2011 Record: Point Differential: +87 Turnover Margin: +11 Sack Differential: +5 Offense: 2011 Ranks Rushing: 29th Passing: 4th 3rd Down: 18th Scoring: 4th QB: Matt Stafford finally stayed healthy and played a full season, and in the process reminded everyone of why he was the first overall pick in the 2009 NFL draft. Other than an uneven patch in the middle of the season, Stafford was absolutely on fire; other than a disastrous outing in Chicago in Week 10 he was often unstoppable. Stafford chalked up 10 games with a QB rating over 100 while throwing for 41 touchdowns, 5038 yards, and completing 63.5% of his passes. He led four comeback wins on the final drives of the game and brought a confidence and competence to the position that Lions fans have not seen since Bobby Layne in the 1950s. Those are huge positives that portend very well for the future, but there are some lingering issues with Stafford. He still must prove he can stay healthy even though he took many big hits (36 sacks) and he did play three games with a splint on his broken index finger on his throwing hand. That coincided with his rough patch, proving even Stafford at 85% is not good enough to win in this league. He is somewhat spoiled by getting to throw to Calvin Johnson, who pulls in jump balls like few receivers ever have before. There are periodic bouts of inaccuracy and an almost flippant insouciance when he leads three straight three-and-outs. The Lions are hoping he matures a little more and starts games with the same greatness that he often finishes them with, a real problem as the team repeatedly fell behind early as the offense sputtered. Mobility is not his strong suit, though he can scramble for a few yards periodically and will slide in the pocket fairly well. Stafford takes too many square-on thumpings from defenders on too many of his sacks and needs to learn to protect himself better. Shaun Hill re-signed with the team as the backup, an important cog of continuity and good insurance should Stafford get hurt once again. Hill was very solid in relief in 2010 before going down himself, and the team is comfortable and confident in his ability to run the offense. He brings added mobility, though his arm strength and accuracy are both inferior to Stafford. Drew Stanton moved onto greener pastures after laboring for years as the 3rd stringer, and the Lions fully intend to use his roster spot at another position rather than carry three QBs on the active roster. UDFA Kellen Moore from Boise State is a good bet to stick on the practice squad, though his weak arm and limited athleticism would require the Lions to sign a street free agent veteran should they need someone actually capable of playing in an NFL game. RB: There is a lot of potential talent here, but injuries are a major mitigating factor across the board. Thanks to all those injuries, no Lion carried the ball more than 84 times in 2011. When I talked to Jim Schwartz during Senior Bowl week, he was effusive in praising Mikel Leshoure. The physical inside-out runner from Illinois missed his entire rookie season with a torn Achilles, but Schwartz clearly expects great things from Leshoure. This was before two offseason arrests for marijuana, however, and in light of the spate of criminal behavior, Leshoure is under intense pressure and scrutiny. He is already suspended for the first two games and will not survive any further malfeasance. Jahvid Best has proven to be a dynamic threat with great acceleration and outside vision, but major concussion issues cloud his future. The coaches indicated to me around draft time that they consider Best as the third down back and don’t want to risk another concussion by using him too much. I’m not even that confident in Best, who I would strongly advise to retire. WR/TE: Teams don’t throw for over 5000 yards without a plethora of receiving weaponry, and the Lions are no exception. It certainly helps to have the most complete, most dynamic receiver in the league in Calvin Johnson. Megatron is a matchup nightmare for defenses with his length, strength, and ever-improving route precision. The last item there is a critical improvement, as Johnson previously relied too heavily on just being bigger/stronger/faster than every defensive back. Last year he learned to set up his moves and get a cleaner release off the line. That improvement produced career highs in catches (96), yards (1681), touchdowns (16), and yards per catch (17.5), one of the greatest receiving seasons in NFL history. And he could very well top that in 2012. Yet it takes more than just one tremendous receiver for a quarterback to throw for over 5,000 yards, and the Lions have strong complementary receivers. Titus Young came on strong late in his rookie year, gaining Stafford’s trust and improving his recognition of coverages. He’s a strong vertical threat but did most of his damage in the 12-16 yard range, often catching the ball just as the defender was switching out of his backpedal. Sixteen of his final 20 receptions produced first downs, including 11 on 3rd downs. Look for Young to threaten 1,000 yards in his second season and also top his 6 TDs and 12.6 yards per catch of his rookie year. Nate Burleson fills the role of savvy veteran in the slot. His production fluctuates wildly, often disappearing for long stretches and taking some poor (and questionable) penalties, but Burleson can also carve up defenses underneath and move the chains in bunches. He is dangerous enough working the slot inside Johnson that safeties cannot just flock to Megatron. This is probably his last season in Detroit, however, as the Lions drafted his replacement in Ryan Broyles in the second round. Broyles has more catches than any player in NCAA history during his career in Oklahoma, and the Sooner offense evaporated when he went down with a torn ACL late in the year. He’s not big and neither exceptionally fast nor quick, but Broyles innately gets open quickly and catches everything near him with very strong hands and wrists. Because of the knee issue, he fell in the draft and could miss the first part of the season. Depth beyond that is pretty sketchy, but the Lions seldom use more than three wideouts. That means the reserves are more about special teams and injury replacement than actual contributors to the offense. Stefan Logan is primarily a return man, and early in camp he was working with the running backs. Free agent Jarrett Dillard--who for a time held the NCAA reception record that Broyles broke--is a possession receiver that the WR-desperate Jaguars set free. Maurice Stovall caught exactly one pass in his first season in Detroit, while Dominique Curry is on the roster exclusively for special teams potential. The Lions use their tight ends quite a bit, often utilizing two tight end sets including some with an empty backfield where the tight ends serve as the de facto running game. Big Brandon Pettigrew thrived in that role. Pettigrew hauled in 83 passes, many of which were plucking rockets from the air in traffic in the 5-10 yard range. He creates space with good physicality and the first step of a small forward attacking the basket. His blocking is solid. Tony Scheffler is the flex tight end, almost always lined up in the slot or moving across the formation. He has good vertical speed and is also a Stafford favorite in the red zone. Scheffler is a weak blocker and that limits his role. Will Heller is the sledgehammer tight end, essentially an extra offensive tackle, and he’s quite good in that role. The Lions use him quite a bit on third and short. OL: The starting five all return for the third season in a row, for better and worse. At their best the starting unit of (left to right) Jeff Backus, Rob Sims, Dominic Raiola, Stephen Peterman, and Gosder Cherilus is tenaciously ordinary. That was good enough to sneak into the playoffs, but if the Lions want to improve, as well as keep Stafford’s arm from falling off, the line must step it up. Backus is nothing if not durable, having started every game for the last decade. He is a plus run blocker and handles one-dimensional edge rushers fairly well, but ends with great quickness and the ability to work inside and out consistently flummox Backus. He signed a team-friendly contract to return despite his advancing age and decided mediocrity, but he is a known entity and there is comfort in that. The team drafted Riley Reiff from Iowa in the first round with the expectation that he eventually replaces Backus, but it probably won’t happen until at least 2013. Reiff is eerily similar in build and style to Backus, and he will compete with Cherilus during preseason for the starting right tackle job. Cherilus is in a contract year and is quite clearly only a right tackle, though he played his best football in the latter half of 2012. The Lions are hopeful he rises up and continues that strong play, enabling Reiff to gradually get his feet wet and then take over for Backus with Cherilus being an anchor on the right side. This is the biggest battle in camp. Give Cherilus the slight edge on his experience and strong run blocking, but Reiff will be starting along the line sooner than later. The G-C-G package is more maligned than their play deserves. Raiola is the ultimate savvy veteran, undersized but incredibly smart and plucky. Like his draft classmate Backus, Raiola has proven incredibly durable, having missed just four games since 2002. He holds, chops, and clips with the best of ‘em, and powerful nose tackles frequently overwhelm Raiola. But he is good enough to continue as the unchallenged starter and he’s arguably the most reliable snapper of the football in the league. Sims is a plodding behemoth with just enough range to make him moderately effective as a pass protector, but he lacks the quick burst and powerful punch off the snap to generate much run blocking. Peterman plays much better against 3-man fronts than 4-man lines, more able to use good angles and leverage. He tends to block with blinders on, however. When Cherilus picked up his play towards the end of the season, Peterman also played better. Sims and Peterman together do a pretty solid job of preventing up-the-gut pressure on Stafford, which is their primary function in this offense. Corey Hilliard is the top reserve, and he played both guard and tackle at times. The Lions are comfortable keeping him in that role, though with the Reiff/Cherilus loser presumably being the swing tackle. Jason Fox was once positioned for the #3 tackle role, if not a starting job, but he has never been able to get or remain healthy. He is on his last chance. Johnny Culbreath carries the misfortune of being the lowest on the totem pole of the multiple Lions offseason criminals. Defense: 2011 Ranks Rushing: 23rd Passing: 22nd 3rd Down: 7th Scoring: 23rd DL: Much was made of the alleged sophomore slump for Ndamukong Suh, but I watched every snap of every game (twice!) and the drop off was largely a misperception. The numbers were certainly not as impressive (from 10 sacks to 4, 66 tackles to 36) but some of that was a function of a deeper rotation and increased focus on Suh from the offensive line. He needs to do a better job of keeping his composure and not letting a bad play fester; too often when he was adequately blocked he took himself out of the next couple of plays mentally or took a dumb penalty. Still, he often crashed into the backfield and was the focal point of the offensive blocking and that will not change in 2012. Expect a rebound to 8 sacks and 50 tackles, at minimum, while playing a full 16 games without more than two personal foul penalties. The Lions have exceptional depth along the defensive front. Corey Williams is the other starting tackle and he is an above-average all around performer. His numbers were down in 2011 (2 sacks, 21 tackles) but Williams is a pocket collapsing force inside. He still registered 10 QB hurries and also notched 3 tackles for loss on draw plays. Sammie Hill would start for most teams, but here he spells the starters and adds size and pretty quick beef inside. He is the best anchor against the run inside, in part because he is the only tackle that doesn’t try to rush the passer on every snap. If there is one resounding critique of the Lions front, it’s the often undisciplined and impatient approach they often take. Taking that weakness to heart both on and off the field is Nick Fairley, the star-crossed 1st round pick of a year ago. Fairley missed a lot of time as a rookie with a broken foot that he rehabbed with questionable vigor, then failed to do much once he returned. At his best, Fairley is a hyper-aggressive wrecking ball, a lightning-quick gap shooter with strong closing burst to the QB. But he frequently overruns the play or gets tied up in an individual battle, clearly lacking positional discipline. And then there’s the off-field issues…Fairley fell from a potential top 5 draft spot because many teams (justifiably) worried about his immaturity. Two embarrassing arrests this offseason, including a disturbingly cheery mug shot from a DUI, have Fairley in the crosshairs of many Lions fans. He must produce on the field and keep quiet off the field or else he is in real anger of busting out of the league quickly. This Lions fan is not holding his breath expecting anything but more disappointment from Fairley. Cliff Avril put up 11 sacks and led the league in forced fumbles with six, while also chipping in a pick-six and 27 QB hurries. Avril has always been solid against the run, but his increased proficiency as an impact rusher made a huge difference for the overall defense. Conveniently, Avril accomplished that in a contract year. The Lions hit him with the franchise tag and were unable to reach agreement on a long-term deal, so once again Avril is playing for his next contract. He is not the kind of person to let that impact his play, but it will be interesting to see if the Lions use him less and try to bring along Willie Young more. Young was tremendous in limited opportunities a year ago, getting 3.5 sacks and 13.5 hurries in limited reps. He really improved his first step and has enough muscle to bull inside as a countermove. Lawrence Jackson, also hitting a contract year, was a solid contributor with 4.5 sacks and decent run defense. He fits the swing role quite well and could see more action at the expense of the aging Kyle VandenBosch. A Jim Schwartz favorite, KVB chipped in eight sacks and still plays with menace but doesn’t have the initial burst or bull strength of his prime. He is still the emotional leader of the defense and the tone setter in the locker room and on the practice field, but his days as a serious pass rushing threat are probably over. Veteran Andre Fluellen is a solid rotational guy that can play anywhere along the line and one of the few Matt Millen picks still around. LB: Detroit finally got competent LB play from all three starters, something that has been missing since the Wayne Fontes glory days. Stephen Tulloch proved worth every penny of his free agent contract, cleaning up over 100 tackles while providing decent coverage in the middle of the zone. He even showed some propensity to get home on the rare LB blitz in Gunther Cunningham’s defense. Deandre Levy also notched over 100 tackles, but his play lacked the oomph and impetus of Tulloch. The Lions would like Levy to make more plays that force turnovers or get off the field on 3rd down, something he has not consistently shown in his three seasons. Speedy Justin Durant was a marked improvement as the weakside backer. Durant is an average starter on his best day, which tells you how consistently lousy the linebacking play has been in Detroit. Like Levy, he doesn’t offer much in the way of impact plays and is vulnerable in coverage, too straight-linish. Bobby Carpenter is gone as the nickel/#4 LB, and in his place will be the winner of a camp battle Doug Hogue, Ashlee Palmer, and 5th round pick Tahir Whitehead. Hogue was the team’s 5th round draft choice a year ago and played little as a rookie. He has visibly grown, adding an inch and a good 10 pounds of what appears to be functional bulk without losing any of his trademark speed. If he can harness his new body and demonstrate he knows the ins and outs of the defense, he could be an emerging gem. Palmer is primarily a special teams player and reserve middle backer, and is limited by his lack of size and lateral range. Whitehead is about the same size as Palmer (6’1” in cleats, 230ish) but has good athleticism. He is more of a blitzer, and he picked up the defense quickly in OTAs. Expect him to spend most of 2012 on the practice squad unless he really stands out. 4th round pick Ronnell Lewis will be more of a factor as a pass rushing specialist defensive end, though he can play standing up when the team goes to an odd-man front. Secondary: Two starters are definitely set in left corner Chris Houston and free safety Louis Delmas. The rest of the depth chart is subject to camp battles with a host of candidates. Houston played very well in his first season in Detroit. He is aggressive in attacking the ball in the air, using good burst and excellent timing to compensate for his oft-generous cushions. Houston returned two of his five INTs for touchdowns and got his hands on 16 other passes. He’s not a shutdown, physical corner but he fits the press-and-bail scheme well and adds value in run support. Eric Wright was up and down at the other spot, and the Lions let him leave via free agency. Aaron Berry figured to have the inside track in taking over the other outside corner role, but a late June DUI severely rained on his parade. Berry played quite well at times last year when healthy, though he missed 5 games and parts of others with various maladies. Teams picked on him but he generally held his own. Third round pick Dwight Bill Bentley is ideally built to handle the slot nickel role, and all indications are he will be the starter there. He is quick, feisty, and doesn’t lack confidence in himself despite being smallish and lacking strength. Covering shifty slot receivers was an issue for the Lions last year and Bentley can only help. Free agent Jacob Lacey impressed in early OTAs and is looking to carve out a spot for himself beyond being a special teams ace. He is the most physical of the combatants but often struggled to stay on the hip of the receiver and maintain his zone integrity during his Colts tenure. Alphonso Smith is a riverboat gambler, an undersized ballhawk who guesses too much but also winds up with his hands on the ball a lot. His dragging style of tackling doesn’t help his cause. Two rookies are also in the corner mix. Chris Greenwood has great size, speed, and athleticism that greatly intrigues the coaching staff. He proved in OTAs he can make the athletic interception and will handle his business in run support, but his coverage skills and instincts are raw. Expect him to make more of an impact on special teams while he learns the ropes in coverage. Jonte Green has exceptional speed but looked even greener in coverage than Greenwood. Even though the team traded up to get him in the 5th round, Green is not assured a roster spot. Delmas has been excellent at times at safety, but injuries have taken their toll. He is a vocal leader with boundless energy and toughness. Delmas is opportunistic and flies to the football, the kind of player that just makes things happen. But he is often undisciplined in coverage and will take ponderous angles on occasion, leaving the Lions back end very vulnerable to big plays over the top. A knee injury really limited his range last year and he probably should not have come back late in the season. This is a contract year for Delmas, and if he can recapture his rookie magic of 2009 (94 tackles, 2 TDs & a safety) he will earn a huge payday. But he must stay healthy and be more positionally responsible. It would help him if Amari Spievey could raise his game a little. Spievey has been okay, nothing special, and is coming off a severe concussion in the playoff loss to New Orleans. Veterans Erik Coleman and Sean Jones provide backup, and Jones could jump Spievey on the depth chart as the strong safety. He is well travelled but comes off a solid season amidst complete chaos in Tampa, and his size and aggressive attitude could click with the coaching staff. John Wendling and Ricardo Silva are more on the roster for special teams than their skills at safety, though Wendling can handle his business in small doses. Special Teams: Venerable Jason Hanson returns for what seems like his 30th year in Detroit. Despite being in his 40s, Hanson still has one of the strongest legs in the game and is one of the best at kicking 50+ field goals. He has suffered a couple of leg injuries in recent seasons, and at some point the range is going to wane. After parting with longtime punter Nick Harris, the Lions shuffled through three punters in 2011. Ben Graham was the best of the trio, particularly at pinning the ball deep. He will battle with Ryan Donahue for the gig. Stefan Logan is eminently replaceable as the return specialist, as he brought just three of his last 70 kickoff returns across midfield. To that end, the Lions brought in UDFA Dontrell Johnson and will also audition Jonte Green and perhaps Titus Young for return duties. Logan will have the inside track but he must prove he is the best. Coaching: Jim Schwartz has been the overseer of a remarkable turnaround, taking the team from winless to the playoffs in three seasons. That earned Schwartz a contract extension, but that doesn’t mean great security. A decided lack of discipline is a great scar upon the franchise, and Schwartz’s own immaturity with the postgame handshake fiasco has set a tone that is too permissive and must change immediately. How well the two most recent draft classes perform both on and off the field will go a long way in determining if Schwartz is the right coach to take this team to the next level, which is winning a playoff game and legitimately challenging for the Super Bowl in a top-heavy NFC. Both coordinators, Scott Linehan on offense and Gunther Cunningham on defense, return to provide strong continuity. Defensive line coach Kris Kocurek is a rising star, and wideouts coach Shawn Jefferson is in line for a higher position as well. Breakout player: Mikel Leshoure. It’s a risky venture, but if he is able to start from scratch and put all the adversity of injuries and arrests behind him, Leshoure could have a huge impact on the offense. His hard-charging, inside-out running style is a perfect complement to the high-flying passing attack. The potential is there for Leshoure to get 4.5 yards per carry and score 6-8 touchdowns on 15-18 attempts per game in what will be his de facto rookie season. Honorable mention to Willie Young, who I strongly believe could notch 8+ sacks. Forecast: It’s real hard to not like what the Lions have done under GM Martin Mayhew and Jim Schwartz, and the potential is certainly here to build off last year’s playoff berth. The offense can score with anyone, and the defense has the talent, particularly in the front seven, to improve across the board. Yet I do not trust the discipline either on or off the field, and I’m not sold that Schwartz is the man who can take this team to the next step. The Lions got incredibly lucky a few times last year (Dallas, Oakland, Minnesota), miracles that are extremely unlikely to be repeated. This team is going to have to earn it this year. I expect Stafford to fall back a little but the defense and running games to step up enough to keep Detroit in the thick of the crowded NFC playoff race. The final two games, home dates with Atlanta and Chicago, are must-wins that will determine the difference between 10-6 and the playoffs or an 8-8 disappointment. I’ll split the difference and forecast a 9-7 finish for Detroit. Twitter @JeffRisdon or [email protected]