2011 Record: 12-4

Point Differential:    +143  

Turnover Margin:   -13      

Sack Differential: +12 

Offense:

2011 Ranks

Rushing: 14th        

Passing: 10th           

3rd Down: 4th       

Scoring: 22nd 

Defense:

2011 Ranks

Rushing: 8th           

Passing: 1st

3rd Down: 18th     

Scoring: 1st

5 Reasons to Love:

1. Ben Roethlisberger is still quarterback. It’s not always pretty, but Roethlisberger is arguably the most clutch quarterback in the game today. He is the modern master of the dramatic comeback. He can play through pain. He extends plays and keeps his eyes down the field, able to make strong throws on the move over the top of the defense. He has thrown for over 4000 yards in two of the last three seasons, with above average completion and yards per attempt figures. He has the proven ability to pull out wins even when he’s having a bad game (see: Super Bowl XL). He’s a two-time Super Bowl champion with the confidence to prove it. As long as Roethlisberger is upright, the Steelers have a fighting chance in every game.
   
   
2. The pass rush. LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison are big-time pass rushing threats on opposite sides that have proven they can beat even the most accomplished tackles in the game. Last season was a down year and they still racked up nine sacks apiece, with another 30 combined QB pressures. That came with Woodley missing nearly half the season and Harrison missing five games as well. The best part of the twosome is that both are far more than just pass rushing specialists; few OLBs play the run more intuitively than Harrison, and he can drop in coverage and lay the lumber as well. The Steelers do have depth here with young Jason Worilds, who recorded a lot of QB pressures but struggled to finish them as sacks last year. Defensive Coordinator Dick Lebeau is a master of disguising blitzes and bringing pressure from different angles. Defensive ends Brett Keisel and Ziggy Hood have enough acumen to each put up double digit pressures and a handful of sacks. Don’t forget 2011 1st round pick Cameron Heyward, who will be counted on more in his second season and has good 5-technique pass rushing ability. Pro Bowl ILB Lawrence Timmons is noted more for his ability to snuff out runs and cover, but he had seven sacks in 2010 and has excellent timing on his blitzes as well. Some things just never change: cats chase mice, I order 12 Mango Habanero boneless with a tall Dos Equis at Buffalo Wild Wings, message board homers annoy everyone else, and the Pittsburgh Steelers get to the quarterback.
   
   
3. The wide receivers. Mike Wallace has been in the news all summer for his holdout, but obscured in that drama is the fact the Steelers have a lot of talent besides Wallace. Antonio Brown is essentially the same player as Wallace, a slender deep threat with great footwork on his routes. They both pulled down over 65 receptions with yards per catch averages over 16, giving them both over 1100 yards and not allowing defenses to key on one or the other. That sort of interchangeability is very hard to defend, particularly down the field. Nearly 79% of their 141 receptions went for 1st downs, and both are dangerous after the catch. Wallace had an off year (for him) in yards per catch and his number this year should be a lot closer to his career average of 18.7, but look for him to at least match his 2011 total of 8 touchdowns. Brown figures to get to the end zone more than twice. Then there’s Emmanuel Sanders, who fits the same physical profile and is eerily following the career path of Brown. The three of them on the field together is a coverage nightmare, and Roethlisberger plays no favorites. With multi-faceted tight end Heath Miller still a viable threat and reliable possession receiver Jericho Cotchery in the fold, the Steelers have one of the most talented and deepest cadre of receiving weapons in the league.
   
   
4. The coach. Mike Tomlin was largely unknown when he took over for Bill Cowher, but he has made his own indelible mark on the Steelers. Tough but sensitive to the players’ egos, brainy but with a street fighting mentality, Tomlin is one of the best coaches in the league. He understands how to push each individual player and knows that not everyone responds to the same style of learning. Players love playing for Tomlin, opponents respect him, and he has (largely) surrounded himself with like-minded coaches that are teachers and communicators as well as schematic savants. Dick Lebeau has over 50 years of NFL experience and a very deep and respectable coaching tree of disciples. Keith Butler, Carnell Lake, and John Mitchell are all assistants that will merit looks as head coaches at some point. Tomlin is smart enough to rely on his assistants and trust them, not micromanage them, a common pratfall for younger head men. He made a very curious addition (more on that later) but Tomlin has earned the benefit of the doubt for the way he prepares his teams and players, embracing the Steeler heritage while putting his own stamp on it.
   
   
5. Pass defense. It goes in hand with the pass rush, but one of the most underrated facets of any team in the league these days is how well the Steelers control the opposing passing game. Their DBs are excellent at limiting yards after the catch. That stems from a philosophical emphasis by Tomlin and Lebeau for them to understand that not every ball is going to be intercepted; sometimes the better play is to make the sure tackle or hit right after the catch instead of making a lower-percentage play on the ball. While Polamalu can struggle with that at times, the other DBs embrace it. Ryan Clark is fantastic in that capacity. Even with Polamalu’s freelancing, you almost never see the dreaded communication gaffes where a receiver slips down the field uncovered. I like the promising youngsters at corner, Cortez Allen, Curtis Brown, and Keenan Lewis. All have good length and understand how to tackle as well. They earned that #1 ranking in passing yards per game allowed for a reason, and though repeating that will be tough, I expect the Steelers to remain in the top 10.

5 Reasons to Be Worried:

1. The offensive line. Pittsburgh was counting on their top two draft picks in April, first rounder David DeCastro and 2nd rounder Mike Adams, to both immediately start and upgrade their positions. But DeCastro suffered a catastrophic knee injury in the preseason and is lost for the year, at least. Adams has been wildly overmatched both in practice and preseason action, clearly not ready for the NFL yet. That means the line that struggled so much last year reverts to a major issue. Maurkice Pouncey in the middle is strong but a tad overrated. Instead of Decastro, Ramon Foster returns at right guard; he is a second interior reserve at best on most teams. Max Starks, twice cut by the Steelers and never claimed on waivers, a red flag if there ever was, gets the left tackle spot. Willie Colon, who has missed all but one game the last two years, is the starting left guard essentially by default. 2nd year player Marcus Gilbert remains at right tackle. He’s a run blocking specialist on a team that doesn’t run the ball outside very often, and figures to do so even less with new Offensive Coordinator Todd Haley (more on him below!). Adams has been so poor he’s not even the top reserve tackle, unable to beat out perpetually about-to-be-cut Trai Essex. No line has given up more sacks in a five year period in NFL history (since 1982 when sacks became official) as the Steelers, and while some of that blame absolutely falls on Roethlisberger, they’re not good enough at run blocking to be that bad in pass protection. They will be both again.
   
   
2. The Todd Haley factor. The new Offensive Coordinator is arguably the least-liked coaching entity in professional sports today. When he was fired by the Chiefs last year, players that served under him with Arizona not-so-quietly cheered his misfortune and he’d been gone for over two years. Haley is creative and has an excellent track record of producing big plays and productive offenses, but he is also prickly, demanding, unrelenting, and hyper-critical, with a legendary temper to top it off. He has already clashed with Roethlisberger, and his curt nature is such that he is never wrong and will never apologize. While Roethlisberger had become a little too comfortable in taking liberties with Bruce Arians’ old offense, he has the jewelry to demand more respect than Haley could possibly grant him. The mutiny will come; it’s a matter of when, not if.
   
   
3. Age on defense. James Harrison is 34 and already nursing an injury. Larry Foote is 32 and has lost a step, causing him to have to arm tackle a lot more than he should. Casey Hampton turns 35 before the season starts and is coming off a torn ACL. Brett Keisel is 34 and has missed a host of games the past few seasons. Troy Polamalu is 31 and by his own admission has suffered hundreds of concussions. Fellow starting safety Ryan Clark will be 33 in October. Top corner Ike Taylor is 32. It’s one thing to have veteran experience; it’s another to be so heavily reliant on aging players that seldom, or in some cases never, come off the field. There is still a lot of talent, but the minor hurts get a lot harder to play through effectively the older you get and the range inevitably and inexorably declines. The young players they’ve drafted to take over for or occasionally spell many of these guys have largely failed to pan out.
   
   
4. Running the football. This goes deeper than the uncertain health of top back Rashard Mendenhall, though if he were 100% I’d feel a lot better about it. Mendenhall probably should start the season on PUP though it appears he will try to play sometime in September. Expectations should be very low as he comes back from a knee injury. The offensive line is not great at immediately opening holes or getting out beyond the initial block. Many of the runs come from a single back formation, not allowing for a fullback to serve as a lead blocker. While Heath Miller is a solid blocker, the other tight ends on the roster (Leonard Pope, Weslye Saunders) are not. Haley’s offense loves to spread out the defense, and that requires decisive runners with good vision. Mendenhall has the latter but doesn’t always exhibit the former. His erstwhile replacement, Isaac Redman, is a more physical runner that will more reliably churn out 3 to 6 yard gains but doesn’t offer the big hit ability. I am optimistic that rookie Chris Rainey will thrive in the limited 3rd down back role in Haley’s offense. He’ll likely get more receptions than carries but that functions as a de facto run game from the shotgun spread. Jonathan Dwyer did rush for 100 yards against Tennessee last year, but that’s nearly 80% of his two-year output. There is potential here, and the Steelers did rank in the upper half of the league in both rushing yards and yards per carry a year ago. But any time the feature back of an offense is coming off knee surgery, and a new offensive coordinator noted for throwing first and second takes over looking to make a mark, it’s hard to project the same kind of success.
   
   
5. The schedule. Every road game they play, with the exception of their annual beatdown in Cleveland of the host Browns, features trips to teams that won eight or more game a year ago. They get their home date with the rival Ravens on a short week, coming off a Monday night game against what looks to be a solid Chiefs team looking to get payback on Haley. More to the point, they play a lot of teams that have defenses that are very good at getting to the quarterback: Philadelphia, Dallas, Oakland, Cincinnati, the Giants, Washington. Even Cleveland has some solid pass rushing ability. They open at Denver in Peyton Manning’s mountain debut, a game that Ryan Clark has to miss, followed by a very physical Jets team that is the antipode of the Broncos. They do that later with the Giants and Chiefs and also the Bengals and Redskins. That means weekly game plans have to be more dramatically changed than normal a few times. The Steelers do have the built in benefit of, well, being the Pittsburgh Steelers, but this is a tough slate and they tend to get other teams’ (minus Cleveland) best efforts.

Breakout player: Keenan Lewis. The tall 3rd year corner beat out the other leading candidate for this honor, Cortez Allen, for the starting corner job opposite Ike Taylor. Both will play extensively, but Lewis offers deeper range and more ability to get his hands on the ball. Both young corners are ready to go.

Forecast: This is certainly a good team, but I don’t believe it is up to what most people expect of the Steelers of recent vintage. The injuries and age on defense worry me, as does the pass protection and underwhelming rotation at running back. If some young players (Heyward, Sanders, Allen, Worilds, Dwyer) really step up there is no reason Pittsburgh won’t be back in the playoffs. As I wrote above, as long as Roethlisberger is upright and the defense can generate pressure the Steelers have a fighting chance in every game. But I’m just not sold that either of those can persist over a tough 16-game schedule. This looks to be one of those hiccup years in Pittsburgh, and those happen to follow a predictable pattern; they have a down year followed by two very strong years, then back down for a season. Their depths are obviously a lot higher than most other teams, as the last time they bottomed out (2003) they still went 6-10. I look for Pittsburgh to slide back to an 8-8 or 9-7 finish that keeps them out of the playoffs. Put me down for eight wins thanks to the injury issues already plaguing the team in August.

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