Last Week: 11-5, pushing the season forecast to 156-68. That is 18 games better than last year’s mark at the same point. I hope everyone enjoys a weekend of holiday festivities that includes friends, family, and football! Thursday Game Houston (9) at Indianapolis (32): No team has benefitted from Peyton Manning’s absence more than the Texans. The AFC South champs have been a perennial stat padding dummy for Manning and the Colts over the years. Houston has never won in Indianapolis and has allowed Manning a home QB rating of 133.7 against them. To say that bothers these Texans is an understatement. Even though they don’t technically have much to play for here, slaying that giant monkey on their backs is very powerful incentive for the Texans players. Payback is a very strong motivating factor. I’m not of the opinion that the Colts are suddenly going to rise up and win their final three games after starting 0-13, the way they did in 1986. I lived in Indy at that time and I vividly remember the first victory. A mediocre Falcons team was in town on a terrible bender, having lost seven of eight after starting 4-0, and all week long the Colts had an upbeat attitude. They knew the Falcons had thrown in the towel, but it still took a downright miracle to win. Trailing late in the 4th, the Colts defense forced a punt with a Duane Bickett sack. The Colts blocked the punt, but got flagged for being offsides. Atlanta went back to punt again, and once again the Colts blocked it, with Eugene Daniel picking it up and running it in for a touchdown to put the Colts ahead. I was watching that game at my friend’s house (Hello Haas family of Franklin, IN!) and they went nuts. That whole next week the Colts were gods amongst men in frigid Indianapolis, and they carried a palpable confidence with them. I don’t even remember who they beat the next week but I do recall that the defense was fantastic (I cheated and looked it up, they beat a 4-10 Bills team in Indy). This Colts team does not have that kind of defense, and the Texans are not going to take them lightly. Thanks for indulging my warm trip down memory lane; I had forgotten how exciting a bad football team could be. Texans 24, Colts 10. Saturday Games Arizona (8) at Cincinnati (17): The Bengals have been remarkably consistent to forecast this season; they beat bad teams but lose to good teams. Believe it or not, Arizona is one of the best teams in football over the last two months. They have the same record since November as Green Bay, Houston, and New England, all 6-1 over the last seven weeks. That qualifies them as a good team. The Cardinals have accomplished this with a stingy defense, one that gets off the field. Arizona has the best 3rd down defense in the league over the last two months at just over 30%. They also have the 4th best sack percentage over the last month. This plays into the Cardinals hands, even on the road. The Bengals rank 27th in 3rd down offense over the last month, and their offensive line has allowed more pressure on Andy Dalton lately. Also, the Cardinals have won the last two weeks because of John Skelton, not in spite of him. The big backup QB has thrown four TD passes and completed over 65% of his passes in the last two games in relief of Kevin Kolb. It’s really strange how the team wins with Skelton and loses with Kolb, who has superior numbers across the board but authored almost all their 7 losses. It’s that sort of intangible funkiness that makes me like the Cards, even on the road against a Benglas team fighting for its playoff life. Somehow Skelton finds a way. Cardinals 24, Bengals 20. Oakland (23) at Kansas City (22): My 6-year-old son Layne is trying very hard to grasp the pecking order of football. All season long it’s been drilled into his head that Green Bay is the best team, and I’ve been pretty negative on Kansas City as well. So when the Chiefs shocked the world by upsetting the Packers last week, it threw Layne into a tornado of annoying questions. “Why are you so wrong, Daddy?” he declared from the back seat as we traversed eastern Texas on I-45. “How did that happen? You said it could never happen. You think the Chiefs coach is an idiot. You think the Packers are the best team by a lot. If Green Bay loses to Kansas City and the Jets beat Kansas City (yes, he remembered the Jets beating the Chiefs 37-10) so bad then doesn’t that make the Jets really good too? But you think the Jets are not very good like most people think they are. Do you really get paid to pick games? Can I do it too? How much cash will I get for picking better than you?” All that came out in one fairly unbroken stream of consciousness that had my wife in stitches and me seriously contemplating a violation of Texas open container laws. So I bequeathed this forecast to Layne. His pick: “Kansas City wins 23-15 because they just beat Green Bay and Oakland has all those players hurt and their quarterback makes too many interceptions and you like the new Chiefs coach because he looks like a big bear”. Hard to argue with the mind of a 6-year-old… Denver (15) at Buffalo (26): On Halloween, the Bills were 5-2 and had just shut out the Ethnic Slurs 23-0, while the Broncos were 2-5 and had just lost to Detroit 45-10. Buffalo has not won since while the Broncos have lost just once, last week to the mighty Patriots. Let that be a lesson to making premature judgments on a season at the halfway point! This game is ideally set up to feed the Tebowmania beast. The Bills are atrocious in run defense, giving up over six yards per carry for the last four games. Teams have run against the Bills more frequently in the last month than any other defense (54.6% of offensive snaps), yet the Bills keep getting worse at stopping it. The Broncos run the ball at a higher clip (52.2%) than any other offense, and Tebow is very good at running variations of the option. Bills defenders that struggle to contain the guy they know is going have the ball now have to face not knowing who will be running at them. Good luck with that. Broncos 24, Bills 17. San Francisco (4) at Seattle (11): The Monday night game reinforced a couple of things in my mind about the Niners. Foremost, their defense is very good. Even without Patrick Willis, the best linebacker in the league, they dominated the game against Pittsburgh as they have done several other times this year. Justin Smith has to be in the conversation for Defensive MVP, while Aldon Smith provides more bang per play than any defensive rookie. Their corners are underrated, particularly Tarell Brown. This is a defense that can win playoff games. But that game also showed me that the Niners are lacking on the other side of the ball. Yeah, they had some strong moments against Pittsburgh. But what concerned me was how many times they missed opportunities. Be it a holding penalty or Alex Smith putting the ball a half-count behind where it needed to be, or Frank Gore just not showing the zippy explosiveness from earlier in the season, I do not trust this offense come playoff time. Even though the play fake TD pass to Vernon Davis was masterful (on both ends, Davis sold it very well too), the Niners still have major issues in the red zone. They also rank 31st in 3rd down conversions on the season and the conversion percentage has actually declined in the last month (25%). Seattle has a very good defense of its own, but you probably haven’t heard much about it. These two defenses have almost the exact same efficiency rating (5.03 for SF, 5.04 for Seattle), and Seattle has a young secondary with incredible size. The key to this one will be which team can crack the other defense with the running game. The way Marshawn Lynch has been running lately, I’ll take him over Gore to find success. The Niners have an incredible string of not allowing a rushing touchdown all season, but I think that ends here. Lynch goes for 89 yards and a TD, the home crowd creates issues for the Niners moribund passing offense, and Seattle sets up a potential win-and-in game with Arizona in Week 17. Seattle 17, San Francisco 13. Miami (19) at New England (3): It was a long time ago, but the first meeting between these two teams really stands out. Tom Brady threw for over 500 yards and completely sucked the will to compete from the harangued Dolphins defense. And that was before we all realized that Rob Gronkowski was an amazing, record-setting talent. Since then, Miami has changed quarterbacks and head coaches. Reggie Bush has become a very effective running back, and given how badly New England tackles he could approach 200 yards once again. The Dolphins have been much more respectable and consistent since that game, but I still don’t see any way they stop Tom Brady from throwing for as many yards as he wishes. Brady has thrown for at least 325 yards and at least three touchdowns in six of their last seven against Miami. Put him down for 385 and 4 in a 39-27 Patriots victory that almost assures them of a playoff bye. New York Giants (18) at New York Jets (10): As a response to the incessant hype surrounding this game, the prominent coaches, the controversial quarterbacks, the overrated defenses, and playoff scenarios, I will do nothing more here than provide a score. Giants 27, Jets 20. Now shut up about this game already, ESPN! Tampa Bay (28) at Carolina (24): Before we go and get too carried away with Cam Newton being a surefire star going forward, take heed of the bizarre regression of Josh Freeman. A year ago Freeman was the toast of the league as the top up-and-coming young QB, posting a QB rating over 95 and widely lauded for his decision making and leadership. This year has been a complete trainwreck. Despite completing almost the exact same percentage of throws, Freeman has gone from 25 TDs/6 INTs to 13 TDs/18 INTs and is almost a full yard per attempt behind last season. The Bucs have gone from feel-good story to melodramatic meltdown, and Freeman’s status as franchise QB is now in serious peril. I’m not saying I expect anything like that from Newton, but Freeman was the one thing I really liked about Tampa’s team heading into the season, yet he’s been a major reason why the team has rocketed to the bottom of the NFC South. Eight losses in a row, the beleaguered coach once again calling out poor effort, and offensive linemen not even trying to protect the passionless Freeman are all signs that things aren’t going to get better anytime soon in Tampa. How often do you ever see a quarterback have to get up on his own after getting hit? Yet three times in the loss to Dallas I watched linemen deliberately not help him up, one of them on a play where Davin Joseph almost failed to leave his stance. It’s real bad in Tampa. Carolina will take it. Panthers 30, Bucs 20 but it won’t be that close of a game. St. Louis (31) at Pittsburgh (5): Great opportunity here for the Steelers to rest Ben Roethlisberger and his clearly damaged lower leg. The Rams will start Kellen Clemens at quarterback, the same Kellen Clemens that could not be the #5 QB in Houston. The Texans chose the rotting corpse of Jeff Garcia and the directionally challenged throwing of Jake Delhomme over Clemens. Having said that, Clemens was not the reason the Rams lost last week. In fact, he had better numbers than Sam Bradford produced in all but one game all year. The Rams lost in no small part because they have 16 players on IR, including several key starters (Ron Bartell, Rodger Saffold, Bradley Fletcher, Jacob Bell, Danny Amendola) who were coming off very good 2010 seasons. To quote Slipknot, “All hope is gone”. Big Ben rests comfortably as the Steelers roll to a 27-3 spanking. Jacksonville (29) at Tennessee (20): That thud you heard last Sunday afternoon was the sound of Tennessee’s playoff dreams crashing back to earth. I am very curious how the Titans respond to losing to the previously winless Colts. They gave up over 160 yards rushing to Donald Brown, and now they face MJD, so it’s not inconceivable that the Jaguars can pound the ball down their throats with the NFL’s leading rusher. And Blaine Gabbert has shown some improvement since the Jags shook up the offensive coaching staff, though the team as a whole got blown out by Atlanta last week. I think a lot of what happened to Tennessee last week was Matt Hasselbeck having one of his monthly awful games at the same time the Titans defense came out flat. As long as both don’t happen together again, the Titans should be fine. I would still advise fantasy owners to ride MJD here, but the Titans still have a glimmer of hope to play for and that lifts them up. Tennessee 24, Jacksonville 13. San Diego (14) at Detroit (12): This is one of those forecasts where the models are at odds with what my gut tells me will happen. The indications are that the Chargers will come into Detroit and continue their impressive late-season rally against the mistake-prone Lions. Philip Rivers has finally remembered that he’s a pretty darn good quarterback, and Vincent Jackson has gone back to being a devastatingly effective downfield target. Their resurgent defense has been better at generating pressure, while their own blocking has improved. This is a San Diego team that is accustomed to making these sorts of desperation charges, while the Lions can lose this game and still control their own playoff destiny. So San Diego is the obvious pick. But the more I looked at this game, the more I like the Lions. Aside from the fact I’m a fan of the Lions, I like the vibe surrounding the team right now. They know they have been lucky to be where they are, and Coach Schwartz badly wants a game where the Lions play a complete, smart, physically dominating game from start to finish. It would get the team moving the right way as the playoffs approach and it would also ease up a lot of the tension and criticism that the rabbit-eared Schwartz is clearly tired of hearing and feeling. Numbers also provide some supporting help to the Lions. Matt Stafford is a dominant QB against the AFC West this year. 3-0, 61% completions, 7.9 yards per attempt, 11 TDs, 1 INT, QB rating of 112 that goes up to 127.7 in the second halves of games. Stafford is also much better at home, with 17 TDs against 7 INTs and better completion percentage and red zone numbers. The Lions run the ball for over 5 yards per carry at home, and their defense forces 3 turnovers per game in Ford Field and barely tops one per game on the road. In short, the Lions play better at home and better against the AFC. The way Stafford has been on fire and the way I think the defense is going to try and make a statement, I think the Lions pull it off. It will not be easy, however, but that’s where Detroit’s experience in coming from behind and winning close games by the skin of its teeth will pay off. Lions 30, Chargers 27. Cleveland (27) at Baltimore (6): Cleveland is going to be without Colt McCoy once again, which is probably a positive for his long-term health. Terrell Suggs and the Ravens are motivated to go out and get a first round bye and win the AFC North, and they are going to be angry after getting blown out in San Diego. Perhaps they will remember they have some guy named Ray Rice and let him run more than 15 times. They should have a big enough lead to let Rice get a lot of work in clock-killing duty. The Ravens are back home where they dominate, and dominate they will. Ravens 27, Browns 3. Minnesota (30) at Washington (21): I’m going to continue beating the Joe Webb drum here. Christian Ponder is overwhelmed as the rookie starting QB, forcing turnovers and missing opportunities. Webb is not very accurate, but he brings out the confidence in the players around him. And while Ponder is mobile, Webb is a legit home run threat as a runner. When the conventional sets aren’t working--and they most certainly are not for Minnesota--you can do one of two things. You can continue to try and use the same lame lines on the same hot chicks at the same bar, or you can go to a different bar and present yourself as someone different. Minnesota has chosen to go home lonely, drunk, and bitter to the tune of 12 losses in 14 games. I’m not saying they would be much more successful with Webb at the helm, but at least their fans would know they’re trying to score. Ethnic Slurs 20, Vikings 16. Philadelphia (16) at Dallas (13): Forecasting this game between these two wildly inconsistent teams is an exercise in frustration. I can make all sorts of points one way or the other for either team, but the bottom line is that the team which makes fewer dumb mistakes is going to win. I wish I could be more insightful, but if these teams played 100 times I suspect each team would win 50, and only about 25 of those contests would be close. Philly dominated the earlier contest, a game where Lesean McCoy ran wild and the Eagles defense played its best game of the year. I suspect McCoy will have another big day, but other than Jason Babin getting at least 1.5 sacks the Philly defense is a huge variable. They could stymie Romo, or he could light them up for 415 yards and 4 TDs. Bet on this game at your addicted peril. Cowboys choke away another and the Eagles keep their improbable playoff hopes alive. Philadelphia 33, Dallas 30, perhaps in overtime. Sunday Nighter Chicago (25) at Green Bay (1): We finally get to see how Green Bay responds to unexpected adversity. Coming off their first loss of the season, they face the strong Bears defense with a patchwork offensive line that will be without its top 3 tackles. Kansas City had its way with that line, and Chicago has Julius Peppers, the underrated Israel Idonije, and the still-potent LB duo of Briggs and Urlacher poised to test TJ Lang and Marshall Newhouse, both playing two spots too high on the depth chart as starting tackles. And that draws into question just how much Aaron Rodgers will play, and how much Mike McCarthy will let him do. The hallmark of Rodgers greatness this year is his tremendous accuracy down the field, but with that line against that defensive front it sure seems like seven step drops and 30-yard routes are largely out of the question. Fortunately for the Packers, the Chicago offense is awful. Since Jay Cutler and Matt Forte both went down, the Bears are averaging 212 yards of offense per game, with 12 first downs, 13% on 3rd down conversions, and 3.7 yards per play. All those rank dead last and all are 32nd with a bullet, at least 15% inferior to the teams ranked 30th in every category. Even though the Packers defense gives up yards at a disturbing rate, Chicago is going to struggle. Inserting Josh McCown in place of Caleb Hanie probably results in an extra field goal, nothing more. Green Bay 24, Chicago 10. Monday Nighter Atlanta (7) at New Orleans (2): So I had composed a great write-up for this game. Dare I say, it was genius. Alas, on my way to clicking CTRL-S to save it, I somehow managed to wipe it out. I tried the “undo” button. Fail. I tried searching for the auto-save backup, but I apparently typed it so quickly that only the first few words were salvaged. I became consumed with figuring out what I did and where it went. I tried to replicate the wipeout but none of the keystroke combinations seemed to make it erase what I just typed, and only what I just typed. I searched some internet forums after Googling my dilemma but the mouth breathers that actually post serious help responses wanted money for the answer. I might have been consumed by the need to know but I’m not paying some stranger for advice with a Paypal account that will get hacked 20 times before Christmas, sorry Rajav92…if that’s your real name. Anyways, I was so obsessed and frustrated with losing my piece de resistance that I sort of forgot exactly what I wrote. I don’t believe Matisse would have repainted the entire “The Red Studio” if he accidentally splotched some purple paint where the naked islanders were supposed to be, so I won’t try and do that either. Saints 36, Falcons 28. [email protected]