Ahhh, week one. The clean slates and new beginnings, the blinding optimism and habitual denial, the posturing, the predicting, and, of course, the ill-advised trash talking. The start of the season means that everyone ? from the Patriots to the Bears, from Len Pasquarelli to Aunt Mildred ? sits even in the standings with the same chances of advancing to the (fantasy) football postseason. Everyone has every reason to believe that this is their year, and for all intents and purposes, it very well might be. So in the interests of getting off on the right foot, let?s take a quick look at the first-week match-ups to see how they might play out for the players on your newly-drafted fantasy squad.
Oakland at New England
The defending Super Bowl champs won?t have to wait long to see whether or not they?ll be able to pick up where they left off at the end of last season. Even with the departure of Romeo Crennel and several Patriot defensive centerpieces though, you?d be wise to save bench spots for Oakland?s LaMont Jordan and Kerry Collins. Randy Moss, on the other hand, should still be good for one score and around 80 yards. When New England has the ball, look for a pair of TD passes from Tom Brady, and one on the ground from Corey Dillon. Deion Branch also gets a starting nod against a suspect Raider secondary.
Chicago at Washington
If you are unfortunate enough to have a Bear in your starting lineup, there aren?t going to be many weeks to rely on their fantasy production. With the possible exception of Muhsin Muhammad in deeper leagues, this ain?t one of those weeks. On the other side of the ball, Washington?s Clinton Portis should score at least once and near the century mark, while the Skins defensive unit is a great start at home against rookies Kyle Orton and Cedric Benson. Lastly, oft-maligned Patrick Ramsey should be good for at least two touchdowns and 200 yards through the air.
Cincinnati at Cleveland
The last time these two teams met, they combined for the second highest scoring game in league history, and while Cincinnati?s defensive mastermind Marvin Lewis will undoubtedly clamp down, it may take another year or two for ex-Patriot, Romeo Crennel, to get his defensive pieces in place. That being said, Carson Palmer, Rudi Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Chad Johnson are all solid starts for Cincinnati, while kicker Shayne Graham is the only Brown you should think about betting on.
Denver at Miami
I like whoever the starting running backs will be in this game ? I just wish I knew who they were going to be. Mike Anderson appears to be the current frontrunner in Denver, but the running back situation in Miami is about as clear as the inside of Ricky Williams? head. Ashley Lelie and Chris Chambers should both reach the end zone and make good starts as receivers, but counting on gunslingers Gus Frerotte and Jake Plummer for anything more than two scores and 150 yards probably wouldn?t be in your best interests.
Houston at Buffalo
Two of the leagues best young tailbacks square off in this scintillating AFC match-up, and as much as I like Domanick Davis, Buffalo?s Willis McGahee will steal this show. Look for a pair of touchdowns and 150 yards from McGahee, while Davis won?t reach the end zone or break 80 yards against an unyielding Buffalo front seven. Eric Moulds does the dirty work to roll up 100 receiving yards, but Lee Evans will go deep for six. For the Texans, bank on Andre Johnson for a late touchdown grab, but give David Carr another week or two before giving him a starting slot.
New Orleans at Carolina
If ever a team had the chance to stand up in the face of adversity, it?s these Saints, and though they may lack the firepower of the 2001 New York Yankees, one should never underestimate a team with an opportunity to restore hope to a fan base devastated by a tragedy of such magnitude. That being said, however, the Julius Peppers-led Carolina defensive is just too tenacious to expect more than one touchdown and 70 yards out of New Orleans centerpiece Deuce McCallister. On the Panthers side of the ball, Steve Smith and Keary Colbert should both be on the receiving end of Jake Delhomme touchdown strikes, but without any clear cut starter in the backfield, Deshaun Foster, Eric Shelton, Nick Goings and Stephen Davis are just too risky to play. Saints? quarterback, Aaron Brooks, might be good for one touchdown, but it will go to Donte Stallworth and not Joe Horn.
N.Y. Jets at Kansas City
There should be no shortage of fantasy scoring to go around in this track meet at Arrowhead. For Kansas City, Trent Green, Priest Holmes, and Tony Gonzalez are all safe bets for strong outings, while for the boys in green and white, Chad Pennington, Curtis Martin, Laverneus Coles, and rookie kicker Mike Nugent will definitely make it worth your while. Pennington and Green, in particular, should have at least two scores and 250 yards each, while Priest Holmes and Curtis Martin will both cross the goal line once and tally 100 yards.
Seattle at Jacksonville
Outside of Shaun Alexander owners, there won?t be too many folks riding this match-up to week one success. Matt Hasselbeck will hook up with Darrell Jackson for one touchdown and 60 yards while Fred Taylor will lead the Jacksonville offense with one trip to the end zone and 80 yards on the ground. If you?re looking for disappointment, starting the Jaguars? Byron Leftwich, Jimmy Smith, or Reggie Williams should do quite nicely.
Tampa Bay at Minnesota
Daunte Culpepper is out to prove that he doesn?t need Randy Moss in order to be considered among the NFL?s elite passers, and Tampa Bay appears to be the sacrificial lamb. Look for Culpepper to post two touchdown tosses (one to Nate Burleson and one to Travis Taylor), one rushing score, and 300 passing yards in his Moss-less debut. Steer clear of Michael Bennett and the rest of the Viking backfield, while for Tampa Bay, Brian Griese, Michael Clayton and Joey Galloway are fool?s gold against a vastly improved Viking defense. Rookie tailback Carnell ?Cadillac? Williams will also need a few weeks in the shop before being taken out for a spin.
Tennessee at Pittsburgh
Steve McNair is too old, Drew Bennett has yet to prove himself as a viable number one wideout, and Chris Brown has a long way to go being considered among the elite class of NFL backs. Throw in the fact that Pittsburgh has one of the best all-around squads in the league and you?ve got big fantasy numbers for Steelers owners. Slot Ben Rothlisberger in for two scores (Hines Ward and rookie tight end Heath Miller) and 200 yards. As for Jerome Bettis, early reports indicated that he would not be ready for the season opener, but the team has refused to provide updates on his status. While this might be some sort of Cowher ploy, backup running back Willie Parker could be a deep ? make that comatose ? sleeper in 20-team leagues based on a strong preseason showing and an unimpressive Titan defensive front.
Arizona at N.Y. Giants
Kurt Warner might be hyped up to play against his former team, but I only see one touchdown pass to Larry Fitzgerald, and around 150 passing yards in a relatively low-scoring game. Likewise, if he plays, Eli Manning will tally 140 yards, and should find Jeremy Shockey for six, but won?t produce the type of numbers you need from a starting fantasy QB. Rookie Cardinal halfback J.J. Arrington will be an impact player in the Arizona backfield, but we?ll have to wait another month or two to see that come to fruition.
Dallas at San Diego
If you had one of the top two or three picks and managed to snag LaDanian Tomlinson, you won?t have to wait long to reap your rewards. LT should break out for 200 total yards and is a lock for two scores against a young Dallas defensive front line. Drew Brees and Antonio Gates will take a week or two to find their rhythm, but I think Reche Caldwell and Keenan McCardell could both manage 80 yards and one touchdown a piece. For Dallas, Drew Bledsoe, Terry Glenn, and Keyshawn Johnson are well past their respective primes, and the only safe play is workhorse, Julius Jones, who should be able to grind out 100 yards and one score.
Green Bay at Detroit
It might look like a frigid NFC North match-up at first glance, but this display of offensive firepower will play out more like a heated gunfight in the Wild Wild West. Amidst the touchdown barrage, the absolute must-starts are Brett Favre, Ahman Green, and Kevin Jones. Joey Harrington, Roy Williams, Javon Walker, Donald Driver, Bubba Franks and even kickers Ryan Longwell and Jason Hanson are also worthy of strong consideration.
St. Louis at San Francisco
Salivate away, St. Louis Ram owners. Marc Bulger should have no problem finding Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce in the wide open San Francisco secondary. Steven Jackson should also be good for 150 yards and at least one score as the Rams milk the clock in the third and fourth quarters. Don?t expect much out of Kevin Barlow though, as the Niners will likely fall behind early and be forced to abandon the run. Moreover, the St. Louis defense, in what might best be described as taking candy from a baby, is easily the best defensive play of the week.
Indianapolis at Baltimore
The Baltimore defense might be one of the best in recent memory, but Peyton Manning is still Peyton Manning. Chalk him up for three scores (Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and Dallas Clark), and about 250 yards. Edgerrin James will also come through with one rushing touchdown and 60 yards. Baltimore will struggle to keep up with the Colts unstoppable passing game, but Jamal Lewis will come up big, taking it to the house twice, and rolling up 120 yards along the way.
Philadelphia at Atlanta
In a rematch of last year?s NFC championship, don?t expect either of these defenses to allow more than 20 points. My money is on Donovan McNabb for two touchdown passes (Terrell Owens and L.J. Smith), and Michael Vick for one six-point connection with Alge Crumpler and a rushing score to boot. Don?t expect more than 60 rushing yards out of Brian Westbrook or Warrick Dunn, but Jay Feely and David Akers are both looking forward to big days in the kicker-friendly confines of Atlanta?s Georgia Dome.
Let the games begin.
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