Last week: 10-5, the best week of the season so far. 44-34 on the season, with the record on ties factored based on how I bet the spread (2-1) in those games.

Thursday Night

- Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (+3.5): The Giants finally pulled the plug on the Ereck Flowers experiment, cutting the 2015 first-round flop. Unfortunately, they’ll also be without 2017 1st-rounder Evan Engram, as the tight end is injured. The Eagles have had their struggles but the defending champs are still great on both lines. The Giants...not so much.

Eagles 27, Giants 12

Sunday 

- Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns (+1.5): The line for this game has been all over the place, reflecting the uncertainty the professionals have with both teams. It’s settled back at 1.5 at most books after opening there and then fluctuating between even and +2.5 for the home Browns, who are looking for their first 2-game win streak since Week 10 of 2014.

This game could very well come down to which kicker is less terrible. Greg Joseph hit the game-winner at the end of overtime against Baltimore for the Browns last week, a kick which was partially blocked. Oddly enough, he made a couple a week earlier that had the same knuckleball action. Chargers kicker Caleb Sturgis has somehow missed 4 extra points this year. The last time the Chargers visited Cleveland a last-second blocked FG carried the Browns to the only win in Hue Jackson’s first two seasons. History repeats itself, this time with a much more talented Browns team getting the win.

Browns 24, Chargers 23 

- Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-3): The most hyped game on the schedule pits the resurgent Patriots against the undefeated Chiefs. Kansas City really impressed in how well they handled the powerful Jaguars last week, but Jacksonville doesn’t have Tom Brady. Or Gronk. Or Julian Edelman. Or Bill Belichick. 

The Patriots will need all of those considerable assets to slow down and outscore Patrick Mahomes & Co. Before last week and the Chiefs defensive fortitude, I would have strongly leaned towards the Patriots here. But last week showed me the Kansas City offense doesn’t have to put up 30-plus to win. That’s important because I don’t think they’ll get that much in New England. Even so, it’s really hard to stay undefeated this long against a team who has done that better than anyone in the last 45 years. 

Patriots 29, Chiefs 27 

- Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-10): The Bills do not have the ability to match up with DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller and impressive rookie Keke Coutee being fed by Deshaun Watson. But if they can pressure and hit Watson, they’ve got a real chance in this game. Josh Allen will have to be sharper than he has been, and the Bills OL against J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney and the Texans front is a major problem for the visitors in the Brian Gaine grudge match. 

Texans 29, Bills 10

- Carolina Panthers at Washington (-1): One of the more common refrains during NFL season is “Washington is better than it showed.” That was certainly true when last we saw the Skins, who played the role of hydrant to the Saints dog last week. They also did that in their second game, the only team to fall to the undertalented Colts all season.

Their pattern dictates this is another week where Washington rises up and reminds why so many think they are indeed “better” than they sometimes show. Carolina is also prone to those inconsistencies.

Washington 28, Panthers 21 

- Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3): This one is all about the potential for personal fouls and playing well beyond the whistle. Both teams expect it from one another. It happens more often than it doesn’t, it seems. I think the biggest fracas comes on a late hit on Andy Dalton, something the Cincinnati offensive line will allow too easily to red-hot T.J. Watt or Bud Dupree. If the Steelers can’t get to Dalton their secondary is in for a very long day chasing A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd all over the field.

Steelers 27, Bengals 24 

- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5): Atlanta is just way too talented on offense to fall to 1-5. If Grady Jarrett can go (he’s questionable) that will help the Falcons woefully wounded defense quite a bit. This one could emerge as a fun, defenseless shootout of a game that is likely Atlanta’s last chance to save the season.

Falcons 40, Buccaneers 34

- Jacksonville Jaguars at Dallas Cowboys (+3): Calling it now--big bounce-back game for the Jaguars after last week’s lifeless loss. Dak Prescott is going to have to play significantly better than he has all season to keep this one within 10 points. This is my survivor fantasy pick of the week, the rare time I’ll choose a road team.

Jaguars 31, Cowboys 17

- Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos (+7): The way to beat the Rams is to stress their defense and challenge vertically, finding the holes in the seams when the QB gets enough time to survey the weak back end of LA’s defense. Unfortunately for Denver, that’s not what Case Keenum does well.

Rams 30, Broncos 21

- Seattle Seahawks at Oakland Raiders (+3): Pete Carroll vs. Jon Gruden in London. Gimmie the one who won the 2013 Super Bowl over the one still trying to win it from the broadcast booth.

Seahawks 36, Raiders 31 

- Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-2.5): The Colts dumped CB Lenzy Pipkins a week after he led the team in solo tackles. Pipkins was lousy in coverage and picked upon, but the Colts are not in the position to give away a guy who was capable of starting for them one week. Newcomer Mike Mitchell at safety is an upgrade, however. They’ll need a few more given the lengthy injury list which includes TE Eric Ebron for four separate leg maladies. 

Jets 33, Colts 24 

- Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (+3): Hard to know what to expect from the Titans. Tennessee has beaten the Eagles and Jaguars but lost to the Bills. Was that just a letdown game after the two impressive victories? We’ll find out with the Ravens coming to town off a humbling loss of their own in Cleveland. Toughest forecast on the weekend slate, and not just because of the expected rains in Nashville for Sunday.

Ravens 27, Titans 24

- Chicago Bears at Miami Dolphins (+3): The well-rested Bears do one thing very well: rush the passer. That’s a huge problem for the Dolphins and skittish QB Ryan Tannehill. The only QB with a worse QB rating under pressure than Tannehill is Josh Allen. Bad matchup for the home team. 

Bears 20, Dolphins 14 

- Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-10.5): Congrats to the Arizona Cardinals on finally escaping the winless realm! Your reward is a trip to Minnesota to play the desperately underperforming Vikings, a team clamoring for a Sunday where both the offense and defense play well at the same time. Getting an undramatic field goal or two would also be welcome. Arizona has proven very little resistance to other teams performing quite well; they were whipped in everything but the scoreboard even in their win. They won’t get No. 2 this week.

Vikings 36, Cardinals 16

Monday Night

- San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-9.5): The 49ers played their best statistical game of the season in Arizona and somehow lost by 10 to a winless team. The Packers dominated the Lions on the stat sheet and somehow lost by 8 to a 1-3 team. Five missed kicks will do that. One of those outcomes is a fluke. The forecast strongly suggests it was the home team that was the fluke.

Packers 32, 49ers 17 

College Games

Notre Dame 33, Pittsburgh 30

Auburn 28, Tennessee 10

Alabama 58, Missouri 36

Northern Illinois 37, Ohio 31 

Michigan 24, Wisconsin 20

Georgia 27, LSU 18