We may be four games into the regular season, but from the look of the divisional standings, the cream still appears to be floating somewhere near the middle of the mug. Nothing against Miami, Chicago, and Tampa Bay, but if all three are still leading their respective divisions come Week 17, we may very well be nearing the apocalypse.
As far as individual performers go, it appears that Cadillac has finally come back to earth, Peyton is picking up where he left off, and Carson is, in fact, all that and a bag of chips. Beyond these three fantasy monsters, there are plenty of other players just waiting to break out or shut down in week five ? you just have to dig a little to find them.
Here are some of my lesser-known studs and duds for week five fantasy action:
STUDS
Brett Favre vs. NO ? Favre will silence all of his critics ? at least temporarily ? when he posts a monster game at home to earn the Pack its long-awaited first victory. A mediocre Saints secondary should yield around 250 yards and a trio of touchdown passes.
Matt Hasselbeck @ STL ? Hasselback has struggled thus far, but will post 280 yards and a pair of scoring strikes in a high-scoring NFC West grudge match. The Rams? defense has allowed just two touchdowns and 92 yards per game on the ground compared with eight scores and dismal 255 average aerial yards ? you do the math.
Thomas Jones @ CLE ? Cleveland is allowing 125 rushing yards per game and Chicago has been unable to develop a decent passing attack. Look for Jones to get at least 25 carries, 120 yards, and at least one trip past the pylons.
Stephen Davis @ ARZ ? The Cardinals have allowed a league-high seven rushing touchdowns thus far in 2005. Look for Davis to add to that with 140 total yards and two short scores against an extremely young Arizona defensive front seven.
Rudi Johnson @ JAX ? The Jaguars have been phenomenal against the pass in their first four games, averaging just over 135 yards per outing. Their rushing defense, however, has been another story. Allowing an average of 130 rushing yards a game, look for Johnson to score at least once and easily break the century mark.
Andre Johnson vs. TEN ? Everyone has been ragging on the supposedly listless Texan offense, but no one seems to notice that they?ve faced Buffalo, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati in an arduous first three game stretch. The Titans have allowed 10 passing TD?s so far this year, so I?m betting on David Carr to finally live up to expectations. Johnson will be the main beneficiary and could run up as much as 140 receiving yards and two touchdown catches.
Reggie Wayne @ SF ? San Francisco has allowed a league-high 11 passing touchdowns in its first four games. Peyton will have no problem slicing through the 49er secondary, and Wayne could continue last week?s success with another score and 80-plus yards.
Hines Ward @ SD ? As good as the Charger passing offense has been, their passing defense has been atrocious. Allowing over 250 passing yards per game in their first four match-ups, Ben Rothlisberger should be able to pick the San Diego secondary apart and hook up with Ward for 120 yards and at least one scoring strike.
Alge Crumpler vs. NE ? You might think I?m crazy for rolling the dice against the Patriots yet again, but New England has allowed seven passing touchdowns in 2005, and Crumpler has proven himself as an extremely viable red zone option. Don?t expect more than 80 receiving yards, but another short-yardage touchdown pass is definitely in the cards.
Dallas Clark @ SF ? So maybe I?ve been picking on the 49ers a little bit too much in the past few weeks, but you saw Josh McCown roll up nearly 400 passing yards last Sunday. Now you?re telling me that Peyton?s coming to town? Come on. The emerging Clark gets in on the action with one score and 70 receiving yards.
Tampa Bay Defense @ NYJ ? The Buccaneer defense has been flat out ridiculous in the first quarter of 2005. Look for their average yards to drop even further as the ageless Vinny Testeverde is pulled out of his cryogenic tube and given the start on Sunday. The Jets won?t break ten points, but they should have no problem coughing up the ball a few times along the way.
Detroit Defense vs. BAL ? A bit of a sleeper pick here. Detroit?s defense hasn?t been outstanding of late, but the Ravens offense has been completely miserable. Expect a low scoring affair, and don?t be surprised if the Lions wreak havoc on Anthony Wright and shut down an underachieving Jamal Lewis.
DUDS
Tom Brady @ ATL ? Brady has not been very, well Bradyesque, in his last few starts for New England. He?s been particularly shaken by the strong pressure provided by the Panthers, Steelers, and Chargers in the last three weeks. Unfortunately for the Patriots, the Falcons lead the league with 17 sacks in four games. Against a team allowing just 190 passing yards a game, Brady struggles to break 200 and throws just one touchdown pass.
Brian Griese vs. NYJ ? The Jets defense has been forced to carry the load in its last few outings and the secondary has responded by averaging an impressive 170 yards through the air. With the Cadillac sputtering, Griese will have a tough go to the tune of 180 passing yards, and if he?s lucky, one scoring strike to Michael Clayton.
Willis McGahee vs. MIA ? The Dolphins are one of two teams that have yet to allow a rushing touchdown in 2005. Without any real complimentary passing attack, McGahee continues to struggle against a defense averaging 76.3 yards on the ground per game. McGahee might reach the end zone, but breaking 80 rushing yards is out of the question.
Kevin Jones vs. BAL ? Baltimore is averaging a microscopic 70.3 rush yards per game. Couple that with the fact that Joey Harrington still hasn?t figured out how to use all of his toys, and you?ve got Ray Lewis and Michael Boulware hounding Jones all afternoon long. Look for 60 yards but no rushing touchdowns.
Steven Jackson vs. SEA ? Jackson managed just 17 yards on 10 carries last week and faces an underrated Seahawks defense on Sunday. Despite an opponents? average of over 30 carries a game, Seattle has allowed just one rushing touchdown in its first four match-ups. Jackson should be happy to break 50 yards and will be lucky to even sniff the goal line.
Jimmy Smith vs. CIN ? The Jaguars offense has been entirely reliant on Smith for its scoring so far this year. Unfortunately for them, they line up Sunday against Deltha O?Neal, Madieu Williams, and the rest of a talented Bengal secondary that has snatched 11 interceptions in their first four games. Smith will be smothered and won?t break the 70-yard mark.
Laverneus Coles vs. TB ? Coles has managed just one TD catch an 167 yards in his four starts. He may be Vinny?s only viable option, but I still don?t see him reaching the end zone or breaking 80 yards against a Tampa Bay defense that?s allowed only two passing scores and 160 aerial yards per game in 2005.
Brandon Lloyd vs. IND ? San Francisco?s star wideout appears to have finally emerged from beneath the radar screen, but against a suffocating Indianapolis defensive unit, it would be wise to look elsewhere on Sunday. Lloyd will get more than his share of looks from a frazzled Tim Rattay/Alex Smith, but they won?t add up to more than 80 yards.
Randy McMichael @ BUF ? The Bills haven?t been doing much right so far, but the one thing they have been doing better than everyone else is defending the pass. Allowing a league-best 121 passing yards per game, Buffalo should be all over McMichael at home and should have no problem holding him under 50 yards.
Jason Witten vs. PHI ? Witten has certainly earned his place amongst the league?s elite tight ends, but he?ll get a wake up call in week five against a lethal Eagles defense. Philadelphia has managed five interceptions and eleven sacks, and should be able to terrorize Cowboy quarterback Drew Bledsoe. Witten might manage eight or nine receptions but anything more than 60 yards would come as a surprise.
Dallas Defense vs. PHI ? You?d normally associate Bill Parcells with a strong defensive unit, but with the league?s best offense coming to town, you might want to consider giving Dallas the week off. The Eagles are averaging 432 total yards per game, and could run up 30-plus points.
Pittsburgh Defense @ SD ? The Steel Curtain may be stronger than ever, but in case you missed it, San Diego just hung 41 points on the Patriots at Foxboro. While Brees, Tomlinson, and Gates may not be able to match last week?s output, there?s a good chance they?ll make you regret inserting the Pittsburgh defense in your starting line-up.
That?s all for now. See you next week!
Thinking about starting a deep sleeper? Need advice on a tough trade? Ask RealGM?s fantasy football experts via e-mail at [email protected].
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