The first three weeks of the 2005 regular season have provided more than their fair share of unexpected twists and turns. With Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, and Washington comprising three of the league?s four undefeated squads, the Ravens, Raiders, and Packers still awaiting their first victory, and Peyton Manning averaging just one touchdown and 200 yards a game, nothing seems to be playing out as we?d envisioned. Amidst this storm of uncertainty, however, it is still possible to use common sense, statistics, and intuition to identify a number of the fantasy studs - and duds - for the upcoming weekend?s match-ups. Here are my picks and pans for week four: STUDS Carson Palmer ? Cincinnati?s sophomore signal caller has finally lived up to his billing with eight touchdowns and only two picks in his first three starts of 2005. Palmer will continue his success when an 0-2 Houston squad comes to town on Sunday to pick up their third straight loss. Three scores and 280 yards sounds just about right. Michael Vick ? Despite an undeniably exciting style of play, Vick?s fantasy numbers often leave something to be desired. Against a soft Minnesota defense, however, look for Vick to amass 200 yards and two scores through the air, and 80 yards and one trip to the end zone on the ground. Deuce McCallister ? The Saints have struggled in the last few weeks, but so has a supposedly-vaunted Buffalo Bill defense. The unit, which has allowed an abysmal 522 rushing yards in its first three games, will face an underachieving Deuce McCallister in the Alamodome on Sunday. My money?s on Deuce to take it to the house at least once and to roll up well over 100 yards. Jamal Lewis ? The Jets are allowing 134 rushing yards a game, and the Ravens don?t have a quarterback. Lewis has been playing awful of late, but he?ll gets 30-plus carries and run up 160 total yards. Throw in two rushing touchdowns and you?ve got yourself a deal. Kevin Barlow ? Barlow might not be the most consistent performer, but when San Francisco heads south of the border to play Arizona, he should have every opportunity to do so. The Cards have repeatedly folded to opposing backs, allowing 392 yards and seven rushing TD?s in the first three weeks. Barlow continues this trend with one score and 130 total yards. Reggie Wayne ? Peyton will roar back to form in week four with three scores and 300 yards against an overmatched Tennessee secondary. One of the scoring strikes and at least 90 of the yards will go to a previously overlooked Wayne. Steve Smith ? Smith posted an incredible three scores and 170 yards in the Panthers? loss to Miami last Sunday. In week four at home against a Packers secondary that has allowed seven passing touchdowns in 2005, expect more of the same. Look for 100 yards and at least one deep six connection from Carolina?s top wideout. Isaac Bruce ? Against a Giants team that?s allowed nearly 290 passing yards a game and just let San Diego run up 45 points last week, one might be inclined to give Tory Holt the nod in this favorable match-up. While Holt is always a strong play, Bruce could benefit from mismatches and single coverage and amass 90 yards and one touchdown hook-up. Brandon Lloyd ? I might be one week late in jumping on Brandon?s bandwagon, but Lloyd is the real deal, and if you?re lucky, he may still be available on your waiver wire. The 49ers? only consistent fantasy threat will replicate his week three heroics against Arizona with at least one touchdown and 130 yards. Not a bad two-week stretch. Jason Witten ? Witten finally reached the end zone last week and should be on the receiving end of another Bledsoe scoring strike this Sunday in Oakland. The Raiders are yielding 300 passing yards a game ? pencil the Cowboy tight end in for 80. Baltimore Defense ? Brooks Bo ? llin ? ger, clap, clap, clap-clap-clap. Brooks Bo ? llin ? ger, clap, clap, clap-clap-clap. Seriously though, Ray Lewis and the Ravens going head-to-head with the Jets? third string quarterback that?s never started and has only thrown 9 passes in his three-year career? This one could get pretty ugly, so don?t be surprised if a stellar Baltimore secondary snags a couple picks and even runs one or two back. Carolina Defense ? Brett Favre and the fading Packers have looked atrocious in their first three games. Julius Peppers and the rest of a strong Panther secondary should have no problem dispatching Green Bay on Monday night. Carolina won?t allow the Packers to break ten points and should be able to generate a minimum of three or four turnovers. DUDS Drew Brees ? Even without several of its mainstays, the New England defense is one that should be avoided when possible. In their last 20 games, they?ve allowed just one team to break 30 points, and with LaDanian Tomlinson accounting for the wide majority of San Diego?s scoring, don?t expect more than one touchdown pass and 180 yards out of Brees. Brian Griese ? As poorly as the team has played, the Detroit Lions secondary has only given up one touchdown pass in its first three games. In a low-scoring back-and-forth match-up between these two former NFC Central rivals, expect Tampa Bay to prevail without breaking 20 points. Griese gets one score but fails to eclipse 200 yards. Kevin Jones ? Detroit may fare well against passing attacks, but Tampa Bay defends the run even better, allowing a league-leading 51.7 yards on the ground in their first three outings. Jones won?t find the end zone, or break 60 yards and deserves a nice warm seat on your fantasy bench. Domanick Davis ? After averaging just over 50 rushing yards a game and failing to score in his team?s first two contests, Davis? production may get worse before it gets better. Houston meets a stingy Cinncinatti defense in week four and without any real help from quarterback David Carr, look for the Bengals to load up the box and hold Davis under his season average and out of the scoring column. Ahman Green ? The Packers could never have predicted it would be this bad as their nightmarish first three games, but with a trip down to Carolina on Monday Night, it doesn?t look like they?ll be waking up anytime soon. A strong Panther defense should have no problem stymieing quarterback Brett Favre and will hold an underachieving Green to 80 yards from scrimmage. Joe Horn ? The Buffalo defense is allowing just 106.3 passing yards per game. That?s right, 106.3. Aaron Brooks has typically struggled against strong secondaries so expecting Horn to haul in 60-plus yards or a touchdown strike is probably wishful thinking. Darrell Jackson ? Much like Horn, Darrell Jackson faces another strong defense as the Seahawks travel to Washington to face the undefeated Redskins. With Shawn Springs likely lining up across from Jackson, it could be a rough afternoon for Seattle?s go-to wideout. Jimmy Smith ? After rolling up three touchdowns and 220 yards in his first three starts, Smith will struggle against Champ Bailey and an underrated Denver defense. Expect a low-scoring affair with any Jaguar touchdown passes going to Reggie Williams, Ernest Wiliford, or Kyle Brady. Smith will, however, manage around 90 yards on six or seven receptions. Laverneus Coles ? I?m no math expert, but it seems to me that having Brooks Bollinger as your quarterback against a secondary consisting of Chris McCallister, Ed Reed, and Samari Rolle adds up to a disappointing outing. Give Coles the week off. Ben Troupe ? With two touchdown receptions in his first three games, Troupe? stock is quickly rising. Unfortunately for Troupe, the Colts, who?ve only allowed one passing touchdown all year, are coming to town on Sunday. Troupe will be a non-factor with no more than three catches and 40 yards. New England Defense ? While giving San Diego quarterback Drew Brees a starting nod may be unwise, so too might be relying on the Patriot defense against the same Chargers team that posted 45 points just one week ago. What?s more, New England allowed Carolina tailback Stephen Davis to post three rushing TD?s in week two, and will be without veteran safety Rodney Harrison. If possible, look elsewhere for your defense in week four. Dallas Defense ? The Cowboys allowed the San Francisco 49ers to run up 31 points last week before managing to come back for the win. Matching up on the road against Randy Moss and the league?s third-ranked passing offense should produce similar results and will not be pleasant for Dallas owners. For any further fantasy advice, please write the RealGM fantasy football experts at [email protected]. Bring on week four!