You?ve gotta hand it to the state of Florida for their teams? performances in week one. All three of the Sunshine State?s overmatched squads ? Miami, Tampa Bay, and Jacksonville ? pulled off unexpected upset wins against 2004 playoff teams. I would?ve bet on Charlie Weis and unranked Notre Dame to topple Pitt and Michigan on the road in successive weeks before letting my money ride on the six-foot-tall question marks wearing the jerseys of Gus Frerotte, Brian Griese, and Byron Leftwich.
Equally impressive, however, was Mike Nolan?s debut with the San Francisco 49ers, who managed to amass half of their win total from 2004 with a 28-25 victory at home against the heavily-favored St. Louis Rams. Didn?t see that one coming either, did you?
And how ?bout them Saints?
So just as we thought we had everything figured out for 2005, week one rolls around and makes all of the so-called experts look about as informed as the girl who picks March Madness teams based on uniform colors. Now that the convoluted puzzle that is the National Football League is approximately 1/17th clearer, let?s take a look at the best and worst bets for each position for week two fantasy action:
BEST QB BETS:
? If you don?t already know, Peyton Manning should be your starter each and every week ? maybe even when he has a bye. After a slow start, Manning shredded the league?s top defense with 254 passing yards and a pair of second-half touchdown tosses. Expect at least 300 yards and 3 scores from Peyton as he heads back home to face the unpredictable Jaguars.
? He may not have looked pretty unimpressive against that vicious Falcons defensive unit, but make no mistake, Donovan McNabb will have a field day against the feel-good 49ers. Anything less than 3 TD?s and 250 yards would be difficult to foresee.
? Kerry Collins had a coming out party in the first half against the defending Super Bowl champs last Thursday. He?ll follow it up with another strong outing at home against the improving ? yet still vulnerable ? Kansas City defense.
? As if facing his former mentor, Kurt Warner, wasn?t enough, Marc Bulger heads down to Arizona with his head spinning from a shocking 3-point defeat at the hands of San Francisco. Bulger will roar back with 3 scores and 220 yards.
? If Joey Harrington is ever going to live up to expectations, this has to be the week. Playing against the hopeless Bears, Harrington should net two scores and about 200 yards.
WORST QB BETS:
? After chalking up 3 pickles in a surprising week one loss to the Jags, Matt Hasselbeck now faces a stifling Falcon defense that dominated the mult-idimensional Donovan McNabb on Monday night. Take a seat, Matty.
? Brian Griese may be a temporary fix for the Bucs, but facing one of the league?s best defenses in the Buffalo Bills will prove that Griese lacks the gusto to get Tampa over the hump and into the postseason. One lucky score and 150 yards sounds about right.
? Despite putting up some decent numbers last week, Drew Bledsoe now faces a suffocating Skins defensive unit. Just because Dallas always seems to have Washington?s number, I?ll pencil Bledsoe in for one touchdown and 180 yards, but expect a couple interceptions along the way.
? Byron Leftwich may have played well last week against a struggling Seahawks defense, but think twice before starting him in the RCA Dome against the Colts. He?ll likely surpass 200 yards, but after the Jags fall behind early, he?s bound to throw more picks than touchdowns.
? I?ll surprise you a bit by saying Tom Brady will have a difficult go of things against an underachieving Panther defense. I think Carolina wins at home by capitalizing on a few rare Brady mistakes.
BEST RB BETS
? Tennessee just let Willie Parker become the league?s leading rusher on the season. That?s right, Willie Parker. Jamal Lewis will follow suit by amassing 170 yards and reaching the end zone twice.
? Warrick Dunn netted 113 yards against the Eagles. Expect more of the same with a TD run to boot as the Falcons fly up north and shred the Seahawks.
? Willis McGahee is just flat out nasty. Before the end of the year, he might beat out Tomlinson and Alexander for the league?s best back. Look for a couple scores and 125 yards out of McGahee against Tampa Bay on Sunday.
? With the recent off-field problems of back-up Larry Johnson casting a cloud over the Chiefs backfield, look for Priest Holmes to carry the load. If Holmes doesn?t reach the end zone more than once and accumulate 180 total yards, I?ll be absolutely shocked.
WORST RB BETS
? Julius Jones played decently on Sunday against the Chargers, but in Monday?s low-scoring affair against the Skins, he?ll be fortunate to break 80 yards and even luckier if he passes the pylons.
? Don?t jump on the Cadillac bandwagon just yet. Carnell Williams will fail to reach 100 yards and will not score in Tampa Bay?s week two slugfest with the Buffalo Bills.
? In light of recent domestic abuse allegations, Larry Johnson will likely only see limited action on Sunday. Probably a good week to sit him and go sleeper searching.
? If he couldn?t crack the century mark against San Francisco, don?t expect any better this week in Arizona. Expect Steven Jackson to tally 90 yards as his stock continues to drop.
BEST WR BETS:
? Terrell Owens is an easy pick against San Francisco. I see a pair of first half scores and 140 yards in a dominating performance.
? Cincinnati?s Chad Johnson had a quiet nine catch, 91-yard performance against the Browns in week one. He?ll make plenty of noise on Sunday with at least one TD reception and 130 yards against a reeling Viking defense.
? As long as Joey Harrington shows up to play, Roy Williams should have a strong outing in Chicago. One score and 100 yards is as safe a bet as any in Detroit.
? Call me crazy, but the Saints might have that special something. After Deuce McCallister impressive display in week one, look for Joe Horn to haul in two touchdowns and 130 yards against the Giants on Monday night.
? When Javon Walker went down on Sunday afternoon, Donald Driver became the team?s go-to guy. Brett Favre has always had a good relationship with Driver, so expect them to find each other with ease against the rebuilding Browns.
WORST WR BETS:
? When Byron Leftwich is on, Jimmy Smith racks up the stats, but with Leftwich struggling against the Colts, Smith will be silenced to the tune of four catches and 45 yards.
? After making a big statement in week one, Keyshawn Johnson falls back to earth against a strong Redskins? secondary. There?s a small chance he might find the end zone, but expecting more than 60 receiving yards is not in your team?s best interests.
? Drew Bennett owners are in trouble. The Titans have one of the weakest receiving corps in the league, and as opposing secondaries begin to slide safeties over for double teams, his numbers will continue to shrink. Against the Baltimore Ravens in particular, it?d be tough to foresee anything more than 50 receiving yards.
? Darrell Jackson may have found the back of the end zone against the Jaguars, but the Falcons are a completely different animal. Consider yourself lucky if he breaks 60 yards.
? After being a non-factor in a week one win against Minnesota, Tampa Bay?s Michael Clayton faces a tough task in rebounding against the Bills. I don?t think he and Brian Griese are up to it. 60 receiving yards, tops.
BEST TE BETS:
? Baltimore?s Todd Heap may not have torn it up against Indianapolis on Sunday night, but as a solid bail-out option for whomever the Ravens start under center, he should pile on at least 100 yards and a score against a much weaker Tennessee Titan team.
? Despite a low-key 50-yard day in the Chiefs convincing win over the Jets, Tony Gonzalez should be in for a big performance this week as Kansas City heads west to Oakland. Anything less than one score and 80 yards would raise a few eyebrows.
? Based on pure athleticism, Jeremy Shockey is undoubtedly among the leagues top three tight ends. Shockey should be able to use this ability to rumble his way through the Saints? secondary for at least one short touchdown grab and 90 receiving yards.
WORST TE BETS:
? Fantasy owners around the country were undoubtedly doing double takes when they came across the Jets? Chris Baker?s week one stat line: 7 catches, 124 yards, and the team?s sole touchdown reception. While he is certainly worthy of a roster spot in deeper leagues, don?t expect a replicate outing against the Dolphins in week two.
? Tennessee?s Ben Troupe was a consensus preseason tight end sleeper in many fantasy circles. Troupe proved himself as a legitimate offensive weapon with an early touchdown in the Titan?s opener, but the second-year Gator doesn?t stand a chance against the unforgiving jaws of the Raven?s watertight linebacking corps.
? Alex Smith?s two-touchdown NFL debut may have been somewhat overlooked due to the performance of fellow rookie Carnell Williams, but don?t expect Smith to keep this up. With a mere 34 receiving yards on four catches, the Bucs have several other viable options for red zone production, and against the Bills, the scoring opportunities will be few and far between.
BEST DEFENSIVE BETS:
? The Eagles at home against San Francisco? Sounds good to me. Even though the Niners lit up the listless Rams a week ago, I don?t see Philadelphia making the same mistake.
? Baltimore matches up very nicely with a Tennessee team coming off a 27-point week one defeat. Things will get worse for the Titans before they get better as they have a decent shot at becoming the season?s first shutout victim.
? Dallas has owned the Redskins in the last few low-scoring grudge matches between these bitter NFC East rivals. Expect more of the same as the Cowboys will be able to generate turnovers and hold Washington to ten points or less.
WORST DEFENSIVE BETS:
? You don?t want to get into a shootout with the Indianapolis Colts in the RCA Dome, and Jacksonville faces that very prospect in week two. Peyton Manning will dominate the time of possession game in the first half, and Edgerrin will run wild through a tired defense in the second.
? Cleveland?s Romeo Crennel has his work cut out for him. After dropping his opener to the Bengals, they now travel to Lambeau Field to face a Packer team backed against the wall. Brett Favre will respond, however, and should be able to find more than enough holes in the Cleveland secondary to play a couple rounds of golf in the third an fourth quarters.
? Pittsburgh ran up the score against the Titans in week one, and should have no problem doing the same against the Texans in week two. Ben Rothlisberger appears to have found his stride, and after allowing J.P. Losman?s Bills to run up 20-plus points, it might be a good idea to steer clear of Houston?s defense for a few weeks.
BEST KICKER BETS:
? Mike Vanderjagt has it all going for him this week ? he?s indoors at home, on a high-powered offense, and kicking as well as ever. He should rack up some decent numbers ? but most of them will come from PAT?s.
? I think New England?s Adam Vinatieri is also in line for a big day on Sunday. The Carolina defense might have trouble keeping track of all of Tom Brady?s weapons around mid-field, but they should be able to clamp down as they are pushed towards the goal line. This bodes well for Vinatieri, who could have four or five attempts.
? St. Louis certainly doesn?t having any problems moving the ball on offense and Jeff Wilkins should be a big factor against the Cardinals on Sunday. Look for two or three field goals and a few extra points.
WORST KICKER BETS:
? Cleveland?s Phil Dawson probably isn?t looking forward to his team?s trip to Green Bay this weekend. He was able to notch two chip shots in week one, but the going gets tough when the Packers are at home.
? With Buffalo coming into town, the Bucs will likely struggle to move the chains on offense. Tampa Bay kicker, Matt Bryant, might get a couple opportunities, but they won?t be inside of 40 yards.
? Joe Nedney should have a relaxing day at work this Sunday. He might not leave the bench. A struggling San Francisco offense and a talented Eagles defense seem to indicate low fantasy production from Nedney so unless you?ve got some crazy vibe, he?s probably not worth the risk.
Good luck!
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