Last Week: 7-7, pushing the season forecast to 84-48. The Joe Paterno situation has boiled over, with his firing setting off riots in Happy Valley. I’m proud of the PSU trustees for making the right decision, even as locally unpopular as it might be. Paterno was complicit in allowing a sexual predator to keep attacking children and that deserves more punishment than mere firing. I hope this haunts Paterno for the rest of his life, but I also really hope it helps give the victims a sense of justice. Considering the way Paterno has reacted to this scandal, it’s quite obvious the man is completely detached from reality and probably has no clue. I find it very fitting that a man well known for his thick glasses has such a myopic view of the world. My old friend Ray Conrad reminded me of a very apropos quote. It comes from John F. Kennedy, “There are risks and costs to action. But they are far less than the long range risks of comfortable inaction.” Paterno repeatedly ignored chances to right a wrong, and to help a friend in obvious need. His selfish, delusional comfortable inaction has caused this great conflagration that threatens the future of the one thing Paterno valued above all else, his beloved Penn State football program. Thursday Night Oakland (18) at San Diego (15): These AFC West rivals enter the first Thursday nighter in desperate straits. After seemingly finally shaking the well-deserved rep of being slow starters, the Chargers bolted out to a 4-1 record and it appeared all was fine. Then came a 3-game losing streak where Philip Rivers has been a turnover machine and the defense has surrendered at least three touchdowns in each game. Oakland was humming right behind them at 4-2, then made the blockbuster trade to bring in Carson Palmer. They’ve now lost two in a row as Palmer has thrown as many INTs as quarters played (6) and the defense has given up 440 yards rushing in those two games. There are key injuries on both sides, none more important than Oakland running back Darren McFadden, who will miss this game. Michael Bush and Taiwan Jones have not been bad in his stead, but McFadden was a threat to take every carry to the house. The offense misses that explosiveness. I do expect that Palmer will continue to sharpen, and he did make some very nice throws a week ago against Denver. But the Chargers pass rush is perking up, and over the past few seasons Palmer has shown an alarming propensity to ignore the safeties in coverage when pressured. Plus, I really don’t like the way the Raiders used TJ Houshmandzadeh. He played a decent game but it came at the expense of Darrius Heyward-Bey, a much more dynamic receiver that was finally starting to come into his own. Housh might make Carson Palmer feel more comfortable, but he also makes the defense more comfortable knowing he cannot run a route longer than 12 yards down the field. This is a very intriguing time for Oakland. The shock of Al Davis dying is past, and now they appear to be in the throes of listlessness in grief. The emotional buzz looks like it has worn off and now they have come to the reality that the man responsible for everything Silver and Black is no longer guiding them. That is an awful burden. I can see them snapping out of it with a convincing win here, but doing it on the road against a talented squad is a tall order. The ineptitude of the Raiders run defense makes it even taller. San Diego 33, Oakland 21. Sunday Best NY Giants (3) at San Francisco (6): The Niners should be a bigger story with their impressive 7-1 record and utter domination of the hapless NFC West. But most pundits are hesitant to give them a great deal of respect because of the lack of a signature convincing victory over a strong opponent. This is their golden opportunity to prove to the football world they are to be taken seriously, that the Alex Smith progress is legit, that the top 10 defense has real teeth, that Jim Harbaugh is a coaching savant. I’m not sure they can pull it off, but that opinion has more to do with my respect for the Giants than it says about the Niners. Eli Manning is playing on the top of his game, and even with Hakeem Nicks hobbled he has a barrage of weapons at his disposal. Victor Cruz, Mario Manningham, and even plodding TE Jake Ballard have emerged as guys that Eli trusts. I also really like how well the Giants offense functions in the fourth quarter, where Manning has a league-best QB rating of 121.7. San Francisco has a strong defense, but the fourth is statistically their weakest quarter. Some of that is attributable to letting up a bit in mop-up duty, but the way New York plays with confidence and precision in crunch time provides a major challenge. I also like the Giants defense to make life very difficult for the San Francisco offense. The Niners and Giants have almost freakishly similar pass defense stats with one notable exception: sack percentage. New York gets sacks on almost 7% of opposing dropbacks, while the Niners record sacks on just under 4%. The Giants also lead the league in generating QB pressures and hurries. Alex Smith’s renaissance has been a wonderful development, but he has yet to thrive against a defense like this. New York plays a very similar style to Detroit, with a great front four doing all the pass rush work. In the Detroit game, Smith struggled to less than four yards per attempt and threw for just 125 yards, one TD and one INT, and converted just two of 14 third downs. I see numbers pretty similar to that here. That just won’t be enough to outscore the Giants, even with Frank Gore likely chugging out another 115 yards on the ground. New York 22, San Francisco 20. Sunny Skies Detroit (8) at Chicago (12): As much as I want to harken back to the Monday Night Football matchup at Detroit a few weeks ago, I think this game will bear very little resemblance to that Detroit domination. I do think the Lions front four presents a major challenge for the improving Chicago line, but considering how well Jay Cutler played in the last meeting under extreme duress, I think the Bears offense will be just fine. I anticipate the Lions hit-and-miss offense will need some time to shake off the bye week rust, and other than one giant play to Calvin Johnson the Bears defense handled Matt Stafford pretty well. The main culprit on that long pass play was safety Chris Harris, who is now the third safety…for the Lions. I like the Lions giving Kevin Smith another go around, but he is nowhere close to the gamebreaker that Jahvid Best was, and it was Best’s 13 yards per carry that carried the Lions last time around. The Lions might not run for 13 yards in the entire second half in this one. Bears exact revenge with a 30-10 home pounding of the Lions. New England (13) at NY Jets (11): New England has lost two in a row and their seeming preternatural grip on the AFC East, as their offense has sputtered and their defense is unable to compensate. The primary reason for the offensive decline is how Pittsburgh and the Giants have played the passing game, with tight press man coverage and shallow safeties undercutting the middle. That has disrupted Tom Brady’s timing, and the Patriots lack anyone who has the speed and downfield acumen to lift the lid off the short-area smothering. Now they have to play the Jets, who have the best press cover man in the game in Darrelle Revis and two other corners, Antonio Cromartie and Kyle Wilson, that are better the closer they are to the line of scrimmage. That sure seems like a big problem for New England. Wes Welker is still capable of impressive numbers--he caught 9 for 136 yards against the Giants--but none of the other wideouts are doing anything. I think the world of Bill Belichick and I love their tight ends, but when the best deep threat on the team is 265 pound TE Rob Gronkowski, it makes it a whole lot easier for the safeties to focus on tackling Welker right after the catch. Then there is the matter of stopping the Jets. The Patriots horrid pass defense has actually improved the last couple of weeks, but it still cannot get stops when needed most. The Jets feature one of the best clutch receivers in the league in Santonio Holmes. Mark Sanchez is looking more comfortable as the line in front of him has stabilized, and the running game continues to increase productivity. If the Patriots load up to hammer Shonn Green and the run, The Sanchize can burn them with Holmes and nifty rookie slot man Jeremy Kerley (good low-budget fantasy play). If they try to keep Patrick Chung and the safeties more involved in coverage, the Jets have no qualms about pounding the ball at a D-line in flux. I really do see the matchup models favoring the Jets, and when I factor in the confidence that Rex Ryan has instilled in his vassals at knocking off the Patriots, the Jets look pretty sunny here. New York 30, New England 27. Pittsburgh (4) at Cincinnati (7): I’m normally not one to support when an employee mouths off to his superiors about perceived injustices, but I will defend Ryan Clark in his battle against Roger Goodell over the fines levied against him. Clark got fined $40K for a hit that every high school coach in America would applaud and teach, leading with his shoulder into a receiver at the exact time the ball arrived. It’s not Clark’s fault the receiver chose to duck and misjudged the height of the throw after Clark had already started his action. Why not fine the stadium grounds crew when a player runs into a goalpost, or fine the punter when the punt return man gets clobbered instead of making a fair catch? When will this progressive wussification of the game stop! I like what the Bengals have accomplished thus far, but I really fear the angry bear that is the Pittsburgh Steelers. I could break it down all sorts of ways, but the bottom line is that this Pittsburgh team is too talented, too motivated, and too focused to lose, even in Cincinnati against a Bengals team that can largely match them in physicality. Expect a bloodbath in the trenches and points to be few and far between. Steelers 17, Bengals 13. New Orleans (2) at Atlanta (9): This game is a complete push according to the bookmakers, a true pick ‘em. And I’ll admit to having no real inkling which team will win. I like what I have seen from Atlanta in their three-game win streak, particularly with the pace of their offense. But the Saints are not a good opponent to try and beat in a track meet, and for all the notoriety of how well Matt Ryan plays at home, New Orleans playing in a dome is a valid counterbalance. Just sticking my finger into the wind, I think Atlanta is in a very good spot. The defense is playing with more cohesion and confidence, and the pass rush has perked up a bit lately. Julio Jones’ breakout performance last week has to inspire the offense, and New Orleans losing Tracy Porter to a scary-looking neck injury increases the chances Jones finds similar success. With all that is riding on this game--the Saints can effectively lock up the NFC South with a win, but the Falcons seize first place with a victory of their own--it’s a little edge like that which can make all the difference. With very low confidence, I’ll take the Falcons at home. Atlanta 30, New Orleans 27, perhaps in overtime. Pleasant Autumn Afternoon Houston (10) at Tampa Bay (21): In my Bucs season preview, I openly questioned the strategy of placing so much draft emphasis along the defensive front with so many injury questions hanging over the players. Here’s a midseason follow-up: In his six-plus games, 2010 #2 overall pick Gerald McCoy has registered one sack and 11 tackles. Fellow second-year DT Brian Price has those exact numbers after eight games. First round rookie Adrian Clayborn has 15 tackles and 3 sacks so far, while 2nd rounder DaQuan Bowers has eight tackles. To put that in perspective, the last two first and second rounds have produced 45 tackles and 5 sacks in 8 games amongst four players. That is less than Saints safety Roman Harper, who has 56 tackles and six sacks yet most Saints fans would argue he’s the weak link in their secondary. Cardinals DE Calais Campbell has 43 tackles and 6 sacks on his own. Now the presumed best of the lot, Gerald McCoy, is gone for the season (again) with a torn biceps. Price has battled with recovering from a hip injury that washed out his rookie campaign after three games, and Coach Raheem Morris called out his play as “very unacceptable” in a radio spot this week. Clayborn has been decent, but his numbers are lower than second rounders Brooks Reed (whose four sacks will be on display here) and Jabaal Sheard or 5th rounder Pernell McPhee, none of whom have played nearly as many snaps as Clayborn. Bowers has been better at dropping into coverage than at getting into the backfield, not exactly the hallmark of a 2nd round supposed pass rushing specialist. If you are looking for a reason why the Bucs have stagnated, look at their Millen-esque, quixotic fixation with drafting one position group…and still needing help at that position. Houston runs away with a 27-17 road win. Buffalo (14) at Dallas (17): Frequent readers know I like to play the “guess the line” game before the books release the numbers. I had this one penciled in as Dallas giving one to Buffalo, maybe 1.5 as it is at Jerry’s World. So when I saw the opening line was Cowboys -5.5, I immediately wondered what the bookies are seeing that I am not. I know they always give the Cowboys an extra point just because of their popularity with the casual bettors, but that still leaves a field goal between what I expected and what is reality. I suspect the bookies are looking at Dallas coming off a win and the Bills reeling from losses to both New York teams in the last three weeks. But I recall the prior Dallas game, a 34-7 thrashing by Philadelphia, a team with weapons in both the running and passing games. Buffalo doesn’t have quite the dynamic weaponry a Philly, but Fred Jackson, Stevie Johnson, David Nelson et al make for a real challenge. I also lack confidence in Tony Romo throwing against a secondary that does a great job of creating turnovers. Romo has shown a nagging propensity for making the big error at the most inopportune time. So I really like the Bills to cover the 5.5 points. The question is, will they win the game straight up? The Cowboys are 3-1 at home and the loss was the epic collapse to Detroit, a game they led by three touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Buffalo has played just three road games, dropping the last two in Cincinnati and New York (Giants). Those clouds tell me the Cowboys will prevail. Dallas 31, Buffalo 29. Baltimore (5) at Seattle (26): If ever there was a game that met the definition of “trap”, it’s this one for the Ravens. Coming off an emotionally draining last-minute comeback victory over the hated Steelers Sunday night, Baltimore travels across the country to Seattle before heading home to face the first-place Bengals in a major AFC North battle. The Seahawks are 2-6 and have produced just two touchdowns in their last three games, all largely punchless losses to Cleveland, Cincy, and Dallas. The trap is set! Two reasons why I like the upset: -- In their other two major victories this year (PIT and HOU), the Ravens have fallen flat the next week. Losses at Tennessee and Jacksonville negated any and all momentum. In short, this team has yet to show it can handle the emotional highs. -- The Seattle defense is playing pretty well and is markedly better at home; they surrender fewer yards per play at home than Baltimore’s vaunted D allows on the road. Prove to me you can handle success, Joe Flacco. I still don’t believe you can. Seattle 20, Baltimore 16. Cold November Rain Arizona (29) at Philadelphia (19): This was supposed to be Kevin Kolb’s triumphant return trip to Philly after the Eagles dealt him to the desert before the season. But Kolb is hurt and unlikely to play, which means John Skelton gets another opportunity to prove he is not an NFL quarterback. That’s a little unfair, as Skelton played reasonably well last week, but the jump in degree of difficulty from the Rams decimated pass defense to Philly’s pass rush and secondary is like going from playing Scrabble against a 12-year old to playing against the 12-year old’s English teacher. The Eagles should come out with a tremendous sense of urgency, frantically hoping to salvage their season. Considering Arizona has had major problems covering receivers with less talent than Philly has, though I’m interested to see if Desean Jackson can get back in the good graces with the Eagles. He has clearly fallen behind Jeremy Maclin on the pecking order, and I’m not sure he is wired to handle that very well. This is a great opportunity for him to win back the love. Eagles 31, Cardinals 17. Tennessee (20) at Carolina (22): Of the three rookie QBs coming off a bye this week, my greatest interest is in what Cam Newton does. Newton has been largely successful thus far, and I am curious to see how much more the Panthers coaches give him to digest. Even though he has shown he can throw the ball all over the field, the playbook has still not completely opened up. Now they have had a chance to tailor things more to his skillsets and what he has shown he can do well. That makes this Carolina offense all the more dangerous. There is no statistical backing for believing this, but I like the concept of decent rookie QBs coming off bye weeks having a big game. I think the mental break and the chance to catch a breath is a major positive for an inexperienced signal caller, and I expect the speed of the game to slow for them. Because Newton has a decent line and a strong running game to help him, I think he will have a real big game in this one. The Titans have dropped three of four and appear decidedly mediocre, the kind of team that an inspired unit can vanquish but good enough that they’ll pull an upset or two the rest of the way on unwary favorites. Carolina will be inspired at home off a bye, even if a bit rusty to start. Panthers 24, Titans 20. Denver (24) at Kansas City (16): The Broncos coaching staff really found something with the option run. For all of Tim Tebow’s flaws as a quarterback, he is exceptional at running the option, easily the best in the league. Granted 95% of current NFL quarterbacks have never run a single option play in their NFL careers, but that is part of why I like it even more. It’s a primitive play that no defense ever practices against and most teams lack the personnel to even run it at a rudimentary level if they want to practice it. Tebow has a blessed sense of timing and understanding how to read the defense, knowing exactly when to pitch the ball or turn it up himself. Most NFL linebackers and ends don’t understand the containment principles, and with the state of tackling as rampantly putrid as it is around the league, I honestly think this Tebow option thing can be very successful for the rest of the year. It is certainly a viable weapon against the Chiefs, who gave up almost 100 yards to Reggie Bush last week. They also made Matt Moore look like Dan Marino, only better; Moore’s 147.5 QB rating last week is higher than all but one game in Marino’s lengthy Dolphins career. I don’t know if Tebow can notch even half that rating, but as long as he takes care of the football I think Denver can outscore Kansas City. That happens to be another thing Tebow does well, as he has thrown just one interception and lost one fumble in his three games. By way of comparison, Chiefs QB Matt Cassel has thrown nine INTs and lost two fumbles. Run with the Tebow magic, people. Denver 23, Kansas City 20. Washington (25) at Miami (28): Miami caught Kansas City napping last week and bolted to their first win, with Matt Moore earning AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors. Moore was great in large part because the Chiefs pass rush was pathetic; they recorded just two QB pressures and zero sacks in Moore’s 23 attempts. Washington is in the throes of a major collapse, but the one thing they still do well is rush the passer. I expect Moore to go back to looking like, well, Matt Moore…or John Beck, the Ethnic Slurs own largely inept QB. Call that matchup a push. Miami has the better running game, the better receiving corps, and a much better turnover ratio over the last month. Make it two in a row for Tony Sparano, enough to provide him some dignity but not near enough for him to keep his job into next year. Dolphins 17, Ethnic Slurs 13. I’d Rather Clean the Garage St. Louis (30) at Cleveland (31): Want to know why I rank the Browns worse than the Rams, even though Cleveland has 3 wins to St. Louis having just one? Lack of firepower. The Browns rank dead last in runs of 10 yards or more with just 8 in their eight games. They have only one run longer than 20 yards. The NFL average is just under 23 runs of 10 or more yards. Rams RB Steven Jackson has 10 by himself in just two games and one play of a third. So the Browns have no real running threat, which means they need to generate offense with the passing game. But only the Jaguars have fewer pass plays of 20 yards or more. The Browns have just 4 of those in their last 3 games. Aaron Rodgers averages that many per half in Green Bay. The Browns have fumbled on their first possession in each of their last two games. Colt McCoy averages just 5.7 yards per attempt, but what really kills the offense is that the Browns rank dead last in YAC average. It is a dink and dunk offense with no playmakers. The Rams are not much better, but they do have Jackson. Given the way the Texans gashed what had been a pretty solid Browns defense last week, I like Jackson to break free for a least a couple of long runs. That should be enough on a cold, damp, dreary day on the shores of Lake Erie. Rams 13, Browns 9. Jacksonville (27) at Indianapolis (32): This is Indy’s best, and perhaps only, chance to win a game this year. It seems like many are rushing to that bandwagon, perhaps smitten with how Miami seized the day against Kansas City last week. I would caution you to sit out that ride. The Jaguars have played the Colts well even when Peyton Manning was in his prime. Jacksonville has a respectable defense that features a resurgent Rashean Mathis and a career year from vagabond Dwight Lowery, reborn as a pretty good cover safety. The Colts have absolutely no answer for Mo Jones-Drew, Deji Karim, and the Jaguars running attack. Even though Blaine Gabbert continues to struggle throwing the ball down the field, he should find some openings in the porous Indy secondary. I like that the Jaguars are coming off a bye week, which gave Gabbert a chance to catch his breath a little. Indianapolis will not go down without a major fight, but they really do not match up well with what the Jaguars like to do. Unless Dwight Freeney turns back the clock and the special teams can make a game-changing play or two, the Colts will stay winless. Jaguars 20, Colts 17. Monday Nighter Minnesota (23) at Green Bay (1): Minnesota kept the first meeting close thanks to Jared Allen’s incredible pass rush and the crude effectiveness of rookie QB Christian Ponder creating opportunities for superhuman Adrian Peterson. Now Ponder has had a bye week to get fully acclimated to starting and taking all the first-team reps. The Vikings are extremely healthy and rested, which could mean another monster game for Peterson. And even when the field is tilted so decidedly towards Green Bay, the Vikings take this rivalry seriously and I expect them to be in top form. But that doesn’t mean they have much of a chance to win. Aaron Rodgers continues on pace for one of the greatest seasons in NFL history. His amazing run of games with a QB rating over 110 will almost certainly never be matched, and he stands a great chance of extending it here against a struggling Minnesota secondary. Getting Antoine Winfield back will help the Vikings, but he is just one man. The Packers have a receiving talent overflow, much more than the Vikings can handle. The home crowd will be charged up for a prime time affair against a hated rival. The only thing that might slow down Rodgers is the weather, which does not look appealing. Game time temps are expected to be in the upper 40s and there is a 50% chance of rain, with the winds expected to be in the 15-20 MPH range. That could make throwing the ball down the field more problematic for Rodgers. I expect he will calmly adjust and inflict death by paper cut rather than the usual machete, and both Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings are among the best in the league at running after the catch. The 13.5 point spread seems a little generous to me. I like the Vikings to keep it close enough to cover but not enough to seriously threaten Green Bay’s unblemished record. Packers 36, Vikings 28. On Campus Last week I went 3-2, which is pretty typical for this season. Unfortunately… Virginia Tech 27, Georgia Tech 24 Boise State 33, TCU 18 Georgia 30, Auburn 28 Oregon 42, Stanford 37 Michigan State 21, Iowa 20 Bonus Game: Ohio 37, Central Michigan 24. Go Bobcats!