Another NFL season lurks right around the corner, and I assume that you’re already knee deep in preparing for your upcoming fantasy football draft(s). If not, have no fear, as this draft guide can help accelerate your preparation.  First, in as few words as possible, here’s a quick-hits analysis of the different fantasy football positions this year:  QB – key; RB – uncertainty; WR – deep; TE – also deep; DEF – normal; K – j/k.

Now to expand on the quick-hits analysis, this year appears to be the year of the quarterback in fantasy football. If you can get your hands on one of the elite QBs, you should pounce on the opportunity. The difference between the top QB, Aaron Rodgers, and a mid-level QB, let’s say Matt Ryan, is staggering. With passing levels at an all time high in the NFL, an elite QB can carry your team in fantasy football.

In looking at running backs this season, you have a few safe, productive players, and the rest facing time shares and/or injury concerns. Unless you can grab one of the elite RBs, it may be worthwhile to draft for quantity and see if you hit a few home runs. 

We have an especially deep WR position, with great value deep into the draft. The TE position also looks to be as deep as ever, and you can get a solid TE later in the draft.  

Returning to the draft guide, as per previous years, the rankings have been grouped by position into tiers. Always, always draft with the tier system as your base. I have also included a comprehensive top 150 ranking so you can see where QBs, RBs, WRs, etc. fit amongst each other.

For those new to the tier system, each player in the same tier is expected to be interchangeable for the most part. For example, I expect Tom Brady and Drew Brees to provide similar value this season. Whichever player is listed first within the tier is the player to whom I’d give the slight edge, but again I wouldn’t expect the difference to be much. 

The tier system becomes especially valuable as you get deeper into the draft.  When you’re trying to decide whether or not to go with a WR, RB or TE with your fourth round pick, take a look at the players remaining at the time at the highest remaining tier level for each position. Continuing the example, if several players remain in the WR and TE tiers, but only one or two RBs from the top remaining tier are still there, then consider taking the RB, as for your next draft pick, you’ll most likely be faced with selecting an RB from a lower tier. 

Now keep in mind that you do need to have a grasp on where the players fit overall into the rankings, and as mentioned, I have provided you with a top 150 overall ranking list for this purpose.  A QB in the third tier does not have equal value to a TE in the third tier, etc.  So in making your draft selections, you should use the tier system as your base, and then cross-check the players against the overall rankings to make sure that the players you are comparing are in the vicinity of the draft slot you’re using. 

One final important note to keep in mind is that these rankings are based on standard leagues (no points-per-reception, no TD only scoring system, etc.).  If your league rules stray away from the norm, that’s fine, but just factor that into your rankings.  Alright, with all of that, let’s take a look at the rankings (bye weeks for each player are in parentheses, and a few players whom I expect to outperform their draft slots are in bold). 

Quarterback Tiers

Tier 1:    Aaron Rodgers (10)

Tier 2:    Tom Brady (9), Drew Brees (6)

Tier 3:    Matthew Stafford (5), Cam Newton (6)

Tier 4:    Phillip Rivers (7), Eli Manning (7), Tony Romo (5), Michael Vick (7), Peyton Manning (11), Matt Ryan (7)

Tier 5:    Ben Roethlisberger (4), Jay Cutler (6), Matt Schaub (8), Robert Griffin III (10)

Tier 6:    Josh Freeman (5), Joe Flacco (8), Sam Bradford (9), Alex Smith (9), Andy Dalton (8), Carson Palmer (5), Andrew Luck (4), Jake Locker (11), Russell Wilson (11)

Tier 7:    Tim Tebow (9), Matt Cassel (7), Ryan Fitzpatrick (8), Christian Ponder (11), Blaine Gabbert (6), Kevin Kolb (10)

Tier 8:    Brandon Weeden (10), Mark Sanchez (9), Matt Flynn (11), Ryan Tannehill (7)

Analysis:

Get your quarterback early if you can! If you can land a QB from one of the top three tiers, that would be ideal. Don’t sleep on Philip Rivers – he had one bad season, and now he’s dropped on fantasy boards much farther than he should. The QBs in tier four have very high upside, but come with considerable health risk beyond Eli Manning. Tucked away at the end of tier five is RGIII, and I do feel that he will have an impact, but I do not see him putting up Cam Newton numbers – at least not this season. The Redskins face a tough schedule, and their O-line has issues. Still, he’s listed here in front of some solid QBs.

Running Back Tiers

Tier 1:    Arian Foster (8), Ray Rice (8), Lesean McCoy (7), Chris Johnson (11)

Tier 2:    Maurice Jones Drew (6), Darren McFadden (5)

Tier 3:    Marshawn Lynch (11), Matt Forte (6), Jamaal Charles (7), Ryan Matthews (7), Trent Richardson (10), Adrian Peterson (11), Steven Jackson (9), Fred Jackson (8), Michael Turner

Tier 4:    DeMarco Murray (5), Darren Sproles (6), Frank Gore (9), Ahmad Bradshaw (11)

Tier 5:    Doug Martin (5), Ben Tate (8), Willis McGahee (7), Reggie Bush (7), Jonathan Stewart (6)

Tier 6:    BenJarvis Green-Ellis (8), Shonn Greene (9), Peyton Hillis (7), CJ Spiller (8), Roy Helu (10), Evan Royster (10), Rashad Mendenhall (4), Isaac Redman (4), Stevan Ridley (9), Deangelo Williams (6), Cedric Benson (10)

Tier 7:    Toby Gerhart (11), Jahvid Best (5), Beanie Wells (10), Ryan Williams (10), Mikel Leshoure (5), Michael Bush (6), Mark Ingram (6), Felix Jones (5), Donald Brown (4), Shane Vereen (9)

Tier 8:    Pierre Thomas (6), David Wilson (11), LaGarrette Blount (5), Mike Goodson (5), Kevin Smith (5), Bernard Scott (8), Ronnie Hillman (7), James Starks (10)

Analysis:

The top four RBs are all worthy of top overall pick consideration, along with Aaron Rodgers.  I think Chris Johnson comes back with a vengeance this season. After tier one, I see a very uncertain group of RBs. From tier two, MJD’s holdout and more importantly, lack of help around him, and Matthews and Run DMC’s injury history provide cause for concern.  However, in Run DMC’s case, if healthy, he’s talented enough to lead all RBs in total points. Tier three RBs are no sure bets either, although I’m a believer that Richardson, not facing an RB-by-committee, will put up good numbers. I’m not as high on DeMarco Murray and Michael Turner as others may be, and their placement in tier four shows this. Overall, this year the RB position is very uncertain after the top options, and as such, if you do not land the tier one guys, I strongly recommend taking flyers on a few talented, higher risk/reward guys, and also keeping a close eye on the waiver wire as the season goes on. 

Wide Receivers Tiers

Tier 1:    Calvin Johnson (5)

Tier 2:    Larry Fitzgerald (10), AJ Green (8), Greg Jennings (10)

Tier 3:    Mike Wallace (4), Julio Jones (7), Roddy White (7), Wes Welker (9), Jeremy Maclin (6), Brandon Marshall (7), Andre Johnson (8)

Tier 4:    Jordy Nelson (10), Hakeem Nicks (11), Steve Smith (6), Dez Bryant (5), Miles Austin (5), Marques Colston (6), Victor Cruz (11),

Tier 5:    Percy Harvin (11), Brandon Lloyd (9), Dwayne Bowe (7), Vincent Jackson (5), Eric Decker (7), Demaryius Thomas (7), Antonio Brown (4), Steve Johnson (8), Pierre Garcon (10), Denarius Moore (5)

Tier 6:    Robert Meachem (7), Torrey Smith (8), DeSean Jackson (7), Kenny Britt (11), Titus Young (5), Sidney Rice (11), Santonio Holmes (9), Anquan Boldin (8), Reggie Wayne (4)

Analysis:

I’m all in on AJ Green this season. I expect a monster season and a top three finish among WRs.  Also, I'm a big fan of Julio Jones, and believe that he’ll outperform Roddy White, although they’ll be very close. Love those season two WRs. Jeremy Maclin is another WR who will return excellent value for those who draft him. A few other thoughts: Eric Decker over Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant over Miles Austin, and I expect Victor Cruz to put up solid numbers, but not the same level he posted last season. Overall, WR is a very deep position, and you will be able to find value deep into the draft.

Tight End Tiers

Tier 1:    Rob Gronkowski (9), Jimmy Graham (6)

Tier 2:    Antonio Gates (7), Vernon Davis (9)

Tier 3:    Fred Davis (10), Jason Witten (5), Aaron Hernandez (9), Jermichael Finley (10), Jermaine Gresham (8), Brandon Pettigrew (5), Tony Gonzalez (7)

Tier 4:     Jared Cook (11), Jacob Tamme (7)

Tier 5:    Coby Fleener (4), Brent Celek (7), Owen Daniels (8), Martellus Bennett (11), Kellen Winslow (11)

Tier 6:    Greg Olsen (6), Marcedes Lewis (6), Tony Moeaki (7), Kyle Rudolph (11), Heath Miller (4), Dallas Clark (5)

Analysis:

I’ve got Gronkowski and Graham listed as the tier one TEs, but you most likely won’t find them on my teams based on early draft returns, as they’re being selected too high for my taste. I expect both to have great years, but I don’t see repeats of last season. Gronk will have only 12 touchdowns this year. Like WR, the TE position is very deep this year. I even like the tier four guys, so you can wait to get value in the later rounds.  We’re looking at a terrific year for TEs. 

Kicker Tiers

Are you serious?!  No rankings of kickers, ever.  Select your kickers LAST.

Analysis:

Here are the reasons why you do NOT select kickers anywhere but with the last picks of your draft:

1. The variance between the top kickers and the kickers in the middle of the pack each season is not much (average of only 2 points a week). 
2. If a kicker has an epic season, it’ll usually be random as to the identity of the kicker (translation: it could be anyone, so don’t try to guess who it is at the draft).

So when it comes to selecting your kickers, use your final picks, and just make sure that whoever you select does in fact start the season as the team’s field goal kicker, rather than just a kickoff specialist.

Defense/Special Teams Tiers

Tier 1:    San Francisco (9)

Tier 2:    Pittsburgh (4), Seattle (11), Baltimore (8), Chicago (6)

Tier 3:    Houston (8), Philadelphia (7), New York Jets (9), Buffalo (8)

Tier 4:     Detroit (5), Kansas City (7), Dallas (5), Atlanta (7), Green Bay (10), Arizona (10), New York Giants (11)

Tier 5:    Cincinnati (8), St. Louis (9), Miami (7), New England (9), Tennessee (11), Washington (10), Cleveland (10), Denver (7)

Analysis:

Probably more than any other position, the importance of defense/special teams depends on your league’s point scoring system.  In some leagues, defense/special teams make a big impact, and in other leagues, they make minimal impact.  Make sure to know how much emphasis your league places on defensive/ST scoring prior to making your selection.  San Francisco sits at the top of the tier structure, and otherwise the rankings are self-explanatory. 

Conclusion/Final Advice:

You’ve got all the resources you need here to have another championship caliber fantasy football season.  Remember not to force any picks – let the draft board come to you.  Use the tier system provided here.  Even if your rankings differ from those above, that’s fine, but abide by your tier system.  And while it would be ideal to end up with one of the top QBs, don’t force it if the draft doesn’t play out that way.  Stay true to your rankings, and know your scoring system well.  This is key!!!  If your league rewards points for each reception, or if your league’s scoring system heavily favors touchdown rather than yardage, draft with that in mind.  One more piece of advice – on draft day, keep track of what positions each team has drafted.  For example, knowing how many teams have already selected a TE can be very helpful – you may be able to hold off on picking one until later if everyone else has already picked one.  The last piece of advice, and the most important - make sure to have fun!

Please feel free to email me with any thoughts or questions.  I can be reached at [email protected]. 

Overall Top 150

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Arian Foster
3. Ray Rice
4. LeSean McCoy
5. Chris Johnson
6. Tom Brady
7. Calvin Johnson
8. Drew Brees
9. Larry Fitzgerald
10. Matthew Stafford
11. Maurice Jones-Drew
12. Cam Newton
13. Darren McFadden
14. Rob Gronkowski
15. AJ Green
16. Jimmy Graham
17. Greg Jennings
18. Marshawn Lynch
19. Matt Forte
20. Mike Wallace
21. Julio Jones
22. Roddy White
23. Phillip Rivers
24. Jamaal Charles
25. Ryan Matthews
26. Wes Welker
27. Jeremy Maclin
28. Brandon Marshall
29. Andre Johnson
30. Trent Richardson
31. Adrian Peterson
32. Jordy Nelson
33. Hakeem Nicks
34. Eli Manning
35. Steven Jackson
36. Fred Jackson
37. Steve Smith (CAR)
38. Michael Turner
39. Dez Bryant
40. Tony Romo
41. Michael Vick
42. Miles Austin
43. Demarco Murray
44. Antonio Gates
45. Peyton Manning
46. Darren Sproles
47. Marques Colston
48. Matt Ryan
49. Vernon Davis
50. Victor Cruz
51. Frank Gore
52. Ahmad Bradshaw
53. Percy Harvin
54. Brandon Lloyd
55. Doug Martin
56. Ben Tate
57. Dwayne Bowe
58. Ben Roethlisberger
59. Jay Cutler
60. Vincent Jackson
61. Eric Decker
62. Fred Davis
63. Jason Witten
64. Willis McGahee
65. Reggie Bush
66. Matt Schaub
67. Aaron Hernandez
68. Demaryius Thomas
69. Jonathan Stewart
70. Antonio Brown
71. Robert Griffin III
72. Steve Johnson
73. Jermichael Finley
74. Pierre Garcon
75. Denarius Moore
76. Jermaine Gresham
77. BenJarvis Green-Ellis
78. Josh Freeman
79. Shonn Greene
80. Peyton Hillis
81. CJ Spiller
82. Roy Helu
83. Evan Royster
84. Rashad Mendenhall
85. Isaac Redman
86. Joe Flacco
87. Stevan Ridley
88. Robert Meachem
89. Torrey Smith
90. Brandon Pettigrew
91. Sam Bradford
92. Deangelo Williams
93. Desean Jackson
94. Kenny Britt
95. Cedric Benson
96. Titus Young
97. Alex Smith
98. Sidney Rice
99. Andy Dalton
100. Tony Gonzalez
101. Toby Gerhart
102. Jahvid Best
103. Beanie Wells
104. Santonio Holmes
105. Anquan Boldin
106. Carson Palmer
107. Ryan Williams
108. Reggie Wayne
109. San Francisco 49ers
110. Andrew Luck
111. Mikel Leshoure
112. Michael Bush
113. Jared Cook
114. Mark Ingram
115. Mike Williams
116. Jake Locker
117. Felix Jones
118. Russell Wilson
119. Pittsburgh Steelers
120. Lance Moore
121. Randall Cobb
122. Michael Crabtree
123. Seattle Seahawks
124. Tim Tebow
125. Jacob Tamme
126. Justin Blackmon
127. Baltimore Ravens
128. Matt Cassel
129. Donald Brown
130. Chicago Bears
131. Shane Vereen
132. Greg Little
133. Brandon LaFell
134. Leonard Hankerson
135. Doug Baldwin
136. Ryan Fitzpatrick
137. Kevin Kolb
138. Houston Texans
139. Malcolm Floyd
140. Darius Heyward-Bay
141. Philadelphia Eagles
142. Pierre Thomas
143. David Wilson
144. Nate Washington
145. Laurent Robinson
146. LaGarrette Blount
147. Mike Goodson
148. James Jones
149. Kevin Smith
150. New York Jets