyed their turnaround, bagging eight sacks in the last two games and forcing several incompletions as well. As Fitzpatrick’s time has diminished, so has the Bills ability to beat the defense over the top, and that plays into the hands of a Miami pass defense that does a good job short but is vulnerable deep. If Fitzpatrick gets time and rhythm and Fred Jackson can break off a couple of big runs, I think the Bills will prevail. But I have to factor how these two ships in the night are passing the last couple of weeks, and the Miami’s catamaran is sailing a lot smoother than Buffalo’s rowboat. Dolphins 24, Buffalo 20. Dallas (12) at Washington (26): All the talk emanating from Washington--including the players themselves--gives the strong indication the Ethnic Slurs are ready to mail it in for the rest of the year. The infamous Mike Shanahan charm has worn off, and his continual and nonsensical spinning of the QB carousel has backfired, as the team has zero confidence in both Grossman and Beck. The defense has struggled of late, unable to get off the field on 3rd downs and not forcing the action as they did early in the season. With the injuries piling up faster than the losses, it’s easy to see this team riding the midnight train to a top five draft pick. I give them one last chance to salvage some dignity here. Worse Washington teams than this have risen up and played great against the hated Cowboys, particularly at home. Dallas’ battles with inconsistency leave some hope as well, but the “whomever sucks less this week in practice” quarterback situation in Washington pretty much quells any real threat. If you are somehow still alive in survivor fantasy football, this is a good week to use Dallas. Cowboys cruise 27-16. Seattle (24) at St. Louis (27): My 6-year old son Layne is getting pretty good at reflexively knowing his sports team monikers, but St. Louis is still an issue. Because he heard so much about the St. Louis Cardinals winning the World Series, he struggles with coming up with the Rams. Then I further confuse him by telling him the Arizona Cardinals used to be in St. Louis, and the St. Louis Rams used to be in Los Angeles. “But Daddy, Los Angeles doesn’t have a team anymore.” Right. That actually got me to thinking, Los Angeles doesn’t really have any teams that they didn’t steal from another place. The Lakers are from Minneapolis, the Clippers from Buffalo via San Diego, the Dodgers from Brooklyn, the Raiders were from Oakland and the Rams were from Cleveland. I guess you can count the Kings as originals, but the NHL is on the radar of 6-year olds living in Houston about as much as Brazilian waxing or the benefits of Enzyte. Rams 23, Seahawks 21. Arizona (21) at San Francisco (2): Niners fans are a bit disappointed that a win here will not mathematically clinch the NFC West, as the entire division picked up wins a week ago. As my Venezuelan neighbor constantly mock chides his children, “Pobrecitos”. Much like last week with Baltimore in Seattle, I smell a trap here. The Niners come off a hard-fought, physical, emotional win over the Giants and have a huge game coming on Thanksgiving in Baltimore, a game that pits coach Jim Harbaugh against his brother John. Frank Gore is dinged up and clearly not at full speed, ditto Braylon Edwards. The Cardinals are playing with a plucky confidence, with John Skelton revitalizing Larry Fitzgerald and the pass defense markedly improving over the last few weeks. The Giants largely neutered the Niners pass offense with their three safety set, and the Cardinals run that as their base nickel defense and feature playmaker Adrian Wilson. Wilson has a great history against Alex Smith, recording 4 sacks, 3 INTs, and three forced fumbles…and that is just their games in San Francisco (thanks Phil D. for the numbers!). I’m going to be bold on this one. Not only do I think the underdog Cardinals will cover the 9.5 point spread, I forecast the mother of all upsets here. Arizona 20, San Francisco 17 in a game where we are reminded that Alex Smith is in fact Alex Smith. Tennessee (16) at Atlanta (11): Last week, Chris Johnson finally got rolling against Carolina, putting up almost 175 yards and a touchdown. Sorry fantasy geeks, but do not expect a repeat performance. Curtis Lofton and Sean Weatherspoon will see to it that CJ2K will not find those big holes at the second level, and safety Thom DeCoud closes down on the ball very well if the backers are well-blocked. Even with the loss last week, I really like the roll the Falcons are on right now. The offensive line has improved, Matt Ryan is getting rid of the ball quicker, Michael Turner is still chuffing along nicely, and the interior of the defense continues to congeal together into a more formidable unit. The Falcons have a chance to go on a real run, and it starts here with the humdrum Titans. After this week, a Week 13 trip to Matt Leinart’s Houston and a Week 16 rematch with New Orleans are the only games the Falcons will not be favored by at least a touchdown. Yet the Titans have a couple of streaks going here that give me pause. Since becoming the Titans, Tennessee is 12-1 against the NFC South. They have won 18 of their last 20 overall against the NFC. And they haven’t lost to Atlanta since Deion Sanders and Jessie Tuggle each returned Warren Moon interceptions for touchdowns on the opening weekend of the 1990 season. That is some powerful history, and as a proud owner of a BA in History from Ohio University, I have to respect that. Especially since the last time Atlanta beat this franchise was the day before my first day of college classes. With history on my side as my guide, a phrase often used by Dr. Roy Rauschenberg, one of my favorite professors at OU, I take the Titans…to cover the 6.5 point spread. Atlanta 30-27 on a late field goal. Monday Night Kansas City (20) at New England (5): New England received an unexpected but very welcome addition this week with the activation of rookie offensive lineman Marcus Cannon. The 5th rounder from TCU was widely projected to be selected in the second round before a diagnosis of non-Hodgkins lymphoma shortly before the draft. It caused him to slide, and the Patriots raised some eyebrows by taking him as high as they did. Cannon fought off the cancer and got himself in good enough physical condition to make the active roster this week. That is my clubhouse leader for best story of the NFL season, as I got to meet Cannon a couple of times during the draft lead-up and found him to be a very engaging, funny, smart guy with thighs thicker than my torso. Good luck, Marcus, keep fighting the good fight! As for the game, last week illustrated that the Patriots and the Chiefs are both back to being the lofty Patriots and lowly Chiefs. I don’t see any reason why the norm will deviate here, not with Tyler Palko leading the Chiefs on the road. Looks like another game where I can safely go to bed at halftime. New England 37, Kansas City 13. Byes: Houston (6), Pittsburgh (3), New Orleans (4), Indianapolis (32) College Games The Gameday traveling roadshow comes to Houston this week, and I’ll be in the thick of it. Houston 59, SMU 33. Case Keenum throws for six more TDs. USC 33, Oregon 30. Upset special as Matt Barkley proves to be more like Matt Leinart every week. Baylor 44, Oklahoma 41. Upset special II. In RG3 I trust. Michigan 39, Nebraska 20. Is the Big 10 really this bad? Rutgers 24, Cincinnati 17. Yes folks, this does decide a BCS bowl bid for all intents and purposes.