So you?ve registered for a fantasy football league and, assuming you didn?t cop out and default to ranking and auto-picking (as I?m convinced the Cincinnati Bengals did throughout the 1990?s), draft day is fast approaching. Here are a few quick pointers about preparation, strategy, and execution that will hopefully help lay the foundation for a highly successful 2005 fantasy campaign.
1. Be prepared.
At the very least, print out a player rankings sheet or two to help guide your selections. If you?re in a 12-team league with 16-player rosters, almost 200 players will be selected. I don?t care if you?re the Scott Pioli of fantasy football, that?s still just way too many guys to remember off the top of your head. It also helps if you have positional rankings (i.e. the top 25 quarterbacks, top 50 wide receivers, etc.) to help address specific needs in later rounds. With hundreds of different names flying around as the draft progresses, its goes without saying that a cheat sheet will help you make sense of it all.
2. Do your research.
I can?t tell you how many drafts I?ve been in where injured players ? and I?m talking season-ending injuries ? have been taken in the first three rounds. I don?t care how much of a ?f***ing soldier? he was in college, take the thickest sharpie you can find and cross Kellen Winslow Jr. out on your cheat sheet until you break through the paper. Granted, a friend usually pipes up through the muffled chuckling and awkward silence of ethical contemplation to alert the owner to this fact, but just do yourself a favor and avoid the embarrassment. Aside from injuries, research should also include any trades, free agency signings, resignations, and contract holdouts that have occurred over the offseason.
3. Beware of bye weeks and late season schedules.
It never hurts to know when your first four of five picks will be taking their bye week. While it shouldn?t make or break any of your draft day decisions, it is important to ensure that you don?t have your three studs all sitting out in Week 7 (especially if that?s the week you go toe-to-toe with that trash-talking friend). Heads up for Weeks 5 (Kansas City, Minnesota, New York Giants, and Oakland) and 8 (Atlanta, Indianapolis, New York Jets, and Seattle). Moreover, be sure to take a look at your league?s playoff schedule (if applicable) to see which weeks the semifinals and finals will be taking place. If you?re stuck between two players on draft day, and one faces the Patriots, Ravens, and Eagles in Weeks 15-17, do yourself a favor and let the guy with the next pick worry about that dicey stretch.
4. Pick running backs early.
As any seasoned fantasy player will tell you, one of the most consistent indicators of a fantasy team?s success is their quality and depth at the running back position. Simply put, running backs tend to be more durable and more reliable than quarterbacks; they get more touches than receivers and tight ends; and the statistical differences between the top ten tailbacks and the rest of the rushers in the league is much larger than any other position ? particularly when it comes to touchdowns. If you?re unable to nab a top ten back in the first round of your draft, you had better either have Peyton Manning or an ace up your sleeve, because a team built around Tony Gonzalez or Michael Vick will go about as about as far as Warren Sapp and Randy Moss in a three-legged race.
5. Nap on the Sleepers.
As much fun as it is to reap the benefits of a breakout year for a seventh-round sleeper that half of the other owners hadn?t even heard of, it is important to be very careful with these selections. Unless there is a strong chance that another owner will beat you to the punch, proven studs should be secured in the first four or five rounds before taking big risks on potential phenoms. Prior to the draft, try to identify five or six of your favorite sleepers and get a general idea of the round in which they should be selected. As the first few rounds of the draft roll through, get a sense of how much risks the other owners are taking, and, if you really want a guy and think he could be in danger of jumping off the board, go ahead and snag him a round or two ahead of schedule.
6. Avoid Negative Teammate Combos.
In the first few rounds of the draft, it is usually best to avoid selecting too many players from the same team. Think about it: While Brett Favre and Ahman Green are both excellent players in their own right, the Packers will only run a certain number of plays and score a certain number of touchdowns; as such, both of these players will only be able to take a certain percent out of the team?s scoring and statistical pie. Therefore, unless Green Bay is able to fit the Akron Zips into their 2005 regular season schedule, it is highly unlikely that both players will be able to produce big fantasy numbers in the same week. Moreover, if the Packers face a strong defense and are held under twenty points, it will be extremely difficult for your fantasy squad to overcome the underachievement of two of its biggest stars.
7. Collect Positive Teammate Combos.
By the same token, however, the strategy of selecting a quarterback and receiver or quarterback and tight end from the same NFL team is certainly one worth considering. In situations where a team has one clear go-to receiver or tight end (i.e, Antonio Gates in San Diego or Chad Johnson in Cincinnati), having both players can produce an enormous fantasy advantage. If 70 percent of a quarterback?s passes and touchdowns are going to one guy, it doesn?t take a quantum physics degree to figure out that completing the tandem will allow you to double up whenever the pair connects for six. I have subscribed to this theory in years past with McNabb/Owens, Favre/Walker, and Green/Gonzalez with great success, but if you become so consumed by this tactic and draft J.P. Losman, Eric Moulds, Jake Plummer and Ashley Lelie, don?t expect me to mail you the $50 entry fee you just flushed down the toilet.
8. Lay off the Kickers, Defenses, and Tight Ends.
Don?t be the guy that takes a tight end in the second round, a defense in the third, and a kicker in the sixth. Please. I don?t want you in my league, I don?t want to take your money, and I don?t want that bitter taste of tainted glory in my mouth when I wipe the floor with you, Tony Gonzalez, the Raven defense, and Adam Vinatieri. Seriously, stick with fantasy NASCAR. Tight ends should never be taken before the third round, defenses before the fifth, and kickers before the last three rounds. Unless you?re getting Gonzalez or Antonio Gates, build up your depth at running back and receiver and wait for someone else to break the ice in the other less important positions. As great as you might think it is to have landed Mike Vanderjagt, fellow kickers Jason Elam, Jeff Reed, and Shayne Graham all scored more points last season and will still be around in later rounds.
And there you have it. With any luck, this brief guide will give you a bit of a leg up in shaping your approach to this year?s fantasy drafts. It should be noted, however, that this list is by no means exhaustive, and entirely subjective. What works for some might not for others, and I have undoubtedly omitted many effective strategies that are certainly worth exploring. So in conclusion, prepare for success, have fun on draft day, and trust your gut instincts ? that is, unless they?re clamoring for Eli Manning in the third round. Then you should probably just punch yourself in the stomach.
Thank you for your time. Term papers are due next Wednesday. Class dismissed.
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