2014 Record: 7-9, second in NFC South

Current +/- wins per Bovada: 8.5

Overall: The 2014 season was a disappointment in New Orleans. They just missed the playoffs despite finishing 7-9, thanks to a minor drop in offensive efficiency and a major plunge in defensive effectiveness.

Now General Manager Mickey Loomis and Head coach Sean Payton begin their 10^th season together at a bit of a crossroads. They still have future Hall of Famer Drew Brees running the offense, though his supporting cast has changed and not necessarily for the better. There is still enough talent to run away and hide with the NFL’s weakest division, but there are also enough legitimate questions to see the Saints stumbling once again.

Five Questions

1. How much does Drew Brees have left?

If you listen to certain prominent loud voices in the sports media and social media, they will have you believe Drew Brees is no longer capable of greatness. They point to his down year in 2014, the first since 2010 where he failed to top 5000 yards or throw more than 33 TDs, despite leading the league in attempts by 31 over his nearest competitor. His yards per attempt fell from a 3-year average of 8.0 down to 7.5. There is no arguing the numbers were down and Brees’ own frustration level was visibly higher in 2014 than ever before.

Context is critical for those numbers, however, and the context of the decline--for both Brees and the Saints as a whole--really do matter. And the context paints a different story than the one being spun by the Brees doubters.

First, his pass protection up front declined precipitously. Right guard Jahri Evans went from being a near-elite player to a has-been seemingly overnight. Center Jonathan Goodwin proved a major downgrade from Brian de la Puente, a free-agency misstep which allowed far too much pressure up the gut on Brees.

Second, his receiving corps also fell off. All-Pro tight end Jimmy Graham wasn’t up to his typical standards, thanks in no small part to a dogging shoulder injury. Marques Colston wasn’t creating separation as well as in his earlier career. Rookie Brandin Cooks was lost after half the season to injury. Brees sorely missed Darren Sproles and his 71 receptions from 2013, too. Also factor in losing his QB coach in Joe Lombardi, who left to become Detroit’s offensive coordinator after years as Brees’ personal sounding board and consigliere.

In watching about half the Saints’ games from last season on NFL Game Rewind, I saw nothing to indicate any physical decline for the quarterback who will pass Dan Marino for third all-time in completions no later than early in Week 2 (he’s 30 behind--on exactly 900 fewer attempts). The arm is still very good. The vision and footwork are still better than average, particularly for a 6-foot tall 36-year-old. He struggled more than expected against pressure up the middle, but that’s a weak point for every QB not named Andrew Luck (who is actually better when pressured out of the pocket). There were more miscommunications between Brees and his young receivers, who were less open than normal and notably less so deeper down the field.

The signs point to a bounce back season for Brees, as if a season where he completed over 69% of his passes for 33 TDs and led the league in passing yards and finished sixth in QB Rating is some sort of huge negative. Graham is gone, and he will be missed. But picking up Max Unger from Seattle to plug the crater at center should help offset the loss. A healthy Cooks will certainly help; he’s got star potential. More chemistry with young receivers like Nick Toon and Brandon Coleman--a 6’6” sleeper from Rutgers who was once projected as a potential top 50 pick--should help as well. They’re not nearly as deep at the skill positions as in years past, but writing off Brees because of that could be a grave mistake. He’s still among the very best QBs in the league. He’ll need to be if the Saints are to get back to the playoffs.

2. Can Rob Ryan ever coach an effective defense?

For such a celebrated presence, Defensive Coordinator Rob Ryan has a surprisingly terrible track record of coaching defenses. Check out his results, courtesy of both ESPN Stats & Info and Team Rankings:

Essentially, Ryan has had one season where his defense ranked in the top half in points allowed and just two out of nine where his defenses weren’t in the bottom third of the league. Last season was abysmal, a toothless group which could not get off the field and often looked like 11 guys who had never seen each other before.

Ryan tends to fall in love with excess. As I’ve said about him in the past, Ryan wants every play to be a sundae with three scoops of different flavors with chocolate and caramel and nuts and whip cream and sprinkles and a banana with a cherry on top. The problem with that tasty concoction is that quite often the correct defensive call is plain vanilla.

In that spirit, Ryan and the coaches have promised simplification in 2015. Adding former Raiders coach Dennis Allen to handle the secondary and instill some sanity into the game plan will help. It sounds good in August, but I worry Ryan won’t be able to help himself once the fur starts flying for real. The first 3^rd and 7 where he calls zero coverage and rushes 8--something he has done multiple times--and all the talk of simple and stripped down are out the window. Count me as an extremely skeptical critic on Ryan’s defensive scheming until proven otherwise.

Rookie inside backer Stephone Anthony will certainly help. I’m quite bullish on his ability to make a strong impact right away. He could be a darkhorse Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate if Ryan blitzes him enough to net a handful of sacks. A return to form by safety Kenny Vaccaro would help a lot as well. Vaccaro was strong as a rookie but atrocious in his sophomore campaign. Early indications are positive, which can only help. He’s the sort of versatile piece Ryan desperately covets.

3. How much impact from the offensive newcomers?

The Saints sported one of the more familiar offensive casts over the last few years, but those times have changed. Jimmy Graham is gone. So are Pierre Thomas, Kenny Stills, and Ben Grubbs. These are not your older brother’s Saints on offense anymore.

The big changes are up front, where Unger takes over at center and Tim Lelito takes over at left guard. Unger has been somewhat spotty in pass protection in Seattle but was often a brutally effective hole opener for the run game. His veteran presence should anchor the line nicely. He’ll be relied upon to help out Lelito, who has been the top interior reserve the last two years. Undrafted out of Grand Valley State, Lelito is quite a stylistic contrast to the man he’s replacing in Grubbs. The new guy is quicker and very good getting into space, using his solid footwork to control angles. Grubbs was more of a street brawler. If Lelito flops, goliath Senio Kelemente will get the next man up treatment. He’s much more like Grubbs but often appears unable to move his feet while engaged.

First-round pick Andrus Peat could change things up front. The Stanford product opened training camp behind Zach Strief at right tackle, though they drafted him to be the long-term answer opposite the rapidly-improving Terron Armstead at left tackle. I cannot tell a lie, I was not impressed with Peat at Stanford. He’s got all the physical ability in the world but his mental approach is iffy, as I noted in this pre-draft piece:

Inconsistency is the primary knock, but it goes deeper than just not having his “A” game from week to week or even play to play. After seeing him in person vs. Notre Dame and watching him intently on the sidelines, he just doesn’t seem to care much about football. When the mood strikes him, Peat can be awesome. Yet he often plays apathetically and doesn’t seem at all bothered when he screws up. And his screw-ups are downright ugly; Utah’s Nate Orchard hung 3.5 sacks and two near-misses on him by simply trying harder and wanting it more as much as beating him with technique or athleticism.

If Peat proves up to the challenge early, Strief could kick to left guard and that would greatly help the pass protection up the gut. I suspect this will wait a year, however.

With Thomas gone, Mark Ingram is now the unquestioned top running back. Thomas led the Saints with a 4.9 yards per carry figure last year, well above Ingram’s 4.3 figure. Khiry Robinson, who hit 4.8 YPC, figures to get the majority of those reps now in New Orleans’ shared backfield. Then there’s former Bills speedster C.J. Spiller, who will immediately upgrade the receiving aspect. He’s also the primary outside runner, where he was very hit/miss in Buffalo. Fantasy geeks are likely to overvalue his touches here (my prediction is 120 carries and 55 receptions), but Spiller brings back the playmaking dimension largely lost when Sproles left town. Spiller has loads of talent but durability and “fit” questions have held him back. Maybe finally playing with a competent QB will help unleash his considerable promise.

The price to land Spiller was Stills, who was effective with his 63 catches at almost 15 yards per catch. Cooks will definitely help ease the void, but last year the plan was for the two of them to operate together in the 3- and 4-wide formations. Now it’s up to the oft-injured Nick Toon or unproven guys like Brandon Coleman or Jalen Saunders to fill that role. Josh Morgan fits in the mix somewhere, too. There is potential for this receiving group to be solid, though I worry about Marques Colston’s sliding fortunes.

They don’t have anything close to Graham at tight end anymore, and that will require Payton to adjust his offense accordingly. Ben Watson is an adequate #2 tight end, but now he’s top dog. Everyone else is a notch too high on the depth chart as well. There will be significant ripple effects from losing one of the preeminent and unique weapons in the game. New Orleans has some intriguing pieces to make it work, but how it comes together is a bit of a mystery. 

4. Will the pass rush be effective?

Junior Gallette had to go. That needs to be said. He was trouble with a capital “T”.

Alas, he was also a pretty effective pass rusher. Gallette produced 22.5 sacks over the last two seasons rushing off the edge, combining with end Cameron Jordan and his 19.5 sacks in the same period to form a formidable duo. Now there’s just Jordan, who often faced solo blocking because the offense was worried about Gallette on the other side, or even his perimeter at times.

Adding former Cowboy Anthony Spencer will help ease the loss…potentially. Since his 11-sack season in 2012 (with Ryan as his DC), a nasty knee injury has held him to exactly half a sack over the last two years. Spencer did remake himself a bit last year in Dallas as more of a situational run stuffer, but that’s not why GM Mickey Loomis signed him to a low-risk one-year deal. He’s now 31 and the knee has already kept him out of early camp practice sessions.

Perhaps rookie Hau’oli Kikaha is the answer. No player in college football made more plays behind the line of scrimmage in 2014 than the outside linebacker from Washington. The hirsute Hawaiian native is a relentless rusher around the edge with an outstanding ability to flatten his tack and close on the QB with speedy authority. He’s a smart tactician, fluent with his hands and football geometry. Kikaha is a perfect fit for the edge of Ryan’s hyper-aggressive 3-4. Unfortunately he’s had serious knee (two torn ACLs) and hip issues in the past, and he’s a real detriment against the run. Maybe a platoon of Spencer and Kikaha makes the most sense; they’re largely doing this in training camp already.

The line outside of Jordan offers almost no pass rush now that up-and-coming Tyrunn Walker is now in Detroit. Akiem Hicks netted two sacks a year ago. He’s positionally responsible but not more than a clean-up kind of rusher. Fifth-round pick Tyeler Davison offers potential but he’s a one-trick pony with his swim/spin combo. One to keep an eye on is undrafted rookie Bobby Richardson, a rolling sack of hammers with a great first step.

There is little depth at outside linebacker, not in terms of rushing the passer. Parys Haralson is a solid run defender. Kasim Edebali did score two sacks as an undrafted rookie from Boston College, and it’s possible he develops into a larger role. 

5. Was the down 2014 an aberration or a sign of things to come?

Everything set up perfectly for New Orleans last year. All three NFC South rivals were down, with none finishing higher than 7 wins. The Saints offense was relatively healthy and loaded. The hangover of Bounty Gate was a merciful bad memory. New additions on defense brought promise to an aggressive unit.

Five losses of a touchdown or less, including devastating collapses at Detroit and Cleveland early in the season, torpedoed all the promise. This was not a team which frequently could get out of its own way. New Orleans ranked 31st in third down defense, offsetting the aforementioned greatness in that metric on offense. While they were very disciplined at avoiding penalties, when they did commit them they got their money’s worth; the Saints ranked second in fewest penalties per game but just 17^th in yards per penalty. That means when they got flagged, it really hurt.

Another such case where quality, or lack thereof, trumps quantity is opposing completions. New Orleans ranked a respectable 12^th in completions per game allowed at just over 21. Yet they ranked 29^th in yards per completion, at 11.8. When opponents connected, they did so emphatically.

Some of those types of things are highly volatile from year to year. Some are just bad luck. The latter is difficult to account for, but I’m a believer in natural balance there. The former portends more positive developments in 2015. Take turnover margin, which is indeed variable from year to year and can turn around quickly. In 2014 only four teams gave the ball away more than New Orleans. Just four teams had fewer takeaways, too. Getting even one of those back to the league average should equal at least two more wins. Get both of them onto the positive side of the ledger and very good things should happen.

Forecast: My faith in an offensive resurgence, on the back of a better line and more efficient Brees, trumps my grave concerns about Ryan’s underachieving defense. I think the secondary produces more turnovers this year, and I really like the upgrade from Curtis Lofton to Stephone Anthony at linebacker. If this defense is even 20^th in points allowed, New Orleans handily wins double-digit games and is hosting a playoff contest. I love the way their late-season schedule sets up for a run; they could be favored in every game from Weeks 8-16, as the only road games are Washington, Houston and their QB issues, and Tampa Bay. As long as they split the divisional schedule, I like the Saints to win the NFC South by at least two games. Then again, I said that last year too. New Orleans finishes 11-5 and hosts a playoff game.