Last week: 6-7, but I’ll take it given the brutal outcomes for favorites. 47-44 on the year

In Week 6, the favored team won outright less than half the time. Losses by Denver, Atlanta, Green Bay, Baltimore, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville and Oakland made for a brutal weekend for the alleged better teams. Will that Any Given Sunday theme carry over into another week?

I’ve been on a bit of a cold streak, and some of the reason is I’m overthinking the matchups. This week will be all guttural picks and minimal explanation, sort of like the comments section of any politically sensitive topic these days.

Thursday Night

- Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (+3): I smell a rebound game for the Chiefs offense. Khalil Mack is a problem for Kareem Hunt, Alex Smith & Co. but Kansas City will find enough points to outscore a disappointing Oakland offense.

Chiefs 28, Raiders 16

Sunday Games

- Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots (-3): The Super Bowl rematch has lost some luster with the Falcons’ unexpected sputtering and the Patriots’ historically awful defense. Something has to give between Matt Ryan’s recent run of middling play and the Patriots allowing yardage totals that don’t seem possible. I’ll ride with the home team, though Ryan will throw 3 TD passes. It won’t be enough to match Tom Brady.

Patriots 40, Falcons 31

- Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5): Minnesota’s defense at home against the struggling Joe Flacco and Baltimore’s punchless offense is probably the biggest mismatch of the weekend. I don’t trust Minnesota’s offense no matter who is playing QB, but they’re better than the Ravens edition.

Vikings 24, Ravens 6

- New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-3): I have no idea how Miami has won three games. The comeback stunner over Atlanta is a bit of a validation for their success despite a thin roster. The Jets are also better than anyone expected, but I see their offense sputtering on the road here in a low-scoring affair.

Dolphins 17, Jets 13

- Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (+6): The Browns have little chance here unless the defense can score at least once. The good thing for Cleveland is that Jason McCourty did notch a pick-six last week and Myles Garrett is a freaking animal already, so that could happen. This is actually the best Xs and Os matchup the Browns get all year. Everything Tennessee is good at is what the Browns are good at countering. It’s a short week with travel involved for the Titans as well. Too bad DeShone Kizer and the worst group of WRs this side of Youngstown won’t be able to light up a vulnerable Titans secondary.

Titans 23, Browns 20

- Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (+3): Once Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky gets some legit weapons in the passing game, look out. Alas, Chicago lacks those now. That enables Carolina to escape what looks to be a sunny and mild Soldier Field with the road win.

Panthers 24, Bears 17

Arizona at LA Rams (-3.5): This game is in London but is not the early 9 AM kickoff, which completely defeats the point of having teams play in London. Those of us in the Eastern Time Zone love the London games because we get an extra game to watch while we drink our coffee and eat our Sunday biscuits. It’s still an early start on the West Coast for the home markets, and nobody in Los Angeles is getting up early to watch the Rams. Hell, they don’t even go to the games when they kick off in the middle of the afternoon.

Rams 27, Cardinals 13

- Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (+3.5): I typed Jacksonville incorrectly 7 times in writing this. That pisses me off. The Colts pull the upset as some sort on inexplicable karmic retribution for my faulty typing skills.

Colts 25, Jaguars 21

- Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-1): The Chargers rally from 0-4 to playoff berth continues against the banged up Broncos, who come on short rest from their debilitating loss Sunday night to the Giants.

Chargers 25, Broncos 16

- Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (+6): My wife spent the past week in San Francisco and I asked her to talk to some locals and get their impression on the game. After she gave me the double middle-finger salute in our video chat for trying to waste her valuable time, she told me she’s seen more Cowboys gear than Niners gear during the week. Good enough for me…

Cowboys 21, 49ers 20

- Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5): The bigger question in the AFC North slugfest isn’t who wins, but whether will there be more penalties than points? I liked enough of what I saw from Pittsburgh’s offense last week to ride with the home team, but the Bengals can strike over the top. I’ll take the over on +/- 21 penalties, too.

Steelers 20, Bengals 18

- New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (+6): Life without Aaron Rodgers begins in a tough spot for the Packers. New Orleans’ defense is playing really well right now, able to get pressure from the likes of Cam Jordan but also cover on the back end with superb rookie CB Marshon Lattimore. Brett Hundley does have some ability and there is a natural tendency for a team to rally well around the backup the first week after the star falls, but with the other injury issues on Green Bay I don’t see them having enough this week. Unseasonably warm and pleasant weather won’t help the home team, either.

Saints 32, Packers 27

- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills (-3): As crazy as this sounds, this is just the second time the Buccaneers have ever visited Buffalo. Tampa Bay has been around since 1976 but never played in Buffalo before 2009. They lost that game. Make it 0-2 in Buffalo as these Bucs are not pretty on the road.

Bills 29, Buccaneers 17

- Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants (+5.5): I hate myself for this but Seattle playing on the road with that abysmal offensive line is enough to convince me the Giants continue their improbable rebound despite having every WR you’ve ever heard of o their roster being hurt. The Seahawks have blown more obvious wins than this one before.

Giants 18, Seahawks 15

Monday Night

- Washington at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5): The Eagles defense that played against Carolina in Week 6 will present major problems for Kirk Cousins and the Skins offense. But Washington is very adept at the screen and quick-hit game to the TE and RBs, and that is a problem for Jim Schwartz’s Philly defense. This is going to be one you want to watch as two of the NFC’s four best teams square off with first place on the line.

Eagles 26, Washington 21

College Games

Notre Dame 32, USC 28

Penn State 20, Michigan 12

Texas 33, Oklahoma State 27

Louisville 35, Florida State 28

Southern Miss 30, Louisiana Tech 28

Eastern Michigan 38, Western Michigan 35

Alabama 52, Tennessee 6