Last Week: 9-6, pushing the season forecast to 100-44. I am the 1995 Cleveland Indians revisited!
The big news of the week is Dick Jauron’s ouster as coach of the Bills. Speculation has already begun about his replacement, primarily centering on Mike Shanahan. I think Shanahan would be an ideal fit, because the team needs a take-charge leader with a defined vision and gameplan. But I’m not sold that owner Ralph Wilson will pony up the cash to afford him, not after eating so much on Jauron. The Bills have long been a team that gives up-and-coming assistants a crack (think Mike Mularkey, Gregg Williams), and I expect they follow that course again. Interim man Perry Fewell could fill that role if he can salvage this season, and that’s not out of the question. A sage little birdie told me former Giants coach Jim Fassel will factor into the mix too--if he wants to leave the UFL.
Thursday night game
Miami (18) at Carolina (17): Both teams will be missing key components, as Dolphins RB and Wildcat maestro Ronnie Brown will miss the game, while Panthers LT Jordan Gross is on IR. The short week exacerbates their absences, as the replacements won’t have as much time to get up to speed. Therein lies the key to this game. Miami can plug in Pat White to run the Wildcat and use more of Ricky Williams to pound the ball. Brown will be missed, because his running style is perfect for the Wildcat; White is faster and shiftier, and what makes Brown function so well is his patience and explosion.
Carolina has a problem in replacing their stud left tackle. Travelle Wharton will slide out from LG, and he’s somewhat capably played LT before; he’s probably Gross’ equal in run blocking on the edge. But then they have to replace Wharton inside, and that falls on Mackenzy Bernardeau, a second-year greenhorn who had never played an actual down as anything but a tackle-eligible in short-yardage packages. He might be able to pull a Chevy Tahoe (check the Youtube, it’s cool), but that doesn’t mean he’ll be able to handle the complex blitz packages Tony Sparano will throw at him.
Still, Carolina is all about the running game, and Bernardeau looked darn good in run blocking when thrown to the wolves, err Falcons, last week. The Panthers offense is quietly finding its stride, and Jake Delhomme just might be out of his turnover doldrums. In winning 4 of their last 6 games, Carolina’s defense has also rediscovered its swagger. I like their opportunistic secondary against Chad Henne at QB, and I like the home cooking in night games between fairly evenly matched teams. Carolina 20, Miami 17.
Games of the Week
Indianapolis (2) at Baltimore (9): One week after some epic heroics, Peyton Manning might very well need to dial up the heavens again. Baltimore is a team built to exploit the Colts’ weaknesses; they pound the ball with a physical OL and barrage of runners, their LBs can run and cover, and no safety in the league is better at making plays on the ball than Ed Reed. The Ravens will miss Terrell Suggs and his edge pass rush, but not as much as they’ll miss Haloti Ngata being 100%. The agile giant is expected to play, but he almost certainly won’t be his dynamic old self. The way to beat Peyton Manning is to get pressure in his face quickly, and without Ngata getting that the Ravens (nor any other team) simply cannot slow down Manning enough. Bonus X-factor that favors the Colts: the Ravens axed erratic kicker Steven Hauschka, and their stadium is not an easy place to just walk right in and make field goals, especially since the long-range weather forecast calls for rain and wind. Colts 28, Ravens 21.
San Diego (8) at Denver (11): This shapes up as the true test of the Denver Broncos--are they the rock-solid defense that surged out to a 6-0 record, or are they the leaky unit that has dropped three in a row? Not having Kyle Orton isn’t going to help matters, because Chris Simms looked very rusty and unable to handle pressure. San Diego has righted their ship, with their offensive line playing better and the defense tightening up against the run. Denver’s offense has sputtered even with Orton at full strength, as teams have figured out how to attack the OL and handle the shallow passing game. It says a lot to me that the bookmakers installed the Chargers as 2.5 point favorites on the road against a division rival that has already beaten them this year (34-23 in Week 6). You can chalk up some of that to continuing disrespect of what Denver has done, but in a “what have you done for me lately” society, the Chargers four wins in a row and Denver’s three losses in a row make that spread seem small. These Chargers have been here before and overcome bigger obstacles, and I trust their veterans to seize the opportunity to control their own destiny. San Diego 26, Denver 13.
Best of the Rest
Atlanta (16) at New York Giants (15): As bad as the Giants have struggled defending the pass, they’re still good enough up front to completely manhandle a one-dimensional offense. With Michael Turner out and Jerious Norwood the definition of fragile, Atlanta has little ability to pound the ball or set up play action for Matt Ryan. I also think Brandon Jacobs will come out of the bye week all fired up and ready to plow through a somewhat porous Falcons defensive line. Atlanta has a shot if they can force some turnovers--and Eli Manning just might oblige--but this Giants team has had their backs to the wall before and knows how to survive. These Falcons have yet to learn that. New York 24, Atlanta 10.
San Francisco (21) at Green Bay (13): If the two units that played last week meet here, the Packers will cruise over a 49ers team with no vertical passing game and that still makes far too many asinine penalties. But there is reason to believe the Niners can pull this off. Green Bay continues to struggle at running the ball and protecting Aaron Rodgers, and last week proved the SF defense has some playmakers to take advantage of mistakes and pressure. Frank Gore can turn any small crease into a long touchdown, and the Vernon Davis/Alex Smith mind-meld is still alive and well.
The Green Bay defense is the determining factor, and they really appear to be hitting their collective stride. With no Joe Staley to protect Alex Smith, the Packers should have little trouble getting pressure and forcing the action. Charles Tillman of the Bears blanketed Michael Crabtree with physical press coverage last week, and nobody plays that style better than Charles Woodson. The Niners offense is prone to sputtering, and I see a lot of tires spinning in the mud. The Packers vault back into the thick of the NFC playoff picture and simultaneously ruin the Niners chances. Green Bay 26, San Francisco 15.
Tennessee (20) at Houston (12): This game boils down to which team’s Johnson is bigger. The Titans have had loads of trouble slowing down Andre Johnson, and the superb Texans wideout has fresh legs coming off the bye week. Titans RB Chris Johnson is legitimately in the conversation as the best RB in the league, and his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield adds a dimension to the offense that really helps Vince Young. Chris Johnson has over 625 all-purpose yards the last three weeks, while Andre Johnson has 21 catches for over 350 yards and three TDs in the last two games against Tennessee. I think Houston will miss Owen Daniels, who took away over-the-top safety help on Johnson, and the Texans don’t really have a capable second banana in the passing game anymore to ease that pressure. Strange stat: the Titans have allowed the fewest sacks in the league, shocking for a 3-6 team that ranks near the middle in pass attempts. Vince Young with time is a dangerous asset. Tennessee 33, Houston 30 in what should be the most entertaining game of the weekend.
New York Jets (22) at New England (5): My quick take on the 4th & 2 controversy: the decision wasn’t as bad as the play called. And if it was Tony Dungy making that decision and not The Hoodie, you wouldn’t have heard one negative comment about it. You can bet the Patriots don’t want to be put in that position again. The Jets defense still hasn’t recovered from losing Kris Jenkins, and Mark Sanchez is no Peyton Manning. Patriots 31, Jets 17.
Upset of the Week
Philadelphia (14) at Chicago (24): By now you’re both seen and heard that Bears QB Jay Cutler is terrible in night games. I believe that’s merely a coincidence with his larger problem: 3-4 defenses. Because Chicago’s OL is subpar, 3-man front teams have only needed to blitz one other player (if at all) to get pressure. That means extra bodies in coverage that Cutler isn’t expecting. One of the biggest weaknesses of the inexperienced WRs in Chicago is their inability to operate in traffic. Philadelphia is a blitz-happy 4-3 team with taxed depth in the back seven. Those extra bodies won’t be as prevalent or able-bodied as what Green Bay, San Francisco, and Arizona threw at them. I think Cutler will find more success and his skilled tight ends should have a big day.
That leaves it to the Eagles offense to outscore the Bears. Philly has some OL woes of their own, and they’re really going to miss Brian Westbrook’s all-purpose ability on 3rd downs and in the red zone. So much of their offense is predicated on using him in the passing game or as a decoy to hold the safety and get receivers deep. LeSean McCoy is a good runner but he has yet to prove he can be that sort of threat in the passing game. Lost in the SF debacle was how well the Bears secondary played, and they always play better at home to boot. I still find the Eagles the most overrated team in the league, and I think this game will prove it. Chicago 27, Philadelphia 20.
Washington (25) at Dallas (10): Dallas is the much better overall team here, but the Redskins primary strength (the DL) faces off against the Cowboys’ primary weakness (the OL). That weakness is even shakier with the loss of RT Marc Colombo, as Dallas has precious little depth and will miss running behind Colombo. Washington has their own offensive line woes, though they still run block fairly well. Both these teams rank near the bottom in forcing turnovers, both teams rank near the bottom in penalties, and both teams have major trouble converting 3rd downs via the pass. That sets up a low-scoring, field position and special teams battle. Dallas fans, this is where your 2009 draft that most of you loathe finally pays off. The Dallas special teams are greatly improved and rarely make mistakes, and I’ll take Nick Folk kicking at home over Sean Suisham on the pressure-packed road. Dallas 16, Washington 10.
Seattle (23) at Minnesota (3): Both of Seattle’s starting CBs are suffering from concussions and RB Julius Jones is out with a chest injury. Even if Marcus Trufant and CJ Wilson play, expect them to be limited, especially in tackling. That’s a real problem against Adrian Peterson and the emerging stud WR Sidney Rice, who is as physical a runner after the catch as anyone. Seattle has been dreadful on the road, and the Vikings are too experienced and talented all over the field to slip up here. Minnesota 31, Seattle 17.
Pittsburgh (6) at Kansas City (27): What little chance the Chiefs had to pull the upset here got flushed away with the diuretic-related suspension of Dwayne Bowe, their only legit offensive weapon. These Steelers are smarting from their loss to the Bengals, and you can bet Mike Tomlin will find ways to fire up the offense. The Chiefs are the best of the 2-win-or-less teams by a pretty wide margin, but with their inadequate offensive line and not having the one receiver that could threaten the Pittsburgh defense, they stand little chance. Pittsburgh rolls to an early lead and then seals away a 30-20 road win.
Cincinnati (4) at Oakland (28): The indecision at QB for Oakland is a prime reason why the Raiders aren’t going to win this game. Bruce Gradkowski came in and moved the team, actually testing the secondary last week. His receivers clearly had more confidence in him. Yet coach Tom Cable continues to waffle over perhaps starting Jamarcus Russell, he of the inaccurate cannon and extraordinarily low football IQ. If Cable can’t see the problem there, he’s a lousy coach. If his hand is being forced by Al Davis, the Raiders are a lousy organization. Take your pick. The Bengals run to a 27-10 pasting that will make Darth Raider loot his own car.
Cleveland (32) at Detroit (31): The worst offense in NFL history meets one of the worst defenses in NFL history in one of the worst matchups in NFL history. I’m a Lions fan but also a Cleveland native and I have no desire whatsoever to watch this game. Detroit 16, Cleveland 6.
New Orleans (1) at Tampa Bay (30): New Orleans is going to miss CB Tracy Porter at some point, just as they are going to miss Darren Sharper at some point. That point is almost certainly not the Bucs, though I’ll give rookie QB Josh Freeman credit for being better than I anticipated. His five fumbles in 10 quarters are a concern, and no team is creating turnovers like the Saints. Even if the Bucs offense breaks out a little more, they stand little chance of outscoring New Orleans, which just might put up 50 against one of the worst defenses in recent memory. Saints 43, Bucs 24.
Arizona (7) at St. Louis (29): If you haven’t watched the Rams this year--and they’ve given you little reason to do so--do yourself a favor and try to catch some of this one. Steven Jackson will make it worth your while. The multi-talented RB is playing like a league MVP despite having almost no help, and his attitude and physical prowess give the Rams real hope for the future. The Cards have an emerging stud BR of their own in Beanie Wells, who has quietly averaged over five yards per carry with a steadily increasing workload over the last four weeks. His awareness in pass protection has improved as well, and that will help Kurt Warner pick apart an overmatched Rams back 7. Cardinals 34, Rams 17.
Buffalo (26) at Jacksonville (19): Buffalo fired Coach Dick Jauron this week, which led me to do a little research. How do teams fare the week following the in-season firing of the head coach? There have been 38 coaches fired (or replaced) in-season since 1970. In the first game, the replacements are a surprisingly good 15-23, which at 39% is a better winning percentage than the aggregate of the teams that fired them (31.3%). Three happened last year, and only Jim Haslett of the Rams won his debut game. The time the move really pays off is week 2, as 12 of the last 15 replacement coaches won game 2 of their interim regimes, including all three last season (Tom Cable and Mike Singletary were the others). These Jaguars are wonky but relatively healthy, a major problem for the Bills, who have an injury report that requires you to view multiple pages on the team website. Jacksonville leaps back into playoff contention in a strange AFC Wild Card race, moving to 6-4 with a 30-13 pasting of the sad-sack Bills. Hopefully owner Wayne Weaver keeps his fingers to himself...
Drinking in the Dorm Room games
Last week: 4-1, 36-19 on the season.
LSU 23, Ole Miss 20. Watch Jevan Snead’s draft stock plummet even further.
Oregon 29, Arizona 24. Basically a coin-flipper. My daughter’s first word was “duck”, so I’ll go with that.
Notre Dame 40, UConn 33. Expect the Irish to fire all their bullets in this one.
Stanford 31, Cal 27. Inset lame “band on the field” reference here.
And the one you’ve all been waiting for... Ohio State 39, Michigan 20. The Wolverines defense is that bad.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com
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Panthers wide receiver Steve Smith was in a minor car accident prior to Thursday's game against the Dolphins.
Leigh Anne and Sean Tuohy, Michael Oher's adoptive parents, revealed that he has not yet seen the movie 'Blindside', which is based on his personal life story.
When the Patriots gathered to watch film of their loss to the Colts, Bill Belichick let his team have it.
Bears general manager Jerry Angelo isn't happy with the team's play this season.
Chiefs wide receiver Lance Long has a fan in veteran teammate Chris Chambers.
Redskins running back Clinton Portis traveled to the University of Pittsburgh on Friday to have his concussion checked out.
Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton's status for Sunday's game against the Chargers won't be determined until right before kickoff.
The Eagles will be without running back Brian Westbrook for at least the next three weeks.
Jerry Jones wants to involve Felix Jones more heavily in the Cowboys' offense.
Michael Crabtree has been San Francisco's most targeted wide receiver in each of the four games he has appeared in, but he isn't laying claim to the title of number one receiver.
Bengals running back Cedric Benson is unlikely to play against the Raiders on Sunday.
Saints running back Reggie Bush has missed two practices this week to rest his left knee.
Ricky Williams rushed for 119 yards and scored three touchdowns, and the Dolphins beat the Panthers 24-17 on Thursday night for their fourth win in six games to get into the AFC playoff picture, according to an Associated Press report. 
Stefanie Spielman has lost the cancer battle she fought publicly and relentlessly for more than a decade.
The Minnesota Vikings have extended the contract of Head Coach Brad Childress. Terms of the deal were not disclosed.
Chris Johnson has 495 yards and six touchdowns in the three games Vince Young has started, an average of 165 yards per game. In the first six games, when Kerry Collins was the starter, Johnson averaged 99.3 yards while totaling 596.
Brian Brohm officially signed with the Bills Wednesday after passing a physical.
According to the Raiders Twitter feed, Tom Cable has named Bruce Gradkowski the starting quarterback for Sunday’s game against Cincinnati.
