Last Week: 12-4, a letdown from the past two weeks but still respectable. I at least covered on two of the four misses as well. 145-63 on the season forecast. Thursday Game Jacksonville (24) at Atlanta (7): Not the sexiest of games to kick off the football weekend, but this is not the dog it might appear at first glance. The Jaguars are playing some Tenacious D (humming Wonderboy to myself), and last week they scored on offense, defense, and special teams. Interim coach Mel Tucker has made some minor tweaks to the offense that paid off last week, having Blaine Gabbert take shorter drops and receivers coming out of more motion and flood sets. Gabbert responded with the best game of his young career, much to the glee of Maurice Jones-Drew. Atlanta presents a much stiffer challenge, however. The Falcons defense is much better against the run than the pass, and they have the ability to force Gabbert to try and beat them over the top. Matt Ryan responded to the call for heroism at halftime last week, rallying the team to a huge second half in the win that can only build confidence and momentum. The Jaguars are missing their top three corners and will start Bills castoff (as bad as it sounds) Ashton Youboty and undrafted rookie Kevin Rutland to try and check Roddy White and Julio Jones. The Jaguars also struggle with special teams on the road, and the Falcons need to keep piling up wins so they will be fired up and sharp. Okay, maybe this game is a dog after all…Falcons 27, Jaguars 10. Sunday Best New England (5) at Denver (9): As I alluded to in this week’s $.10, this is the ultimate matchup of good versus evil, of Luke Skywalker against Darth Vader. Tim Tebow and the rebel Broncos face off against Bill Belichick and the mighty Empire, hellbent on sublimation of all challengers. Enough with the religious and Star Wars overtones, this is football! And there are many compelling football angles to this game if you can somehow ignore the Tebow vs. Brady hype. New England’s pass defense is terrible, and more pertinent to this game, they are terrible at down the field coverage. For all of Tebow’s numerous passing faults, he does throw a decent deep ball. He’s also getting Eddie Royal back to bolster the receiving corps, which will help give Tebow more options. When New England has the ball, it will be interesting to see how the Broncos try to handle Rob Gronkowski. The record-setting tight end is a serious matchup problem for anyone, but the Broncos figure to counter him with rookie safety Quinton Carter. Tom Brady sees “rookie” as a giant target, and he is savvy enough to avoid the rush from another rookie, albeit the likely Defensive Rookie of the Year in Von Miller. Brady really only has two targets, Gronkowski and Wes Welker. They have over 55% of the receptions and 60% of the receiving yardage on the year, not to mention 24 of Brady’s 33 touchdown passes. If Champ Bailey can contain Welker, the Broncos can focus their attention on Gronkowski and force Brady to beat them with the liked of Deion Branch and inconsistent Aaron Hernandez. Obviously containing Wes Welker is incredibly difficult, but Bailey has as good a chance as anyone. Then there are the lingering ghosts for the Patriots in Denver. New England has not fared well in the Mile High city, having lost four of their last five. Denver is the only team in the league which has a winning record against Tom Brady, who is 1-5 against the Broncos despite being favored to win every single time. Worse Broncos teams than this one have beaten better New England teams than this one, especially in Denver. Yet I have a hard time seeing Tebow pull out yet another late, dramatic comeback. The Pats have shown vulnerabilities to the lowly Ethnic Slurs and lowlier Colts the last two weeks, not exactly priming themselves for a playoff run. I think Belichick has them turn it up here, on the prominent national stage in full view of anyone watching. Brady has a big day, puts the Patriots out front big early and they grind away a 30-16 road win. The Rest Dallas (18) at Tampa Bay (30): There have been several coaching changes lately, and this game features two other coaches that I do not think will be leading their respective teams in 2012. Jason Garrett has helmed too many late-game collapses to weather the brewing storm in Dallas, while Raheem Morris has learned the hard way that being too close to the players is a recipe for disaster. The way the Bucs have been playing, not even Jason Garrett can blow the game for Dallas. The one positive from all the venom directed at Garrett is that it has taken away much of the misplaced blame at Tony Romo. The Dallas QB is quietly having a fantastic season, with a QB rating over 100 and a 26-9 TD/INT ratio despite having a rotating cast of talent around him. Now he’ll have to guide the offense without Demarco Murray, but I suspect that these Bucs will still have problems slowing Dallas down. Any team that gives up 42 points to Jacksonville, no matter how the Jaguars scored them, is not going to beat a Dallas team unless Dallas beats itself. I think Romo will prevent that from happening in what could be Raheem Morris’ last game as Tampa coach. Dallas 33, Tampa Bay 17. Tennessee (12) at Indianapolis (32): The Titans essentially need to win out to have much of a chance at making the playoffs. Even though they lost last week, I was impressed with their defense and how they contained the high-powered Saints offense. If Jake Locker has to play the full game for the Titans I expect the Colts will cover, but this game is the least likely of the remaining three contests to break into the win column. Stranger things have happened though. I’m not saying, I’m just sayin’…Titans 29, Colts 17. Carolina (25) at Houston (6): The Texans accomplished the goal of winning the AFC South and securing their first-ever trip to the playoffs. They did so with a rookie 3rd string quarterback missing his star receiver, coming from behind on the road to beat another playoff contender in Cincinnati. All that makes this Letdown Sunday for the Houston faithful. This unprecedented 7-game win streak has been held together by a various assortment of duct tape, bent nails, witch hazel and cow saliva. At some point it simply cannot sustain itself any longer and all hell breaks loose. Carolina might seem like an odd choice to be the team to end it, but the Panthers have an explosive offense that can give the Texans trouble. With superb Defensive Coordinator Wade Philips unexpectedly taking a medical leave of absence, I expect the most improved unit in league history to regress a bit. Carolina has not quit despite the losses piling up. Their tenacity is rewarded with a surprising upset in Texas. Carolina 24, Houston 17. Cincinnati (17) at St. Louis (31): There are very few positives to take from this Rams season, but in the spirit of good tidings and great joy here is something for Rams fans to cling to as winter falls on their gloomy season: James Laurinaitis and Chris Long are excellent building blocks on defense. Both are Pro Bowl performers playing largely in anonymity with very little support. Rookie Robert Quinn has demonstrated he can get around the edge and pressure the quarterback. Whomever takes over this team next year--and make no mistake, Steve Spagnuolo will be gone--has some very nice pieces in place defensively. They just need a brand new secondary. And a brand new wide receiving corps. And a new right side of the offensive line. And a new pair of youthful defensive tackles. And a backup QB that can capably run the team for the 3-6 weeks Sam Bradford will miss due to injury. And a team witch doctor that can chase away the evil spirits that bring so many injuries. That’s not too much to ask, right? Bengals 20, Rams 12. Seattle (13) at Chicago (22): Pete Carroll has to wonder how in the world his team blew that game at home against Washington. If they had won that game, Seattle would be 7-6 and in very good shape to nab a Wild Card berth. Alas, they find themselves 6-7 and in need of a fairly sizable (dare I say Tebow-esque?) miracle to make it. That all begins with winning out, and a win here would vault them over the plummeting Bears in the race for that last spot. This is the third trip to Chicago in the last 22 games for the Seahawks, who beat the Bears in Week 7 last year but lost in the playoffs in January. I would say familiarity would make this a tight game, but both teams are vastly different now than the teams which met last year. Seattle has four new starting offensive linemen, three new starters in the secondary, and a bunch of fresh faces making contributions elsewhere. The Bears are without Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, and Greg Olsen, who torched the Seahawks in that playoff game for 116 yards and a TD. With Marshawn Lynch in full beast mode and Seattle getting surprisingly solid play from Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman, the tallest CB tandem in the league, I don’t see any reason to pick the Bears. Pride and a fatigued defense can only do so much for them, and that offense is going nowhere. Seattle keeps the flame flickering with a 23-10 road win. Washington (21) at NY Giants (11): Given the way this season has played out, Washington probably has a better chance than you might suspect. The Giants have a freakish ability to play to the level of competition, while the Ethnic Slurs are strangely competitive for a team that has lost 9 of 10. When Rex Grossman is Good Rex, Washington is not all that bad. They won in Seattle, handing the Seahawks their only loss in the last 5 weeks. They lost to Dallas in overtime after Graham Gano missed a potential game-winning field goal. They led in the 4th quarter against the Jets before collapsing, and last week they legitimately scared the Patriots. Since rookie Roy Helu took over as the feature back, the Skins are scoring almost 10 points more per game than before. …and that might be the problem for Washington; the Giants will take them seriously as a legit threat. After all, Washington already owns a win this year over the Giants, a 28-14 spanking in Week One. No way the Tom Coughlin Giants sleepwalk into this one, not with their divisional destiny in their hands. Washington will keep it close enough to push Eli Manning into a big day. New York 29, Washington 23. New Orleans (2) at Minnesota (29): New Orleans struggled some in the sloppy field conditions against the quality secondary in Tennessee. They will find no such issues this week, playing in the comfort of a dome on synthetic grass against a depleted secondary that ranks in the bottom five in almost every pass defense metric. For you fantasy geeks still fighting in the playoffs, this is a great week to have Jimmy Graham. I think the Saints tight end is good for 8 catches, 95 yards and a touchdown, and I expect similar numbers from Robert Meacham as well. Drew Brees closes in on Dan Marino’s single season yardage record, tacking on another 343 in a 37-17 rout of Minnesota. Miami (23) at Buffalo (27): The Dolphins fired Coach Tony Sparano this week, about six months later than anyone expected. If ever there is a precautionary tale of why letting a coach twist in the wind is a bad idea, look no further than this year’s Miami squad. After flirting with Jim Harbaugh and rumored dalliances with some other bigger names, owner Steven Ross chose to stick with Sparano. The players have known Sparano is a dead man walking all season long, and that undermined his authority and respect. The players will never say that, of course, but it’s human nature and it’s also a proven fact in football. When everyone knows the coach is not going to be around much longer, it’s better to yank the Band-Aid off than to let every individual hair get yanked in a tortuous process that leaves you both bald and hurt. Ross is the sort of owner that will only settle on big game hunting. No rabbits or pheasants need apply; the Dolphins job is not going to the Chan Gaileys or Mike Smiths of the world. I expect we’ll hear about Cowher, Fisher, perhaps Billick, maybe both Grudens. Here’s a name to file away: Les Miles. This is just my pure conjecture, but if LSU wins the national title, Mils has nothing more to prove at that level and will seek a bigger challenge. He has the buzz factor that will sate Ross’ hunger for publicity and fame. As for this game, I think the Bills have one more win in them this year. They’ve lost 6 in a row and eight of their last ten, but they still have enough talent and enough heart to eke one more out. After this one they draw Denver and then finish at New England, so this is the most likely victory left on the schedule. This is a tepid support for Gailey, a genuinely good coach. Bills 28, Dolphins 20. Green Bay (1) at Kansas City (26): Congratulations Romeo Crennel, you are the new head coach of the Kansas City Chiefs! If you want that interim label removed, all you have to do is go out and beat the undefeated, seemingly invincible Packers…with a backup quarterback leading an offense that has scored two touchdowns in the last 15 quarters. That offense has the fewest first downs of any team over the last month, which is saying something in a league that has truly terrible offenses in Cleveland, Jacksonville and St. Louis. Their defense has been game, with Derrick Johnson deserving a Pro Bowl berth and rookie Justin Houston finally making some noise, but it’s not a good enough defense to hold the Packers to scores on less than half their possessions. The Green Bay win streak improves to 20, even without Greg Jennings. Packers 30, Chiefs 12. Detroit (14) at Oakland (19): Even though they play in different conferences, this is basically an elimination game for two teams clinging to sagging playoff dreams. Detroit is in better shape, both healthwise and in terms of keeping the dream alive. The Lions get Ndamukong Suh back from his two game suspension, but just as importantly they also get top corner Chris Houston back in the lineup. They have missed his steadying presence on the back end. This is also likely to be one of the longest games of the season. The Raiders lead the league in penalties, while the Lions are fourth. Both quarterbacks tend to throw incompletions in bunches, and both teams are in the bottom third in converting 3rd downs. Between the whiny antics of Lions coach Jim Schwartz berating officials and the rate at which Raiders players get injured during games, this one might bleed real late. That is especially true if the Raiders fall behind by 30+ points early on, as they have the last two weeks. I don’t think the Lions will get that big of a lead, but with their quick-strike ability I do think they’ll be able to force a lot of Carson Palmer throws. That means interceptions, and that means a Lions victory. Detroit 36, Oakland 28. Cleveland (28) at Arizona (15): As of press time, Colt McCoy is not expected to play for Cleveland after the team improperly handled his concussion. I believe Mike Holmgren when he declares that McCoy wasn’t tested because the trainers didn’t see the hit, but that speaks to a league-wide problem in taking head shots seriously. It appeared McCoy was knocked out cold for a second or two. If the league is truly serious about concussion safety and awareness, someone who did see the hit needs to make sure McCoy got properly evaluated. There is no excuse for that not to happen, and I think it disparages the NFL’s case that they are being proactive in tending to head injuries. Arizona also has some QB concussion concerns, as Kevin Kolb failed to make it through yet another game after getting hit in the head last week. Once again he was capably replaced by John Skelton, who has some Tebow to him. No, he’s not a mechanical trainwreck that likes to run through linebackers, but Skelton has an uncanny knack for pulling out wins without putting up impressive passing numbers like a certain #15. But what has really keyed the surge from 1-6 to 6-7 has been the Desert Swarm defense. Calais Campbell has been great, Daryl Washington and Paris Lenon are quietly emerging as a very good inside linebacking duo, and the secondary has dramatically improved. A unit that ranked in the bottom 5 at Halloween has ranked 3rd in yards per attempt allowed over the last month. The pass rush up front has helped, ranking 5th in the league in sack percentage and is better at home. Facing a largely punchless offense helmed by career backup Seneca Wallace, I think they’ll have more success in this one. Cardinals 17, Browns 10. NY Jets (8) at Philadelphia (20): The unpredictable Eagles make this game very arduous to forecast. If the Eagles team that showed up last week against Miami comes back again, the Jets are in for a long afternoon. The Philly defense can make life miserable for The Sanchize, and Michael Vick’s mobility exposes the Jets issues at outside linebacker. New York will miss safety Jim Leonhard, who did a lot of the little things that don’t show up on the stat sheet, and spying on Vick would be one of those. If Desean Jackson realizes he is playing for a contract, he has the ability to break out. The Eagles do a good job of isolating favorable matchups offensively, and they have such dynamic weapons. They have the ability to outscore the Jets. But they also have the ability to be a chaotic, error-plagued embarrassment. The Jets are playing fairly solid, consistent football during their 3-game win streak, running the ball well and avoiding the dumb mistakes that have marred parts of their own season. If they can get an early lead, I think the Jets can force the Philly fans into full-throated “Fire Andy” mode and run the Eagles off the field. But if the home team tastes early success, look out for a big-time Philly romp. They absolutely have the talent to pull it off. Bet this game at your peril. I think the Eagles are due for a big game and the Jets are due for a letdown, but I don’t have a strong feeling that either will happen here. The Eagles are the very tepid pick. Philadelphia 24, New York 21. Baltimore (3) at San Diego (16): If it’s December it must be time for another San Diego surge in the standings. Philip Rivers has finally gotten around to being the Philip Rivers everyone expected, with seven TDs and no INTs the last three weeks. The offensive line has tightened up amidst some shuffling. Granted that came against some lesser opponents, but this is what San Diego does every year. When the calendar turns to December, the Chargers wake up and play Super Bowl-caliber football. I know it defies logic, but I believe the Chargers will keep the ball rolling against the Ravens. Back to back 24-10 wins against the Browns and Colts have not exactly been impressive, and this team has not been road warriors this year. Going all the way across the country to play a night game against a team just finding its stride, I just don’t think Joe Flacco will handle that real well. The money agrees with me, as the Ravens have gone from 3.5 point favorites to as low as 1.5 at some books even though some 75% of the bets are for Baltimore. Always follow the sharks when they smell blood. Chargers 20, Ravens 17. Monday Nighter Pittsburgh (4) at San Francisco (10): Clouds abound in the forecast model here. Patrick Willis is doubtful for the 49ers, and God only knows what sort of shape Ben Roethlisberger will be in for Pittsburgh. The Steelers will definitely be without James Harrison, who got suspended for yet another illegal hit. That suspension has caused a great deal of consternation amongst Steelers fans, who are almost comically myopic in their view on this one. The defense that Harrison was justified because he thought Colt McCoy was a runner on the play is just asinine. Aside from the fact that a quarterback gets full protection of the “eligible passer” rules as stated in the NFL rule book, McCoy actually threw the ball before Harrison hit him. Harrison took a full step and launched himself head first into McCoy’s jaw after McCoy threw the ball. Of course Harrison never saw him throw the ball because he had already lowered his head and lined up McCoy for the big hit, hence his shock at being called for roughing the passer. It doesn’t matter that McCoy had the ball tucked while he was running, because as long as he remained behind the line of scrimmage he still had the ability to make an eligible throw. If Harrison would have kept his head up as he’s been repeatedly instructed to do, he would have seen the throw and perhaps not aimed so high. Then again that is giving him credit for thinking about what he’s doing, which I’m pretty sure he is in capable of during pursuit. If he used proper tackling form, there would be no suspension and perhaps not even a penalty. Harrison continues to fly through the air head first at targets, and until he stops leading with the crown of his helmet he’s going to continue to rack up fines, suspensions, and perhaps permanent brain or spinal injury. The NFL is trying to protect not just the offensive players from Harrison but also Harrison from himself. Here’s hoping that gets into his thick skull before that skull gets cracked. Conditional prediction here: If Roethlisberger plays the full game, Steelers win 20-13; if Charlie Batch takes more than 10 snaps, San Francisco wins by the same score.