2014 Record: 7-9

Current +/- wins per Bovada: 6.5

Overall: Cleveland is coming off its most successful season since 2007 with last year’s 7-9 record. That sentence pretty much sums up what football life has been on the southern shores of Lake Erie lately. The factory of sadness finally started to show a little hope with new Head Coach Mike Pettine and GM Ray Farmer trying to end the ridiculous management carousel which has dominated the Browns since their return to the league in 1999.

The defense is good enough to win. It’s a legit top 10 overall unit with depth and playmakers. The running offense is above-average between the line and an exciting mixture of talented young backs. Pettine appears to have a plan and a vision for both the short and long term, something which could not be said of most of his predecessors.

The primary issues are quarterback and the passing game in general. The Browns hope they’ve found a temporary answer in Josh McCown while holding the hand of young Johnny Football for another year. Special teams, which hurt this team more than advertised last year, should be better as well. They need to be, as the Browns play in a division where all three rivals made the playoffs a year ago.

Five Questions

1. Who is going to score touchdowns?

Putting points on the board has been an ongoing struggle for Cleveland. Wideout Josh Gordon has been the team’s top playmaker, but his star-crossed career appears over thanks to a litany of off-field issues. Now the Browns are searching for other players, both runners and receivers, who can get the ball into the end zone.

The running game offers the best potential. A pair of second-year backs, Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell, combined for 1280 yards and 12 touchdowns as rookies. That latter figure is a bit deceiving, however; five of those 12 TDs came in the first three games, leaving just seven for them over the final 13 weeks. It’s that relative drought which is concerning. Fortunately, Farmer did not stand pat with his promising young tandem.

Adding Duke Johnson from Miami FL in the third round is a great move. The nifty Johnson is a home-run hitter as both a runner and receiver. He complements the existing duo nicely, providing versatility and the explosive long speed missing. Crowell is more of a sledgehammer between the tackles, albeit one with excellent vision and quick feet. West also packs power in a smaller package but he’s better at sifting and churning on the edges of the line or bouncing a B-gap run with a quick cut. He forced 25 missed tackles, a great figure for a part-time runner. Neither has great open-field speed, but that’s where Johnson comes in. The rookie’s receiving skills will play a major role, too.

Getting center Alex Mack back and healthy can only help, too. Mack is arguably the best at his position in the NFL today. Here’s how much the Browns missed him after his gruesome broken leg…

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">CLE RB rushing TDs in 5 games started by Alex Mack: 8&#10;CLE RB rushing TDs in 11 games missed by Alex Mack: 8</p>&mdash; Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom) <a href="https://twitter.com/SigmundBloom/status/628373769384374276">August 4, 2015</a></blockquote>

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Mack has been cleared for full activity, and he unifies what could be the best offensive line in the league. Left tackle Joe Thomas is deserving of his multiple All Pro selections and he’s equally awesome as both a run and pass blocker. Joel Bitonio was a revelation at left guard as a second-round rookie, finishing as the 5th-highest graded guard in the league by Pro Football Focus. Right guard John Greco just missed top-10 status. Right tackle Mitchell Schwartz is the “weak link” and he’s nothing lower than an average starter. He’d be the best offensive lineman in St. Louis or Miami, two teams harboring playoff aspirations with higher projected win totals.

The much bigger concern is with the receivers. Cleveland scored just 12 passing TDs last year, the lowest in the NFL. Yes, the quarterbacks were terrible. They also didn’t get much help, and some of that help is now gone.

Gordon is suspended indefinitely. Top tight end Jordan Cameron and his gaudy 17.7 yards per catch left for the Miami Dolphins. The most promising returning receiver is Taylor Gabriel, who caught 50% of his targets and found the end zone once in 2014. He’s undoubtedly nifty out of the slot and has open field jets, one of the more exciting young players in the league. The former UDFA from Abilene Christian is also among the smallest NFL players at 5’7” and 167 pounds, and that’s in full pads after a day-long Golden Corral binge. He has one of the smallest catching radii I’ve ever seen and last year the quarterbacks often had trouble finding him. There’s a chicken/egg argument on the latter statement but until proven otherwise it remains an issue for Gabriel.

Hoping to spice things up, the Browns imported two of the blandest wideouts on the open market. Dwayne Bowe is best noted for being an underachiever in Kansas City. He looks the part with great length, rippling lean muscle and intensity in his eyes. It doesn’t often translate to greatness on the field. Take away a fluky spike season in 2010 where he scored 15 TDs and averaged over 16 yards per catch and his numbers are uninspiring. His four subsequent seasons look like this, on average:

That’s among the weakest showings for any so-called #1 receiver, though it almost exactly equals the Browns’ top wideout from a year ago. Compare Bowe’s figures to what Andrew Hawkins posted for Clevleand last year:

It’s almost cut and paste! The point here is that banking on Bowe to be an upgrade is a mistake. Will he make the group deeper and bigger? Absolutely, and given the iffy quarterbacking state that is not insignificant. But neither Bowe nor Brian Hartline (12 TDs in six full seasons) are dynamic presences which will help put more points on the board. The Browns now lack a tight end who would crack the top two on the depth chart on most rosters to boot.

Johnson’s addition means the Browns should score even more out of the backfield. Good. They’re not apt to improve much on last year’s league-worst passing TD production.

2. How good can this defense be?

To properly asses how good a unit returning all the important starters can be, first check out how they did last year…

- 1^st in QB Rating allowed

- 4^th (tied) in takeaways per game

- 9^th in points per game

- 8^th in yards per play

- 12^th in third down conversions

- 27^th in sack percentage

- 28^th in yards per carry

There is some good and some bad there.

The good news is the Browns didn’t lose anything which might turn those positive figures into negatives. Joe Haden still fronts a very good starting secondary, with Donte Whitner and Tashaun Gipson among the better safety tandems in the league. They lost Buster Skrine but added Tramon Williams at corner, which is a wash at worst.

Up front, Athyba Rubin left for Seattle but is more than adequately replaced by first-round pick Danny Shelton. The big man from Washington is an agile giant with a playmaking bent to his game. He’s not a great run defender, but look at that yards per carry ranking; the Browns weren’t good at it with a so-called run stuffing specialist in Rubin either. Adding veteran Randy Starks at end will help, as he’s a definite upgrade over disappointing Sione Fua. I love the pass-rushing potential of third-round pick Xavier Cooper, who like Shelton and Billy Winn can play in either an odd or even front with equal effectiveness.

Cooper and second-round pick Nate Orchard will be counted on to help bolster the pass rush. Because the Browns have so much depth at both spots, they should be able to handle situational roles early on and not get overwhelmed. It would be nice if Barkevious Mingo ever came close to living up to his lofty draft status as a pass rusher, but at least he’s quite good against the run. A healthy Phil Taylor can rotate with Shelton at the nose, which should keep the rookie fresher. He often struggled at Washington out of sheer exhaustion, never leaving the field. A rotation is the best situation for both. Depth also helps Desmond Bryant, whose 6 sacks from the end spot were pleasant but whose run defense was not.

The young linebackers need to step up a bit. Craig Roberston is a solid inside backer, but second-year Christian Kirksey needs to ramp up the intensity. He’s got great coverage skills but needs to be more north/south versus the run. The Browns have a nice blend with veterans Karlos Dansby and Paul Kruger, who is the team’s top sack threat. With Jabaal Sheard now gone, Tank Carder and/or Scott Solomon need to prove they can handle a more expansive reserve role.

Opportunism is key. Gipson is one of the league’s top ballhawks with 11 INTs in the last two years, two of which he’s taken to the house. He’s playing for a new contract, so the incentive is high for continued production. Kruger forced four fumbles with his strong chop move. Haden defended 20 passes, and it would be nice if he converted more than three into INTs as he did a year ago. Tramon Williams has averaged 4 INTs and 16 PDs over the last five years in Green Bay, where he played in a similar scheme. K’Waun Williams improved his ball recognition skills as his rookie season progressed.

This is an underrated unit overall, even if Browns fans tend to have an exaggerated opinion of Haden. All three levels have potential to be very, very good, and this is one of the deepest squads in the league.

3. Did they really waste two first-round picks in 2014?

On draft night in 2014 Cleveland toasted two first-round picks. Ray Farmer was beaming at the post-draft press conference in parlaying the #4 overall pick into #8 and #22 (and more) by absolutely swindling the Buffalo Bills, who took wideout Sammy Watkins. In return the Browns took cornerback Justin Gilbert and quarterback Johnny Manziel.

Fifteen months later, the smiles are turned upside down.

Manziel is more notable for drinking champagne while balancing on an inflatable swan, using a stack of money as a phone and finally entering rehab to (hopefully) put his wild child to bed once and for all than anything he’s done on the field.

I was at Manziel’s first-ever appearance, a preseason game in Detroit. The energy and excitement were palpable; Lions fans loved getting up to triple face value for preseason tickets thanks to the hordes of Browns fans willing to make the 2.5-hour drive to see their anointed franchise savior in action. There were more Manziel jerseys than Lions jerseys overall in Ford Field.

Then he took the field. Mr. Football was the worst QB on either team that night, notably inferior to teammate Connor Shaw or my personal whipping boy Kellen Moore. Not much really changed as 2014 played out. Manziel looked lost and overmatched in his limited action. There was no anticipation to his throws, no processing of the defense. His diminutive size hindered his ability in the pocket, and the escapism which stood out for Texas A&M didn’t work against the bigger/faster/stronger defenders in the NFL.

Now the former Heisman winner sits behind a journeyman veteran, future uncertain but certainly slight. The scary thing for Browns fans is Manziel is far and away the better of the two picks.

Gilbert has all kinds of dynamic athletic properties. He’s straight out of central casting for cornerbacks physically, long, fast and swift. Farmer and the Browns bit hard on the measurables, ignoring a decidedly uninspiring career at Oklahoma State.

The first corner taken in the 2014 draft, Gilbert wasn’t in many draft evaluators’ top 5 corners. He was my 7^th-ranked corner and he went 8^th overall. Anyone who watched even a token amount of his game film saw an athlete with very little clue of how to actually play football. NFL scouts openly told stories about how his OSU coaches dogged his work ethic and his penchant for ignoring film study.

Cleveland gambled that a rookie head coach and rookie defensive coordinator could turn all that athletic prowess into a functional football player. They lost that gamble. Gilbert never looked comfortable or confident and quickly fell down the depth chart. Fellow rookies Pierre Desir (4^th round) and K’Waun Williams (undrafted) flew past him and remain ensconced there as 2015 training camp progresses. Gilbert is no higher than 6^th on Cleveland’s current depth chart at cornerback, as 6^th round rookie Charles Gaines has been more impressive this summer. Were he not such a lofty draft pick, Gilbert would almost certainly be cut, or traded for a conditional late-round pick.

It’s bizarre that a team could so badly botch the first day of a draft and rebound so successfully on the other two days. Bitonio, West, Christian Kirksey and Desir--the other four picks--are all current or future NFL starters. I wouldn’t write off Manziel just yet, though my suspicion is he’ll need to leave Cleveland to ever find NFL success. Blowing two first-round picks really stymies the ceiling for this team. 

4. Can the special teams improve?

It doesn’t get much run, not even in Cleveland, but the special teams were quietly quite poor a year ago. Both specialists have been replaced, with the Browns taking the extraordinary step of trading for a punter.

At least said punter has a strong track record. Andy Lee is statistically one of the greatest punters in NFL history. During his San Francisco tenure Lee finished in the top 5 in gross yards per punt every season since 2007. Net yards is a bit of a different story, and it leads to Lee’s propensity for outkicking his coverage at times. That has been a recurring problem which got worse in what was a down year across the board for Lee in 2014. Still, the Browns haven’t finished in the top 15 in net punt yardage since 2010 and Lee has finished in the top 10 every year since ’10. That’s a tangible upgrade.

Kicking is a different story. Phil Dawson was consistently one of the best in the league, but since he left (ironically for Lee’s old haunt San Francisco) it’s been a misadventure. Billy Cundiff connected on just 75% of his field goals in 2014, including just two of six beyond 45 yards. He missed three in the “gimmie” range of 30-39 yards, which led to the Browns axing him in favor of Garrett Hartley, also now released.

There is a camp battle being waged for the job, though the odds strongly favor Carey Spears over Travis Coon. Spears, better known as Murder Leg, is a Cleveland (technically Mayfield) native out of Vanderbilt who has some impressive YouTube footage. He’s a weapon in covering his own kicks. Spears even wears Dawson’s old #4 to boot. He couldn’t win the gig in Philly a year ago but has the leg strength, as over 63% of his kickoffs in college went for touchbacks. As great of a story as Spears would be for Cleveland, he’s never made an NFL field goal. Expect him to win the gig but have a short leash.

Travis Benjamin can be electrifying as a return man, but last year his longest kickoff return was a paltry 28 yards. Gabriel had a 30-yarder in his four attempts. Benjamin’s 8.5 yards per return average on punts would have ranked 18^th had he qualified with enough attempts. Jordan Poyer, who has seen a lot of first-team reps in camp, averaged just 4.0 in his seven attempts a year ago, with a long of 8. The blocking in front of them has not been great, but good return man can make the first tackler miss. None of the Browns returners did that consistently a year ago.

5. How far can Josh McCown take Cleveland?

The Brian Hoyer experiment is mercifully over, and the Browns have wisely moved onto a different journeyman veteran to try and guide the franchise to the ever-elusive playoff berth. Josh McCown should be a major upgrade over Hoyer, whose uneven performances once led three playoff-bound franchises (New England, Pittsburgh and Arizona) to cut him form even being their backup in a period of six months.

The key word above is “should”. McCown is now on his seventh team since 2005, and he’s been up and down. Check his last two seasons:

McCown’s experience last year in Tampa Bay is very relevant, as it’s quite similar to the role he’s being asked to play here in Cleveland. As in Tampa, the Sam Houston State product is being asked to guide a young team brimming with some potential and not be the reason they lose games. He’s in front of a young QB who is generally out of favor but not a lost cause, Mike Glennon for the Bucs and Manziel in Cleveland. The Bucs legitimately harbored playoff visions heading into 2014, only to wind up the worst team in the league. McCown was part of the problem, a major disappointment with his negative TD/INT ratio, poor pocket presence and general lack of command of Jeff Tedford’s very different offense from what he’d thrived in under Marc Trestman in Chicago.

John DeFillipo’s scheme in Cleveland plays more to McCown’s strengths. The new OC has proven malleable in past stops in Kansas City and Oakland and is widely respected around the league for tailoring the scheme to the talent at hand. McCown is smart enough to run the offense with aplomb, and he should have much better protection and confidence in the line in front of him. Given the slim pickings on the open QB market, the Browns did the best they could in landing McCown. He’s the right man to bridge the situation for a year or two, until either Manziel is ready or someone else is brought in over him.

If Cleveland is getting the McCown from 2013 in Chicago, the only year where he has played substantial reps and not thrown more INTs than TDs, this is likely a playoff team. If they’re getting the Tampa Bay version from a year ago, Manziel will get the starting nod by Week 10 whether he’s ready or not and Cleveland will be drafting in the top 5. It’s that simple. 

Forecast: There is so much potential for these Browns. The schedule sets up nicely to get off to a strong start; the Browns should open 3-0 with games @NYJ and home for TEN and OAK. They have winnable road games in San Diego and St. Louis outside the division, too.

Then again, last year started 6-3 before the bottom fell out. The second half of the schedule is tougher in 2015 as well, but my sense is if this team starts strongly again, they’re not going to fade this time. I like the defense a lot, and as long as McCown manages the offense I think they will score enough to surprise a lot of folks. The AFC North is really loaded, so for the Browns to match last year’s win total they will need to steal a divisional game or two on the road.

It says here this is not a last-place team. I love the over on the 6.5-win total. Really. As long as McCown isn’t terrible or hurt, Cleveland finishes 9-7 in 2015. But if he’s bad again or misses significant time, these Browns won’t win more than 5 games.