Tier 1: Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck

Tier 2: Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees

Tier 3: Tony Romo, Matt Ryan, Peyton Manning, Cam Newton, Tom Brady, Eli Manning

Tier 4: Philip Rivers, Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill

Tier 5: Joe Flacco, Teddy Bridgewater, Colin Kaepernick, Sam Bradford, Carson Palmer, Jay Cutler, Andy Dalton

Tier 6: Jameis Winston, Derek Carr, Robert Griffin III, Alex Smith, Nick Foles, Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles 

* Players in bold are those players that I expect to significantly outperform their average draft position based on current ADP.

Analysis

We’ve got a deep pool of QBs once again this season. Andrew Luck has made his move into the top echelon of fantasy QBs, and Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger have moved up as well. I have Peyton Manning lower than most draft pundits, as I think his decline during the second half of last season was more than just injury related. Tom Brady’s ranking reflects the current four game suspension that he faces. He’ll move up if the suspension lessens. The quality of the names in tier 4 show the level of depth we have this season. Tier 5 has intriguing names as well, albeit with more risk attached. 

So how should you play the QB position on draft night? Unless great value presents itself with the top level players, I suggest waiting and grabbing your QB after you’ve filled the majority of your starting RB and WR spots. There’s great value to be had in tiers 3 and 4, along with solid backups in tier 5. So be patient at the QB spot on draft night, unless the top guys present too good of a value for you to pass up when you’re on the clock. 

Finally, a quick rapid-fire note as to why I think each player in bold has a good chance to outperform his ADP: 

Ben Roethlisberger: Up to this point, Ben Roethlisberger has been a better real-life quarterback than fantasy quarterback. With the Steelers having completed the transition from a defense-first team to an offensive juggernaut, Roethlisberger will pick up from where he left off in 2014 – letting the football fly. With Antonio Brown leading a talented group of pass catchers, which also includes star running back Le’Veon Bell, Roethlisberger will post his best season yet.

Eli Manning: After mediocre 2012 and 2013 seasons, we saw Eli Manning bounce back in 2014. Sure, a certain electric rookie wide receiver played a massive role in Manning’s rejuvenation. The arrow’s pointing back up for Manning with the talented offense he has around him. Also, the defense remains poised to give up lots of points, so Manning will be hurling the ball around for necessity. Manning will provide great value for his owners.

Joe Flacco: Joe Flacco has been solid for the Ravens since he entered the league in 2008, and he posted his best numbers last season. As a quarterback who has matured, Flacco is ready to continue his growth as a signal caller, and last year’s stats will be the new normal. Don’t go overboard on Flacco, as he’s a high end QB2 or a QB1 in deep leagues – so not an ideal weekly starter in 10-12 team leagues. But, he will outperform his draft position and is a terrific QB to target if you want a reliable option with a high floor.

Teddy Bridgewater: Teddy Bridgewater was my sleeper pick for QBs this season – I wrote about my reasons in detail in the Burning Questions – Sleepers/Busts article. In short, Bridgewater will take the next step this season as a second year QB, plus he will be aided by the return of Adrian Peterson and the emerging WR Charles Johnson. View Bridgewater as a high end QB2.