RealGM Analysis
Stars of Week 6
QB: Jameis Winston, TB: 30-41, 395 yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs
RB: Todd Gurley, LAR: 28 carries, 208 yards, 2 TDs
WR: Tyreek Hill, KC: 7 catches, 142 yards, 3 TDs
TE: Eric Ebron, IND: 4 catches, 71 yards, 1 TD
We’re through just over one-third of the NFL season, and we’ve had plenty of interesting storylines this year. Patrick Mahomes is the next generational QB superstar, the Rams remain the last undefeated team and Jon Gruden should have stayed in the broadcast booth. Lots of excitement remains ahead in what should be a fantastic 2018 season. Speaking of excitement, Jameis Winston has returned to the starting lineup for the Bucs, and he has picked up where Fitz Magic (Ryan Fitzpatrick’s dazzling alter ego) left off. Winston put up very solid numbers against the Falcons, and we’ll take a closer look at his fantasy value moving forward below. The fantasy league MVP has been running back Todd Gurley this season, and he continues to dominate week to week. Wide receiver Tyreek Hill has had a career season thus far, using his world class speed to become a superhero in his own right. The Mahomes-Hill combo has been electric, and Hill has made himself into a top 5 WR. Last but not least, Eric Ebron has been reborn with the Colts, scoring nearly a TD per game. Ebron remains a back half TE1, and will continue to produce.
Week 6 Takeaways – A Closer Look
Each week we take a closer look at a handful of performances and sort out what such performances mean going forward.
- Jameis Winston, QB – TB: 30-41, 395 yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs
Analysis: Remember the Bucs upsetting the Saints in Week 1, and then the Eagles in Week 2, with Fitz Magic playing out of his mind? Well, predictably Ryan Fitzpatrick’s magic ended with a thud and Jameis Winston got his starting gig back shortly after returning from suspension. Now in his fourth year in the NFL, Winston has had an up and down career. Winston looked like a franchise passer after his second season, only to stagnate in terms of his growth last year. The Bucs will have a huge decision to make following the year in terms of whether or not to pick up Winston’s fifth year option, or to provide an extension, etc. Good thing we only have to decide whether or not Winston should be in our starting lineups! As for this question, consider these key points: 1) the Bucs have no defense, 2) the Bucs have no running game, and 3) while Winston doesn’t always make great decisions (look at his career INT percentage), he can sling it. Winston has a strong receiving corps and will constantly be placed in game situations requiring that he throw. So, this amounts to a back end QB1 who can elevate to a top-5 option against bad passing defenses. Don’t be afraid to ride Winston as your starting QB.
- Jordan Howard, RB – CHI: 14 carries, 69 yards, 0 TDs
Analysis: While the numbers above look reasonable on their face, if you watched Howard’s usage throughout the game, you’d have come to a different conclusion. With the second quarter winding down, Howard lost a fumble while on Dolphins’ one yard line, and subsequently didn’t get another carry until the fourth quarter. Howard has yet to cross the 100 yard mark in a game this year, and only has one TD through five matchups. Howard’s lack of productivity has come despite facing a schedule with friendly rushing defenses. At the same time, Tarik Cohen has significantly outproduced Howard when you also factor in the passing game. For now, Howard remains the Bears primary ball carrier, but one more fumble could change that. Howard should be downgraded from RB2 to flex, and he’s no longer a weekly starter – at least not until he fixes whatever ails him.
- Amari Cooper, WR – OAK: 0 catches, 0 yards, 0 TDs, 1 target
Analysis: Has any team’s future gone downhill more quickly than that of the soon-to-be Las Vegas Raiders? I’ll go ahead and answer that with an emphatic NO! Jon Gruden has screwed this team up in virtually every way possible, and it looks like the carnage will only continue. Amari Cooper left the game early against the Seahawks due to injury, but if you take a look at last week’s stats, you’ll see one catch for 10 yards. Cooper has twice cleared the 100 yard mark, and in the other four games, has failed to exceed 17 yards receiving. That just doesn’t work for you, for me or for anyone else with a vested interest in Cooper’s performance. The Raiders are in a free fall, and Cooper needs to sit on your bench until further notice. One more key point to consider – Cooper’s name has been floated in trade rumors, and a change of scenery could revive his value in a hurry. So if you can acquire Cooper on the cheap and have the bench space to stash, there could be a payoff in the near future.
- Taylor Gabriel, WR – CHI: 5 catches, 110 yards, 0 TDs
Analysis: We’ve looked at a Chicago Bear who has disappointed, and now we take a look at a player trending in the other direction. Taylor Gabriel played a supporting role with the Atlanta Falcons the last two years, and he moved to the Bears in the offseason to chase a better opportunity with the rising club. Starting opposite Allen Robinson, Gabriel has made himself a key target for QB Mitch Trubisky. Taylor has surpassed 100 yards each of the last two weeks, and has been targeted roughly 7 times per game on average. Gabriel has accumulated 27 catches on those 34 targets, and with that level of success, Trubisky will give Gabriel plenty of looks. Gabriel is a must add if you need a WR, and he should be considered a healthy flex option.
- Chester Rogers, WR – IND: 4 catches, 55 yards, 1 TD
Analysis: While TY Hilton has missed the last two games for the Colts, Chester Rogers has stepped up to fill a large portion of the void. Rogers scored his first TD of the season this past Sunday against the Colts, and was targeted by Luck 10 times. If that sounds like a fluke, note that over the two prior weeks, Luck targeted Rogers 11 times per game. Even upon Hilton’s eventual return, Rogers has staying power in the Colts offense. Given that the Colts’ defense is all kinds of bad, the team will be chasing points in most games, which will continue to lead to usage for Rogers. While Hilton remains out, Rogers will continue to get 10 targets a game, while settling in the 6-8 target range when Hilton returns. For leagues with 12 or more teams, Rogers is a viable starter while Hilton remains out, and a borderline WR3/WR4 when Hilton starts alongside him.
Rapid Fire Pickups
Each week we throw out potential free agent pickups from each position for deeper leagues, in each case 1) someone who has NOT been featured above, and 2) a player available in most leagues.
QB: Mitch Trubisky, CHI
RB: Mike Davis, SEA
RB: Marlon Mack, IND
WR: Chris Godwin, TB
WR: Albert Wilson, MIA
TE: Ricky Seals-Jones, ARI
Week 7 Rankings
Quarterbacks:
- Patrick Mahomes, KC Cin
- Matt Ryan, Atl NYG
- Andy Dalton, Cin @KC
- Jared Goff, LAR @SF
- Jameis Winston, TB Cle
- Cam Newton, Car @Phi
- Kirk Cousins, Min @NYJ
- Tom Brady, NE @Chi
- Carson Wentz, Phi Car
- Drew Brees, NO @Bal
- Andrew Luck, Ind Buf
- Philip Rivers, LAC Ten
- Matthew Stafford, Det @Mia
- Mitchell Trubisky, Chi NE
- Deshaun Watson, Hou @Jax
- Baker Mayfield, Cle @TB
- Eli Manning, NYG @Atl
- Alex Smith, Wsh Dal
- Dak Prescott, Dal @Wsh
- Joe Flacco, Bal NO
Running Backs:
- Todd Gurley, LAR @SF
- Saquon Barkley, NYG @Atl
- Ezekiel Elliott, Dal @Wsh
- Alvin Kamara, NO @Bal
- Kareem Hunt, KC Cin
- Joe Mixon, Cin @KC
- C. McCaffrey, Car @Phi
- Sony Michel, NE @Chi
- T.J. Yeldon, Jax Hou
- James White, NE @Chi
- Dalvin Cook, Min @NYJ
- Tevin Coleman, Atl NYG
- LeSean McCoy, Buf @Ind
- Nick Chubb, Cle @TB
- Mark Ingram II, NO @Bal
- Adrian Peterson, Wsh Dal
- Chris Thompson, Wsh Dal
- Tarik Cohen, Chi NE
- Matt Breida, SF LAR
- Alex Collins, Bal NO
- Kenyan Drake, Mia Det
- Bilal Powell, NYJ Min
- Jordan Howard, Chi NE
- Kerryon Johnson, Det @Mia
- Corey Clement, Phi Car
- Marlon Mack, Ind Buf
- W. Smallwood, Phi Car
- Dion Lewis, Ten @LAC
- Lamar Miller, Hou @Jax
- Isaiah Crowell, NYJ Min
- Peyton Barber, TB Cle
- Javorius Allen, Bal NO
- Ito Smith, Atl NYG
- Duke Johnson, Cle @TB
- Nyheim Hines, Ind Buf
- Austin Ekeler, LAC Ten
- Frank Gore, Mia Det
- Derrick Henry, Ten @LAC
- LeGarrette Blount, Det @Mia
- Raheem Mostert, SF LAR
Wide Receivers:
- Adam Thielen, Min @NYJ
- Odell Beckham Jr., NYG @Atl
- Julio Jones, Atl NYG
- A.J. Green, Cin @KC
- DeAndre Hopkins, Hou @Jax
- Tyreek Hill, KC Cin
- Michael Thomas, NO @Bal
- Mike Evans, TB Cle
- Keenan Allen, LAC Ten
- Stefon Diggs, Min @NYJ
- Jarvis Landry, Cle @TB
- Robert Woods, LAR @SF
- Golden Tate, Det @Mia
- Brandin Cooks, LAR @SF
- T.Y. Hilton, Ind Buf
- Tyler Boyd, Cin @KC
- Alshon Jeffery, Phi Car
- Julian Edelman, NE @Chi
- Kenny Golladay, Det @Mia
- Allen Robinson, Chi NE
- Josh Gordon, NE @Chi
- Devin Funchess, Car @Phi
- Sterling Shepard, NYG @Atl
- Michael Crabtree, Bal NO
- Marvin Jones Jr., Det @Mia
- Mohamed Sanu, Atl NYG
- Taylor Gabriel, Chi NE
- Sammy Watkins, KC Cin
- John Brown, Bal NO
- Marquise Goodwin, SF LAR
- Corey Davis, Ten @LAC
- Will Fuller, Hou @Jax
- Willie Snead, Bal NO
- Nelson Agholor, Phi Car
- DeSean Jackson, TB Cle
- Calvin Ridley, Atl NYG
- Chris Godwin, TB Cle
- Keke Coutee, Hou @Jax
- Dede Westbrook, Jax Hou
- Jermaine Kearse, NYJ Min
Tight End:
- Travis Kelce, KC Cin
- Zach Ertz, Phi Car
- George Kittle, SF LAR
- Eric Ebron, Ind Buf
- David Njoku, Cle @TB
- Greg Olsen, Car @Phi
- Jordan Reed, Wsh Dal
- Austin Hooper, Atl NYG
- Evan Engram, NYG @Atl
- O.J. Howard, TB Cle
- C.J. Uzomah, Cin @KC
- Trey Burton, Chi NE
- Kyle Rudolph, Min @NYJ
- Benjamin Watson, NO @Bal
- Cameron Brate, TB Cle
- Geoff Swaim, Dal @Wsh
- Charles Clay, Buf @Ind
- Gerald Everett, LAR @SF
- Hayden Hurst, Bal NO
- Vernon Davis, Was Dal
Defense/Special Teams:
- Los Angeles Chargers Ten
- Jacksonville Jaguars Hou
- Los Angeles Rams @SF
- Houston Texans @Jax
- Minnesota Vikings @NYJ
- Indianapolis Colts Buf
- Philadelphia Eagles Car
- Cleveland Browns @TB
- Buffalo Bills @Ind
- Baltimore Ravens NO
- Carolina Panthers @Phi
- Chicago Bears NE
- Dallas Cowboys @Was
- Washington Redskins Dal
- Detroit Lions @Mia
