Last Week: 9-5, pushing the season forecast to 104-56. Thanksgiving Games Green Bay (1) at Detroit (8): Even though all life stops for this game during my family’s Thanksgiving activities, I realize not all of you are fortunate enough to have a family that builds the day around the Lions game. So here is what you are likely to miss: Packers get the ball first, Randall Cobb runs the kick back to the Lions 44. Two plays later, Aaron Rodgers hits Jermichael Finley for a 36-yard TD pass between broken coverage. Lions get the ball, Matt Stafford throws two wild incompletions sandwiched around a 3-yard Kevin Smith run. After a fair catch on the punt, Rodgers drives the Packers 77 yards in 8 plays, punctuated by a 26-yard Jordy Nelson TD reception where Chris Houston misjudges the ball in the air. After a decent Stefan Logan runback, Stafford throws a pick six off the back shoulder of Brandon Pettigrew to Charles Woodson. Kevin Smith goes down with a shoulder injury during the runback. The Lions respond by going 3-and-out with the aid of a holding penalty on Gosder Cherilus and Stafford throwing a ball away. Then the Lions finally show up to play, forcing a punt after Kyle Vanden Bosch gets a sack and Josh Sitton gets flagged for holding Ndamukong Suh. Detroit drives for a Jason Hanson 48-yard field goal, which is matched shortly thereafter by a Mason Crosby 39-yarder after Vanden Bosch notches a 3rd down sack on Rodgers. The Lions then piece together a purposeful drive that eats up most of the rest of the 2nd quarter, culminating with a Stafford-to-Pettigrew 9 yard TD pass. Cobb returns the kick to near midfield and the Packers quickly assemble a short drive into field goal range, but Crosby misses the kick as the first half expires. 24-10 Packers. Detroit feeds off the frenzied fans as the second half begins, and drives deep into Green Bay territory with a long pass from Stafford to Calvin Johnson. The drive stalls, however, on another holding penalty and a Desmond Bishop sack that forces 3rd and 22 and ultimately produces another Hanson field goal. Green Bay says “enough of this game”. Rodgers hits Jennings for a 72-yard TD strike on their first play of the half. On Detroit’s next offensive play, Mo Morris fumbles away a poorly thrown screen pass right into the hands of Charlie Peprah, who runs it back to the Detroit 6. Two plays later Rodgers trots into the end zone around the left edge, scoring with no Lions visible in the TV picture. After that, the Lions mount a comeback while the Packers fight boredom for the next 25 minutes. Once the score tightens to 41-27, Green Bay decides they need one last boot on the neck and methodically slice and dice their way to a 12-play, 82 yard drive where Rodgers goes a perfect 7-for-7. John Kuhn caps it with a 3-yard TD plunge. Final score Green Bay 48, Detroit 27. Enjoy your pumpkin pie, Detroit, because your playoff slippers just got smashed by the still-perfect Packers. Miami (20) at Dallas (10): This game looks a whole lot more appealing now than it did a couple weeks ago. Miami has won three in a row after starting 0-7, and their defense has really picked it up. Matt Moore has provided an unexpected lift at quarterback, showing poise and confidence in himself that has rubbed off on the team. Reggie Bush has found a role, and the Dolphins have figured out how to best deploy him. All this makes Miami a very dangerous spoiler. The Cowboys are a team with a propensity for being spoiled like a gallon of milk left out because a certain 6-year old boy forgot to put it away and Dad didn’t catch it for a couple hours because he was too busy watching the Baylor/Oklahoma game. But their defense is good enough to stymie Moore and Brandon Marshall, and the home cooking on Thanksgiving will have Jerry’s World as rocking as it gets. Washington gave them a real scare last week, but they persevered and survived. Dallas is now tied for first in the NFC East and is thankful for their good fortune. I think the Cowboys running game will get back in step, and Tony Romo should continue his amazing Mr. November run. Dallas 25, Miami 21. San Francisco (2) at Baltimore (9): By now you’ve probably been beaten over the head with the fact that this game features the Harbaugh brothers coaching against one another. It’s a pretty cool development, and both Jim and John have earned the praise for crafting strong teams that are from the same womb as well. All that attention overshadows what is a very compelling matchup between two very good defensive fronts. I love the prospect of Ray Lewis vs. Patrick Willis, the best inside backer of one generation against the best of the next generation. Haloti Ngata and Justin Smith are two of the best D-linemen in the game, and I am excited to see which can make a bigger impact in this game. The two quarterbacks here, Joe Flacco and Alex Smith, are both quarterbacks that can really impress but also really let you down. Ray Rice and Frank Gore are two of the most consistently productive backs in the league. It’s a cornucopia of strong matchups. The key figures to be Joe Flacco. The Ravens QB has been very good much of the season, but tends to choke on the turkey leg when the spotlight shines bright. Even though he shined against Pittsburgh this year, I still don’t trust Flacco to go out and beat a strong defense like San Francisco’s. Finding offensive balance has been an issue for John Harbaugh all season long, and given the lengthy streak by the Niners defense of not allowing rushing touchdowns, Flacco is going to have to make plays. San Francisco has a playmaking corner in Carlos Rogers (Washington fans insert guffaw here) and tends to force the ball away from the sidelines, which produces tips and big hits across the middle. That is not the strength of the Baltimore passing game, which likes to work deep outside the numbers. So running the ball figures to be a struggle, and the Niners are well-designed to blunt the strength of the Baltimore passing attack. Points are going to be hard to come by. Enter Ed Reed. The future Hall of Famer is an elite playmaker in his own right, and he has played the role of savior before. I’m sorry to say I still don’t trust Alex Smith to not wet the bed in a big game on the road, and Reed’s presence makes it seem more likely. This is such a tight game that one big play could swing the outcome, and I like Reed to make that play for Baltimore. Baltimore 16, San Francisco 13. Sunday Best Chicago (13) at Oakland (14): Life after Cutler begins at Oakland, a team that knows all about losing a good starting quarterback in the middle of a good season. Cutler is more integral to Chicago’s success than Jason Campbell was to Oakland’s, however, and the early trade deadline means the Bears are forced to go with Caleb Hanie instead of acquiring their own Carson Palmer. I have a feeling that Hanie will not be the problem for the Bears. His mobility and throw-the-ball-thru-a-wall style set up nicely against the Raiders, though I question his ability to throw open the Chicago receivers the way Cutler could. It takes a lot of time to get the timing down between quarterback and receiver in Mike Martz’s offense, and with Hanie’s inexperience and the lack of precision and consistency at receiver it could make for some awkward moments in the passing game. I also think Oakland’s pass rush will snap the impressive Chicago sackless streak. Then there is the matter of Chicago stopping the Oakland offense. Carson Palmer is getting into rhythm, gaining a more comfortable understanding of where his receivers like the ball and how his line protections work out. Even with the cavalcade of injuries that have sidelined Denarius Moore, Jacoby Ford, and Darrius Heyward-Bey at various intervals, Palmer appears to have thrown off the rust. It helps that Michael Bush has run like a man possessed in relief of injured Darren McFadden, and McFadden could return here to make the running game even more potent. Chicago gives up more yards per carry than all but 3 teams (one of which is Oakland), and they rank 31st in tackles for loss in the run game. What that means: the 235+ pound Bush will get room to get up to speed, and he’s bigger than most linebackers that try to slow him down. Chicago certainly has a chance if they can gash off some big runs against that porous Oakland run defense, but I have another feeling that the Raiders are going to dare Caleb Hanie to beat them and will be hellbent to stop Matt Forte. This is a tough game to forecast, as evidenced by the game being essentially a pick ‘em in Vegas. I like Oakland at home ever so slightly. Raiders 23, Bears 21. White Meat and Cornbread Stuffing New England (5) at Philadelphia (16): Just when you thought it was safe to write off the Eagles as a failed experiment, they paddle themselves out of Charybdis and back into relevancy. Their win over the Giants was a real stunner, not so much that they won the game but that they did it with Vince Young and not Michael Vick leading the way. It also showed that the Philly defense has come a long way from their early season horrors, and that is what is probably keeping Bill Belichick up at night this week. The Philly defensive front is a problem for New England. Jason Babin running wide around the edge, with a quickly improving linebacking group playing better zone behind him, is not an easy matchup, not even for Tom Brady. The Eagles are playing much more disciplined assignment-based defense, and they are doing so with an added sense of urgency that invigorates the elite talents. Asante Samuel knows Brady well, and he remains one of the best corners in the league at undercutting short routes that are the staple of the Brady-to-Welker attack. Yet the Patriots own embattled defense is stepping up as well. I like their opportunistic nature and ability to mix looks. That can confuse Young, who still struggles to remember his progressions and correctly decipher the coverage. I would almost prefer this game be in New England for the Eagles offense, because the Philly fans are prone to turning on their team when they make the boneheaded gaffes that have marked Young’s quarterbacking career. Getting an early lead is imperative for the Eagles, but that has been a problem; the Eagles have not scored in the first quarter in the last month, while the Patriots rank 5th in the league in first quarter points allowed. If the Eagles can somehow manufacture an early touchdown on a long Lesean McCoy run or a Desean Jackson return where he doesn’t get flagged for taunting, I think Philadelphia can feed off that and win this game. But I suspect the Patriots will do everything they can to prevent the big play and force the Eagles to work hard for their success, something Andy Reid’s team does not do well. New England 34, Philadelphia 30. Denver (15) at San Diego (19): The Tebowmania got its start earlier this year in the first meeting, the last game the Chargers won. That was seven weeks ago, when the Chargers were flying high at 4-1 and a certain RealGM football writer proclaimed them the best team in the AFC, while the Broncos were 1-4 and ranked in the bottom 5 of every power ranking. As frequent readers know, I have somewhat peculiar taste in music. One of my favorite bands is a group from Finland, Turisas. Their sound can best be summed up as Trans-Siberian Orchestra playing speed metal and singing songs about epic medieval battles. They have a song called “Take the Day!” that I think is the perfect background soundtrack for Tim Tebow. I can picture Tebow pacing along the sidelines, encouraging his men to ready for battle, to be confident in his leadership. “When the going gets tough, they send in the best” he growls, and the Broncos respond. With a triumphant marching beat and trumpets and electric guitars blaring, Denver follows their gilded general into the field and conquers the respected enemy even facing the longest of odds. It nearly worked in the first meeting, and that was with Tebow running the decidedly un-Tebow offense of the time. Now that Kyle Orton has been dispatched, the offense transmogrified, and the defense enlivened with Tebow’s awesome (using that word quite literally) presence, the depleted Chargers are in for a savage battle. Their own general, Philip Rivers, lacks the rousing charisma and sturdy weaponry to rally San Diego. Tebow 20, San Diego 19. Pittsburgh (4) at Kansas City (22): I do sense a little danger here that the Steelers will come off their bye week flat and overconfident. But then I think back to Tyler Palko behind that KC offensive line throwing to those receivers against the Patriots, and I feel very comfortable in forecasting a Pittsburgh party here. Palko wasn’t all that bad, but he needs time to develop chemistry and synchronicity with his receivers. The Steelers defense tends to disrupt that for even the most accomplished veteran quarterbacks. Troy Polamalu’s freelancing can create chaos and mayhem more than the outdated GPS or loose satellite dish in those fabulous Allstate ads. Which leads me on a tangent… How in the world can all these insurance companies possibly afford all this advertising? Without doing the actual tallying, I suspect I am exposed to three hours of insurance ads every Saturday and again every Sunday as camp in the man cave watching football. There are billboards everywhere, and insurance ads dominate the radio airwaves as well. All those ads cost money, and the prolific nature of the ads suggests to me that these insurance companies are making way too much money if they can afford all those outrageous advertising budgets. How about cutting back on the ad time and lowering my premium a few bucks? I’m healthier now than I ever have been, I don’t smoke, don’t drink much, don’t do drugs of any kind, eat (mostly) healthy and exercise regularly. How can they possibly justify raising my rates nearly 40% over the last three years? Does moving to Texas make me that much more of a risk than living in Michigan? Does losing 15 pounds and cutting my body fat percentage in half really make me more of a liability to insure? Why is it more expensive for me to insure my 5-year old car than for my wife to insure her brand-new one when I haven’t had a ticket or accident in this century and she’s had two of each in the last 8 years? Why did my homeowners insurance costs continue to skyrocket as the value of my actual house plummeted? I have long maintained that Geico is nothing more than an elaborate money laundering scheme for Warren Buffett, and that all insurance is a scam and negative investment for the cast majority of people between the ages of 18 and 60. All this omnipresent advertising only reinforces my delusional, baseless accusations. Back to the game…Steelers win easily, 33-10. Buffalo (23) at New York Jets (18): People who know me well know that I am a man of few hates. I genuinely do not feel a great deal of hatred and outward animosity towards many things. Among the very few things that really tick me off: people that go under the net in volleyball, the Steve Miller Band, hypocritical religious types, and Will Ferrell movies. This game unfortunately features another--completely irrational, myopic sports homers. That would be the typical Jets fan, those that still give alms at the feet of Rex Ryan and insist the Jets defense is freakin’ awesome, yo. To be fair some Jets fans are seeing the light, but it really bothers me how sycophantic some of these meatheads can be. Your beloved loudmouth coach has been outcoached in several games this year, and player development under Ryan has been negligible at best. The defense, the jewels in his crown, is just not as good as advertised. It’s a solid unit but far from the dominant force they’re often portrayed by their fans, who think they have a combination of the 85 Bears and 2000 Ravens. I sense my blood pressure will rise after this one, because the Jets figure to snuff out what little playoff light is left in Buffalo. It’s precisely these sorts of games that feed into the Ryan folklore, catching struggling opponents at just the right time and looking very good in vanquishing them. Remind me to not listen to sports talk radio on Monday, when the Ryan fanboys dominate the airwaves and we are forced to bask in the greatness of the Jets and how this is the beginning of their improbable, heroic playoff rally. It’s not; it’s just a home win over a slumping division rival that doesn’t match up well even when playing at the top of its game. Jets 27, Bills 20. Dark Meat Washington (27) at Seattle (21): The Ethnic Slurs played their hearts out last week in the emotional overtime loss to Dallas. That was at home against an inconsistent division rival. This game sees them traverse across the country to play a Seattle team that is playing better now that Tarvaris Jackson is relatively healthy and settled in at quarterback. However, it has been the Seahawks defense that has really risen up; no NFC team allows fewer yards per play, and that number continues to trend positively for Seattle. Rex Grossman was largely Good Rex last week, which means Bad Rex is bound to rear his ugly head sooner than later. It’s hard to picture a Mike Shanahan team losing 7 games in a row, but the erratic play of their secondary, anemic running game, and all the injuries have sapped this team of its competitive mojo. Seattle 27, Washington 16. Minnesota (29) at Atlanta (7): I like the concept of Minnesota as a spoiler, but with Adrian Peterson iffy with a gimpy ankle it’s real hard to see them pulling it off. Doing it in Atlanta, where Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense plays at a much more consistent, productive level makes it even more unlikely. Starting a rookie QB in Christian Ponder, who continues to struggle with accuracy and timing on the passing routes behind a porous pass blocking line that has given up 12 sacks in three weeks, makes it near impossible. This figures to be a good week to have Roddy White in salary cap fantasy football games, and Michael Turner should get at least 80 yards and a touchdown too. Atlanta just has too much firepower and responds too well at home for the Vikings to knock them off. Falcons 30, Vikings 14. Cleveland (26) at Cincinnati (12): There is palpable anger in Cincinnati over the controversial Jermaine Gresham disallowed touchdown and some other lopsided officiating. The players and coaches will never admit to it, but they feel cheated. They also feel desperate, as their playoff hopes have taken a big hit with consecutive losses to Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Despite that desperation and anger, this Bengals team carries itself with a determined poise and sense of purpose. Marvin Lewis gets a lot of flak for his coaching style, but his temperament is perfect for the situation his team is in right now. They also have the much more talented and deeper roster, and that won’t hurt either. The Browns have shown a feint pulse offensively, and Greg Little is rounding into a pretty solid weapon for Colt McCoy. But this Cincy defense will be ready to unleash some punishment, and Mike Zimmer’s scheme is perfectly designed to stop Cleveland’s dink-and-dunk offense. Bengals 20, Browns 6. Tampa Bay (24) at Tennessee (17): I am very curious how the Buccaneers respond this week. They played their best game of the year last week, giving the Packers a real scare before valiantly going down by nine points. That has to weigh on the psyche, knowing that your absolute best wasn’t even within a touchdown of Green Bay on a day where the Packers played (for them) poorly. With Tampa being so young and with unquestioned leader Josh Freeman continuing to make careless mistakes, I think the Bucs could be on the precipice of a complete collapse here. Freeman has alternated good and bad outings all season long. Freeman’s QB rating pattern: 79.5, 91.2, 56.8, 94.7, 43.4, 95.9, 51.4, 103.5, 33.6, 96.6. Last week was the good Freeman, and that portends very bad things for this game because the fluctuations continue to trend wilder. I’m not good enough at math to figure out the exact QB rating based on the pattern, but I expect it to be in the 30’s. Teams simply do not win on the road when the QB can’t top the late November temperature with his rating. Titans cruise with Matt Hasselbeck 28-13, but if Jake Locker plays more than half the game it tightens to 24-20 Titans. Houston (6) at Jacksonville (31): The Matt Leinart era begins for Houston, and the former USC golden boy probably couldn’t ask for a better place to start. The Jaguars just surrendered a 92.2 QB rating, 70% completion percentage, and 8.3 yards per attempt to Colt McCoy and the heretofore punchless Browns. Leinart gets Andre Johnson back to give a huge shot in the arm to the Houston offense. The Jaguars rank dead last in almost every passing stat metric, and the Texans amazingly have the #1 overall pass defense. Leinart might not have to throw more than 15 times and the Texans can still outscore Blaine Gabbert and his misfit band of underwhelming receivers. This could be one of the fastest games played in years, as both teams run the ball more than they pass it and will try to protect their weaknesses at quarterback. I respect the hell out of Mo Jones Drew, but he’s not quite as good as Arian Foster. Factor in Ben Tate and his 1000+ yard pace, and the Texans just have too much even in a ground-based slugfest. I look for Leinart to complete just over 50% of his passes, connect with Johnson for a long TD, and hand off to Foster and Tate at least 35 times as the Texans roll 27-3. Early Fruitcakes Carolina (28) at Indianapolis (32): There was a lot to like from Carolina last week. Even though they surrendered a massive comeback to the Lions, I thought the offensive line played well, the running game looked solid, and the special teams were tight. Putting up 35 points in Detroit is an impressive feat. They might not be able to match that at Lucas Oil Field, but they shouldn’t need to. The Colts remain an offensive disaster, more broken than a bye week can possibly remedy. Carolina 30, Indianapolis 17. Arizona (25) at St. Louis (30): This game has lots of importance for draftniks…and nobody else. The loser here is in the driver’s seat to be the last place team in the worst division in football and pretty much locks up a draft pick no higher than 4th overall in each round. This is more critical than it might first appear, as these are the two teams picking near the top that have no real need for a quarterback, as Sam Bradford and Kevin Kolb are being well-paid to be The Man in St. Louis and Arizona respectively going forward. As neither team is going to sniff the playoffs, it might be advantageous to lose this game. And which team do I think is more apt to lose the game, as opposed to winning it? That would be the home team. Arizona’s defense has been playing better the last month, and that includes a victory over these Rams where St. Louis moved the ball very effectively but struggled to cash in opportunities. That is an ongoing theme, as the Rams have scored more than one offensive touchdown in just two games this year. The Cardinals are the much better team in red zone offense and defense, and also on third downs. And I cannot believe I spent so much time researching and forecasting this dog of a game. Cardinals fly in St. Louis, 20-16. Monday Nighter NY Giants (11) at New Orleans (3): Tom Coughlin’s Giants teams have a prolonged history of playing their best when least expected. This is certainly one of those cases, on the road against a very explosive New Orleans team after losing in sullen fashion to the underdog Eagles last week. The run offense was putrid, with Brandon Jacobs repeatedly plunging directly into the backs of his linemen, who were routinely being pushed backwards. Giant receivers struggled to catch the ball, and special teams and coverage breakdowns doomed the G-Men to a loss that robbed them of outright first place. The schedule features New Orleans, Green Bay, and Dallas over the next three weeks, and most folks would expect the Giants to lose all three. I’m here to tell you New York is going to win one of those games. But I don’t think it will be this one. They have no answer at all for Jimmy Graham, the best receiving tight end in the league. They have no answer for Darren Sproles shifting and darting out of the backfield. They have no answer for Devery Henderson running “9” routes over the top of Graham. Even though Jacobs should find easier sledding against a malleable Saints D-line, New York is not going to outgun New Orleans by ramming a 260-pound running back 28 times when their own defense is giving up yards and points by the bushel. An upset would not surprise me, but I think the Giants are saving that for another week. Nudge nudge, wink wink, say no more…Saints 32, Giants 27. College Games In my master plot to get Virginia Tech into the BCS title game, I laid out four upsets that must happen. Two of those came last week, when I correctly forecast upset wins by USC and Baylor. Now it is time for Arkansas and Auburn to do their parts, although I’m not picking either to happen. The Hokies are in some trouble holding up their own end of the bargain against Virginia and national Coach of the Year Mike London, who has a Virginia team with 3-win talent poised to make the ACC title game with a win over their in-state rival. This is one of the best slates of college games I can ever recall. I’m not even including some great rivalry games here: Texas/Texas A&M, South Carolina/Clemson, Stanford/Notre Dame, Pitt/West Virginia, all of which have serious bowl implications. LSU 27, Arkansas 24 Alabama 30, Auburn 6 Virginia 20, Virginia Tech 17 Michigan 22, Ohio State 20 in the Wolverines first victory over the Buckeyes in nearly 3000 days. Sorry Dad. Tulsa 56, Houston 54. G.J. Kinne outshines Case Keenum and ruins the Cougars’ BCS dreams. Kinne is one of my favorite late-draft sleepers this year. Wisconsin 17, Penn State 15 for the Big Ten Leaders division title.