Last week: 11-3, finally a big week! 59-47 on the season if my math is correct.

Thursday Night

- Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-3): Matt Moore takes over for an injured Jay Cutler at QB for Miami. I’ve always been a fan of Moore’s game; he’s consistently played well when given a chance. Moore should have a strong night in Baltimore, where the schizo Ravens have vulnerabilities. The Baltimore offense doesn’t scare anyone these days except Ravens fans.

Dolphins 20, Ravens 10

Sunday

- Minnesota Vikings vs. Cleveland Browns (+9.5) in London: DeShone Kizer will start again for the Browns, but Myles Garrett and several other defensive regulars are likely out. Browns coach Hue Jackson might want to stay in London as his winless team suffers yet another loss. Cleveland fans certainly wouldn’t mind…

Vikings 23, Browns 12

- San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-13): In this season of Any Given Sunday, this would be the ultimate upset. The winless 49ers on the road for an early start against the NFL’s last one-loss team? Don’t bet on it but don’t be overconfident, either.

Eagles 24, 49ers 14

- Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots (-7.5): Another game featuring a Pacific Time Zone team traveling east to play a 1 PM Eastern kickoff, and the host Patriots had better be wary. Losing LB Dont’a Hightower for the season is yet another blow for a New England defense that benefitted more from Atlanta’s offensive incompetence than any improvement on its own last week. The Chargers are trending in the right direction, but the Patriots aren’t apt to lose a third home game this year in these circumstances.

Patriots 30, Chargers 28

- Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills (-2.5): In keeping with the theme of the West Coast teams playing early games, keep a wary eye on the upset but expect the home team to prevail. I’d like the Raiders more here if I trusted Amari Cooper to catch the ball.

Bills 34, Raiders 27

- Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2): The Panthers are reeling, losers of two in a row. The Bucs have lost three in a row, all by 5 points or less. Neither QB looks on top of his game right now, as both Cam Newton and Jameis Winston are struggling. I think the Bucs’ relative superiority in both offense and defense in the red zone helps them prevail at home.

Buccaneers 20, Panthers 16

- Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets (+4.5): This game opened with the Falcons favored by 7. The professionals are indeed negative enough on the Falcons offense, or maybe bullish on the Jets D, to move the line way down. I get that Steve Sarkisian is doing a terrible job as Atlanta’s offensive coordinator, but that seems crazy to me. The Jets are not pushovers, not by any means, but they shouldn’t be within a touchdown of the reigning NFC champs. If the Falcons have any dignity or chance to repeat repping their conference, this game won’t be close. Let’s just say I’m not very confident they’ll pull that off…

Falcons 29, Jets 27

- Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (-10.5): This game presents a little geography lesson. Most people assume that Cincinnati’s closest NFL rival in proximity is Cleveland, but the home of the Bengals is a short 112 miles from Indianapolis. That’s less than half the distance between Cleveland and Cincinnati. That’s about the only interesting thing I could think of about this game between two teams destined to pick in the top 5 next year.

Bengals 23, Colts 16

- Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (-9): Mitchell Trubisky will need to complete more than 4 passes to outscore the Saints. Adding Dontrelle Inman at wideout via trade is a nice upgrade for the Bears. Alas, his impact probably won’t be too dramatic against the Saints improving defense.

Saints 30, Bears 10

- Houston Texans at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5): Deshaun Watson has been fantastic as the Texans rookie QB. His playmaking ability makes him a strong candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year. He hasn’t really had a bad game yet…until here in Seattle. Pete Carroll’s Seahawks are fantastic at home, and Carroll doesn’t lose at CenturyLink to rookie QBs. He won’t here, either.

Seahawks 32, Texans 17

- Dallas Cowboys at Washington (+2): If Washington was healthy I’d like them to prevail here, but their two best starting offensive linemen are likely out. Top corner Josh Norman is iffy too. Tough to win against a dangerous, if unpredictable, Cowboys team while missing so many key pieces.

Cowboys 26, Washington 24

- Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions (+3): Pittsburgh sure seems like the better team on paper here, but some circumstances give the home Lions a great chance. First, the Steelers offense continues to underachieve, and they do so even more on the road. The Detroit defense has played well all season and is getting healthier off a much-needed bye week.

That bye week is key. Lions coach Jim Caldwell has never lost a game coming out of a bye. Detroit’s offense has had time to regroup after becoming stale and predictable. I have enough faith in Caldwell to pull off the improbable upset.

Lions 24, Steelers 21

Monday Night

- Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5): Trevor Siemian is not outgunning Alex Smith, no matter how good the Broncos defense might be. Don’t overthink this one, but you might want to think twice about Kareem Hunt carrying your fantasy team this week.

Chiefs 20, Broncos 9

College Games

West Virginia 39, Oklahoma State 35

Georgia 24, Florida 10

TCU 30, Iowa State 24

Ohio State 28, Penn State 27

Notre Dame 33, NC State 25

Northwestern 24, Michigan State 22