Last week: 12-3. That lifts the season forecast to 56-37 straight up.

All lines here are from Bovada.lv as of 2:45 p.m. ET on Oct. 16th

Thursday Night

- Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinal (+2.5): On a night where the NBA season kicks into full action with LeBron’s debut in Lakers colors, the baseball league championship series flies as high as the sinking sport can raise its flag, a solid NHL slate and a decent college game are all available, the NFL offers us two of its least-inspiring teams and boring offenses. Check, please!

Broncos 20, Cardinals 17

Sunday

- Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-5): The winner here seizes control of the AFC South. If you watched these two teams over the last two weeks, you’d be quite bullish on Toro and the Texans. They’ve won three in a row with the defense making more plays and Deshaun Watson somehow surviving behind his truly wretched offensive line.

I think the Jaguars defensive front has a “get right” game here. Dallas punched them in the mouth and the Jags just waited and bled. In true Slipknot style, the Jaguars hate will rise up, they’ll make the Texans kneel before them and clear away the leaves. Give yourself a fist bump and Corey Taylor scream if you know that song… 

Jaguars 34, Texans 22 

- New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5): The Ravens have the league’s best scoring defense. They have allowed one touchdown in the last 15 quarters. 

The Saints have the league’s best scoring offense. Prior to their bye week, the Saints scored 43, 33 and 43 points in wins. They scored 40 in their one loss.

If you effectively cancel those out, you’re left with the Ravens 12th-ranked scoring offense against the Saints 26th-ranked scoring defense. In Baltimore. Don’t forget the Ravens have the best kicker in NFL history in Justin Tucker in case it’s close. 

Ravens 37, Saints 33

- Dallas Cowboys at Washington (-1.5): Do we trust the series history here? Dallas has won the last five meetings in Washington and has won eight of 10 overall in the NFC East rivalry. 

The Cowboys team that whipped the Jaguars last week will beat Washington. They might beat anyone. But I worry a lot about overconfidence and false positives from Dallas. Their injuries all over the roster do not help the Cowboys argument in what will be a chilly (51 degrees and 15 mph wind) afternoon in Landover. Those invariable, inevitable deep thigh bruises and twisted ankles impact just a little harder in the brisk breeze.

Washington 27, Dallas 17

- Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5): The Titans beat the Eagles and Jaguars in back-to-back weeks. Since then they lost to the Bills and got shut out by the Ravens. That’s the same Ravens team which lost to the Browns the week prior, the same Browns team which the Chargers just blasted in Cleveland. There’s a transitive property effect working here that I’m not going to try to understand or fight. The Philip Rivers MVP campaign gains some steam in this early kickoff from London. Don’t believe me? Just watch... 

Chargers 30, Titans 17 

- New England Patriots at Chicago Bears (+3.5): Mitchell Trubisky, meet Bill Belichick. You’re probably not going to like how he treats you. The Patriots offense is getting right quickly, and that’s a problem for opposing teams. The New England defense is vulnerable, but not that vulnerable.

Patriots 32, Bears 28 

- Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5): The most favorable matchup in this game is the Eagles defensive front against Carolina’s O-line. No matter how I try to get past that, Philly’s massive advantage here simply cannot be overlooked. Cam Newton will break out a couple of big plays under duress but I believe the Eagles D at home forces a couple of big plays in its own favor. 

Speaking of which, why don’t we utilise the more colourful English spelling of more words?

Eagles 24, Panthers 17

- Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts (-7.5): Derek Anderson is the new starting QB for the Bills. Josh Allen is hurt (again) and Nathan Peterman is awful (again). So why do the Bills have a real chance to win? Their defense is legit and plays well together. The Colts offense...not so much. Expect a lot of punts; these teams rank 1st and 3rd in 3-and-out percentage on offense. Watch this one at your peril, or put on the Benny Hill theme to put these miserable offenses in their proper context.

Colts 16, Bills 13 

- Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3): The Cleveland defense has not been the same since losing starting CB Terrance Mitchell. The Bucs are a bad opponent to have secondary struggles against. Denzel Ward and Damarious Randall can only do so much. It’s incumbent upon Myles Garrett and the Joe Schobert-less front to force Jameis Winston into mistakes. Tampa’s complete inability to run the ball should help. Expect a close one with poor special teams. 

Buccaneers 23, Browns 21

- Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets (+3.5): I liked the Jets a lot more in this matchup before I got a gander at the injury report. If you can name the Jets offensive starter, he’s on the list. The Vikings have some issues of their own, notably rookie CB Mike Hughes, but unless the healing waters of the East River magically reanimate the vitality of Robby Anderson, Isaiah Crowell, Quincy Enunwa and Sam Darnold, it’s hard to buy the home team. 

Vikings 27, Jets 17

- Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins (NL): Brocktober will continue in Miami as Brock Osweiler gets another start over Ryan Tannehill for the Dolphins. I’m not an Osweiler hater, and at this point, it’s hard to argue he doesn’t give Miami a better chance to win than the oft-injured and uninspiring Tannehill.

But I’ve watched enough of Osweiler to know he’s apt to give the Lions defense multiple chances to make game-changing plays. Between that and a rested Lions offense coming off a bye with Kenny Golladay emerging as a fantastic receiver in his second season, I think the Lions roar on the road.

Lions 26, Dolphins 21 

- Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (+10): The Niners on a short week after a heartbreaking loss where they played over their collective heads? Against the last undefeated team? Pray for the home team. This is the survivor fantasy pick of the week.

Rams 37, 49ers 14 

- Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-6): Kansas City hopes to get back on the winning path after the thriller in New England. They came up just short. If they can’t play defense for more than half a game -- and they haven’t shown that ability all year -- the Bengals could play the role of militant vegan at a KC barbecue. If Cody Core and even A.J. Green can get past the drop issues of last week, they can drop a loss on the Chiefs. The forecast for the upset is higher than you might think.

Chiefs 34, Bengals 31

Monday Night

- New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons (-6): It would be so 2018 if Eli Manning rose up, shut everyone up and threw for 416 yards and 5 TDs in a dominating performance on national television in the midst of all the turmoil and talk of replacing him in New York. It would be even more 2018 if Eli did that and still lost because the Giants defense lets Matt Ryan do it too. 

Falcons 42, Giants 41

College Games

Very good slate of games kicking off on Thursday night in the PAC 12 after dark.

Arizona State 28, Stanford 24

Oklahoma 36, TCU 30

Duke 30, Virginia 27. Watch this one for Duke QB Daniel Jones, who could be a first-round pick.

Ohio 52, Bowling Green 44. Go Bobcats!

Michigan 28, Michigan State 20. The Wolverines should win by 20. Should.

North Carolina State 26, Clemson 24

LSU 20, Mississippi State 17

Oregon 57, Washington State 48. I never trust Mike Leach in big games.